June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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144 hours ECMWF:


144 hours GFS:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951
Here is a nice link of the eye crossing over



Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26528
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Usually; there is one Professor/Researcher out of FSU or UF (I forgot which one) who has been doing the lightening studies on eye walls for several years and has found a correlation between increased lightening in the eye wall preceding intensification.


I believe that it was FSU that found the correlation.

Way back in 2007, I remember wathcing the Real Time Earth Lightning Network while Hurricane Felix was bombing out and there was a distinct increase in electrical energy during that process. Was really something to watch.

The corresponding Recon mission also noted a very unusual amount of lightning in the eye as well.
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Quoting Stats56:


Pat is right, too many asumptions. I was in Hong Kong several years ago and got a hit from a Cat 1. Hardly noticed it in the city. The city is mostly reinforced concrete building, as is Shenzhen.

Outlying areas is a different story. Wait it out and see what happens
High rises increase the windspeed. I would not be surprised to see a lot of tall buildings have their glass blown out.
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144 hours--look at the wave
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15704
Quoting wxchaser97:
Looks to be making one final intensification right before landfall. The eyewall is stronger/wrapped around more and the eye is more circular.


imagine if the northern eyewall was as strong as the south too.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Usually; there is one Professor/Researcher out of FSU or UF (I forgot which one) who has been doing the lightening studies on eye walls for several years and has found a correlation between increased lightening in the eye wall preceding intensification.


then the southern eyewall may be intensifying but the northern one contains no significant lightning whatsoever
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
My eyes/mind are right, there is something going on in the GOM.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951
12z GFS - two possible CV systems.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
HK


Good Job! Did ya have any problems getting in?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Beautiful typhoon. Very concerned about those in its path. Never a pretty sight when you have a strengthening major hurricane/super typhoon at landfall.


I agree.
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Seems like Shangchuan Dao and Macau are in more trouble than Hong Kong, but their population is nowhere near hong kongs 7mil.

They still have 18k/mi^2 population density
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Typhoon Vicente:

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Hmmmmm.....

Click for loop. Speed up animation for full effect.
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Quoting NoLa86:
What does the 350 mark on the co2 chart mean?


DOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting Grothar:


Beautiful typhoon. Very concerned about those in its path. Never a pretty sight when you have a strengthening major hurricane/super typhoon at landfall.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
lightning in southern eyewall, dont know if that means intensification


Usually; there is one Professor/Researcher out of FSU or UF (I forgot which one) who has been doing the lightening studies on eye walls for several years and has found a correlation between increased lightening in the eye wall preceding intensification.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
lightning in southern eyewall, dont know if that means intensification
Looks to be making one final intensification right before landfall. The eyewall is stronger/wrapped around more and the eye is more circular.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951
Quoting yoboi:


do you really belive science is based on an analogy??
Are you under the impression that's what I believe? Of course it's not; science is based on observation and fact. (Know what else it's not based on? Wild and illogical conjecture, such as in "80% of all observed polar warming is due to scientific research activity.")
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Observed 113 mph SUSTAINED

Link

I bet that southern eyewall contains Category 4 sustained winds.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32287
Quoting Patrap:
Hong Kong has been round long time and they are a very Typhoon savvy society.

Lets hold off on calamity until it actually occurs.


Pat is right, too many asumptions. I was in Hong Kong several years ago and got a hit from a Cat 1. Hardly noticed it in the city. The city is mostly reinforced concrete building, as is Shenzhen.

Outlying areas is a different story. Wait it out and see what happens
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Quoting SSideBrac:
Reports I am getting from Hong Kong indicate that initial damage (blown in windows, downed trees) has already started although currently it would seem that the power and net services are still up.

Business Infrastructure in Hong Kong is generally strong, however, low lying areas with poorer housing are at major risk from flooding and Storm Surge.

That jog to the North coupled with very rapid intensification have certainly placed Hong Kong City/Province & Macau areas at major risk.

