June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Also looking for news about Macau / Macao...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


"In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - The wise words of Jedi Master Obi-Wan Kenobi


Funny thing, The harder I work the lucker i get!
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1316. ncstorm
Nogaps.00z run..had a TD by tomorrow


Nogaps 06z run..strong wave..backed off but has the same path as the GFS

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14420
Typhoon Vicente lashes South China
Updated: 2012-07-24 11:07(chinadaily.com.cn)

A woman battles to hold her umbrella and bicycle against rain and gales in En'ping county, South China's Guangdong province, on July 24, 2012. Typhoon Vicente made landfall in Chixi county, Guangdong province, early Tuesday morning, bringing torrential rain and hurricane force winds to southern China. Hong Kong was lashed by gales on Monday as typhoon Vicente moved towards the financial hub, sending office workers home early and prompting the local observatory to raise the tropical cyclone warning signal to number 8, the third highest classification.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
That wave off Africa looks the best I've seen so far for any that have exited Africa this season.But it's eventually killed off by the models.Beautiful to look at though.


Looks almost like a TD. I'm surprised the NHC has drawn a colored circle over this area.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Here we go again. My area is starting to flood and more rain will only aggrevate the situation after yesterday's deluge.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
That wave off Africa looks the best I've seen so far for any that have exited Africa this season.But it's eventually killed off by the models.Beautiful to look at though.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16385
1310. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
So i saw the runs of the models yesterday night that showed a hurricane coming for the Leeward Islands.The hell?.


yeah I actually was on this morning when it was running..our first GFS cape verde hurricane run and then of course it drops it in the next run..LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14420
You can see the path of the storm the GFS developes on the 0Z GFS run.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm not sure about the algae (though it seems feasible". But the little fishies will be greatly inconvenienced. As one Purdue University professor puts it, "Facing an inhospitable habitat, fish either have to move or die."

Pretty blunt.

Here's a short list of interesting links on the subject:

--Global Warming and the Great Lakes

--THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION

--Researchers study how climate change chases fish from streams

--Map of various Us>s. habitats and their vulnerability to disruption due to climate change

A Potentially dangerous situation would be:-
High temp increase.
Fertilizer runoff,
Algae build up.
Toxic wastes build up,
Plus drastically reduced rainfall, along with increased evaporation.
We might be on that path now!
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0Z GFS

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
So i saw the runs of the models yesterday night that showed a hurricane coming for the Leeward Islands.The hell?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16385
Quoting HimacaneBrees:



Valid point. But what can be done? I mean we have all of these luxury's in life now that we didn't have years ago. How do you get everyone to stop driving a car, using electricity, hell using a computer? I mean if you give a kid a lollipop then try to take it away, he's gonna be pissed and want to fight you for it.


I think what that article is saying is we are doing much more damage to this planet than first thought, how to reverse the damage? Whomever can answer that will be worth more money than all the gold in the earth.
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Quoting sabres:
Over here in coastal Brevard County I have less than 2 inches for the month of July while areas around Orlando (Stomtracker etc ...) and westward have been getting pounded. This pattern in July has allowed the seabreeze to rocket inland much too early with little westerly steering to bring the storms back to my coast. And when we are forecast to be in a favorable steering regime (later this week) mid-level temps are forecast to warm so instability will be on the wane. In fact my Keetch Byram numbers are up over 400 again since most of Debby's rain in late June was to my west as well.



Another thing is that this pattern reminds of 2004 before we started getting pounded by hurricanes as that year featured a strong east coast seabreeze daily during the month of July due a strong Bermuda High. Not saying a 2004 will happen but some things that are happening this year sure does resemble the pre hurricanes of 2004.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1302. ncstorm
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


do you realize that the wind threat is NOT hatched


thanks I will edit thundercloud..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14420
Yes, that one. Thanks Aussie.
It was dry air and not cold water moving over the Gulf. Got it.
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Quoting sabres:
Over here in coastal Brevard County I have less than 2 inches for the month of July while areas around Orlando (Stomtracker etc ...) and westward have been getting pounded. This pattern in July has allowed the seabreeze to rocket inland much too early with little westerly steering to bring the storms back to my coast. And when we are forecast to be in a favorable steering regime (later this week) mid-level temps are forecast to warm so instability will be on the wane. In fact my Keetch Byram numbers are up over 400 again since most of Debby's rain in late June was to my west as well.



