June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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216 hrs and the low/TD of Africa is chugging along.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
204 hours in

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16223
204 HR in... we got 2 waves (1008 mb and 1011 mb).

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Quoting ncstorm:
I actually read through Dr. Master's entry and I saw nothing mention of GW or AGW..


Nope he didn't, you are correct. I believe this stems back to a comment I made on Neo's comment to Georgia stromz England comment on the previous page. A 2 comment exchange I had with Neo.

Anyways I will not comment on this any longer as I'd be feeding into exactly what Im trying to avoid which is an argument on the discussion of GW.
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GFS develops a storm, but has a much different pattern then what we've had the last 2-3 years... This is a dangerous pattern if the storm does form.
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192 hrs, look off the African coast
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
look like the wave train is about to leave the station..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16223
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We got 1007 mb wave off Africa at 192 Hr.

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That's hot water there.
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Rapid sea ice retreat in June
July 5, 2012


Arctic sea ice extent declined quickly in June, setting record daily lows for a brief period in the middle of the month. Strong ice loss in the Kara, Bering, and Beaufort seas, and Hudson and Baffin bays, led the overall retreat. Northern Hemisphere snow extent was unusually low in May and June, continuing a pattern of rapid spring snow melt seen in the past six years.
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183 hours in

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16223
For Conspiracy Theorists:

Dr. Masters sells out to the Weather Channel and suddenly Atlantic Tropical Development drops to ZERO ...!!!!

COINCIDENCE????
I THINK NOT!!!

(JUST kidding.... just kidding~)
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This blog is still way heavier on the tropics.

This is Dr. Masters entry.


Period.

Feel free to start your first Blog entry.

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Wow...

12z GFS has two (very) impressive waves exiting Africa with at least one developing.

Tis the season?
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Map of the Pearl River Delta, showing large population centers and river distribution channels... I am getting the impression this area is largely low-lying, though not as bad as say, LA....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22726
Quoting Patrap:
I'm just one of those that gets sick of the GW talk on here once it gets going at a fever pitch.

Well that's just too bad, as this is Dr. Masters entry and if we want to discus AGW as it stands today, we shall.

As it is related to the topic at Hand.

IE, the entry.

We have Tons of new server space with TWC.

So feel free to open YOUR own entry to blather endlessly on whateva' floats yer boat.


Thanks for clearing that up. I wasn't aware that AGW was related to weather ;-). I get the AGW discussions on here but so often though it's the same argument over and over.... the same argument.... again over and over.
This blog is still way heavier on the tropics. I will just do what I have in the past and that is visit when the tropics are busy and try to avoid it when AGW gets at a fever pitch.
This is my choice. This is DR Master's blog but we are all part of it as well. If I disagree or don't like a certain discussion I will, at times, put in my 2 cents worth but you won't see me telling people to go somewhere else, start their own blogs, etc. I will leave that up to the individual
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Really strengthening right now. Even if its not a major surge threat, still a major wind/rain threat.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 937.0mb/109.8kt

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting washingtonian115:
What's this?.The GFS shows a storm in the Atlantic?.Don't get your hopes up now.The atmosphere needs to really moisten up in the next few days in order for that to happen.


The far Eastern Atlantic looks moist. These next few waves should moisten the rest of the Atlantic.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Strengthening TS here.



dont get ahead of yourself
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Quoting washingtonian115:
What's this?.The GFS shows a storm in the Atlantic?.Don't get your hopes up now.The atmosphere needs to really moisten up in the next few days in order for that to happen.


Wash, you made the atlantic mad..LOL..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16223
162 hrs with 1007mb
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
162 hours in

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16223
Damn, our first cape verde already?

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What's this?.The GFS shows a storm in the Atlantic?.Don't get your hopes up now.The atmosphere needs to really moisten up in the next few days in order for that to happen.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Final T should round out near 6.0

If this hits between Yangjiang and Zhongshan, there is the distinct possibility of some significant surge issues.

This system is wrapping up quickly with a huge atmospheric footprint, so its also a good bet that this is also moving a good deal of ocean. Hope everyone is prepared.

The pattern in the canopy seems to yeild an intensity of around 95-100 knots. The inner-core is too impressive for a supposed 70 knots...



As far as surge goes, it might have strengthened so quickly and so close to landfall that it might not be able to generate a major hurricane-type surge.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
noting two 1008 mb lows (another one leaving Africa). Btw, where is this? I lost the link.


