June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Quoting pottery:

These are Facts, right?
Or is this part of the Conspiracy by Al Gore and them?

I'm so confused.....
Couldn't keep Tipper happy
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Hong Kong and surrounded areas are about to get wiped off the map.Sorta like Katrina with the upper gulf coast.
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Amazing how strong the typhoon went. A Category 4, if I'm not mistaken.

Btw... Golden Correl? Yuck.
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Sorry if someone already posted this:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA INTO MUCH OF NY...VT...WRN MA/CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231632Z - 231800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WHERE STRONG HEATING WAS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE CU WAS
FOCUSED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL NY INTO
CNTRL/ERN PA. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIN HAS BEEN
DIMINISHED AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG EXISTS WITH DECENT
PARCEL ACCELERATION THROUGH THE PROFILE. SHEAR PROFILES ARE
CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AS
WELL AS MARGINAL SHEAR...SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS MARGINAL HAIL
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363. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Hurricane Signal, No. 10, is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 118 kilometers per hour or more are expected.

At 1 a.m., Severe Typhoon Vicente was centered about 100 kilometers southwest of Hong Kong Observatory and is forecast to move to northwest about 20 kilometers per hour towards the region to the west of the Pearl River Estuary then will move west-northwestwards later.

Vicente is expected to be closest to Hong Kong in the next few hours, passing within 100 km of the Hong Kong Observatory. The eyewall of Vicente will come near to the southwestern part of Hong Kong, bringing hurricane force winds to those areas.
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Quoting OldLeatherneck:


It also appears certain that Greenland will have another record melt-year of the Greenland Ice Sheet. If that happens, the models for predicting sea-level rise will have to be adjusted upward. In just the month of June, we have witnessed the following dramatic events on Greenland:

1. Record low levels of the Albedo at all elevations.
2. Temperatures above freezing for 5 consecutive days at the Summit (Elevation 3200 meters)
3. Peterman Glacier breaks off an ice island 2X the size of Manhattan. Second major calving event in two years.
4. Major flooding of the Watson River at Kangerlussuag caused extensive damage when melt waters were flowing at 3.5 million liters/sec.

Next year doesn,t promise to be any better in the artcic regions with global CO2 levels increasing, regional methane emssions increasing rapidly and much decreased Albedo.

These are Facts, right?
Or is this part of the Conspiracy by Al Gore and them?

I'm so confused.....
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Quoting Skyepony:
That station disappeared.. here's one near by.



Pressure reading looks a little off.
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This is the latest surface map and it shows no low but one is developing. Can see a spin on radar.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh? Just the other day you said it wasn't scary.


before i played it.
every time i walk by a window at night i swear i see him. And hes in my house too.

the worst part is that some people think he is real..., so i cant dismiss it as easily as i could scary movie characters when i was little.

anyway, im not afraid of it.
mostly
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Quoting yqt1001:
Looks like Vicente has pulled some insane intensification just off of the coast of China. ADT is a testament to that. Even SAB/TAFB is screaming category 4. JTWC even had to amend its last update of 70kts to increase it to 120kts! Could you imagine if this had more time over water?

RGB loop, Rainbow loop


Just your casual 50kt upgrade:

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh? Just the other day you said it wasn't scary.
Every Golden Corral is different.............Depends on the management
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356. Skyepony (Mod)
That station disappeared.. here's one near by.

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Looks like Vicente has pulled some insane intensification just off of the coast of China. ADT is a testament to that. Even SAB/TAFB is screaming category 4. JTWC even had to amend its last update of 70kts to increase it to 120kts! Could you imagine if this had more time over water?

RGB loop, Rainbow loop

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you have no idea how many bugs i have found in my food at Golden Corral.

And no thanks for Slender, ill never forgive you for tempting me to play that game.

Oh? Just the other day you said it wasn't scary.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Currently I'm worried about Macau, as the outer edge of Vicente's eyewall could impact that area with winds that will depend on how strong the storm actually is. Satellite imagery shows rapid intensification in the last 6 hours, Dvorak numbers up to 6.0 which indicates a possible category three typhoon. There are many urban low-lying areas in that region, and inland flooding is also a concern. The Pearl River, which suffered drought in early 2010, could experience major flooding along the valley and delta. An outflow band clashing with the jet stream could bring additional rains over areas such as Guangxi, Hunan, Shanxi, Hebei and Liaoning, after southwestern Beijing was hit with torrential rains: Link

__

I'm in the 30% severe wind zone right now. Currently the gusts are whistling at about 30 mph, though some places in Southern Ontario got 60 mph (100 km/h) winds and large hail yesterday.
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Wind shear is low in the gulf
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Golden Corral is better.


you have no idea how many bugs i have found in my food at Golden Corral.

And no thanks for Slender, ill never forgive you for tempting me to play that game.
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Bob Wallace needs to start his own blog........He seems to be upset with the other blogs that leaves out what he deems important
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A GOM Tropical Screaming meemie?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting BahaHurican:
I do nonetheless notice that the northern part of the UK is shown as cooler than average.


the tip is, yes
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Tallahassee
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting MississippiWx:
Out for a little while. Time for lunch! Hibachi, anyone??

Golden Corral is better.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Quoting wxchaser97:
192 hrs, look off the African coast


I know the GFS has done pretty good so far. Has anyone been really keeping tabs on it to see how it's doing? It would be nice to trust a model that far out but........Is it still the "you can't trust the models past 3-5 days?"
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Quoting Patrap:
Rapid sea ice retreat in June
July 5, 2012


Arctic sea ice extent declined quickly in June, setting record daily lows for a brief period in the middle of the month. Strong ice loss in the Kara, Bering, and Beaufort seas, and Hudson and Baffin bays, led the overall retreat. Northern Hemisphere snow extent was unusually low in May and June, continuing a pattern of rapid spring snow melt seen in the past six years.


