June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Quoting allancalderini:
I remember that the F are really bad for your country ex Frances and Floyd.
Now that u mention, they did hit both the Bahamas and the Carolinas [sorry, press]. The I's are not as consistent e.g. Isabel, the storm in both our avatars, didnt hit here.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
Quoting GPTGUY:


That would be me yes


I just want you to know how entertained you've kept me during nights of entertainment duress.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 240543
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A NON-TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 525 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting KoritheMan:


To us, no. To something that lacks conscious thought? Maybe. :P


Lulz. Seriously though, last thing I need when transferring to FSU is a storm over Florida during move in day, I already payed my first months rent and I can't afford to lose time because I need time to search for a part-time job.

Knowing me though, I think my luck (and Florida's) has run out =(.
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1213. GPTGUY
Quoting KoritheMan:


Aren't you that YouTube guy? The one that uploaded all those TWC movies? Dj whatever your name is?


That would be me yes
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Quoting lobdelse81:

Hey Kori, i'm not much of a blogger on this site, but glad to see you back. We've missed you and I've missed your expertise on tropical weather.


Hey man. Good to see you too.
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Quoting lobdelse81:

Y para cual fecha es esto?
La segunda semana de agosto, pienso.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, you guys generally have it rough. I would much rather be hit by a major hurricane living in Louisiana than I would a slow-moving tropical depression living in Honduras or Nicaragua. No offense.
yeah I remember 2008 when td 16 that almost become Paloma kill 75 people in here. my house was flood , and here in La Ceiba was a mess. it was worse than Felix that was a cat 5 that made landfall in Nicaragua.
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Quoting GPTGUY:


Same here in Mississippi..Camille, Fredric, Elena, Georges, Katrina.


Aren't you that YouTube guy? The one that uploaded all those TWC movies? Dj whatever your name is?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Whoa now! All you guys are saying hello this evening! Aren't I special? :P

Nice to see you again.

Hey Kori, i'm not much of a blogger on this site, but glad to see you back. We've missed you and I've missed your expertise on tropical weather.
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Quoting RussianWinter:
Well, I'm making the move (by truck) from Miami to Tallahassee on August 10th, will lil Ernst' be a major storm making a landfall in Florida at that time?



I demand it doesn't.


It's not an UNREASONABLE demand is it?


To us, no. To something that lacks conscious thought? Maybe. :P
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1206. GPTGUY
Quoting Doppler22:

Here... well we just get random storms no matter what the letter... the worst here seems to be Irene, Definetely Isabel and Agnes

and im afraid im going to leave the blog for the night... im extremely tired so night


Same here in Mississippi..Camille, Fredric, Elena, Georges, Katrina.
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Well, I'm making the move (by truck) from Miami to Tallahassee on August 10th, will lil Ernst' be a major storm making a landfall in Florida at that time?



I demand it doesn't.


It's not an UNREASONABLE demand is it?
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Quoting Doppler22:

yeah it is fairly active down there... I got hit by Irene too while it was a tropical storm and i didnt think it did too much damage before i realized it split my big like 100-200 year old tree in half...

and haha ive tried to but my computer is having issues
We got sooo lucky here in Nassau... worst of the winds here were just barely hurricane strength at the eastern end of the island, and we were on the western side, which wasn't the worst of the storm. Nevertheless, the 24 hour period was interminable. The other lucky thing for us is that the islands that were badly hit are relatively unpopulated... sort of like the King Ranch TX of the Bahamas...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
Quoting Doppler22:

Here... well we just get random storms no matter what the letter... the worst here seems to be Irene, Definetely Isabel and Agnes

and im afraid im going to leave the blog for the night... im extremely tired so night
I remember that the F are really bad for your country ex Frances and Floyd.
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Quoting allancalderini:
here we get hit by the M and P storms ex Mitch and Paula.

