Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Invest 98L:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
How about we come together and agree that whether we agree about GW, politics, or any other subject or not; we all do love weather and tracking storms. Outside of these controversial subjects I know we have more in common with each other than we could possibly imagine. When we only focus on what divides us, the divide only widens. Would be nice if they had another blog here on climate change, GW, and the politics involved. Obviously there are us on both sides of the isle who would like to further this discussion. A side blog like that would keep politics from rearing it's head here. So would banning everyone who mentions politics on either side. We shall see.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I don't think people come to this blog to find out if they are under a tornado warning. That's what the NWS is for.

Friends and relatives of people who may come under a sudden derecho or tornado threat DO monitor the weather here.

Interfering with the weather signal with non-weather noise is something you wouldn't want happening to you or someone you care about who doesn't keep a close eye on weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Everyone just needs to calm down and focus back on the weather. There is an invest, wave off of Africa, and severe wx over the US.
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Quoting Chicklit:


Yeah, that Atl high is pretty well set in stone, isn't it.
Ayup... NOT good for the NW Bahamas and EC FL connection...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21570
Good time to head out. Take care, everyone.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




now that was vary rude
It was meant to be.

TAZ, have u been keeping the invest formation and bust list this year?

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21570
1074. Patrap
紅磡碼頭追風—韋森特(Chasing Typhoon Vicente@Hunghom Pier)



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Quoting BahaHurican:
Always good attitude in the tropics... lol and this blog... lol

I gotta say, this is the kind of nightmarish steering setup that one just cannot like.

As Pat often reminds, get your preps done if they aren't done yet...


Yeah, that Atl high is pretty well set in stone, isn't it.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


You're right. I can get my weather info from a professional and not a 10 year old kid.

Try to belittle me as you wish. When somebody comes on here and goes off on somebody that's trying to keep order on a forum, there's a problem.
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Quoting Patrap:


Im looking at some,but its sketchy at best.
Same here.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21570
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


You're right. I can get my weather info from a profesional and not a 10 year old kid.




now that was vary rude
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Quoting Chicklit:
On the eve before the weather channel takes over, the tropics are starting to become active again.
I am hoping for the best and expecting the worst.
Always good attitude in the tropics... lol and this blog... lol

I gotta say, this is the kind of nightmarish steering setup that one just cannot like.

As Pat often reminds, get your preps done if they aren't done yet...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21570
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Patrap:


Im looking at some,but its sketchy at best.

My sister's in Dhaka. Hopefully Vicente and its rains will have dissipated that far west.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


No. I am just sick of hearing about how global warming is definitely true, Barack Obama is the greatest president since Lincoln, MSNBC is truthful, and liberals listen to other people! My day has actually been just fine! How have you been?


Lol. I'm good. Try not to get sucked into the political machine. If everyone could discuss with a level head, it would be tolerable and fun to read. The more people get into an argument, the more radical they become with their statements. We all do it.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting redwagon:

Sex, politics and religion are not valuable on a WEATHER blog.

Plenty of other places you could take the sex, politics and religion that WOULD value it.

Please consider fast-forming dangerous weather and whether you might force the tornado warning signal out of sight for those who need it with your non-weather noise.


I don't think people come to this blog to find out if they are under a tornado warning. That's what the NWS is for.
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1061. Patrap
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... I think we graduated from this particular class already...

@ Pat... did u see any more recent news about impacts of Vicente on SE China? I mean besides on Hong Kong...



Im looking at some,but its sketchy at best.
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1060. Patrap
Hmmm, the force is strong in this one Yoda..



These are not the invests your looking for...

You can pass, move along..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On the eve before the weather channel takes over, the tropics are starting to become active again.
I am hoping for the best and expecting the worst.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


You know what, ignore me as well. You don't add anything to this blog.

Sex, politics and religion are not valuable on a WEATHER blog.

Plenty of other places you could take the sex, politics and religion that WOULD value it.

Please consider fast-forming dangerous weather and whether you might force the tornado warning signal out of sight for those who need it with your non-weather noise.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Maybe I should just move to StormW's blog... no wonder he left. smh

Nobody's stopping you.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmmm... I think we graduated from this particular class already...

@ Pat... did u see any more recent news about impacts of Vicente on SE China? I mean besides on Hong Kong...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21570
1055. Patrap
Quoting Tazmanian:





pat why do you keep reposting some in that 3hr old your not showing use any thing new


if your going too post some post some in that updates evere 1hr or so like this one





Taz, easy on the trigger sport, That Image updates Every 6 Hours so relax Dude.

Realtime Satellite Images From GOES


VIS = Visible, IR = Infrared, WV = Water Vapor
Images will appear in a separate window



CentAm IR 22:00Z UTC

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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Maybe I should just move to StormW's blog... no wonder he left. smh



storm W did not just left he was banned
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98L:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Patrap:









pat why do you keep reposting some in that 3hr old your not showing use any thing new


if your going too post some post some in that updates evere 1hr or so like this one



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Quoting flsky:

Be nice if you told us where....
SE PA.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21570
1049. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


You know what, ignore me as well. You don't add anything to this blog.


Bad day, bro?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting flsky:

Be nice if you told us where....

I did in a response to someone else quoting me

It was in Southern York County, Pennsylvania
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1044. Patrap




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haha i went to the store in the middle of my town (Stewartstown, PA) and it doesnt have power and neither does the 2-3 buildings next to it yet everyone else in town has power..... strange
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that wave that just came off Africa is by far the most impressive we have had, maybe we could see something from it
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1040. flsky
Quoting Doppler22:
Wow... i just got hit by a super nasty storm... i had a wind gust of 59mph extremely heavy rain and alot of thunder... two cracks of thunder in particular were so loud they shook my house and scared the crap outta me haha i wasnt expecting them :p

Be nice if you told us where....
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Severe Storms and Heavy Rain Wed and Thu
There is the threat for severe storms Wednesday and Thursday. The surge of warm air moving across Lower Michigan will bring the threat for severe storms ahead of the warm front during the afternoon Wednesday. This activity will likely be well east of US-131 and more likely east of I-75 during the mid to late afternoon. Then the cold front will push south across Lower Michigan early Thursday morning. A line of strong to severe storms is expected as that line moves south across Lower Michigan, reaching Southwest Lower Michigan north of Route 10 by midnight then slowly moving south to I-96 then I-94 during the early morning hours of Thursday. Finally a wave on the front will bring the threat of more thunderstorms and heavy rain during the day Thursday. Heavy rainfall is possible over parts of Michigan as these storms move through.


From the NWS in Grand Rapids
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...so the NHC is on board with GFS again...
How d'ya like that!?
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WOW it bad 40 to 50MPH and trees are down!!!!
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Quoting LargoFl:
........................................wow look at the SIZE of these hailstones that fell from a storm up in Canada...boy Those would put a hurting on your car huh
It depends, how big are they quarter, golfball, penny...
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1034. LargoFl
Quoting Pocamocca:

Then, help me out. Since our buddies Rush, Sean, and Glenn weren't around as we know them today, was the gullible, educated populace duped once again for having the next ice age scare shoved down our throats 30 years ago....
ok your friggin gonna start the POLITICS which is strictly banned from here..again huh...........poof goodbye
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37046

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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