June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Some pointed out that Saturday’s deluge was historic in nature, with the Global Times noting it was the heaviest rainstorm in the capital in 61 years. The worst-hit area of the city received 460 millimeters (18.4 inches) of rain on Saturday.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM 5jFJAqZW565P9IkxIfeeGaSn1L9ew?docId=94a1c1cc37b94e 3b8a28690365fa5af5
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Good morning.

From the San Juan NWS about future developments in MDR.


THE
GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW WAVES ADVANCING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AT
THE PACE OF ONE EVERY 5 TO 5.5 DAYS. THE LAST ONE TO LEAVE AFRICA
ON SUNDAY...HAS BEEN SPINNING UP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
GFS AND WILL REACH 40 WEST BY 03/00Z AUGUST 2012 SHOULD THE MODEL
SOLUTION HOLD. AT THIS TIME DEVELOPMENT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO MAKE
ANY DECISIONS. NEVERTHELESS PRELIMINARY ANNUAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE 2012
HURRICANE SEASON SHOULD BE NEAR COMPLETION.


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Quoting aspectre:
1249 AussieStorm: [News about HongKong]

Well when ya rob a man at gunpoint, ya take his valuables.
And the Brits stole the high ground of HongKong from China.
3metre(10foot)flood map
MUCH more concerned about what's happened in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Jiangmen, Zhongshan, Foshan, etc with only 5hours between a Cat.1 warning and a Cat.4 landfall.

Yeah, but they did give it back. Probably in a better state than when they took it.

Vicente R.I'ed at a massive rate.

93W is getting it's act together. This could be the first real impacting Typhoon on the Philippines.

Palau Satellite

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1264. Walshy
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia
515 am EDT Tuesday Jul 24 2012

Consequently...the focus
bullseye for convection today appears to be along and west of the
I-77 corridor...with the Bristol-Abingdon area appearing to be in
the center of any potential mesoscale convective system. Drier air begins to advect SW
into the northern part of the County Warning Area toward evening. With this
thinking in mind...have advertised likely to categorical probability of precipitation
generally from blf-mkj...west and SW...with chance probability of precipitation to the east. The
lowest probability of precipitation are across the Piedmont region. Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk
advertised for the entire County Warning Area...but again thinking is that the
main threat for severe will be across our far S WV...SW WV...and northwest
NC counties. If the mesoscale convective system becomes more organized than currently
expected...we could be dealing with another derecho and a more
widespread damaging wind event for areas east of the alleghanys as
well. As such...Storm Prediction Center is hinting at a potential moderate risk if
this becomes evident later in the day. The hail threat should be
mostly confined to areas west of I-77 given current thinking.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
304 am EDT Tuesday Jul 24 2012

Better shear will increase the chance of severe storms across
the region and Storm Prediction Center has put the entire County Warning Area in a slight risk area for
severe storms today. The main concern will be straight-line wind damage
but large hail and even an isolated tornado will also be possible this afternoon and evening.

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Aaaanndd now the lakes start warming again.



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Quoting LargoFl:

That disturbance over the Yucatan may be persistent.. it's already lighting things up in TX. Bret is an interesting analogue: Cat 3 at landfall.
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1261. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42037
1260. LargoFl
.................................Good Morning Folks..here's the 7-day forecast for the Tampa Bay area...............and we have a Yellow circle out in the Atlantic this morning, have a great day folks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42037
1259. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42037
1258. LargoFl
CZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A NON-TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 525 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42037
1249 AussieStorm: [News about HongKong]

Well when ya rob a man at gunpoint, ya take his valuables.
And the Brits stole the high ground of HongKong from China.
3metre(10foot)flood map
MUCH more concerned about what's happened in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Jiangmen, Zhongshan, Foshan, etc with only 5hours between a Cat.1 warning and a Cat.4 landfall.
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24HR PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST
Issued at 5pm, 24 July 2012

The low pressure area (LPA) was located at 860km E of Mindanao (7.0N, 135.0E). Meanwhile, another low pressure (LPA) was estimated at 320km ENE of Tuguegarao City (18.0N, 125.0E).

Northern & Central Luzon will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers & thunderstorms becoming widespread rains over extreme N. Luzon which may trigger flashfloods and landslides. Southern Luzon & Mindanao will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.
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Vicente still holding together well
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Thanks for the update Aussie, glad the reports haven't been worse. Strong Typhoon, shocking if that's the worst of the stories to come. Crossing my fingers.

Well, they are very well prepared there so i am not really surprised.
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I'll be back and forth. Talking to a small group and checking in while I check on my daughter upstairs. Really hard to tell what our August and September will bring us here. Could go either way. More concerned about the geo-political storms coming in August and September. Want to see a category five; just wait.
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Thanks for the update Aussie, glad the reports haven't been worse. Strong Typhoon, shocking if that's the worst of the stories to come. Crossing my fingers.
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Helloooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!
Anyone here??????
Where is the night shift, did the night shift fall asleep?
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Quoting wxchaser97:

um,,, say what!!!!!
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Quoting Tribucanes:
I left out an O in that Boy Scout Anthem. Alas, it was a long time ago. :) Out for now; gotta love the third shift crew; committed. I have fixed that O issue.

O nO.

From BBC News
Hong Kong lashed by strong typhoon





A strong typhoon hit Hong Kong overnight, leaving scores injured, hundreds of trees felled and many flights cancelled or delayed.

Typhoon Vicente hit late on Monday, bringing winds of more than 140 km/h (87 mph) and heavy downpours.

The storm warning was briefly raised to the highest level of 10 for the first time in 13 years but downgraded on Tuesday as the storm passed.

Trading on the stock exchange was temporarily delayed on Tuesday morning.

