June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:


I see west wind barbs. They are weak, but present.
Just making sure my mind isnt making up swirls.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting yoboi:


prove it's not 80%....i want facts not a neaoplitan guess
That's not how science works. If you believe it's 80%--a number that defies every bit of logic or reasoning or common sense--you do some research (well, a lot of research), write up your findings in an article, have it accepted by a credible academic publication, wait while it goes through a stringent review process, then come back here and triumphantly announce your paper's publication. I can promise you I will be among the first to read it with great enthusiasm. OTOH, if you just want to stick with tired "it's Al Gore's fault" inanities, go right ahead. But you should know that they have no basis in reality either...
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466. yoboi
Quoting pottery:

I think that Neopolitan is quoting numbers that are pretty well Scientific Fact. Not guesses.

But you seem to have your mind made up already.



i don't have my mind up i am just asking to show me the enviromental impact study from that area....i would really like to know not some ref about food coloring and fire crackers...just plain simple facts..
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Official intensity went from 70 knots to 120 in one update.

Now thats what I call rapid intensification!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting wxchaser97:

If the euro shows something off Africa then its a good chace of development. If both the GFS and euro agree then we have to watch for something. Even if the euro shows nothing, atleast the gfs gives us something to hope for.


the GFS started at 90 hours with developing the wave..really not that far out..
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro running

If the euro shows something off Africa then its a good chace of development. If both the GFS and euro agree then we have to watch for something. Even if the euro shows nothing, atleast the gfs gives us something to hope for.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
48 hours
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461. yoboi
Quoting BobWallace:


I'll bet you know it's tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny...


just shoot the facts bob no guessing..
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Heyo, dropping in because I noticed a nice little circulation in the Gulf just off St Petersburg, FL on my desktop weather widget that seems to have sprung up. I suppose it's too close to land to get big?
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Quoting yoboi:


prove it's not 80%....i want facts not a neaoplitan guess

I think that Neopolitan is quoting numbers that are pretty well Scientific Fact. Not guesses.

But you seem to have your mind made up already.
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Can anyone still get into Hong Kong radar?? Ive tried and no can do. I would like to see the eyewall approach,so if anyone can get in?
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Is that a weak spin or just me?


I see west wind barbs. They are weak, but present.
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456. yoboi
Quoting pottery:

Probably because the effect is so very very small.
Almost non-existent in fact.


that's just a guess....
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Is that a weak spin or just me?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting yoboi:


i just would like to know how much of an impact due to people on the north pole contributes to ice melt i have looked and looked and i don't think there is such an enviromental impact statement...

Probably because the effect is so very very small.
Almost non-existent in fact.
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452. yoboi
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


CO2 emissions world-wide eventually get uniformly mixed in the atmosphere across the entire globe. Therefore the GHGs emitted in the industrialized portions of the world contribute greatly to the warming of the arctic regions. In reality, the polar regions (north & south) are warming much faster than the equatorial regions.

It is this warming of the arctic that is causing changes in the Jet Stream (per Dr. Masters & Dr. Rood). These changes in the Jet Stream is what is contributing to or influencing many of the extreme weather events we are seeing across the entire globe this year.

Thanks for asking a very important question. I hope my answers will help you understand the complexity of the global climate system.


i just would like to know how much of an impact due to people on the north pole contributes to ice melt i have looked and looked and i don't think there is such an enviromental impact statement...
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Quoting yoboi:


i think humans impact agw...but why cry about someone driving a car that get's 2 mpg when the same people crying about that will be on the north pole cheering a planes fly over with agw guru's.....lead by example and there more than a couple of planes and ships in there polluting daily...
Sigh...

Let's try again, this time with a simple, easy to understand comparative analogy:

CO2 added to environment via polar research activity: firecracker

CO2 added to environment via all other fossil fuel burning throughout the world: thermonuclear weapon

You're free to stick with your "logic" if you wish, but you should know it has no basis in reality.
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Man $@&! that typhoon.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting yoboi:



how much of the melt there, is due to all the planes, ships, tractors, burning fossil fuels there on a daily basis????


I'll bet you know it's tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I should know better by now, but if u had told me yesterday Vincente would be a 140mph typhoon, I would have gone far beyond a mere "pooh-poohing" to an outright belly laugh...

[Sigh.]

LOL, True!
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12z Euro running
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.
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What does the 350 mark on the co2 chart mean?
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Better keep an eye on HK radar.

I couldn't even imagine what it must feel like to be a civillian there and go to sleep with a 65 knot TC projected to move south of the city, and wake up with a 120 knot cyclone headed just west of the city.

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Hong Kong photo

http://instagram.com/p/Nbq45_ELtA/Link
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I should know better by now, but if u had told me yesterday Vincente would be a 140mph typhoon, I would have gone far beyond a mere "pooh-poohing" to an outright belly laugh...