Here... well we just get random storms no matter what the letter... the worst here seems to be Irene, Definetely Isabel and Agnes

and im afraid im going to leave the blog for the night... im extremely tired so night
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Quoting allancalderini:
here we get hit by the M and P storms ex Mitch and Paula.


Yeah, you guys generally have it rough. I would much rather be hit by a major hurricane living in Louisiana than I would a slow-moving tropical depression living in Honduras or Nicaragua. No offense.
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Quoting JRRP:
finalmente algo de entretenimiento

Y para cual fecha es esto?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... no... we got Irene last year. Plus that silly storm that had the dance of the 7 vortexes. But #6 hasn't been the best for us over the years... D and F storms... and J. Mind u, we get hit by the I storms too [we get hit by all kinds... lol] but so far they've taken the southerly track.
here we get hit by the M and P storms ex Mitch and Paula.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
All I can say is, watch out for Isaac.

HE'S COMING TO GET YOU GUYS! HUNKER DOWN! NOW!
Thats my name and the past few Isaac's have been hurricanes.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting KoritheMan:




Geez guys, one of you get a new avatar...
Hey! Our friendship is based on those avatar pics! lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
All I can say is, watch out for Isaac.

HE'S COMING TO GET YOU GUYS! HUNKER DOWN! NOW!
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Quoting Doppler22:

I believe the F storm would be Florence... What was the F storm last year....... did u get hit by that? i cant remember
The F storm last year was Franklin, a weak 45mph storm that lasted for 2 days and formed N of Bermuda.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... no... we got Irene last year. Plus that silly storm that had the dance of the 7 vortexes. But #6 hasn't been the best for us over the years... D and F storms... and J. Mind u, we get hit by the I storms too [we get hit by all kinds... lol] but so far they've taken the southerly track.

yeah it is fairly active down there... I got hit by Irene too while it was a tropical storm and i didnt think it did too much damage before i realized it split my big like 100-200 year old tree in half...
Quoting KoritheMan:




Geez guys, one of you get a new avatar...

and haha ive tried to but my computer is having issues
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Quoting Doppler22:

I believe the F storm would be Florence... What was the F storm last year....... did u get hit by that? i cant remember
Hmmm... no... we got Irene last year. Plus that silly storm that had the dance of the 7 vortexes. But #6 hasn't been the best for us over the years... D and F storms... and J. Mind u, we get hit by the I storms too [we get hit by all kinds... lol] but so far they've taken the southerly track.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
Need to catch my breath, that was an exciting hour.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting Doppler22:

I believe the F storm would be Florence... What was the F storm last year....... did u get hit by that? i cant remember


Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Dopp... not looking forward to earning another hurricane kudo... so I sure hope something drastic happens to break down that high...


Geez guys, one of you get a new avatar...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Dopp... not looking forward to earning another hurricane kudo... so I sure hope something drastic happens to break down that high...

hello and yeah.... well i wish u the best of luck and hopefully nothing stronger then a few showers hits you
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Hey, Dopp... not looking forward to earning another hurricane kudo... so I sure hope something drastic happens to break down that high...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
Quoting BahaHurican:
If it's going to hit the Bahamas, it's going to be the F storm... what is it, Fiona or something? Flora? We always get the F storm :o(

I believe the F storm would be Florence... What was the F storm last year....... did u get hit by that? i cant remember
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Quoting BahaHurican:
If it's going to hit the Bahamas, it's going to be the F storm... what is it, Fiona or something? Flora? We always get the F storm :o(


Florence.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
If it's going to hit the Bahamas, it's going to be the F storm... what is it, Fiona or something? Flora? We always get the F storm :o(


Florence.
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Quoting allancalderini:
If that is Ernesto and don`t recurve things are going to be bad.
If it's going to hit the Bahamas, it's going to be the F storm... what is it, Fiona or something? Flora? We always get the F storm :o(
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
Quoting BahaHurican:
Boy, I am really glad that is the longrange GFS showing 2 weeks from now. I can always hope this is a ghost storm. But not liking that run at all. And as for this being a Bahamas storm, I want u to recall that many many storms that hit the Bahamas hit PR first... and that run makes it too close to call... actually that could, depending on what happens with the high, skirt both PR and the Bahamas and end up near Savannah...

