June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Typhoon VICENTE: Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds



Typhoon VICENTE: Modelled wind field at 0 hours lead
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77 washingtonian115: The Atlantic is deader than a dead raccoon laying in the road that's been hit by a car several times.

And worse, ya can't even play frisbee with it.
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126 hours in

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215. wpb
http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/radars/radar.htmhttp:/ /www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/radars/rad_256_png/2d256rad ar_201207240000.png
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Actually, it's only a Cat 1

Unofficially it's at least a Category 3.
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Quoting LargoFl:
............................sure looks like its moving north not northwest huh


It will go POOF in a few hours once thunderstorms start blowing up over the FL Penisula. So bottomline this will not make it to GA.
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Some storm out there in the wpac, I wouldnt want to be in its path. A cat1 is being conservative with this storm.

23/1432 UTC 21.4N 113.9E T5.0/5.0 VICENTE -- West Pacific
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7978
I actually read through Dr. Master's entry and I saw nothing mention of GW or AGW..
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Thats looks like a strong storm, stronger than a cat1.
Hong Kong better be prepared for this storm.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 937.1mb/109.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.5

I keep looking at this and thinking "Mobile Bay, baby".... I seriously anticipate a right-side jog so this thing goes right up the Pearl River Delta / Estuary... HUGE amount of shipping comes through this area, and a large slowmoving cat 2 storm could take storm surge for miles inland... not to mention how far up the river they could see flooding... IOW... potentially a very bad situation.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22830
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Tue July 24 2012
Location of Eye: 20.8º N Lat 114.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 157 km South of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 176 km SSE of Macau
Distance 3: 374 km SW of Shantou, China
Distance 4: 419 km ESE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 5: 434 km ENE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 6: 445 km ENE of Qionghai, China
Distance 7: 711 km NW of Laoag City
Distance 8: 989 km NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Western Guangdong
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PhT Mon Jul 23
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114 hours in
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June Co2

co2now.org

395.77ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for June 2012






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130846
ALERT ATCF MIL 90X XXX 120722180000
2012072218
9.9 250.2
12.2 241.2
150
10.0 249.8
222100
1207222100
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED //
WTPN21 PGTW 222100 COR
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222100Z JUL 12//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 222100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 109.8W TO 12.2N 118.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 221731Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0N 110.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 232100Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 120.0W
//
NNNN

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WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS
AN EXPANDING EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS
COASTAL CHINA. RADAR IMAGERY AND POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW PROVIDE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITIONING OF TY 09W. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BASED
PREDOMINANTLY ON THE 4.5/4.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW, RJTD AND
KNES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LLCC AND IS HELPING TO
VENT THE SYSTEM IN THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD CHANNEL, LEADING TO
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 06 HOURS, BUT
WILL BE CAPPED AS TY 09W BEGINS TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS CAUSING
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL SURFACE FICTIONAL EFFECTS LEAD TO DISSIPATION
OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK INTO SOUTHERN CHINA, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECASTED TRACK AND WEAKENING TREND.//
NNNN

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looks like a TD on the GFS..starts at 90 hours..this is 102 hours in..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16287
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The NAO has been negative since mid-May.


A persistent negative NAO is also a trait of El Nino. Interesting how we have switched from positive all winter and spring into negative as we have moved later into the year.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Thats looks like a strong storm, stronger than a cat1.
Hong Kong better be prepared for this storm.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 937.1mb/109.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.5

I keep looking at this and thinking "Mobile Bay, baby".... I seriously anticipate a right-side jog so this thing goes right up the Pearl River Delta / Estuary... HUGE amount of shipping comes through this area, and a large slowmoving cat 2 storm could take storm surge for miles inland... not to mention how far up the river they could see flooding... IOW... potentially a very bad situation.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22830
Tropical Cyclone Warnings

Bulletin issued at 23:25 HKT 23/Jul/2012
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Increasing Gale or Storm Signal, No. 9, is in force.

This means that winds are expected to increase significantly as Vicente moves closer to Hong Kong.

Typhoon Vicente has intensified into a severe typhoon.

At 11 p.m., Vicente was centred about 130 kilometres south-southwest of Hong Kong (near 21.2 degrees north 113.9 degrees east) and is forecast to move northwest or west-northwest at about 20 kilometres per hour in the general direction of the region to the west of the Pearl River Estuary.

In the past few hours, Vicente intensified rapidly into a severe typhoon and moved in a more northerly direction, edging closer to Hong Kong. Parts of the territory is already affected by storm force winds. According to the latest forecast track, Vicente is expected to skirt within 100 kilometres to the southwest of Hong Kong, towards the region to the west of the Pearl River Estuary. As the direction of local winds will turn to east to southeast, places previously sheltered from the winds will become exposed. Members of the public should be on the alert. Do not go outside.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Ngong Ping, Tate's Cairn and Waglan Island were 147, 116 and 112 kilometres per hour respectively.

A high water level of about 3.0 metres above chart datum is expected at Quarry Bay between midnight and 3 a.m. The high water level may cause flooding in low-lying areas.

