Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Civicane49:

Regarding these kaleidoscopic wheels that are slipping off the west coast of Africa.
Sooner or later one of these nasties is going to slip through "the net of dismantlement" and create one hell of a problem for somebody, considering the guiding track set up from the soft underbelly of the Atlantic high and just look at all that heat in the GOM just waiting to be squandered into thunder heads and worse!
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Hmmm. Wonder if I will get some of this later in the evening.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 8246
1132. Grothar
Quoting Chicklit:
Annual tutorial on it's and its:

It's is always it is.
Its is everything else.

While it's valuable, this is free information for its relevance to credible communications.



You're all right, Chicklit. Or is it alright?
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Hmm... look like my internet is working again. I went through this last summer, and hope it's not going to be a pattern again this one.



ECar Twave...
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1130. Patrap
There are now 149 Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
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Quoting redwagon:

Sex, politics and religion are not valuable on a WEATHER blog.

Plenty of other places you could take the sex, politics and religion that WOULD value it.

Please consider fast-forming dangerous weather and whether you might force the tornado warning signal out of sight for those who need it with your non-weather noise.
The best internet source for real-time severe weather warnings is College of DuPage (IL) Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings. Warnings hit that web page at almost the same moment they hit NOAA weather radio. Please, anyone who wants real-time severe warnings, book mark the link above - and follow local NWS and SPC or local media for the official take.

Unlike a tropical cyclone, severe happens quickly. Anyone who comes to this blog for severe at or near the warning stage is doing themselves or others a disservice. A couple different WU bloggers have tried blogs that feature severe warnings, but, even then all the warnings did not get posted.

Perhaps TWC will feature a severe weather blog once they take over... or, perhaps... toast.

And, oh. Swx is swxy.

(T-52)
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Annual tutorial on it's and its:

It's is always it is.
Its is everything else.

While it's valuable for its relevance to credible communications, this is free information.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11035
Quoting Grothar:
Is it safe to come out and play now???




Has there been bother again from the disbelievers and infidels?
You can stop hiding under that melting iceberg now and return to the land of the true faith!
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What do you guys think 98L will be at 8pm?
A)Same(40%)
B)50%
C)code red 60%+
D)30% or less
or
E) TS Ernesto
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Ya Baha, I love to debate; I believe Jeff would want us to play devil's advocate for the truth. He wouldn't want misinformation shed here without a counter argument. He's been dealing with misinformation and a cover-up campaign to stop the science community for a very long time. Ideally they will get this blog back under control by banning this non constructive political bickering. When some come trolling comments to get bites; it's very hard to not take that shiny bait and argue for truth with great vigor. This all takes away from the majorities enjoyment of the site. It's not fair to everyone else.


This. It's hard to not try and stop misinformation. I know I have been a part of it today, and I should probably exercise a bit more control. So, I apologize for keeping the pot stirred.

So back to the weird weather, a line of storms fizzled out on its way to Orlando today and it looks like we are getting back to an abnormally dry spell for the next week with pops back around 20-30% lower than normal for this part of the year.
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I think one of the reasons we all like Grothar so much is that you couldn't get him to discuss politics if you poked him with a red hot stick. :)
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1121. Patrap
StormW is on FB
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1119. flsky
Quoting Tazmanian:



storm W did not just left he was banned


I used to have the web address for StormW's new site. Shoot, maybe I can look REAL hard and find it for this guy....
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1118. Patrap
wunderblogs directory
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I will check out the climate blog soon. Sounds like it's full of great info. Thanks you two for telling me about it's contents.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Grothar:
Is it safe to come out and play now???



In about 10 minutes, its been a crazy day here.
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Ya Baha, I love to debate; I believe Jeff would want us to play devil's advocate for the truth. He wouldn't want misinformation shed here without a counter argument. He's been dealing with misinformation and a cover-up campaign to stop the science community for a very long time. Ideally they will get this blog back under control by banning this non constructive political bickering. When some come trolling comments to get bites; it's very hard to not take that shiny bait and argue for truth with great vigor. This all takes away from the majorities enjoyment of the site. It's not fair to everyone else.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Grothar:
Is it safe to come out and play now???




I dont know. You tell me.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
98L has a decent structure, the current convection notwithstanding.


Yep. Hey Kori.
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98L has a decent structure, the current convection notwithstanding.
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1110. Grothar
Is it safe to come out and play now???



