June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
That's a dangerous wobble north to one of the most populated cities on the planet.

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON MG SURROUNDING RING WITH DG EYE EMBEDDED
BY LG. ME=4.5 FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM. PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT.



Any evacs or anything?
Large storm surge expected?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Hearing about another possible dereccho...

Is hard to be green
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Guys I just don't see that dry air mass out by Africa breaking down any time soon.We need the MJO to help break it down(and that won't be coming until the end of the month).The tropical waves have been getting vaporized as soon as they come off of Africa.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
Quoting ncstorm:
oh oh!!

from Allan Huffman discussion today
Temperatures will be on the rise though with tomorrow looking like a hot day with temps likely near 100 for areas east of the mountains. However, we will likely see some strong storms pop up tomorrow afternoon and then I am watching the potential for a “Derecho” to form back in the Midwest tomorrow and then race southeast towards the area tomorrow evening. If this does occur, we could see some wind damage accompanying a fast moving line of storms tomorrow evening. Most of the state is under threat from this but we will have a better idea tomorrow.



Hearing about another possible dereccho...

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Hey guys im back, did the WPAc storm suddenly strenghten or how did it get to how it is now?
It was not so good yesterday
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That's a dangerous wobble north to one of the most populated cities on the planet.

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON MG SURROUNDING RING WITH DG EYE EMBEDDED
BY LG. ME=4.5 FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM. PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh ha ha ha.Lol.

I edited it to be a little less insulting. :)
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Looking at the month-to-date anomalies, and the current forecasts, it looks like many Midwestern cities are on track for their hottest month on record. Interestingly, Indianapolis had never had a record warm month since records had been taken at the airport site beginning in 1939 until this March. All of the record warm months were when the official observations were taken on a rooftop downtown which ran a few degrees warmer than the airport site. This month will likely become the second.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Dangerous system strengthening at a good clip.





Ouch!! if it wraps the deep convection on the North Side Hong Kong will get whacked.



Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
Quoting jeffs713:

Yep, due to all the hot air being put out by bloggers hoping for a storm. ;)
Oh ha ha ha.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
Been in couple of derecho in my young life, especially July 2006 St. Louis derecho, and they're no joke to deal with. Northern NC is still showing scars from that massive derecho last month.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


Is this "state" North Carolina? And is this tomorrow?


Yes and Huffman does weather for Central NC..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
On the Florida/Gulf front, I am looking at the WV loops and that area looks promising (lot's of moisture/low sheer/warm sst's) and surface vort per CIMMS.

WV loop

Link

Surface vort

Link

On the down side, the area is devoid of any convection at the moment and it is squeezed between a ULL to the West, very dry air on the East, and land interaction from the Gulf coast.

ULL

Link

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Quoting ncstorm:
sorry guys because Im sure this has been posting multiple times but I barely posted this weekend so I am just catching up to speed..the whole state of florida??


Yep, due to the collective *sigh* put out by bloggers when the storms went *poof* last night.
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Dangerous system strengthening at a good clip.



Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now that a Derecho happened and caused massive damage now ever thunderstorm complex is going to be compared to it.Our local mets are calling for some strong to server storms tomorrow.


thats only on here Wash that people see a derecho forming with every thunderstorm but Allan is pretty good with his analysis and I have never seen him mention it before..tomorrow will be here before you know it and we will find out if we got a bad day setting up then..

From the SPC
A SECONDARY REGION WHERE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE WILL BE ACROSS ERN VA INTO NC.
STRONG HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD AID RAPID SFC WARMING BENEATH
INCREASING NWLY FLOW REGIME. ANY STORMS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL DO SO WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERISTIC OF 25-30KT OF
SFC-6KM SHEAR AND SBCAPE UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
Atlantic probably won't see nothing until late August.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
I have our gom aoi's center fix approx:28N,85W
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4712
Pretty nice storms this morning.. LOUD.

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Quoting ncstorm:
oh oh!!

from Allan Huffman discussion today
Temperatures will be on the rise though with tomorrow looking like a hot day with temps likely near 100 for areas east of the mountains. However, we will likely see some strong storms pop up tomorrow afternoon and then I am watching the potential for a %u201CDerecho%u201D to form back in the Midwest tomorrow and then race southeast towards the area tomorrow evening. If this does occur, we could see some wind damage accompanying a fast moving line of storms tomorrow evening. Most of the state is under threat from this but we will have a better idea tomorrow.



Is this "state" North Carolina? And is this tomorrow?

EDIT: Went to the site and checked it. Yes, the state is North Carolina...
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Taz.....Not being rude...But what exactly is monomania?
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Quite a lightning show here in Palm Beach county here this morning....Fortunatley most of the severe weather was east off the coast.
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Click images for loop-de-loops.

