June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Quoting ncstorm:


If my B12 is working right today, I have seen the 0 percent develop into tropical storms..I dont know about hurricanes though?


My "B12" checked ok...
But really..they should make it at least a 10 percent if they are still concerned about it..
But "0".. as Pat would say pfft.. :)
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
They'll be fine, although the deaths will be high.
???
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13720
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
If Engalnd was cool, why is it still under red dots for most of its area?
England wasn't "cool" in June; it was simply "cooler" than it's been since 1991. That map shows anomalies for the period from 1971-2000, which (of course) encompasses a cooler period in the planet's recent past.

As the planet warms, even a relatively "cool" period now can still be substantially warmer than a warm period some decades ago. Such is the case here. Obvs.

No silly conspiracy (as someone suggested); no manipulation of data. Just sound climate science....
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13720


Forecast Update
Valid: Mon 23 Jul 2012 12:00 to Tue 24 Jul 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 23 Jul 2012 12:03
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for parts of C/S Italy and parts of the Adriatic Sea mainly for excessive rainfall amounts, large to very large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
A level 2 was issued for NE-Sardinia/SE Corse mainly for excessive rainfall amounts.
A level 2 was issued for Sicily mainly for excessive rainfall amounts.
A level 1 was issued for all of the C-Mediterranean area mainly for large hail, heavy rainfall, strong to severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for C-Serbia and W-Romania mainly for isolated large hail.


SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the main outlook, issued at 23:29 Z

DISCUSSION

Issued this update to perform a few changes.

The major level 2 area was expanded to the SW and now includes all of Sicily. Latest HVIS imagery and model data indicate an increasingly favorable environment, where advection and propagation of any thunderstorm cancel each other out. This set-up supports back-building or training thunderstorm activity with a significant heavy rainfall risk. Although major storm clusters currently evolve mainly offshore of Sicily, the approaching LL depression from the NW assists in further increase of the LL flow beneath a weak mid/upper level flow regime, so any convergenze zone could become the focus for excessive rainfall amounts.

For the rest of the outlook, only minor changes were performed.

Meanwhile, a broad but ill defined low level circulation center has evolved atop the Tyrrhenian Sea, verified by synop, ASCAT and SSMI data. However as proposed, thermodynamic stratification seems to become worse (at least on a temporarily basis) from NW to SE with strongest DMC over the SE-Tyrrhenian Sea. With expected eastward development of strongest clusters towards C/E Italy and the Adriatic Sea during the night, chances for significant developement of the LLCC until 06Z seem to remain slim. This is also in line with latest cyclone phase diagram forecasts of the FSU. Nevertheless, the consolidating depression has already impacts on our forecast (upgrade of Sicily), so we will continue to monitor its evolution.

link

BBL Barb
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Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 am CDT Monday Jul 23 2012


Valid 241200z - 251200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley to coastal
NC...


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the northern High
Plains...


..OH valley to coastal NC...


Significant height falls will overspread much of the northestern U.S.
Tuesday as Ontario upper trough shifts east. Latest guidance
suggests a strong middle level speed maximum will dig southeastward into western New York by
25/00z with both the NAM and GFS suggesting speeds on the order of
60kt at 500mb. This feature should force a pronounced surface cold
front into New England early in the period with a trailing wind
shift across the Ohio Valley into northern Iowa by 18z. This frontal zone is
expected to be the primary focus for organized convective
development during the daylight hours.


Early in the period it appears low level warm advection should be
responsible for elevated convection along a corridor from southern Minnesota
into portions of northern Illinois and perhaps even northern ind. As boundary layer
warms downstream eastern remnants of this activity could see upward
growth along the cold front with the greatest probability for
meaningful deep convection capable of producing damaging winds
expected across the Ohio Valley. A secondary region where organized
severe thunderstorms may evolve will be across eastern Virginia into NC.
Strong heating along Lee trough should aid rapid surface warming beneath
increasing northwesterly flow regime. Any storms that evolve across this
region will do so within an environment characteristic of 25-30kt of
surface-6km shear and SBCAPE upwards of 2500 j/kg. Locally damaging
winds are the greatest risk with this activity.


