June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Just offshore Hong Kong
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167. MahFL
Quoting Bluestorm5:
This is a bad typhoon going for Hong Kong, but they've went though this over and over. They'll be fine, although the deaths will be high.


Define "high".
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Quoting 954FtLCane:


Lets just say you have a view on GW that you defend vehemently. I do believe there is GW so I'm on your side many times but sometimes you tend to knock people over the head with facts and not necessarily write it in the sweetest of ways. It's all good though cause it makes for a fun and informed read...well most of the time. I'm just one of those that gets sick of the GW talk on here once it gets going at a fever pitch.
Hmmm. I'm still unsure how anything you just wrote applies to my polite answer to GeorgiaStormz' polite question.

Since you are "on my side" and all, maybe instead of criticizing me for answering as I did, you could criticize the person who claimed the climate scientists at NOAA are engaged in a conspiracy. That would help a bit more, I bet... ;-)
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You know, I think pple get too worked about "police" in this blog. Makes me wonder what you been doing if you keep saying "I een doin' nuttin!" and watching for the cops...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22583


Anybody notice this little critter in the central Atlantic. It's attached to a front, but it might have a chance...

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Quoting RickWPB:

You need to read the whole statement. "0% in the next 48 hours." So maybe in 72 hours or 96 hours it may be 10% or more chance.


I did read it my friend..and I realize that 48-72-96 hrs. is what they mean...but if it has Any potential..and Where it is located..Moving along at 14mph..and a TC/TD does form..People will not have time to evacuate if necessary..so in my opinion,if it has any potential at all it should be at Least a 10 pecenter or more..or if no potential then drop it altogether..local governments rely on their predictions and reliability..they cannot respond in time if not given a window in which to do so..
Once again let me say I mean no dis-respect to you RickWPB or anyone else here at WU..my beef is with the "0" percent call and nothing more.. :)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Dangerous system strengthening at a good clip.





Still heading for Hong Kong?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The track forecast for Vicente has shifted way north:



This is a dangerous situation for southern China anywhere west of Hong Kong with flooding and mudslides likely:



I find it hard to believe this to be only a CAT 1 cyclone. If it is, then it is by far and away the best looking CAT one I have ever seen. Looks more like a CAT 2 border line 3 judging by satellite presentations. Hope they are ready over there.

My bad, just seen it was upgraded to 943 mb. 102 kt. hurricane. I'd say she hasn't peaked yet, just how close is this supposed to get to Hong Kong?
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Oh where, oh where have the hurricanes gone, oh where, oh where could they be?

It's as dead as a doornail in the Atlantic Basin,
with ample dry air and shear,

but wait, just wait for a little while more,
as August is coming around,

It is famed in this month for significant hurricanes to form, in these otherwise anomalous years.

For Betsy, Andrew, and Alicia too, caught many by suprise, so wait, just wait, don't let your radar down,

cause we're not yet done with this year!
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ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2012 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 21:19:04 N Lon : 113:54:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 943.6mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#

5.5 6.0 6.6

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157. flsky
Quoting 954FtLCane:


Lets just say you have a view on GW that you defend vehemently. I do believe there is GW so I'm on your side many times but sometimes you tend to knock people over the head with facts and not necessarily write it in the sweetest of ways. It's all good though cause it makes for a fun and informed read...well most of the time. I'm just one of those that gets sick of the GW talk on here once it gets going at a fever pitch.


I think that some people just need to get knocked over the head with FACTS!
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Quoting pcola57:


Ok RitaEvac,
It must be less than 10 and more than 0..
Got it..thanks.. :)
PS: I'm sure you know me well enough here that I mean no dis-respect..just think the NHC should make up it's mind if it is concerned or not..pretty simple if you ask me..and I do tip my hat off to them as they are the best at what they do... :)

You need to read the whole statement. "0% in the next 48 hours." So maybe in 72 hours % - or 96 hours - it could be 10% or more chance.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Again? Lol, we'll see have long that lasts.


Thru the rest of hurricane season. Expect lots of GW post over the coming weeks.
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The shear in the Caribbean has been high baha... So these "sleepers" may not have that much of a chance.
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Quoting floridaboy14:
hey cody its danny. looks like el nino stregnthned a little as thought the 3.4 region is to 0.5C

Again? Lol, we'll see have long that lasts.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Late September usually spells the end of season for TX anyway....


