June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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418. yoboi
Quoting pottery:


0.00263%



my source is 80.0893%
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Official intensity went from 65 knots to 120 in one update.

well mom looks pissed
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55519
Observatory issues number 10 signal
24-07-2012

The Observatory has issued the hurricane signal number ten as winds from Typhoon Vicente batter Hong Kong. It's the first time the number 10 signal has been hoisted since Typhoon York in 1999.

According to the Hospital Authority, at least 34 people have sought treatment at Accident and Emergency departments of public hospitals with 14 of them being admitted. In Central, several people were knocked over by a flying board. A woman passed out and was taken to hospital.


Typhoon York was the first Signal 10 storm in HK since 1983, so they're not taking the severity lightly...

HK cyclone signals
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Current time in Hong Kong is 1:40 am
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Quoting yoboi:



how much of the melt there, is due to all the planes, ships, tractors, burning fossil fuels there on a daily basis????


0.00263%
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My new blog!

Derecho Round 2? Hope Not...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
kwgirl. and you have to endure the 1,000's of nuts for the lobsters this weekend......Not to mentions the old farts that look like Ernest
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Shear is lessening in the Caribbean combined with warm waters are turning the Caribbean into a more favorable enviorment.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pardon the language, but...

Holy crap! This isn't good.

20120723.1701.mtsat2.x.ir1km.09WVICENTE.120kts-933mb

Up to 140 mph sustained with higher gusts!




well at least the north side is weaker and the south side should weaken as this comes onshore.


is the jtwc a 10 minute wind speed?
i forgot
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Official intensity went from 70 knots to 120 in one update.

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408. yoboi
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


It also appears certain that Greenland will have another record melt-year of the Greenland Ice Sheet. If that happens, the models for predicting sea-level rise will have to be adjusted upward. In just the month of June, we have witnessed the following dramatic events on Greenland:

1. Record low levels of the Albedo at all elevations.
2. Temperatures above freezing for 5 consecutive days at the Summit (Elevation 3200 meters)
3. Peterman Glacier breaks off an ice island 2X the size of Manhattan. Second major calving event in two years.
4. Major flooding of the Watson River at Kangerlussuag caused extensive damage when melt waters were flowing at 3.5 million liters/sec.

Next year doesn,t promise to be any better in the artcic regions with global CO2 levels increasing, regional methane emssions increasing rapidly and much decreased Albedo.



how much of the melt there, is due to all the planes, ships, tractors, burning fossil fuels there on a daily basis????
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Post 404...

that's the one, Keeper.
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NHC gives EGOM no chance to develop.
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1. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
THIS BROAD DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WATER.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
XX/XX/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55519
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cam 2 N.P.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55519
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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In the meantime, the Wave that is just passing through the Southern Caribbean islands created some heavy rains last night and this morning here at 11n 61w.

The conditions in the south Caribbean sea are good, and appear to be getting better for this wave to keep going for a while.

Just a little something to watch...
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Quoting Patrap:
Hong Kong has been round long time and they are a very Typhoon savvy society.

Lets hold off on calamity until it actually occurs.


Thank You Patrap
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Link

120kts Gusting 145kts...wow
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Numerous Hong Kong Webcams
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
396. Skyepony (Mod)
Weather Station at the airport reporting every 1/2hr. Eyewall is coming up on it.
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High hail threat with these storms
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Happy Monday all! Got some rare summertime boomers here in the Sacramento, CA area overnight and into this morning. Got a great pic that my friend who works for the NOAA took early this morning. Enjoy!

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Hong Kong has decent infrastructure to handle a lot of flooding issues,hopefully it won't be too bad. As to the other cities in China,I really don't know.

Coastal villages will suffer big time, that's where we will unfortunately see many fatalities, especially because the storm was not supposed to be this strong and was supposed to track west into Vietnam, not China... People will be unprepared. Hong Kong will be fine though.
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Quoting Waltanater:
It's amazing you keep patronizing their chain! After the first incident I wouldn't go back to them at all.


my mom refuses to go, but my swim team goes sometimes and my dad likes it.

i just check my food nowadays.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Map of the Pearl River Delta, showing large population centers and river distribution channels... I am getting the impression this area is largely low-lying, though not as bad as say, LA....

As the description says, it is a river delta, which means sand and mud deposits. Easily washed away by flooding events. I hope those people have evacuated.
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Hong Kong Storm Surge and Tidal info:

A high water level of about 3.0 metres above chart datum is expected at Quarry Bay between midnight and 3 a.m. The high water level may cause flooding in low-lying areas.

Next High Tide is at 5.57 AM Hong Kong time with a norm Tidal Rise of 3.45 ft
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Pardon the language, but...

Holy crap.

20120723.1701.mtsat2.x.ir1km.09WVICENTE.120kts-933mb

Up to 140 mph sustained with higher gusts!


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Quoting Doppler22:
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

western Connecticut
western Massachusetts
northern New Jersey
central and eastern New York
northeast Pennsylvania
Vermont
coastal waters

Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until
1100 PM EDT.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north
northwest of Burlington Vermont to 45 miles south of wilkesbarre
Pennsylvania. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou4).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Discussion... scattered thunderstorms are increasing across parts of
central NY ad northern NJ. This region is characterized by a moist
and moderately unstable air mass. Cool temperatures aloft and steep
lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds and hail
through the afternoon in the strongest storms. An MCS over Ontario
will also track into parts of NY/VT later this afternoon and evening
with a continued risk of severe weather.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 28030.