Will update as I hear more form Hong Kong


Thanks for the update SSideBrac,
I wonder if anyone has acess to the power grid info there and how it's customers are faring?
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850mb Vort stronger than ever:

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Ukmet is on board with the GFS..at least with a Low..looks to be farther south with it though




Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15704
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26528
lightning in southern eyewall, dont know if that means intensification
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The ECMWF does not develop the first wave like the GFS. It does depict it as being pretty strong though.
Second one coming off Africa, wonder if it develops per euro.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951
Are you ready for some Football? Just a quick poll.

A) WHOA YEAH!! (can't wait- I'm counting the days until kickoff)
B) I like it, but can take it or leave it
C) No
D) I hate football.

I'm going with A. GEAUX TIGAH'S!!!!!!

Back on topic, the weather is nice out here in the GOMEX today.
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Observed 113 mph SUSTAINED

Link
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The ECMWF does not develop the first wave like the GFS. It does depict it as being pretty strong though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32287
120 hrs
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951
96 hours
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
kwgirl. and you have to endure the 1,000's of nuts for the lobsters this weekend......Not to mentions the old farts that look like Ernest
The old farts mainly hang at Sloppy's so a one block radius is easy to avoid. The northern bug hunters are crazy. Most locals wait for them to leave to do our own bug hunting when season opens. Not worth your life to go out there during mini season!
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting JLPR2:


Yes! The GFS shows Ernesto and Florence as CV storms and dissipates them before reaching the islands, 2009 style.

Something to track! *tear
. Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17097
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Can anyone still get into Hong Kong radar?? Ive tried and no can do. I would like to see the eyewall approach,so if anyone can get in?




The server is incredibly slow.
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480. yoboi
Quoting pottery:

Sorry. I don't know if one was done, or by whom.

No mas.


and if one has not been done i would hope someone would consider doing one....that's all i would like..maybe DR M could provide the data???? i would like to know..
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72 hrs
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951
72 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15704
HK
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12z GFS initialized with a 500mb ridge axis extending to the north of our GOM disturbance, imparting easterly steering flow across the Northern GOM. At the 850mb level, it's more East-Southeasterly. If our system can grow deeper into the atmosphere, it will be blocked from moving onshore and head west. Its current motion has been more WNW than north like the NHC was saying earlier. I'm not totally sold on just "nothing" out of this one yet considering its steady improvement throughout the day.

GFS 500mb Vort

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Quoting yoboi:



i don't have my mind up i am just asking to show me the enviromental impact study from that area....i would really like to know not some ref about food coloring and fire crackers...just plain simple facts..

Sorry. I don't know if one was done, or by whom.

No mas.
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474. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's not how science works. If you believe it's 80%, you do some research--well, a lot of research--write up your findings in an article, have it accepted by a credible academic publication, wait while it goes through a stringent review process, then come back here and triumphantly announce your paper's publication. I can promise you I will be among the first to read it with great enthusiasm. OTOH, if you just want to stick with tired "it's Al Gore's fault" inanities, go right ahead. But you should know that they have no basis in reality either...


i am not saying it's al's fault i just want real data, that's all...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Looks like Macau and just southwest of there will bear the brunt unless he does things they usually do.....the unexpected jog right or left.
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Weekend rainfall totals really added up for extreme western and eastern portions of South Florida!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4691
471. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
oh.. Hong Kong Observatory has a no direct link rule
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470. JLPR2
Quoting wxchaser97:

If the euro shows something off Africa then its a good chace of development. If both the GFS and euro agree then we have to watch for something. Even if the euro shows nothing, atleast the gfs gives us something to hope for.


Yes! The GFS shows Ernesto and Florence as CV storms and dissipates them before reaching the islands, 2009 style.

Something to track! *tear
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469. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
HurricaneHunterJoe

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/radars/rad_256_png/2 d256radar_201207240200.png
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I see west wind barbs. They are weak, but present.
Just making sure my mind isnt making up swirls.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.