Was not aware of that but I found that only 3 hurricanes have directly struck Texas after Sept 24th since 1850.

Link TX safe point
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
With El-nino arriving expect areas across the Deep South and SE US to see a wet late Fall, Winter, and Spring. Any drought left after this years hurricane season will likely be wiped out come this up coming Winter. Also expect an abrupt end to the hurricane season after mid to late September as wind shear kicks into high gear across our basin.


Late September usually spells the end of season for TX anyway....
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149. Skyepony (Mod)
Hong Kong looking east..
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why no invest in the eastern gom?,has the nhc seen the visible loop lately?,the euro seems plausible
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The NAO has been negative since mid-May.
hey cody its danny. looks like el nino stregnthned a little as thought the 3.4 region is to 0.5C
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Quoting 954FtLCane:


Lets just say you have a view on GW that you defend vehemently. I do believe there is GW so I'm on your side many times but sometimes you tend to knock people over the head with facts and not necessarily write it in the sweetest of ways. It's all good though cause it makes for a fun and informed read...well most of the time. I'm just one of those that gets sick of the GW talk on here once it gets going at a fever pitch.


And even when he presents facts... I haven't seen one person go: okay you're right.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i new it wont won't develope in the 1st place
Yeah... most of us did... just glad to have something to watch after a week of "nuttin'"....

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This is a completely normal weather pattern for Florida in July. I don't really understand why everyone is hyped over this... maybe it's because we've gone without a tropical storm to track for so long lol
You got it... though I don't recall us getting this big of a a Twave blowup most July's.


Quoting washingtonian115:
Guys I just don't see that dry air mass out by Africa breaking down any time soon.We need the MJO to help break it down(and that won't be coming until the end of the month).The tropical waves have been getting vaporized as soon as they come off of Africa.Lol.
Frankly, I never expected all that much from the CV season this year to begin with. What we saw yesterday is more of what I expect: a series of "sleeper" Twaves that blow up when they get to more favorable conditions W of 50W [i.e. just east of the E Car, or in the W Car, or in the area N of the Greater Antilles]. Unless we get some serious interruption to development in the form of el Nino conditions, I expect we'll see something well before the end of August. IMO the minute the high pressure we've been experiencing breaks down or even backs off slightly, we're going to see some action.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22583
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
953 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

GMZ850-853-856-870-873-876-231700-
953 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...

AT 948 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS 35 NM SOUTHWEST
OF ANCLOTE KEY...OR ABOUT 27 NM WEST OF INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD
SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2734 8360 2765 8370 2781 8375 2808 8375
2820 8375 2844 8373 2880 8395 2910 8291
2857 8270 2824 8283 2784 8291 2754 8280
2724 8260 2674 8231 2644 8223 2614 8294
2653 8316 2686 8334 2710 8349
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

New Orleans "survived" during Hurricane Katrina. That doesn't mean the damage won't be extensive.


its supposed to turn anyway.
Hong kong should be pretty industrailized an informed, should cut the risk down a bit
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Quoting Neapolitan:
"GW POlice"? Someone politely asked a question; it was politely answered. That's how conversations should be carried out, no?


Lets just say you have a view on GW that you defend vehemently. I do believe there is GW so I'm on your side many times but sometimes you tend to knock people over the head with facts and not necessarily write it in the sweetest of ways. It's all good though cause it makes for a fun and informed read...well most of the time. I'm just one of those that gets sick of the GW talk on here once it gets going at a fever pitch.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The NAO has been negative since mid-May.


and then it went positive.
Watch it be positive all winter and me not get any snow.
I see how this goes
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
550 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-232000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
550 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE PENINSULA
TODAY WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH. IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHEN PASSING...
WITH A FEW SPOTS RECEIVING UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
AS MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH. THESE HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS INLAND LAKES
TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A WATERSPOUT OVER THE NEAR SHORE
AND INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS MID TO LATE WEEK WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB TO THE 101 TO 106 RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
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I'm not a China-Cane expert by any means, but this one looks pretty bad.