The stock exchange was expected to resume trading in the afternoon.

Although the typhoon was forecast to move away from Hong Kong across western Guangdong, the Hong Kong Observatory warned that gale force winds were still prevailing on Tuesday morning.

Authorities warned that flight disruptions could continue.

More than 100 people aged between four and 86 sought treatment at public hospitals and at least 72 were hospitalised, officials said.

Flooding has also been reported in some areas and hundreds of trees were felled overnight.

The Hong Kong government has opened 24 temporary shelters and more than 250 people have sought refuge.

The Airport Authority said that between midnight (1600 GMT) to 0800 local time, 60 flights had been cancelled, 60 delayed and another 16 diverted.

Public transportation systems were resuming service gradually on Tuesday morning.





Hong Kong is cleaning up after a severe typhoon struck the city Tuesday with gale-force winds and rain.
Hong Kong Hospital Authority reported at least 129 people were injured, none fatally.
Typhoon Vicente caused the city to raise its strongest typhoon warning in 13 years.
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I left out an O in that Boy Scout Anthem. Alas, it was a long time ago. :) Out for now; gotta love the third shift crew; committed. I have fixed that O issue.
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No one's really up, but I did a blog.
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
nice big t.storms off the east coast we need to watch it because is moving southeast right in the warmer water!!
persistance is the key my friend.
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has anyone look that every name that pagasa replaced last year for tropical cyclones all of them were females.
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And I've got to go again. On the cusp of freedom and life in a place they don't want to be for some I counsel. Got to go again. What has the world done to us?
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Quoting Tribucanes:
I of coarse know this General's name. I just want others to participate. It's late. :)


Lol. You lost me on the boy scout thing. It is late. :)
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I of coarse know this General's name. I just want others to participate. It's late. :)
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
i was very surprised to see yellow mark tonight with 10%
The night that keeps on giving, now Im out until later. Bye.
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Looking forward to see the next GFS run in the morning. Night all.
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I forget what General we had recently that got sacked for a bad comment in Rolling Stone, but he went on two hours of sleep his entire service to this great country of ours. God Bless America and Oorah! to those who serve. Little shout out to my retired Marine Father-In-Law.
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Quoting allancalderini:
I am not sure if I will be surprised or not if that non tropical becomes something if Jose could this one maybe.
There is a spin/low and convection so its possible.
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Night everyone, should be interesting to see the next ECMWF and GFS.
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I am not sure if I will be surprised or not if that non tropical becomes something if Jose could this one maybe.
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GULF OF MEXICO...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 24N95W TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 24/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM
21N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 89W-94W. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR
27N86W. THE 1018 MB SURFACE LOW HAS WEAKENED INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AT 24/0300 UTC FROM THE FLORIDA COAST IN THE
APALACHEE BAY NEAR 30N84W TO 25N88W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE S GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 84W-97W. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REBUILD SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 26N TUE THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND N CARIBBEAN COVERS
THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W TO NEAR 20N70W SUPPORTING A LOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
N OF 29N BETWEEN 58W-65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N24W AND A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E ATLC AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 35N30W
TO A SECOND 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N41W ALONG 26N56W TO A THIRD
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N71W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
SAINT AUGUSTINE GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER
AGAIN TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SAHARAN
DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN BUT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME
DIFFUSE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S THROUGH THU AS WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES N OF AREA.

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One AM on a Monday night in South Central Wisconsin, yet another enlightening night. All hours are God's hours. OHWAHSAGOOSIAM Boy scout anthem I once heard while at an Eagle's camp. I got it, eventually.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
We got sooo lucky here in Nassau... worst of the winds here were just barely hurricane strength at the eastern end of the island, and we were on the western side, which wasn't the worst of the storm. Nevertheless, the 24 hour period was interminable. The other lucky thing for us is that the islands that were badly hit are relatively unpopulated... sort of like the King Ranch TX of the Bahamas...


The only major to hit the U.S. and not be retired. It also broke the longest hurricane drought in TX history of 10 years. We're on 4 years now. Maybe we'll make another run at the record?

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Quoting KoritheMan:


To us, no. To something that lacks conscious thought? Maybe. :P


Yep, they go herp derp all over the place until they fizzle.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I keep dozing off between posts.... wonder if that's a sign I should go to sleep... lol


It's not Hurricane Day, save your all-nighters, for the storms.
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1225. GPTGUY
Quoting KoritheMan:


I just want you to know how entertained you've kept me during nights of entertainment duress.



lol..hey no problem man..it started out with just showin that Mississippi was hit by Katrina and showing people what we went through over here because it was all New Orleans...but then I just kept gettin requests for more and older footage. Im glad you enjoy the clips thanks.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I keep dozing off between posts.... wonder if that's a sign I should go to sleep... lol
Im doing the same thing, I'll stay alittle longer.
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90E down to 80%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. THE CIRCULATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL
SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN


Good night all.
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I keep dozing off between posts.... wonder if that's a sign I should go to sleep... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 10N115W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N113W 14N114W TO THE
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 113W AND
117W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

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Quoting RussianWinter:


Lulz. Seriously though, last thing I need when transferring to FSU is a storm over Florida during move in day, I already payed my first months rent and I can't afford to lose time because I need time to search for a part-time job.

Knowing me though, I think my luck (and Florida's) has run out =(.


"In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - The wise words of Jedi Master Obi-Wan Kenobi
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Quoting allancalderini:
I remember that the F are really bad for your country ex Frances and Floyd.
Now that u mention, they did hit both the Bahamas and the Carolinas [sorry, press]. The I's are not as consistent e.g. Isabel, the storm in both our avatars, didnt hit here.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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