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Quoting Tribucanes:
How about we come together and agree that whether we agree about GW, politics, or any other subject or not; we all do love weather and tracking storms. Outside of these controversial subjects I know we have more in common with each other than we could possibly imagine. When we only focus on what divides us, the divide only widens. Would be nice if they had another blog here on climate change, GW, and the politics involved. Obviously there are us on both sides of the isle who would like to further this discussion. A side blog like that would keep politics from rearing it's head here. So would banning everyone who mentions politics on either side. We shall see.


Actually there is a Climate Change Blog here on the Weather Underground. The majority of the posts are filled with updated factual scientific information regarding the many aspects of Global Warming and the resultant impacts on Climate and Weather. The atmosphere on this blog is very collegial as well as informative. Yes, we are interrupted occasionally by trolls who are just baiting us with disinformation, but we treat them politely and with respect, often by providing them links to sources of information that may help them understand the science(s) behind GW and how the changing climate impacts weather-related events across the globe.

Please join us on occasion, whether to share information or just to "Lurk 'n Learn".
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Reminds me of something Grothar said a while back [RECENTLY, not 100 years back... ] about how a lot of the "kids" on here are more mature than some of the adults...


I would know :I
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It has began its DMIN Demise... It should have a reboot after the DMIN's full grasp has passed over and is further away. 1090.


Yup.
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If 98L can make some sort of "Comeback" with its convection over the next hour, we might see it go CODE RED.
If not... NHC will probably downgrade it to 30%.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Like +
Reminds me of something Grothar said a while back [RECENTLY, not 100 years back... ] about how a lot of the "kids" on here are more mature than some of the adults...

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Quoting Civicane49:

It has began its DMIN Demise... It should have a reboot after the DMIN's full grasp has passed over and is further away. 1090.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I'm not sure what is funnier about this post: the fact that you worked at the ACLU for a summer, or the fact that you just made up numbers to refute my post.


"Viewing the data for the period 2000-2010, the report by its own account shows there is no link between voter fraud in states and the need for stricter voter ID laws. The data shows that during the entire 10 year period, 21 states had only 1 or 2 convictions for some form of voter irregularity. And some of these 21 states have the strictest form of voter ID laws based on a finding of 2 or less convictions in ten years. Five states had a total of three convictions over a ten year period. Rhode Island had 4 convictions for the same 10 years. Taking a close look at the RNLA data shows 30 states, including the District of Columbia had 3 or less voter fraud convictions for a 10 year period."
Link


Sorry, I am in the business of sociology where we can't just make facts up. In the past election cycle there were less than a dozen instances of actual voter fraud. Working for the ACLU was a fine job, I did demographics, the same thing I would do if I worked for any business. I'm sorry your biases keep you on the attack without facts, enjoy your evening.
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The invest is shriveling.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11035
1031 Pocamocca: ...the gullible, educated populace duped once again for having the next Ice Age scare shoved down our throats 30 years ago...

There was no "Ice Age scare" 30 years ago. There was 1 (count 'em, 1) research paper on the cooling effect of sulphates on the atmosphere IF the amount of sulphate pumped into the air by industry were increased by a factor of 4 with no increase in CarbonDioxide levels.
Resulting in a huge mass of immediate objections cuz nobody could figure out how industry (ie any profit-making enterprise) could increase the amount of sulphate injection without increasing the amount of CO2.

There was 1 (count 'em, 1) research paper on NuclearWinter... which led to a series of computer simulations concluding that it would not cause an IceAge but rather a Year without Summer or three.
Unfortunately nobody held a nuclear war to test whether Sagan et al or the later simulations was correct.

The "Ice Age is Coming" articles were media-driven doomsday scenarios similar to their recent coverage of the "Great Yellowstone MegaEruption", the "Giant Asteroid Strike", the "Cumbre Vieja MegaTsunami", the "Mayan End of Times", etc ad nauseum.
1 scientist apparently made an off-hand statement that "an Ice Age is overdue" -- never explaining any causal factor that made him think so; let alone daring to expose himself to his peers' ridicule by publishing -- and a major media outlet ran with it. And since one major covered it, the rest of the sheep hadda follow.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


That's funny because all Global Warming is is politics. There is absolutely no real scientific proof behind global warming. It is a figment of Al Gore's imagination. BTW Al Gore wants to be known for inventing the internet, not global warming.