Nice... I'm in northern VT this week so hopefully I'll get something.
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I got to go play some summer baseball... we're supposed to be playing against some high school from TA13's area ;)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hong Kong and surrounded areas are about to get wiped off the map.Sorta like Katrina with the upper gulf coast.


Hong Kong has decent infrastructure to handle a lot of flooding issues,hopefully it won't be too bad. As to the other cities in China,I really don't know.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


ive been to various golden corrals about 5 times last year.

one time had 20 gnats in my brocolli(crunchy)
and every other time, i found at least a few gnats and some hair, and i found a housefly twice.
It's amazing you keep patronizing their chain! After the first incident I wouldn't go back to them at all.
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Hong Kong has been round long time and they are a very Typhoon savvy society.

Lets hold off on calamity until it actually occurs.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
So the JTWC puts Vicente at 120 knots.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting washingtonian115:
Boooooo.


Yeah... I'm going to try to write a blog on it before I go out with my girlfriend..
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I was just looking at the 12Z NAM and I... Well... You'll have to look for yourselves.



12Z NAM
Be sure to look at hours 30 and 33


Look how fast the storms move and how much the temps drop...

Long story short:



Allen Huffman mentioned it today:

We will likely see more widespread showers and storms this afternoon and evening across the state as a stationary cold front finally begins to dissipate. But before it does it will help trigger more thunderstorms activity. Temperatures will be on the rise though with tomorrow looking like a hot day with temps likely near 100 for areas east of the mountains. However, we will likely see some strong storms pop up tomorrow afternoon and then I am watching the potential for a “Derecho” to form back in the Midwest tomorrow and then race southeast towards the area tomorrow evening. If this does occur, we could see some wind damage accompanying a fast moving line of storms tomorrow evening. Most of the state is under threat from this but we will have a better idea tomorrow.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
379. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
I'm just one of those that gets sick of the GW talk on here once it gets going at a fever pitch.

Well that's just too bad, as this is Dr. Masters entry and if we want to discus AGW as it stands today, we shall.

As it is related to the topic at Hand.

IE, the entry.

We have Tons of new server space with TWC.

So feel free to open YOUR own entry to blather endlessly on whateva' floats yer boat.



are some would say what sinks ya boat....is the glass half full or half empty...
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
I was just looking at the 12Z NAM and I... Well... You'll have to look for yourselves.



12Z NAM



Look how fast the storms move and how much the temps drop...

Long story short:

Boooooo.
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Landfall is imminent, probably 2 hours:

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The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

western Connecticut
western Massachusetts
northern New Jersey
central and eastern New York
northeast Pennsylvania
Vermont
coastal waters

Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until
1100 PM EDT.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north
northwest of Burlington Vermont to 45 miles south of wilkesbarre
Pennsylvania. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou4).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Discussion... scattered thunderstorms are increasing across parts of
central NY ad northern NJ. This region is characterized by a moist
and moderately unstable air mass. Cool temperatures aloft and steep
lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds and hail
through the afternoon in the strongest storms. An MCS over Ontario
will also track into parts of NY/VT later this afternoon and evening
with a continued risk of severe weather.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 28030.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hong Kong and surrounded areas are about to get wiped off the map.Sorta like Katrina with the upper gulf coast.

That's pretty strong language....
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hong Kong and surrounded areas are about to get wiped off the map.Sorta like Katrina with the upper gulf coast.
Except storm surge won't be high. It never had time to develops major hurricane-like surge.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting Waltanater:
In one sitting? WOW.


ive been to various golden corrals about 5 times last year.

one time had 20 gnats in my brocolli(crunchy)
and every other time, i found at least a few gnats and some hair, and i found a housefly twice.
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Reports I am getting from Hong Kong indicate that initial damage (blown in windows, downed trees) has already started although currently it would seem that the power and net services are still up.

Business Infrastructure in Hong Kong is generally strong, however, low lying areas with poorer housing are at major risk from flooding and Storm Surge.

That jog to the North coupled with very rapid intensification have certainly placed Hong Kong City/Province & Macau areas at major risk.

Will update as I hear more form Hong Kong
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Hurricane Signal, No. 10, is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 118 kilometers per hour or more are expected.

At 1 a.m., Severe Typhoon Vicente was centered about 100 kilometers southwest of Hong Kong Observatory and is forecast to move to northwest about 20 kilometers per hour towards the region to the west of the Pearl River Estuary then will move west-northwestwards later.

Vicente is expected to be closest to Hong Kong in the next few hours, passing within 100 km of the Hong Kong Observatory. The eyewall of Vicente will come near to the southwestern part of Hong Kong, bringing hurricane force winds to those areas.

Impressive...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you have no idea how many bugs i have found in my food at Golden Corral.

And no thanks for Slender, ill never forgive you for tempting me to play that game.
In one sitting? WOW.
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Quoting pottery:

These are Facts, right?
Or is this part of the Conspiracy by Al Gore and them?

I'm so confused.....
Couldn't keep Tipper happy
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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