Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Actually there is a Climate Change Blog here on the Weather Underground. The majority of the posts are filled with updated factual scientific information regarding the many aspects of Global Warming and the resultant impacts on Climate and Weather. The atmosphere on this blog is very collegial as well as informative. Yes, we are interrupted occasionally by trolls who are just baiting us with disinformation, but we treat them politely and with respect, often by providing them links to sources of information that may help them understand the science(s) behind GW and how the changing climate impacts weather-related events across the globe.

Please join us on occasion, whether to share information or just to "Lurk 'n Learn".


Anyone who disagrees with global warming is a troll? And liberals are supposedly open-minded people...

There were afternoon thunderstorms in Houston today.
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Dean07: I saw on yahoo just a week ago, how these scientists cut open trees that were THOUSANDS of years old and scientists concluded that it was hotter on Earth back in Roman Times, than it is now...
1172 Grothar It was, why do you think we wore sheets?

Eliminates the bother of having to make the bed every morning just to mess it up later.
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1181. ncstorm
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CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A 1006 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER COSTA RICA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

Looks like nigel might get some rain tomorrow... dunno if it'll last to the Caymans, tho.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
there's a new burst of convection over 98L so it's not done yet, I think we'll get Ernesto tomorrow

I say not the 11 pm. But the 5 am.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
The best internet source for real-time severe weather warnings is College of DuPage (IL) Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings.

And, oh. Swx is swxy.

(T-52)

The demand for real-time weather from novices from TWC is going to overwhelm the native WU people starting tomorrow.

Having a parallel blog that allows political discourse is the way to go. Easier to zap political types on the main WX blog, since they were provided another venue and insisted on cluttering the non-political one.
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Quoting Grothar:


It was, why do you think we wore sheets?

lol
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting all4hurricanes:
there's a new burst of convection over 98L so it's not done yet, I think we'll get Ernesto tomorrow


I hope not. A lot of this stuff wouldn't have been named 30 years ago. These high latitude spinups that last for two days just generally add false inflation to the numbers (as in deceptively making the season appear more active than it is, not that the hurricane center necessarily names them for this purpose). There are plenty of other avenues for marine forecasts besides official advisories on a brief tropical cyclone. In many cases these sorts of classification seem pointless.
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there's a new burst of convection over 98L so it's not done yet, I think we'll get Ernesto tomorrow
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1172. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I saw on yahoo just a week ago, how these scientists cut open trees that were THOUSANDS of years old and scientists concluded that it was hotter on Earth back in Roman Times, than it is now...


It was, why do you think we wore sheets?
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1. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAVE DIMINISHED.
THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH MPH AND IS LIKELY
PRODUCING WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES COOLER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

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1169. Skyepony (Mod)
Even with the recent shift in Arctic winds I have a hard time seeing 2007 holding it's record for least sea ice extent.

Here is late Sept 2007..melts up to pink & purple..


Today..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
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.
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90E is down to 40%.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey! You made me take my head out of the sand for THIS????

High!
I am becoming gravely concerned, possibly alone in my concernment about just how hot the SST's of the central and Western GOM are becoming!
We might have to lobby for a new colour for the SST's?
I mean that drab shade of puse pink is not really becoming of what might later become history!
I would opt for a delicate shade of mauve to depict SST's above 95/F a sort of tranquilising effect for their true significance and even though we may rarely see them (at least in the near future,) they would at least alert us to the fact that something is probably going badly wrong!
Then again we could have a vote on the new colour of 2012, if anybody can be bothered to set up a poll of popularity? It would be nice and becoming to have a contrasting colour as its a lot easier to see than that boring puse pink.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
What do you guys think 98L will be at 8pm?
A)Same(40%)
B)50%
C)code red 60%+
D)30% or less
or
E) TS Ernesto

D as of right now...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Remains at 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAVE DIMINISHED.
THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH MPH AND IS LIKELY
PRODUCING WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES COOLER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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1161. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Someone posted something about Mohenjo Daro on the last blog. Really neat stuff..Link....This looks good for something that is almost 4500 years old.


I went there and it was a fascinating and highly developed culture. What little is known about it is fascinating. It explains a lot of the customs that are still found in the region. They had a very sophisticated social system.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The truth is. Noone knows what the climate is going to do, exactly. We have a shady idea of it... but noone can really know... unless youre are millions of years old. *Points to Grothar*

I saw on yahoo just a week ago, how these scientists cut open trees that were THOUSANDS of years old and scientists concluded that it was hotter on Earth back in Roman Times, than it is now...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1107 Pocamocca: [inre] 1098 Thanks for illustrating my point so eloquently.

Au contraire. Your point was that there was an "Ice Age scare 30years ago".
And mine is that your belief is wholely made up outta thin air. There was no scare: the media likes to "tell ghost stories around the campfire" to drive up circulation, and nobody cared except on a "well, this is entertaining" level.

Your assertion is 'bout like believing they opened up a DinosaurPark back then too, and hadda shut it down due to eaten tourists.
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The 18Z GFS did not show any tropical development across the Atlantic from either wave.