..New England...


Upper trough is expected to shift across New England early in the
period and associated surface cold front will have moved across western New
England by 18z. If this feature slows there is reason to believe
much of eastern New England will destabilize sufficiently for organized
severe thunderstorms along the advancing cold front. Strong middle
level flow and favorable jet dynamics will support ascent across
this region and if buoyancy is there supercells may develop. This
region may be upgraded if timing of cold front slows.


..nrn High Plains...


Southern edge of modest west-southwesterly flow will extend across Wyoming/South Dakota as strong
upper low moves across ab into eastern sk. At the surface...high pressure
will relax across the upper MS valley but Ely low level component to
the boundary layer will hold across the western Dakotas as weak surface
front stalls along the South Dakota/Nebraska border. Strong heating along western
fringe of moisture should be adequate for convective development
near the Black Hills into western ND. With deep layer shear on the
order of 35-40kt storms could certainly rotate and a few supercells
may develop. Weak warm advection may allow this activity to spread
towards central South Dakota during the overnight hours.


.Darrow.. 07/23/2012
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41560
Quoting pcola57:
I've often wondered why the NHC posts a "near 0 percent" chance of development...
It sounds like someone is still in the back room at HQ going " come on..just one more roll!!"..LOL .. :)


If my B12 is working right today, I have seen the 0 percent develop into tropical storms..I dont know about hurricanes though?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16197
Quoting pcola57:
I've often wondered why the NHC posts a "near 0 percent" chance of development...
It sounds like someone is still in the back room at HQ going " come on..just one more roll!!"..LOL .. :)

I think it is not so much because it is a threat to develop, but because they want to see in more detail what is going on.
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This is a bad typhoon going for Hong Kong, but they've went though this over and over. They'll be fine, although the deaths will be high.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41560
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


thats an officital map.
they wouldnt change it from what really happened

Don't think too logically - you will miss the "fact" that climate scientists are changing the data to keep their grants coming (since there is lots and lots of money in slaving away poring over data for months on end).

I find it a bit odd, but I think the issue may also be the resolution of the map, not able to capture smaller-scale features that impact regions such as the UK.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


all that rain seems to barely have dented the GA drought


That's because it's only been scattered and not everyone has been getting rain. The only to put a nice dent in that drought would be to have a nice tropical system move thru.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
500 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018- VAZ052>057-
241000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
500 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION
OF THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41560
I've often wondered why the NHC posts a "near 0 percent" chance of development...
It sounds like someone is still in the back room at HQ going " come on..just one more roll!!"..LOL .. :)
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Quoting Chucktown:


Because climate change continues to be a conspiracy.


thats an officital map.
they wouldnt change it from what really happened
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Amazing that SE and E TX are outta drought
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narrow.the.yellow..n.e.gulf
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Quoting RitaEvac:


all that rain seems to barely have dented the GA drought

we are 15 inches behind but you cant even tell anymore.
the drought is there but its not.
except to peanut and onion and peach farmers
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Seems we could have some storms in the US
Not a derecho but more downbursts from the storms that develop. Wonder if it will help with rain.
Its funny the midwest is suffering from a severe drought but in GA severe is seems like normal precip, not even exceptional is that bad down here.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
If Engalnd was cool, why is it still under red dots for most of its area?


Because climate change continues to be a conspiracy.
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Quoting jeffs713:

I thought the 850mb vort was on the other side of FL, and there was a ULL nearby.


yeah..but it looks like something is trying to form on the other side..could explain the state of florida being circled?..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16197


Hong Kong latest radar imagery.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah that.Well I'm out since people wanna be (I can't say it on this blog).I won't return until something in the Atlantic happens I will be lurking.But development won't occur until the end of the month.I see the models had dropped that low coming off of Africa in the next seven days as well.
Marking my calendar
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RAW T hit a 6.0





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Our little mediterranean low right now.
Follow it's development, if you like.
In some parts of Italy already some flooding has occurred.