About 15 to minutes SE of Orlando OIA has only had about 3" of rain for July but in Downtown Orlando the total is around 10" for the month. Crazy how the seabreezes work in FL as some areas get pounded repeatedly while others see very little rain.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting ncstorm:
SPC increased the area for slight risks today


and that is huge red hatched area for wind damage today..


and tornados..


might be an ugly day today


do you realize that the wind threat is NOT hatched
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1298. ncstorm
latest SPC discussion..this is shaping up to be a severe day for a lot of folks

MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 KTS
ALONG THE MID-ATL COAST TO 45-50 KT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE PERPENDICULAR
TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
WILL EXIST. THIS THREAT WILL BE REASSESSED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14420
Quoting PlazaRed:

Nea,
Do you think that a possible water temp in excess of 30+/C or 80+/F is likely to have a damaging effect on the lakes aquatic life.
Surly the fish etc have not evolved recently coping with these types of temps.
Also is there a possibility of blue green algae formations or worse?
I'm not sure about the algae (though it seems feasible". But the little fishies will be greatly inconvenienced. As one Purdue University professor puts it, "Facing an inhospitable habitat, fish either have to move or die."

Pretty blunt.

Here's a short list of interesting links on the subject:

--Global Warming and the Great Lakes

--THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION

--Researchers study how climate change chases fish from streams

--Map of various Us>s. habitats and their vulnerability to disruption due to climate change
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1296. sabres
Over here in coastal Brevard County I have less than 2 inches for the month of July while areas around Orlando (Stomtracker etc ...) and westward have been getting pounded. This pattern in July has allowed the seabreeze to rocket inland much too early with little westerly steering to bring the storms back to my coast. And when we are forecast to be in a favorable steering regime (later this week) mid-level temps are forecast to warm so instability will be on the wane. In fact my Keetch Byram numbers are up over 400 again since most of Debby's rain in late June was to my west as well.
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Quoting aspectre:
1249 AussieStorm: [News about HongKong]

Well when ya rob a man at gunpoint, ya take his valuables.
And the Brits stole the high ground of HongKong from China.
3metre(10foot)flood map
MUCH more concerned about what's happened in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Jiangmen, Zhongshan, Foshan, etc with only 5hours between a Cat.1 warning and a Cat.4 landfall.
290 news reports so far according to Google... only 2 of them give any details at all NOT about Hong Kong... one reports 17 deaths so far. Amazing that in that densely populated area all one can hear is reports of how a city on the edge of the storm is fine.

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1294. ncstorm
SPC increased the area for slight risks today


and that is huge red patched area for wind damage today..


and tornados..


might be an ugly day today
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14420
Quoting AussieStorm:
Aussie Antarctic scientist in climate studies breakthrough



Valid point. But what can be done? I mean we have all of these luxury's in life now that we didn't have years ago. How do you get everyone to stop driving a car, using electricity, hell using a computer? I mean if you give a kid a lollipop then try to take it away, he's gonna be pissed and want to fight you for it.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
1266 Aussie's animation shows a ripple of cold hitting the sst's in the Gulf of Mexico, but that isn't what I am seeing on other sst images. ???


You mean this one?

It's not water temp, it's Total Precipitable Water.
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Quoting Slamguitar:
Aaaanndd now the lakes start warming again.




Interesting to look at what has happened to the Aral Sea, though for different reasons connected to irrigation extractions.
If there is a warm dry winter after this summer in the Northern US and Canada, then lake levels may start to drop dramatically along with much reduced water flow in the Mississippi river.
None of this bodes well after a drought season this year.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like Cape Verde season is starting now as these are some very impressive waves rolling off Africa.


the next one is a little higher than the one currently exiting. But it also looks like the one following that is even lower than the first one.
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1266 Aussie's animation shows a ripple of cold hitting the sst's in the Gulf of Mexico, but that isn't what I am seeing on other sst images. ???
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Looks like Cape Verde season is starting now as these are some very impressive waves rolling off Africa.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
What a crazy day weather wise here in C FL yesterday. My area got 3" to 6" of rain last evening from a massive storm that developed and sat over much of C FL. I picked up 2.91" yesterday and let me tell my yard can't take any more rain now as I have had 10.60" of rain this month with over 23" since June 1st. Lake Mary to my north picked up 6.45" of rain in 2 hours. Amazing as that is nearly our monthly total for July and some places got that in 2 hours!


VIDEO - Heavy rain pounds downtown Orlando
Link





Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's almost funny:

water

Nea,
Do you think that a possible water temp in excess of 30+/C or 80+/F is likely to have a damaging effect on the lakes aquatic life.
Surly the fish etc have not evolved recently coping with these types of temps.
Also is there a possibility of blue green algae formations or worse?
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Aussie Antarctic scientist in climate studies breakthrough

AN Australian Antarctic scientist has made a climate studies breakthrough by examining how the earth warmed up after the last Ice Age.