Now this is an interesting theory!
We shall eagerly await all the proofs that global warming is not happening, and is a figment of somebody's imagination.
Meanwhile we would like to ask for volunteers from all believers that global warming is not happening who would like to spend the rest of the summer on any point of the Arctic ice sheet in order to prove that its existence is unaffected by anything climatic or man made.
We will condescend to supply them with an inflatable dingy and radio just in case they are mistaken in their beliefs.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Try to belittle me as you wish. When somebody comes on here and goes off on somebody that's trying to keep order on a forum, there's a problem.

Like +
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Something to notice so far:
All of the storms that have formed this year, have formed above 25N.
With this said... you can already take note that this year will not be a year that we see a LARGE amount of storms come out of the Deep tropics...
The tropical wave train should be the only thing created storms down there... and only about 30% of them will probably become something more
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Thanks, Taz. I can't believe we haven't had 10 invests in the ATL yet....
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


That's funny because all Global Warming is is politics. There is absolutely no real scientific proof behind global warming. It is a figment of Al Gore's imagination. BTW Al Gore wants to be known for inventing the internet, not global warming.


Global warming being man made or not makes no difference. Surely at the end of the day, we shouldn't be polluting our world, causing extinction of species and using up all it's resources in such a hedonistic way. I don't fully believe it's ALL man made, but I do believe we should do what we can to keep the earth a safe and clean place. I was dreaming 20 odd years ago of a house off the grid, before there was the green movement...my thinking was having power when there were huge outages (growing up in the VERY hot desert and happening at peak times of roasting) and not having to pay some giant, profit oriented company for my electricity. But if it helps the environment in general, an added bonus. Whether global warming or not, how could it be better or a good thing to pollute our world so badly?
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Quoting Civicane49:
98L:


If 98L fires another ball of convection before 11 pm edt tonight... We will get Ernesto out of this...
Its just one of those "Consistency" situations that the NHC has to wait out and see if 98L will last.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
How about we come together and agree that whether we agree about GW, politics, or any other subject or not; we all do love weather and tracking storms. Outside of these controversial subjects I know we have more in common with each other than we could possibly imagine. When we only focus on what divides us, the divide only widens. Would be nice if they had another blog here on climate change, GW, and the politics involved. Obviously there are us on both sides of the isle who would like to further this discussion. A side blog like that would keep politics from rearing it's head here. So would banning everyone who mentions politics on either side. We shall see.
The problem is that it's easy to get "teased" into the discussion, especially when it's slow. While I know we didn't do our best this afternoon, I think we've been better with the OT discussions than we have in the past, so perhaps we can hope that after today we'll be able to dial the other stuff out.

Meanwhile, I'm just hoping we get Ernesto before next Tuesday, so I can be right about one storm in July... lol
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Quoting BahaHurican:
It was meant to be.

TAZ, have u been keeping the invest formation and bust list this year?





yes


E PAC


roud 1

90E be comes Aletta

91E bust

92E be comes Bud

93E bust

94E be comes CARLOTTA

95E bust 1st time bust 2nd time

96E be comes Daniel

97E be comes Emilia

98E be comes FABIO

99E bust


round 2


90E bust




roud 1

90L bust

91L bust

92L bust

93L be comes Alberto.

94L be comes Bearly

95L be comes Chris

96L be comes DEBBY

97L bust

98L ?

99L ?



round 2

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Ayup... NOT good for the NW Bahamas and EC FL connection...


eek, that's blasphemy.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11035
Quoting Tribucanes:
How about we come together and agree that whether we agree about GW, politics, or any other subject or not; we all do love weather and tracking storms. Outside of these controversial subjects I know we have more in common with each other than we could possibly imagine. When we only focus on what divides us, the divide only widens. Would be nice if they had another blog here on climate change, GW, and the politics involved. Obviously there are us on both sides of the isle who would like to further this discussion. A side blog like that would keep politics from rearing it's head here. So would banning everyone who mentions politics on either side. We shall see.
There is a climate change blog, just look under blogs and then you find climate change. Nice thing on what holds us together/ pulls us apart.
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I can see Vicente being a nightmare. I was surprised when I came in last night and it had strengthened that much from when I'd left the house...it was one of those, WTF? moments. I haven't been able to find too much about impact from it though.

Not sure either invest is going to make anything of itself at this point...geesh, how long does the eastern Pacific one need?! the Atlantic one, if it formed wouldn't last long anyway, too far in the colder waters. Fingers crossed on that big wave off Africa though.
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Invest 98L:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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