Rgb close up

visible sat

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Quoting ncstorm:
Is there a surface low trying to form near the bahamas?




I thought the 850mb vort was on the other side of FL, and there was a ULL nearby.
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If Engalnd was cool, why is it still under red dots for most of its area?
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Quoting bappit:

The CIMSS TPW shows the Gulf filling with moisture the last three days. SE Tx is at about 2 inches PW but subsidence from high pressure to our north is supposed to limit convection here. That means the moisture will just go somewhere else.

Yep. Normally, I'd say "stupid cap" (for preventing the rain)... but after the rain of a few weeks ago, most of our lawns STILL need time to dry out.
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Is there a surface low trying to form near the bahamas?



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16197
I found a surface analysis for the Western Pacific and China. Kind of interesting in that everything seems to be stationary or moving slowly.

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We are in the El-Nino range for all areas of the Pacific now except Nino 4.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting hydrus:
Possible heavy rain event for the S.E.

The CIMSS TPW shows the Gulf filling with moisture the last three days. SE Tx is at about 2 inches PW but subsidence from high pressure to our north is supposed to limit convection here. That means the moisture will just go somewhere else.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah that.Well I'm out since people wanna be (I can't say it on this blog).I won't return until something in the Atlantic happens I will be lurking.But development won't occur until the end of the month.I see the models had dropped that low coming off of Africa in the next seven days as well.


It's ok washingtonian115,
Don't take the blog too seriously...
I enjoy some of your posts..
Blog on brother.. :)
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Quoting ClimateChange:
Interestingly, Indianapolis had never had a record warm month since records had been taken at the airport site beginning in 1939 until this March.
every site has had a record warm month, in every location 'records' exist. it is the month that is the 'warmest on record'. surely you're not saying no record warm months existed there before this year ;)
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Possible heavy rain event for the S.E.
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Warming is beginning again across the Pacific according to 7/23 ENSO update.

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 1.1ºC
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
CFS doesn't paint a pretty picture for the Atlantic in terms of the MJO entering the basin until late August.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14741
Might as well watch Vicente. Not so much different from having a storm rip through the Caribbean--unless you live in the Caribbean of course.
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Must be quite a ridge over China.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
The 2012 season is over.....


now let this begin....
The Atlantic is deader than a dead raccoon laying in the road that's been hit by a car several times.
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New JTWC advisory is out, it puts Vicente at a likely conservative 70kts... The track has shifted further north, so landfall may only be 12-18 hours away... It is still moving at a very slow 7kts.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7992
Quoting hydrus:
Nargis.?
Yeah that.Well I'm out since people wanna be (I can't say it on this blog).I won't return until something in the Atlantic happens I will be lurking.But development won't occur until the end of the month.I see the models had dropped that low coming off of Africa in the next seven days as well.
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The 2012 season is over.....


now let this begin....
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If the eye clears out more, look out:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7992
Quoting washingtonian115:
That Typhoon is on my #@4% list now along with..

Katrina,Nagris,Ike,Wilma,Rita,Charley,Ivan.Mitch along with some other T.C I can't think of..
Nargis.?
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Now that Cody's birthday blob is gone all we have is this and 90E:

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That Typhoon is on my #@4% list now along with..

Katrina,Nagris,Ike,Wilma,Rita,Charley,Ivan.Mitch along with some other T.C I can't think of..
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4981
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
That's a dangerous wobble north to one of the most populated cities on the planet.

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON MG SURROUNDING RING WITH DG EYE EMBEDDED
BY LG. ME=4.5 FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM. PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT.



Any evacs or anything?
Large storm surge expected?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.