Glaciologist Joel Pedro, from the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, is part of an international team that has worked out how quickly carbon entered the atmosphere as a result of temperature rises beginning around 19,000 years ago.

The team discovered that CO2 increased naturally in the atmosphere much more quickly than previously thought during an 8000-year period of global warming.

"The new thing here is to pin down the time scales of how that worked in the past," Dr Pedro told AAP.

"If there was a lag at all then it was likely no more than 400 years.

"We can't rule out that the two just happen at the same time, whereas previously the figures were more like a thousand (years)."

The finding suggests "feedback" in the climate system - where temperature increases CO2, which in turn increases temperature - happens faster than expected.

It also lends support to theories that the oceans warmed more quickly than the 1000 years it was thought was needed for a significant change to occur.

Dr Pedro spent a month drilling ice cores at Law Dome near Casey Station in Eastern Antarctica in 2008-09.

His findings have just been published in the journal Climate of the Past.

The study has been hailed as a major step forward in understanding more recent problems, with US ice core specialist Eric Steig saying it has major implications for understanding the carbon cycle and climate change.

Dr Pedro says the study of natural warming only underlines the speed at which human-created climate change has occurred.

He says 8000 years' worth of natural CO2 increases have been created in the 200 years since the industrial revolution.

"Just as the steady increase in CO2 helped to melt the ice caps and warm the earth out of the ice age, the rapid increase now in CO2 is also driving up temperatures, only at a much faster rate," he said.

"What we're doing now is over a hundred times faster."
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Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Neap,

Are these storms the precursor for a possible "Derecho" event later today??
Margusity at Accuweather is already calling it a derecho on Twitter....
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Finally, here is the link to this morning's NCEP discussion for the Caribbean. It is rather long so I will not post it but there is no mention of the system spun up by the GFS. They do latch on to possible development of storms, in their outlooks from the past several seasons, when there is some model consensus.


Link


Back to lurking and work.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8774
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's a nasty line of severe-warned storms moving through Chicago and Northern Indiana this morning:

stom


Neap,

Are these storms the precursor for a possible "Derecho" event later today??
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And here is that GFS run: a little spotty on the development but something does spin up in the Central Atlantic.

Link

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8774
There's a nasty line of severe-warned storms moving through Chicago and Northern Indiana this morning:

stom
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WOW that not Goood!!!!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We'll need more consistency than this if we're going to get a storm:

0z



6z

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4389
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We'll need more consistency than this if we're going to get a storm:

0z



6z



Remember that the 00z and 12z runs are the most complete with data.Let's wait to the 12z run and see what it has.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13998
As a system nears it's tipping point, it moves to the extremes, there it get's stuck. Before slamming to the other extreme.


The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.

Southern Japan saw nearly 3 feet of rain in just 4 days.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

From the San Juan NWS about future developments in MDR.


THE
GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW WAVES ADVANCING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AT
THE PACE OF ONE EVERY 5 TO 5.5 DAYS. THE LAST ONE TO LEAVE AFRICA
ON SUNDAY...HAS BEEN SPINNING UP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
GFS AND WILL REACH 40 WEST BY 03/00Z AUGUST 2012 SHOULD THE MODEL
SOLUTION HOLD. AT THIS TIME DEVELOPMENT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO MAKE
ANY DECISIONS. NEVERTHELESS PRELIMINARY ANNUAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE 2012
HURRICANE SEASON SHOULD BE NEAR COMPLETION.




Good Morning. That statistic of one every 5 to 5.5 days is consistent with the average number of waves which cross the Atlantic during the Cape Verde season (with only a small percentage who reach tropical depression status) and with the concept of storm "clusters" during the peak where we might get a string of 3-4 CV storms develop from waves over 20-30 day period if the MJO is up and there is no significant impediment like sheer or SAL issues. Here is the stat again from NOAA's Mariner's Guide to Tropical Cyclones:

Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8774
90E is in trouble:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7609
We'll need more consistency than this if we're going to get a storm:

0z



6z

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7609
Quoting Slamguitar:
Aaaanndd now the lakes start warming again.



It's almost funny:

water
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The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.

Southern Japan saw nearly 3 feet of rain in just 4 days.
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The worst-hit area of the city received 460 millimeters (18.4 inches) of rain on Saturday.

Try and plan for that.
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Some pointed out that Saturday’s deluge was historic in nature, with the Global Times noting it was the heaviest rainstorm in the capital in 61 years. The worst-hit area of the city received 460 millimeters (18.4 inches) of rain on Saturday.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM 5jFJAqZW565P9IkxIfeeGaSn1L9ew?docId=94a1c1cc37b94e 3b8a28690365fa5af5
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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