Here you go.

Link
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like Ernesto here.



slippig in during a break in the high, might stay pretty far south.
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Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2012 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 21:35:12 N Lon : 113:46:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 937.0mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.1 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +0.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92km
- Environmental MSLP : 997mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.2 degrees





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Strengthening TS here.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like Ernesto here.

noting two 1008 mb lows (another one leaving Africa). Btw, where is this? I lost the link.
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Final T should round out near 6.0

If this hits between Yangjiang and Zhongshan, there is the distinct possibility of some significant surge issues.

This system is wrapping up quickly with a huge atmospheric footprint, so its also a good bet that this is also moving a good deal of ocean. Hope everyone is prepared.

The pattern in the canopy seems to yeild an intensity of around 80-95 knots. The inner-core is too impressive for a supposed 70 knots...

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150 hours, still has it in the same area with 1008mb pressure.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Tropical Cyclone Warnings

Bulletin issued at 23:45 HKT 23/Jul/2012
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Increasing Gale or Storm Signal, No. 9, is in force.

This means that winds are expected to increase significantly as Vicente moves closer to Hong Kong.

At midnight, Severe Typhoon Vicente was centred about 110 kilometres south-southwest of Hong Kong (near 21.4 degrees north 113.7 degrees east) and is forecast to move northwest at about 20 kilometres per hour in the general direction of the region to the west of the Pearl River Estuary at first. Vicente will move towards west-northwest later.

In the past few hours, Vicente intensified rapidly into a severe typhoon, edging closer to Hong Kong. Parts of the territory is already affected by storm force winds. According to the latest forecast track, Vicente is expected to skirt within 100 kilometres to the southwest of Hong Kong, towards the region to the west of the Pearl River Estuary. As the direction of local winds will turn to east to southeast, places previously sheltered from the winds will become exposed. Members of the public should be on the alert. Do not go outside.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Ngong Ping, Tate's Cairn and Cheung Chau Beach were 156, 125 and 114 kilometres per hour respectively.

A high water level of about 3.0 metres above chart datum is expected at Quarry Bay between midnight and 3 a.m. The high water level may cause flooding in low-lying areas.


thats already almost 100mph?
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6z GFS-150 hours


12z GFS-150 hours
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The Atlantic is deader than a dead raccoon laying in the road that's been hit by a car several times.


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Quoting BahaHurican:
What is JTCW saying windspeed-wise re Vicente?


241

WTPN31 PGTW 231500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 012

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

231200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 114.2E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 114.2E

---
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Quoting ncstorm:
144 hours in


wow its hanging together
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Looks like Ernesto here.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
What is JTCW saying windspeed-wise re Vicente?

TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 114.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
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144 hours in
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16223
Quoting Patrap:
TC Vicente

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery




Nice Pat!!
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What is JTCW saying windspeed-wise re Vicente?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22726
Tropical Cyclone Warnings

Bulletin issued at 23:45 HKT 23/Jul/2012
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Increasing Gale or Storm Signal, No. 9, is in force.

This means that winds are expected to increase significantly as Vicente moves closer to Hong Kong.

At midnight, Severe Typhoon Vicente was centred about 110 kilometres south-southwest of Hong Kong (near 21.4 degrees north 113.7 degrees east) and is forecast to move northwest at about 20 kilometres per hour in the general direction of the region to the west of the Pearl River Estuary at first. Vicente will move towards west-northwest later.

In the past few hours, Vicente intensified rapidly into a severe typhoon, edging closer to Hong Kong. Parts of the territory is already affected by storm force winds. According to the latest forecast track, Vicente is expected to skirt within 100 kilometres to the southwest of Hong Kong, towards the region to the west of the Pearl River Estuary. As the direction of local winds will turn to east to southeast, places previously sheltered from the winds will become exposed. Members of the public should be on the alert. Do not go outside.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Ngong Ping, Tate's Cairn and Cheung Chau Beach were 156, 125 and 114 kilometres per hour respectively.

A high water level of about 3.0 metres above chart datum is expected at Quarry Bay between midnight and 3 a.m. The high water level may cause flooding in low-lying areas.
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The Hong kong area is about to get ran over by a stron typhoon.
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1007 mb
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Quoting Patrap:
TC Vicente

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Some serious hot towers saying hello there.
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TC Vicente

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


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Typhoon VICENTE: Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds



Typhoon VICENTE: Modelled wind field at 0 hours lead
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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