Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China
Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.
Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.
Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)
A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.
Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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it's a 1007mb low. it will be moving into cooler waters. IMO 98L won't make it.
Beginning of the month:
We can say bye to 98L and 90E.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20
MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
0Z Euro
TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
129 AM HST WED JUL 25 2012
TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0121 AM HST 25 JUL 2012
COORDINATES - 9.8 SOUTH 160.2 EAST
LOCATION - SOLOMON ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 6.6 MOMENT
EVALUATION
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me
Is there anyone home?
Good Morning. Looks like the gang is still here this AM.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012
CORRECTED LOCATION
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Only other feature that catches my eye this morning is that mini blob firing up in the NE Gulf south of the Florida Big bend. Baroclinic at the moment due to the proximity to the ULL Tutt cell over the Florida Big Bend Coast.
250 mb ULL
Link
Persistence is key; I just updated my entry below as you posted. It's baroclinic at the moment due to the ULL in the area.
The Nogaps is still trying to develop the african wave..
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO SRN MO/NRN
AR...
...NEW ENGLAND/OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRINCIPAL AGREE THAT AN EARLY DAY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS UPSTATE NY
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD PROVE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A CORRIDOR
OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ATTENDANT SFC LOW. GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/SFC LOW AS IT
SPREADS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ALLOWS FOR A MORE NWD EXTENSION OF
TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF SRN ME THAN THE NAM. THIS EARLY ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE SOME HAIL BUT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THURSDAY WILL OCCUR
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES MAY
SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S BY 18Z ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...LIKELY AS
FAR NE AS WRN PA WITH NEAR 90 POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF WRN NY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE ATTAINED WITH
THIS INTENSE HEATING AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT THAT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...500 MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
40-50KT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY AND ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE
AS CONVECTION MATURES. AS A RESULT THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE COMMON WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AN AREA FROM SRN OH
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN PA INTO CNTRL NY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
FARTHER SW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN IND/IL INTO SRN
MO WITHIN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
30KT IS EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CERTAINLY ORGANIZE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WITHIN A FLOW REGIME THAT WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL LINE SEGMENTS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. LOWER SEVERE PROBS
WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF OK/NWRN TX WHERE PW
VALUES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION FAVOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BUT THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME THUS WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBS.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
705 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WITH AXIS WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NORTH OF THIS AXIS...A WEAK TUTT MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE TUTT ALOFT IS A SHALLOW FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT IT IS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN THIS PATTERN...THE PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW MOISTURE CONTENT VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT LOW LEVELS... EASTERLY TRADES PREVAIL...WITH 850 HPA WINDS OF 10-15KTS.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TUTT TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE...IS TO RETROGRESS INTO HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IN THIS PATTERN...UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 60 HRS...WITH MODELS SHOWING A STRONG CAP INVERSION AND LOW PWAT AMOUNTS. THIS IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...AS THE TUTT PULLS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INTENSIFIES...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START TO SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. MODELS THEN AGREE ON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CLUSTERING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
LATER OVER THE WEEKEND...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE AS A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THIS FEATURE AS IT ENTERS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY EVENING...AND EXPANDING INTO THE USVI/PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. DURING THAT PERIOD PWAT WILL PEAK AT 40-45MM...FAVORING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
Link
You want something big not a small disorganized system that takes forever to form. I agree a CV system is what this Daddy likes as well!
Same here. A long tracker makes you glued to computer.
I give up with the NHC. I mean really 98L should have been Enresto last evening. This wave near the Cape Verde Islands is one to watch in my opinion as it could sneak up on people in the Leeward islands and PR next week.
So the hunt is still on for Ernesto. It's starting to look like it's going to be another wimpy Ernesto like '06...
What's that south of Nova Scotia? And is 98L next to what I'm seeing?
Think that area might expand? I am literally right outside of the 30% chance
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