(Precautionary Announcements)

1. Do not go outside. If you are reasonably protected, stay where you are and keep well away from all windows. Close all interior doors and make sure children are confined to the least exposed part of your home. On no account should you touch electric cables that have been blown loose.

2. Stay away from exposed windows and doors because glass, already under strain from wind pressure, will shatter if a flying object should hit it. Make sure you have a safe place to shelter, should windows be broken. You should only fix broken windows and doors when there is no danger in doing so.

3. Since seas are very high to phenomenal and the current is strong with changing direction, you are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

4. Flights at Hong Kong International Airport may be affected by the weather. Please contact your airline for the latest flight information before departing for the airport
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TPPN10 PGTW 231456

A. TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE)

B. 23/1432Z

C. 21.3N

D. 113.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. RI CAUSED T# TO BREAK
CONSTRAINTS, DEVELOPING 3.5 T #S IN 24 HR. OW EYE SURR BY DG
WITH COLDEST SHADE B YIELDS A 6.0 + .5 FOR A BANDING FEATURE
YIELDS A 6.5 DT. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/1001Z 20.8N 114.5E SSMS
23/1003Z 20.9N 114.4E SSMS
23/1235Z 21.0N 114.3E SSMI


BELMONDO
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Kansas Supercell
From Reddit
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


negative NAO gives more snow.

It really helps down south to help get us a measly bit of snow in winter.
Thanxs, I guess I just forgot all about that and what it does.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Category 3 typhoon, easily.


Actually, it's only a Cat 1
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I forget, is it positive or negative NAO that is a factor for allowing the artic air to come down and give the great lakes more snow. Usually I remember this but for some reason I forgot.


negative NAO gives more snow.

It really helps down south to help get us a measly bit of snow in winter.
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Quoting AussieStorm:






Nice one Aussie Storm
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Category 3 typhoon, easily.

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Anybody notice this little critter in the central Atlantic. It's attached to a front, but it might have a chance...

R u kidding? We've been watching that one since 3 days before it came off the continent... lol

If there even slightly conducive condition in our area in about 4 - 7 days, I think that could make for some interesting moments. It this our next Sunday excitement??? We shall see...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22830
Thats looks like a strong storm, stronger than a cat1.
Hong Kong better be prepared for this storm.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 937.1mb/109.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.5

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7978
............................sure looks like its moving north not northwest huh
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Daily Analysis...

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Seriously, this is looking bad for Hong Kong.
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Quoting LargoFl:
...................this is headed northward, coastal Georgia might want to keep a good eye on this blob..remember even without development..it thru 80 mph winds here yesterday AND it was all the way down near miami gee..development or not..its a trouble maker for sure with tons of rain,wind and lightning
This would be cool if the Piedmont area of GA could get some of that rain...

Quoting washingtonian115:
The shear in the Caribbean has been high baha... So these "sleepers" may not have that much of a chance.
The shear in the Car generally lessens in early August... I'm looking at that ridge extending from the EPac as a player in the shear creation, along w/ our own AB high, and thinking both will moderate by the 1st week in August. Most of the Twaves we are seeing are vigorous enough to spin up with just a slight relaxation in the high-induced shear.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22830
Severe Weather Risk on Monday from the Northern Great Plains to Western New England
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and western New England. The risks will include large hail and damaging winds, however an isolated tornado can not be ruled out in the Lower Great Lakes region. People in these areas should stay abreast to the latest NWS forecasts and warnings.

I got a chane of hail, wind, and even a tornado today, already 90F with gusty winds.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7978
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172 >174-GMZ656-657-676-
240530-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TODAY. THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND
10-15 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.

TEMPERATURES: WARMER TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
COULD LEAD TO HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 104 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND AROUND 105 READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD COULD CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, COULD LEAD
TO HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO NEAR 108 IN ALL AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST
READINGS IN THE INTERIOR EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION: WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Just offshore Hong Kong




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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


and then it went positive.
Watch it be positive all winter and me not get any snow.
I see how this goes
I forget, is it positive or negative NAO that is a factor for allowing the artic air to come down and give the great lakes more snow. Usually I remember this but for some reason I forgot.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7978
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Again? Lol, we'll see have long that lasts.

haha i really hope its just a fluctuation. the atmosphere wont be el nino till the end of september which could mean a slightly above normal season
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it was pretty widespread last weak


The drought monitor map takes into account many different factors, not just rainfall.

"The U.S. Drought Monitor maps are based on expert assessment of variables including (but not limited to) the Palmer Drought Severity Index, soil moisture, streamflow, precipitation, and measures of vegetation stress, as well as reports of drought impacts. It is a joint effort of several agencies." Link

It's no surprise that even after heavy rain, drought conditions remain within the variables used to determine drought.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
You know, I think pple get too worked about "police" in this blog. Makes me wonder what you been doing if you keep saying "I een doin' nuttin!" and watching for the cops...


I'm actually blogging from prison but I have no problems with the popo. ;-)
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Just offshore Hong Kong
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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