(At least) A Modestly intensifying typhoon veering into a highly populated city.



(AS of 13:33 zulu)

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


That's because it's only been scattered and not everyone has been getting rain. The only to put a nice dent in that drought would be to have a nice tropical system move thru.


it was pretty widespread last weak
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
CFS doesn't paint a pretty picture for the Atlantic in terms of the MJO entering the basin until late August.



Worth noting that MJO is much less of a factor for August onwards, as the Atlantic will be moist regardless. Look at the EPAC for example, it's been cranking out several storms in a downward MJO phase.
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...................this is headed northward, coastal Georgia might want to keep a good eye on this blob..remember even without development..it thru 80 mph winds here yesterday AND it was all the way down near miami gee..development or not..its a trouble maker for sure with tons of rain,wind and lightning
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Quoting hydrus:
Looks like our negative NAO is coming too..

The NAO has been negative since mid-May.
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Not a good situation at all.



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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Just in case any has missed it El-nino is pretty much here.

ENSO: CPC 7/23/12 Update=Nino 3.4 warms up to +0.5C
Looks like our negative NAO is coming too..
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BAY AREA --
A swath of thunderstorms with high wind and heavy rain will be in the Bay area through Monday night, as a tropical wave begins moving farther north from southern Florida.

According to Bay News 9 Meteorologist Juli Marquez, rain chances in the Bay area will be very high today, with frequent scattered thunderstorms through Monday night.

Rain showers lingered south and southeast of the Bay area early Monday, but that will change later in the day.

"We will see some rain and heavy showers later today,'' Marquez said. "Nothing is in the Bay area early, but there will be heavy storms increasing in the afternoon."

The tropical wave will not develop into a tropical storm, but there will be very large amounts of showers and storms.

Temperatures will stay near 90 degrees, and there is a 90 percent chance of rain Monday and a 60 percent chance Tuesday.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:

City will survives, although the deaths will be little high. Sorry for my broken English.

New Orleans "survived" during Hurricane Katrina. That doesn't mean the damage won't be extensive.
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128. Skyepony (Mod)
93W is new. Vicente is about to make landfall..click pic for loop.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:
I see...the GW police are on today. Watch every word you say!!
"GW police"? Someone politely asked a question; it was politely answered. That's how conversations should be carried out, no?
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Quoting 954FtLCane:
I see both the blog police and the GW police are on today. Watch every word you say!!

Asides from that nice cool cloudy summer day in s fla. Cooler than average..relatively speaking of course. I'm not looking at previous records while I'm writing this. ;-)


I see that.
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With El-nino arriving expect areas across the Deep South and SE US to see a wet late Fall, Winter, and Spring. Any drought left after this years hurricane season will likely be wiped out come this up coming Winter. Also expect an abrupt end to the hurricane season after mid to late September as wind shear kicks into high gear across our basin.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
???

City will survives, although the deaths will be little high. Sorry for my broken English.
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I see both the blog police and the GW police are on today. Watch every word you say!!

Asides from that nice cool cloudy summer day in s fla. Cooler than average..relatively speaking of course. I'm not looking at previous records while I'm writing this. ;-)
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Quoting RitaEvac:


The "Golden Rule" is if it's highlighted it's always more than 0%


Ok RitaEvac,
It must be less than 10 and more than 0..
Got it..thanks.. :)
PS: I'm sure you know me well enough here that I mean no dis-respect..just think the NHC should make up it's mind if it is concerned or not..pretty simple if you ask me..and I do tip my hat off to them as they are the best at what they do... :)
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Just in case any has missed it El-nino is pretty much here.

ENSO: CPC 7/23/12 Update=Nino 3.4 warms up to +0.5C
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Quoting pcola57:


My "B12" checked ok...
But really..they should make it at least a 10 percent if they are still concerned about it..
But "0".. as Pat would say pfft.. :)


The "Golden Rule" is if it's highlighted it's always more than 0%
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Quoting ncstorm:


If my B12 is working right today, I have seen the 0 percent develop into tropical storms..I dont know about hurricanes though?


My "B12" checked ok...
But really..they should make it at least a 10 percent if they are still concerned about it..
But "0".. as Pat would say pfft.. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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