[Sigh.]
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Quoting yoboi:



how much of the melt there, is due to all the planes, ships, tractors, burning fossil fuels there on a daily basis????


CO2 emissions world-wide eventually get uniformly mixed in the atmosphere across the entire globe. Therefore the GHGs emitted in the industrialized portions of the world contribute greatly to the warming of the arctic regions. In reality, the polar regions (north & south) are warming much faster than the equatorial regions.

It is this warming of the arctic that is causing changes in the Jet Stream (per Dr. Masters & Dr. Rood). These changes in the Jet Stream is what is contributing to or influencing many of the extreme weather events we are seeing across the entire globe this year.

Thanks for asking a very important question. I hope my answers will help you understand the complexity of the global climate system.
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438. yoboi
Quoting pottery:

OK. Thanks for clearing that up.


your welcome..
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting yoboi:


i think humans impact agw...but why cry about someone driving a car that get's 2 mpg when the same people crying about that will be on the north pole cheering a planes fly over with agw guru's.....lead by example and there more than a couple of planes and ships in there polluting daily...

OK. Thanks for clearing that up.
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435. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
as of 17:00 PM UTC...

JTWC (Hawaii): 120 knots
RSMC (Japan): 65 knots (10 min sustained wind avg)
CMA (China): 80 knots (2 min sustained wind avg)
HKO (Hong Kong): 85 knots (10 min sustained wind avg)
PAGASA (Philippines): out of area of responsibility (10 minute sustained wind avg)

---
just look at the difference in wind speed.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
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If the Gfs is correct and consistent then it will mean we will have Ernesto for the end of July and Florence for the start of August right?
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431. yoboi
Quoting pottery:

And you STILL contend that we, by our actions, are NOT responsible for GW ?????

If a couple of tractors and ships can do what we are seeing there, how can you deny that there is no AGW ?????

You seem to be tottering on your fence. Hang on. You may fall into the wrong camp.


i think humans impact agw...but why cry about someone driving a car that get's 2 mpg when the same people crying about that will be on the north pole cheering a planes fly over with agw guru's.....lead by example and there more than a couple of planes and ships in there polluting daily...
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Nada on ASCAT...

Is that little ruffling on the eastern side of the ASCAT image the next Twave?

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


That looks like it wants to go to Macau
Even if the centre stays south, it looks like it'll get close enough to Macao to bring some of the top winds into the area.

Looks like Zhongshan and points north to Guangzhou [i.e. on the western side of the estuary] are the areas that would be most negatively impacted by any serious storm surge.
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Quoting pottery:

And you STILL contend that we, by our actions, are NOT responsible for GW ?????

If a couple of tractors and ships can do what we are seeing there, how can you deny that there is no AGW ?????

You seem to be tottering on your fence. Hang on. You may fall into the wrong camp.
My fence blew down in 2005...........But I have always had a thing for old tractors
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Let's see...

We've got a Category 4 typhoon (with Category 5 gusts) making landfall just south of one of the most populated cities on this planet, which puts it in the NE quadrant (the strongest side).

What would go wrong?
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GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED OVER THE NE GULF...
BEST DEPICTED AT 700 MB LEVEL. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 30N83W TO
28N86W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 26N E OF 86W. TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFTING TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONVECTION N OF 23N
W OF 89W. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THE OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHILE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INCREASES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Current time in Hong Kong is 1:40 am
screams in the darkness
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Quoting yoboi:



my source is 80.0893%

And you STILL contend that we, by our actions, are NOT responsible for GW ?????

If a couple of tractors and ships can do what we are seeing there, how can you deny that there is AGW ?????

You seem to be tottering on your fence. Hang on. You may fall into the wrong camp.
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MODIFIED GREENSBORO/MOREHEAD CITY NC 12Z RAOBS SUGGEST MLCAPE HAS
ALREADY INCREASED TO 2000-3000...AND INSOLATION WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...WITH ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE.
INITIALLY LACKING DEEP
SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR MORE
ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE WITH A
RELATIVELY HIGHER THREAT FOR DMGG WING GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN NC AND SRN VA. WHILE WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY
UNLIKELY...WW ISSUANCE POTENTIAL MAY BE RE-EVALUATED LATER IN THE
DAY SHOULD A MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT APPEAR TO EVOLVE.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


no. Joint Typhoon Warning Center uses 1-minute sustained wind average


thx
so 140mph
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420. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
410. GeorgiaStormz 5:39 PM GMT on July 23, 2012


well at least the north side is weaker and the south side should weaken as this comes onshore.


is the jtwc a 10 minute wind speed?
i forgot


no. Joint Typhoon Warning Center uses 1-minute sustained wind average
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well mom looks pissed
My mom was always pissed... I never followed the rules
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418. yoboi
Quoting pottery:


0.00263%



my source is 80.0893%
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.