It also appears certain that Greenland will have another record melt-year of the Greenland Ice Sheet. If that happens, the models for predicting sea-level rise will have to be adjusted upward. In just the month of June, we have witnessed the following dramatic events on Greenland:

1. Record low levels of the Albedo at all elevations.
2. Temperatures above freezing for 5 consecutive days at the Summit (Elevation 3200 meters)
3. Peterman Glacier breaks off an ice island 2X the size of Manhattan. Second major calving event in two years.
4. Major flooding of the Watson River at Kangerlussuag caused extensive damage when melt waters were flowing at 3.5 million liters/sec.

Next year doesn,t promise to be any better in the artcic regions with global CO2 levels increasing, regional methane emssions increasing rapidly and much decreased Albedo.
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Quoting aspectre:
90 GeorgiaStormz If England was cool, why is it still under red dots for most of its area?

Has to do with the size and location of the individual temperature "pixel"s (measurement areas) and how they overlap the BritishIsles. The "pixel"s split the main island into several pieces and combines the temperature of each piece's land area with temperatures off of each piece's coast.
With ocean area temperatures above normal because the SeaSurfaceTemperatures are above normal, combining the larger-area above-normal ocean-temperature with the lower-area below-normal land-temperature results in an above-normal "pixel"temperature in the "pixel"s that contain both land and sea.
I do nonetheless notice that the northern part of the UK is shown as cooler than average.
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Out for a little while. Time for lunch! Hibachi, anyone??
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From the NY TImes:

Loading the Climate Dice
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: July 22, 2012

Link
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Quoting Patrap:
WP092012 - Typhoon VICENTE

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)



Looks like landfall just south of Macau soon,unless it jogs right or left.......lol
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The NHC is going to have to move their circle out over the Gulf and increase the chances, at least slightly. They may not do it, but my unprofessional opine is that they should.

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338. Skyepony (Mod)
I see 80.5mph on a station on one of the little islands off Hong Kong. Can't get the station to pull up.
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Monday 23 July 2012
Condition: Sunny
Pressure: 29.83 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 91.8°F
Dewpoint: 69.1°F
Humidity: 48 %
Wind: SW 14 mph
Humidex: 106
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Quoting reedzone:
GFS develops a storm, but has a much different pattern then what we've had the last 2-3 years... This is a dangerous pattern if the storm does form.


Yup! If it stays that way,we won't see too many storms going fishing.
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105 pcola57: I've often wondered why the NHC posts a "near 0 percent" chance of development...
It sounds like someone is still in the back room at HQ going " come on..just one more roll!!"
..LOL .. :)

Tradition of rounding to the nearest 5 (including 10) units whether in knots, kilometres, miles, or percentage.
Due to that built-in rounding parameter, '0% chance' actually means better than no chance whatsoever but less than 2.5% percent chance'.
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Hmmm.... Analogues anyone?





Tropical Depression Five originated from a surface trough on August 7, extending from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across Florida, connected to a weak non-tropical low-pressure area located several hundred miles east-southeast of Jacksonville, Florida. Initially, development was not expected due to its close proximity to land, and strong wind shear. However, it gradually became better organized, and 24 hours later the National Hurricane Center gave it a 50% chance of developing within the next two days. After additional development, the low became a tropical depression late on August 10.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
National Data Buoy Center


Still really high surface pressures. That's probably going to be the biggest issue throughout it's life.
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might see some tornados today

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
National Data Buoy Center
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Ah c'mon now the shear in the Caribbean is weakening.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


dont know about being strong enought to be a TS.
When they are close to africa, everything comes off as 1008mb.

closer the the Carib that might be a TS, but out there it is more subjective to circumstances.

It's not a perfect rule, but typically when the model shows two closed isobars, it's organized enough to be classified as a TS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
tomorrow


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I know but I don't think that it has changed that much in that time...


I can tell it has changed a good bit just off visible. I'm not saying it's closed off by any means, but just looking at the clouds being pulled in I can tell it has changed some.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wind shear has lowered dramatically across the Caribbean.




They are definitely strong enough on the model to be classified as tropical storms.

And ripped apart? You mean by wind shear? The GFS has anticyclones over both systems at the time. We'll have to see how big of a problem SAL/Dry air is.
cody the first system is just a strong area of low pressure. the second one is aforming depression. the concern is wind shear and saharan air not by africa but closer to the carribean because water temps are warm enough for a storm to form
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wind shear has lowered dramatically across the Caribbean.




They are definitely strong enough on the model to be classified as tropical storms.

And ripped apart? You mean by wind shear? The GFS has anticyclones over both systems at the time. We'll have to see how big of a problem SAL/Dry air is.


dont know about being strong enought to be a TS.
When they are close to africa, everything comes off as 1008mb.

closer the the Carib that might be a TS, but out there it is more subjective to circumstances.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


True, but that was also 6 hours ago.


I know but I don't think that it has changed that much in that time...
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850 Vort is vastly better than yesterday or even earlier this morning...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wind shear has lowered dramatically across the Caribbean.




They are definitely strong enough on the model to be classified as tropical storms.

And ripped apart? You mean by wind shear? The GFS has anticyclones over both systems at the time. We'll have to see how big of a problem SAL/Dry air is.


I'm not looking at so much of the strength of those storms cause it's from the medium range to long range; however, the pattern shows NO recurvature (as predicted for this year). Look at the high pressures location and length. No storms will be recurving out to sea in the next 2 weeks. That's what I'm looking at right now. The strength of those storms will fluctuate as the models get closer to the formation.
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Quoting Grothar:


That looks like it wants to go to Macau
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Nada on ASCAT...



True, but that was also 6 hours ago.
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Bearing down:
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.