June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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could impact the N Islands as a hurricane
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
324 has a 994mb storm impacting the Lesser Antilies
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Quoting JLPR2:


That looks a little too close for comfort. Thank goodness it is so far out, 312hrs isn't exactly reliable. :D


What a timing to start August with a boom. At least we will be tracking something after the very quiet period after Debby. CaribBoy,where are you located?
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i'm excited but i know i'l be disappointed soon lol
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
I've got issues to attend to. Shoot me a kite if you get the chance Kori. Be back later, hope all is well for you weather lovers. Even those on the Right coast. :)
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Quoting Civicane49:
00z GFS 312 hours:



That's a bit far south for my taste.
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995 at 312
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Quoting Civicane49:
00z GFS 312 hours:


That ridging HAS US Written ALL OVER IT.
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1110. JLPR2
Quoting Civicane49:


That looks a little too close for comfort. Thank goodness it is so far out, 312hrs isn't exactly reliable.
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997 at 276 hrs
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Was worried about you Koritheman. Never seen you gone for such a stretch. What's the skinny? You were going through one of the most important moments of your life when you last left us. While I agree with you 70% of the time, the other 30%; I'm guessing we couldn't agree less. Never mattered to me, everything I've ever said to you still stands. The best brother!
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Quoting Civicane49:
00z GFS 312 hours:



OMG ISLAND STRIKE!
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1106. ncstorm
Hurricane..

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Quoting wxchaser97:
999mb TS at 252 hrs, there is light at the end of the tunnel.


OMFG I'm sweathing
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00z GFS 324 hours:

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Quoting CaribBoy:


Lol I can't be more agree : "IF ITS NOT A GHOST STORM"


Well, if the GFS is any indicator, we'll have a couple days to sit around before the second wave pops off the coast.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
1003mb TS at 228 hrs and its still strengthening


hmm turning north at bit
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Quoting wxchaser97:
1003mb TS at 228 hrs and its still strengthening

CHOO CHOO! Cv hurricane?
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999mb TS at 252 hrs, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Wow,what a way to begin August,of course if it occurs in reallity.


Lol I can't be more agree : "IF ITS NOT A GHOST STORM"
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
1003mb TS at 228 hrs and its still strengthening
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Quoting wxchaser97:
TS at 192 hrs


Wow,what a way to begin August,of course if it occurs in reallity.
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CHOO CHOO!
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Quoting wxchaser97:
TS at 192 hrs


Wow at still along 10N!!! Could be very interesting.
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204 hrs
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Could the first wave develop into something even a invest or not?
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
TS at 192 hrs
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Still strengthening.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
By 183hrs it looks like we're losing CV-1.

CV-2 is still holding strong though.

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Strengthens into a tropical storm by 180 hours.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
174 hrs at 1007mb
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168 hrs
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Quoting CaribBoy:


Lool it reminds me Ana and Bill from 2009!
Not as strong as bill but same setup and strength same or stronger than Ana for 2nd t-wave.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Why are we still using such primitive 2-d mapping systems for weather and climate data when computers are capable of rendering far more accurate globe maps which don't distort the size of anomaly features from latitude to latitude?

It's a curiosity to me that we can take a highly advanced computer information system and turn it back into a primitive centuries or millennium old mapping technology for display, instead of rendering an accurate map.

I'm sitting in front of a machine that can do 10 billion calculations per second, yet I'm still looking at a 360 year old form of 2 dimensional representation for a spherical planet...
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The second wave definitely becomes a tropical depression by 168 hours.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
00z GFS 174 hours:

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162 hrs, a TS is here
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
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156 hrs
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Lool it reminds me Ana and Bill from 2009!
I agree.
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Quoting rocketboy108:
Does anyone know,...what the lowest pressure attained by the Typhoon VICENTE. I followed it only casually,...then was stunned to see it had blown up suddenly to a Cat 4 at land fall. Since I was not following it closely,...and the weather-underground map shows it jumping from Cat 1 directly to cat 4,...I was naturally curious to know what the rate of intensification was,...did it set a record or anything? How fast,...did it explode from 1 to 4,...and what minimum pressure did it achieve??
ANyone know???

Matt

While offically it went from cat1 to cat4 in a very short time, ADT suggested it was stronger than a cat1 in the first place. Even if you go just by offical numbers this is not a record.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Quoting wxchaser97:
Hey Kori, good to see ya!
132 hrs, the 1st low still closed with 1012mb and next wave coming of Africa with 1008mb pressure.



Lool it reminds me Ana and Bill from 2009!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
Quoting JLPR2:
Seems the next days are going to be interesting, whether they develop or not, these next waves seem like good discussion material.


sure
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm baaaack. Story to follow.
Hey Kori, good to see ya!
132 hrs, the 1st low still closed with 1012mb and next wave coming of Africa with 1008mb pressure.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Quoting JLPR2:


126hrs, down again to 1010mb and a second low forming at the African Coast.


...and turning WNW :(
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm baaaack. Story to follow.


Hey Kori!

How are you doing?
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1071. JLPR2
Seems the next days are going to be interesting, whether they develop or not, these next waves seem like good discussion material.
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850mbar vorticity.

141 hours, second wave is off of CV. First wave is still holding.

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1069. duranta
Quoting BobWallace:


There are many natural oil seeps under the ocean. IIRC the Gulf leaks per year about what the BP spill released. The BP spill roughly doubled the annual oil input.

There are microbes that eat most of the oil and researchers reported a great increase in their number following the spill. There apparently are no microbes that can eat the heaviest of the oil components. These are the 'tar balls' that wash up on shores. They were around long before we started drilling under water for oil.

--

That's not in defense of drilling underwater (or anywhere) for oil. Just what I think is the science of the spill and recovery.

We need to get off fossil fuels ASAP.



Recent study by the University of Austin found a lack of diversity among bacteria on the beaches at Grand Isle in La. and Dauphin Island, Al. They are doing testing of beaches up and down the Gulf coast. This lack of diversity occurred in Alaska just before the collapse of the fisheries there. I wouldn't say "mission accomplished" just yet.
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1068. JLPR2


126hrs, down again to 1010mb and a second low forming at the African Coast.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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