June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Bearing down:
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C'mon Atlantic your suppose to be dead?.The disturbance in the Gulf is still trying to get its act together..Maybe a weak T.D at best if anything becomes of it....
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Updated SPC map


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15268
Nada on ASCAT...

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Quoting MississippiWx:
To me, this little dude is strengthening quietly. There has been a noticeable increase in convection with it, as well as a noticeable effect on the environment surrounding it...



LOOK, Y'ALL!!! There's a wave!!! It'll be a Category 1 hurricane by tomorrow!!!

Sarcasm Flag: ON ;)

Anyway, I've been watching it from GOES satellite. It got a chance to develops, but small one. Still impressive.
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Wind shear has lowered dramatically across the Caribbean.



Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


if it is strong enough to be tropical storms, and if dry air doesnt kill them.

And if they dont get torn to pieces

They are definitely strong enough on the model to be classified as tropical storms.

And ripped apart? You mean by wind shear? The GFS has anticyclones over both systems at the time. We'll have to see how big of a problem SAL/Dry air is.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31987
What direction is this weak low moving and how much time does it have over the gulf. Could it become something or just an area to watch.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Numerous Hong Kong Webcams
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The worst of Vicente is about to come into Hong Kong.
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To me, this little dude is strengthening quietly. There has been a noticeable increase in convection with it, as well as a noticeable effect on the environment surrounding it...

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Quoting Patrap:
WP092012 - Typhoon VICENTE

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)



leading edge is the weak side, seems S and N of the center will have it worse
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Florida Hi-res 1km Visible Satellite

Click for loop
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There are none so blind as those who will not see.

Today's Truism of the Day.
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There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters


That was quick... :) It's a wait and see at this point for possible model consensus before the wave emerges off the coast and, to see how well it holds together after it gets past the Cape Verde islands. We have seen some pretty impressive waves emerge off the coast and fizzle out this time of the year in past seasons and it is very dry out there off the African coast and in the Central Atlantic at the moment. Just have to see what happens.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If the GFS comes true, which is a good possibility given its accuracy so far this season, we may not end July without a tropical cyclone or two after all.


if it is strong enough to be tropical storms, and if dry air doesnt kill them.

And if they dont get torn to pieces
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Quoting ncstorm:
I actually read through Dr. Master's entry and I saw nothing mention of GW or AGW..


First part of the title -"June 2012: Earth's 4th Warmest June"...

Stuff like "...; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record,...."

"Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record...."

"The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report."


There are none so blind as those who will not see.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
So we get Ernesto but he is killed off and Florence hangs on...
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Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

click image for LOOP

ZOOM is active

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


the wave death train?
Things are only picking up now, should begin to see development soon.
Should be more waves after that as by then its August.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting Neapolitan:
So you won't tell people to go away, but you've got no problem with telling people to edit their words to suit you? Got it. Thanks!


my last comment on this whole thing:
Send me WU mail if you would like to further discuss this.
Thanks

Now back to the blog
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Not a good image

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I see there is some hopes with the latest GFS :) Well, august is coming..
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WP092012 - Typhoon VICENTE

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

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That's it for this run. Two strong waves with one of them maybe a tropical storm.
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At 324 hrs its gone but this is a looong way out. The GFS is telling us to start watching Africa for development.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
DO NOT focus on the strength of the storms... Focus on the steering pattern....

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Massive High:


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If the GFS comes true, which is a good possibility given its accuracy so far this season, we may not end July without a tropical cyclone or two after all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31987
Quoting wxchaser97:
264 weakens to 1010mb


the wave death train?
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Kind of surprised more people aren't interested in this critter. It has less convection than yesterday, but is overall more organized than yesterday as the circulation is more at the surface today. The NHC's circle said the system was moving north, this weak low is moving WNW which will give it more time over water. Development chances are still low, of course. However, it's still pretty interesting.



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Ideologist hate facts, we understand.

How bout a nice cold Fresca ?

Spppfttt'
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The UK may have been cool and wet this summer, but in many areas it's warm right now, and in fact some of the hottest weather this summer is expected to set in over the next few days:

Hot
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

Thanks for clearing that up. I wasn't aware that AGW was related to weather ;-). I get the AGW discussions on here but so often though it's the same argument over and over.... the same argument.... again over and over.
This blog is still way heavier on the tropics. I will just do what I have in the past and that is visit when the tropics are busy and try to avoid it when AGW gets at a fever pitch.
This is my choice. This is DR Master's blog but we are all part of it as well. If I disagree or don't like a certain discussion I will, at times, put in my 2 cents worth but you won't see me telling people to go somewhere else, start their own blogs, etc. I will leave that up to the individual
So you won't tell people to go away, but you've got no problem with telling them to edit their words to suit you? Got it. Thanks!
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300 Hr in. Not strong anymore at 1014 mb.

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On da tropics..


Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.
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Even if it stays away from Hong Kong/Macau,there's all these towns and cities on the coast south of there,which are below the hills/mountains to the west of them.I wonder if all these area's are as prepared as is Hong Kong?
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255 hmmmm

I decide to post my tropics non AGW comments on here and will continue to do so...

PERIOD

so nah nah nah nah...nah nah....

looks like the odds are with me tropically wise since we are in the middle of hurricane season.
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That High... Nothing is going out to sea on this run.



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228 HR. GPS kills first wave. Second wave still going.

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Quoting 954FtLCane:


Nope he didn't, you are correct. I believe this stems back to a comment I made on Neo's comment to Georgia stromz England comment on the previous page. A 2 comment exchange I had with Neo.

Anyways I will not comment on this any longer as I'd be feeding into exactly what Im trying to avoid which is an argument on the discussion of GW.


Wise as an Owl.

: )
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Ncstorm.... the Atlantic ain't ready yet.What?.Now the GFS shows 2 storms developing?.What I'd ever do to the Atlantic?.


LOL..I dont know Wash, but you made it mad..Im holding you responsible..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15268
1 tropical storm:



Two tropical storm:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31987
Here comes the heat:
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264 weakens to 1010mb
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow...

12z GFS has two (very) impressive waves exiting Africa with at least one developing.

Tis the season?
as the moon goes full the storms dev 1 by 1
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216 HR in. Still two waves.

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Ncstorm.... the Atlantic ain't ready yet.What?.Now the GFS shows 2 storms developing?.What I'd ever do to the Atlantic?.
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90 GeorgiaStormz If England was cool, why is it still under red dots for most of its area?

Has to do with the size and location of the individual temperature "pixel"s (measurement areas) and how they overlap the BritishIsles. The "pixel"s split the main island into several pieces and combines the temperature of each piece's land area with temperatures off of each land area's coast.
With ocean area temperatures above normal because they're warmed by above-normal SeaSurfaceTemperatures, combining the larger-area above-normal ocean-temperature with the lower-area below-normal land-temperature results in an above-normal "pixel"temperature in the "pixel"s that contain both land and ocean.
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216 hrs and the low/TD of Africa is chugging along.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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