Anyway, that is one ... uh... EXCITING... run....


Agreed.... things about to get interesting in the Atlantic.... hope nothing too bad happens with Ernesto
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125. OracleDeAtlantis 8:46 AM GMT on July 18, 2012

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
If this region continues to break, watch out on the Northeast side.


And there is the reflection I was waiting for. Note that without exception, since I initially published my Watch Area, when a break has occurred inside this region, there has been a 5.0 or greater echo on the northeast side. If my memory is correct, each reflection, and I believe there have been four 5.0 or greater events, has occurred within three days on the opposing side. By "northeast side," I mean the San Andreas of California, up to the Oregon Coast.

I've been asked how I made the connection between these two regions and I can only say that it is strictly intuition. However, I have an arguably good track record for correctly identifying foreshocks, including the two largest events of the past three years.

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Now to see if other reliable models jump on board with this solution, if so watch out SE US.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting BahaHurican:
Boy, I am really glad that is the longrange GFS showing 2 weeks from now. I can always hope this is a ghost storm. But not liking that run at all. And as for this being a Bahamas storm, I want u to recall that many many storms that hit the Bahamas hit PR first... and that run makes it too close to call... actually that could, depending on what happens with the high, skirt both PR and the Bahamas and end up near Savannah...

Anyway, that is one ... uh... EXCITING... run....



One positive for development is that we actually have a wave. It's not like it's speculating a storm two weeks out with no solid basis.
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Quoting ncstorm:
on that run it looks to be more of a bahamas storm and it looks like it will miss the PR/Dominicans islands..
Boy, I am really glad that is the longrange GFS showing 2 weeks from now. I can always hope this is a ghost storm. But not liking that run at all. And as for this being a Bahamas storm, I want u to recall that many many storms that hit the Bahamas hit PR first... and that run makes it too close to call... actually that could, depending on what happens with the high, skirt both PR and the Bahamas and end up near Savannah...

Anyway, that is one ... uh... EXCITING... run....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
1179. ryang
Quoting KoritheMan:


Especially in the 0z and 12z runs.


Will be interesting to see what the EURO shows.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I recall reading somewhere that an average of 4 named storms and about one hurricane hit the US each year.
Seems about right, things should get active in the next week.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting ryang:
Consistency is key though.


Especially in the 0z and 12z runs.
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Quoting allancalderini:
anyways do the GFS show a pre-florence or something like that in the run?


Not really, but the GFS forecasts a tropical wave with weak low pressure behind the future Ernesto by 288 to 312 hours. However, it doesn't show further development.

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1175. ryang
Based on that GFS run, we should see some action during the next two weeks. Consistency is key though.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Really good to see you again even though I just started posting a few weeks ago. Seems like the cv season and August could start with a bang. In recent years, what is the definition of normal, though its interesting to see a cane headed for FL.


I recall reading somewhere that an average of 4 named storms and about one hurricane hit the US each year.
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Quoting ryang:
Hello, Kori! Long time no see...


Whoa now! All you guys are saying hello this evening! Aren't I special? :P

Nice to see you again.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Wait, you mean things might actually return to normal? Who would have thought...

Really good to see you again even though I just started posting a few weeks ago so you might not know who I am. Seems like the cv season and August could start with a bang. In recent years, what is the definition of normal, though its interesting to see a cane headed for FL.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
1171. ryang
Hello, Kori! Long time no see...
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1170. JRRP
finalmente algo de entretenimiento
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1169. Patrap
WP092012 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) VICENTE

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

04:01 UTC


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
1168. ncstorm
Im going to bed but keep in mind if this is to develop, trying to speculate where this is going will make you crazy..just be prepare if anything comes your way..

Good night!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15137

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.