June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Link to Hong Kong Max Gusts graphic

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/ts/gust_animation_e. htm
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Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

ZOOM is active
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GFS develops the wave but dissapates it before the islands..the Euro wants to try to develop the wave nearing the bahamas though the Euro only goes out to 240 hours..now we have to wait on consistency from both models
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14451
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I don't have GREarth...

But I do.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
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Nuttin happening this week in the tropical Atl.

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


It's not related to a circulation rather just a thunderstorm. The buoy just NW of that one has SSE winds so there is no closed low yet.


I have found several Westerly wind directions associated with it..these buoys don't update at the same time. Some are several hours old.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which is why vorticity has been increasing all day, right?

I'm glad you can be so absolute with the disturbance..

*Cough*


vorticity increases.
now what.
It runs into its death with slightly higher vorticity.
im glad i can be so absolute too
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
When in doubt, use GREarth!



I don't have GREarth...
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This needs to be watched very carefully..last frame

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14451
558. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 231800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY VICENTE 1208 (1208) INITIAL TIME 231800 UTC
00HR 21.7N 113.3E 955HPA 40M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR WNW 23KM/H
P+24HR 22.8N 108.0E 996HPA 16M/S=

wow, surprisingly low for CMA, Ithink. (80 kts) 2 minute sustained wind average
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When in doubt, use GREarth!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
A GOM Tropical Screaming meemie?


Tallahassee
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

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555. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TYPHOON VICENTE (1208)
3:00 AM JST July 23 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Vicente (950 hPa) located at 21.7N 113.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in south quadrant
70 NM from the center in north quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in south quadrant
150 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 22.7N 108.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Overland Southern China
48 HRS: 22.1N 105.4E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Another buoy east of the wave...

Winds: WSW 21kts Gust 23Kts


It's not related to a circulation rather just a thunderstorm. The buoy just NW of that one has SSE winds so there is no closed low yet.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
216 hours..getting stronger

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14451
Link to HK Radar

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/radars/radar_range1. htm?pv_mode=playback
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it is the same as hundreds of other lows in the gulf that didnt develop.
It just isnt well defined, doesnt have much convection, and is not in a conducive environment.
So while you would buy development, its not selling.
Its just not going to do anything but die.

Which is why vorticity has been increasing all day, right?

I'm glad you can be so absolute with the disturbance..

*Cough*
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I disagree... Winds now to 30kts:

EP, 90, 2012072318, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1130W, 30, 1007, LO

I bet we get a renumber tomorrow morning.

Oops, made a mistake. I meant I doubt it ever becomes a tropical storm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nobody is beefing up anything. The disturbance has a nice area of low pressure that is trying to close off, but lacks convection.

If this weren't in such a high pressure environment, I would totally buy development.


it is the same as hundreds of other lows in the gulf that didnt develop.
It just isnt well defined, doesnt have much convection, and is not in a conducive environment.
So while you would buy development, its not selling.
Its just not going to do anything but die.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Another buoy east of the wave...

Winds: WSW 21kts Gust 23Kts
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm starting to doubt Invest 90E ever becomes a tropical depression.


I disagree... Winds now to 30kts:

EP, 90, 2012072318, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1130W, 30, 1007, LO

I bet we get a renumber tomorrow morning.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Invest 90E:



90E still has a chance to develop into a tropical storm before encountering unfavorable conditions in the next 96 hours.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


hardly alive, it is just a swirl that we are finding excuses to beef up.

Nobody is beefing up anything. The disturbance has a nice area of low pressure that is trying to close off, but lacks convection.

If this weren't in such a high pressure environment, I would totally buy development.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
192 hours..strong vorticity with the wave

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14451
Buoy east of the low in the Gulf...

Winds out of the SW at 23kts, gusts to 27kts. Slight drop in pressure as well.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I believe that it was FSU that found the correlation.

Way back in 2007, I remember wathcing the Real Time Earth Lightning Network while Hurricane Felix was bombing out and there was a distinct increase in electrical energy during that process. Was really something to watch.

The corresponding Recon mission also noted a very unusual amount of lightning in the eye as well.


Google is great; here is the link, and a quote, for a 2007 paper out of Hawaii on this issue using Katrina and Rita as examples:

Link

Data from the Long-Range Lightning Detection Network LLDN), the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, and reconnaissance aircraft are used to analyze the morphology of lightning outbreaks in the eyewalls of Hurricanes Rita and Katrina, two of the strongest storms in the Atlantic hurricane record. Each hurricane produced eyewall lightning outbreaks during the period of most rapid intensification, during eyewall replacement cycles, and during the time period that encompassed the maximum intensity for each storm.
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14451
eyewall seems to be a little weaker again.



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536. adb42
JTWC have issued an amended warning, upgrading Vicente from 70 knots to 120 knots , an increase of 50 knots in SIX hours.

Hong Kong is under hurricane signal 10, with winds of 110 mph reported around the city.
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Lot of 5s in the vicinity of the Yucatan... Could be bad news later this year:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Quoting MississippiWx:


...Hardly.


hardly alive, it is just a swirl that we are finding excuses to beef up.
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168 hours

Still a strong t-wave
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Thanks to all who got the Hong Kong radar images posted!!
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I'm starting to doubt Invest 90E ever becomes a tropical storm.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
AOI on or near Florida?

Use this page:

Adrian's Weather Florida Satellite Page
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


imagine if the northern eyewall was as strong as the south too.



then the southern eyewall may be intensifying but the northern one contains no significant lightning whatsoever
If the northern part was as strong as the southern then Hong Kong would be in trouble. Imagine if there was a big storm surge impacting Hong Kong as well, not good.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167


RGB- Loop and zoom active
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


its dead and gone


...Hardly.
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The steering changed for the Gulf disturbance in the last few hours. If this steering persists, it will remain over water for a longer period of time.

3 hours ago:



Current:

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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting MississippiWx:
I think I'm the only one impressed with the Gulf system. It appears to have closed off a surface low. It's weak, yes, but it appears to have done the most difficult part of cyclogenesis. Convection is lacking and needs to improve. Any westward movement will help its chances since time is a big factor.


its dead and gone
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
I think I'm the only one impressed with the Gulf system. It appears to have closed off a surface low. It's weak, yes, but it appears to have done the most difficult part of cyclogenesis. Convection is lacking and needs to improve. Any westward movement will help its chances since time is a big factor.
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Quoting pcola57:


Thanks for the update SSideBrac,
I wonder if anyone has acess to the power grid info there and how it's customers are faring?


It has gone very quiet from my contacts out there so I can only imagine that at least some Comms/Internet Carriers are either, down or, bandwidth is clogged solid!
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Quoting yqt1001:




The server is incredibly slow.


Thanks guys and gals!
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144 hours ECMWF:


144 hours GFS:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.