Appears to me like a weak low wrapping up near the Tampa Bay area...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting ncstorm:
oh oh!!

from Allan Huffman discussion today
Temperatures will be on the rise though with tomorrow looking like a hot day with temps likely near 100 for areas east of the mountains. However, we will likely see some strong storms pop up tomorrow afternoon and then I am watching the potential for a “Derecho” to form back in the Midwest tomorrow and then race southeast towards the area tomorrow evening. If this does occur, we could see some wind damage accompanying a fast moving line of storms tomorrow evening. Most of the state is under threat from this but we will have a better idea tomorrow.

Now that a Derecho happened and caused massive damage now ever thunderstorm complex is going to be compared to it.Our local mets are calling for some strong to server storms tomorrow.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
Video killed the radio star but
Shear killed the blog
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 476
oh oh!!

from Allan Huffman discussion today
Temperatures will be on the rise though with tomorrow looking like a hot day with temps likely near 100 for areas east of the mountains. However, we will likely see some strong storms pop up tomorrow afternoon and then I am watching the potential for a “Derecho” to form back in the Midwest tomorrow and then race southeast towards the area tomorrow evening. If this does occur, we could see some wind damage accompanying a fast moving line of storms tomorrow evening. Most of the state is under threat from this but we will have a better idea tomorrow.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
Quoting ncstorm:
sorry guys because Im sure this has been posting multiple times but I barely posted this weekend so I am just catching up to speed..the whole state of florida??

that circle needs to be moved over the eastern half of the gom,i'll have some crow as i said yesterday that i thought we'd have a td today,well im still thinking has a decent chance today as the area in the eastern gom drifts north toward the panhandke,30% chance of a td over the next 36 hrs imo
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Everyone awake and safe Check
Coffee Check
Meds Check

Tropical Weather in July Withdrawal Check

Nothin Nowhere! (Atlantic)
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 476

Another area of disturbed wx coming off Africa. The next 24 hours will feature this system to weaken and lose any notice it gets.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This is a completely normal weather pattern for Florida in July. I don't really understand why everyone is hyped over this... maybe it's because we've gone without a tropical storm to track for so long lol
I'm not over hyped.I'm just not discounting the probability.
Quoting ncstorm:


Looks to set up in the same spot that Debby was..the GFS has the energy sitting over that area for days and then crossing florida..





Look at that X off of Africa.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Interesting but probably won't develope as pressures are way to high.

This is a completely normal weather pattern for Florida in July. I don't really understand why everyone is hyped over this... maybe it's because we've gone without a tropical storm to track for so long lol
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey ncstorm.Maybe a weak T.D if we get some convection with it.


Looks to set up in the same spot that Debby was..the GFS has the energy sitting over that area for days and then crossing florida..





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
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There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Thanks Dr.; does not mean that a reliable model or two could spin up something (model-run wise) within the next 7 days but the Atlantic pickings are slim at the moment.

We are definitely going to get several storms in Atlantic in the peak period but it is not out of the question that we might not see the next storm until late August when the first viable CV wave develops (the models will clue us in advance of that).
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i new it wont won't develope in the 1st place
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Interesting but probably won't develope as pressures are way to high.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Thanks Jeff...
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Quoting ncstorm:
sorry guys because Im sure this has been posting multiple times but I barely posted this weekend so I am just catching up to speed..the whole state of florida??

It was looking good yesterday, then convection decreased in the evening and overnight. Also the circulation is broad which is why the whole state of FL is highlighted.
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Quoting ncstorm:


Hey Wash!
Hey ncstorm.Maybe a weak T.D if we get some convection with it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
Quoting ncstorm:
sorry guys because Im sure this has been posting multiple times but I barely posted this weekend so I am just catching up to speed..the whole state of florida??






you can read back in the other blog dr m blog you find out all you need too no


Link
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm surprised nobody is talking about that Typhoon that could threaten lives..people were talking more about Emilia earlier this month...

In terms of development in the Atlantic looks like I was right the first time when I said we won't see nothing until the last two weeks of august.

The back yard always looks more interesting than some distant fields.
We will hear more about whats going to happen in China in a few hours no doubt. they were cloud seeding for rain, it now looks like they are going to get too much of it but then again, it will probably not be in the right places.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmmm.


Hey Wash!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
That typhoon in Pacific is looking to be real soaker... hope people is okay there :\
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sorry guys because Im sure this has been posting multiple times but I barely posted this weekend so I am just catching up to speed..the whole state of florida??

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
mid.80s.mild.below.average.this.summer..e.cen.flori da
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Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone..I see the Euro has some potential in the GOM on its 00z run

Mmmmm.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
From the previous blog...

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Well sure. As long no one has a differing opinion, it's kumbaya.
It's more like as long as the differing opinion is about what's happening with a TC or some other severe wx, we can handle it. Everybody understand the "crow" concept. But how do you solve that for climate issues, the outcome of which will likely not be observed until after most of the blog is long dead and gone?

From the current blog...
Quoting breeezee:
what happen to the big bad blob that everyone had at least an invest by last night,looks like someone owes the NHC an apology,lol
Geez, just because pple r a little enthusistic, some pple have to get low... lol

A little wishcasting at the end of July never hurt nobody...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The next billion dollar disaster?
Let's hope not...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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