June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Thanks, Dr. Masters.
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Good Morning Everyone..I see the Euro has some potential in the GOM on its 00z run

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The next billion dollar disaster?

Very possible... The fact that it's only moving 7 knots isn't helping... And it's probably a good deal stronger than the currently listed 65kts... Probably closer to 80-85kts.
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I'm surprised nobody is talking about that Typhoon that could threaten lives..people were talking more about Emilia earlier this month...

In terms of development in the Atlantic looks like I was right the first time when I said we won't see nothing until the last two weeks of august.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16745
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The track forecast for Vicente has shifted way north:



This is a dangerous situation for southern China anywhere west of Hong Kong with flooding and mudslides likely:



The next billion dollar disaster?
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I find the above Graph very interesting. here's part of the blog comment on it:-
"Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979."
If you look at the graph, bearing in mind that it covers only 1979 to 2011 in its entirety, than on the sea ice coverage scale the extent goes from a bit below 6 million sq kilometers down to 3 million sq kilometers. This is a massive variation bearing in mind that throughout recorded human history the Arctic ice was seen as and proved to be an impassable barrier. It now seems to be reduced to a partial nuisance to shipping a bit of an oceanic roundabout rather than a blockage.
Next on the heat levels anomalies map, unless you are in the greater Australian desert, or on a boat off the west coast of Alaska, then you are more than likely to be experiencing warming, be it to you local but also part of a greater global pattern.
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gussing its time to post the rules of the road


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The track forecast for Vicente has shifted way north:



This is a dangerous situation for southern China anywhere west of Hong Kong with flooding and mudslides likely:

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Lack of hurricanes is probably due to climate change. Oh wait, that's a good thing, right?
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Thanks Dr. for the blog.
Just passing a brief comment but this lot looks ominous!
Morning/Moaning everybody, if it happens to be morning where you are and if its not good day anyway.
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Looking at satellite vapor loop, it appears that Pottery maybe sleeping with the fish.That's a big patch of weather moving over him. Also first time in a long time, not seeing a large ULL heading west towards the southern US from the central Atlantic. Could be trouble if that holds up.
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what happen to the big bad blob that everyone had at least an invest by last night,looks like someone owes the NHC an apology,lol
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7/19


7/23

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Boring times for hurricanes lovers.Sorry.
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Thanks for update!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.