Let's see what the 00Z GFS run shows. Starting to think it was just a ghost storm on last night's run..
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:

The truth is. Noone knows what the climate is going to do, exactly. We have a shady idea of it... but noone can really know... unless youre are millions of years old. *Points to Grothar*
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Up the mountain we go.

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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


*Sigh* Galveston, just make a post about this off the main blog and we will comment from there. I understand your views and respect what you are trying to do, but your fighting a losing battle here at a pro-GW site.
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1154. Grothar
The wave does look good, but it will probably be a few days before they declare anything. It should be moving into a more favorable are in about 3 or 4 days. Shear is expected to be lessening in the mid-Atlantic and it should be moving in a west to WNW movement. Even though the high is strong, there should be some lifting on the western periphery by the time it gets to the Antilles. I would therefore expect it to be North of the Antilles.

As you can see, the current storminess over Central Africa looks very impressive as well. We have two nice blobs to look at now.







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98L:

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Quoting hydrus:
Someone posted something about Mohenjo Daro on the last blog. Really neat stuff..Link....This looks good for something that is almost 4500 years old.
I've noticed that the best preserved of these sites seem to be the ones in areas of desertification. The Central American sites of the Mayan heyday look a lot less... pristine.
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90E:

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Quoting aspectre:
1031 Pocamocca: ...the gullible, educated populace duped once again for having the next Ice Age scare shoved down our throats 30 years ago...

There was no "Ice Age scare" 30 years ago. There was 1 (count 'em, 1) research paper on the cooling effect of sulphates on the atmosphere IF the amount of sulphate pumped into the air by industry were increased by a factor of 4 with no increase in CarbonDioxide levels.
Resulting in a huge mass of immediate objections cuz nobody could figure out how industry (ie any profit-making enterprise) could increase the amount of sulphate injection without increasing the amount of CO2.

There was 1 (count 'em, 1) research paper on NuclearWinter... which led to a series of computer simulations concluding that it would not cause an IceAge but rather a Year without Summer or three.
Unfortunately nobody held a nuclear war to test whether Sagan et al or the later simulations was correct.

The "Ice Age is Coming" articles were media-driven doomsday scenarios similar to their recent coverage of the "Great Yellowstone Eruption", the "Giant Asteroid Strike", the "Cumbre Vieja MegaTsunami", the "Mayan End of Times", etc ad nauseum.
1 scientist apparently made an off-hand statement that "an Ice Age is overdue" -- never explaining any causal factor that made him think so; let alone daring to expose himself to his peers' ridicule by publishing -- and a major media outlet ran with it.
And since one major covered it, the rest of the sheep hadda follow.















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1146. hydrus
Someone posted something about Mohenjo Daro on the last blog. Really neat stuff..Link....This looks good for something that is almost 4500 years old.
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Just finished my Atlantic Tropical Update

"Atlantic Basin ready for Take-off"

Read it. Throw up on it. Skim it.
I Don't care.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129


Whoop! I am in the area for severe storms! Just after last week's round took out the oldest bur oak tree in the state of Tennessee. Hopefully no damage, just excitement.

P.S. I had to proofread and change some things in my typing to make our grammar buddies out there happy. ;)
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Regarding these kaleidoscopic wheels that are slipping off the west coast of Africa.
Sooner or later one of these nasties is going to slip through "the net of dismantlement" and create one hell of a problem for somebody, considering the guiding track set up from the soft underbelly of the Atlantic high and just look at all that heat in the GOM just waiting to be squandered into thunder heads and worse!
Hey! You made me take my head out of the sand for THIS????
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1141. flsky
http://www.stormw.com/
Here ya go. See ya later
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Quoting Naga5000:


This. It's hard to not try and stop misinformation. I know I have been a part of it today, and I should probably exercise a bit more control. So, I apologize for keeping the pot stirred.

So back to the weird weather, a line of storms fizzled out on its way to Orlando today and it looks like we are getting back to an abnormally dry spell for the next week with pops back around 20-30% lower than normal for this part of the year.
I was just looking at that storm right over the Everglades... been a while since I've seen that... lol...
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90E wont develop
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 10N118W. THIS LOW IS SITUATED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N116W TO THE LOW. MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TO THE S OF
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF
LOW CENTER. THE 0520 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF SOME 30 KT WIND BARBS TO THE E OF THE LOW
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING... AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THERE IS NOW A MEDIUM
PROBABILITY THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL IS
BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
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Quoting Grothar:
Is it safe to come out and play now???




Yes, as long as you play nice with the other children and pick up your toys before you go to bed. Also, remember to obey your great great grandchildren because they know what's best for you!!
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Quoting Patrap:
There are now 149 Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.



Funny you mention that, I was just thinking the other day "Geez" only 4 months till Christmas.
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You can see the mcs started at the Iowa/MN border and dissipated at the TN/NC border.
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Quoting Civicane49:

Regarding these kaleidoscopic wheels that are slipping off the west coast of Africa.
Sooner or later one of these nasties is going to slip through "the net of dismantlement" and create one hell of a problem for somebody, considering the guiding track set up from the soft underbelly of the Atlantic high and just look at all that heat in the GOM just waiting to be squandered into thunder heads and worse!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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