June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Quoting Civicane49:
The northern structure of Vicente is getting disheveled.



Probably due to land friction with the hills/mountains there?
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Quoting ncstorm:


you asked "who cares?" and I told you..I wasnt being defensive..I agree with the potential but we can still discuss the fact that it was showing a recurve thats all..


The "my blob is better than your blob" statement is pretty defensive/childish.

Anyway, out for the day. Have a good day everyone.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
616. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
Hong Kong International, Hong Kong wunderpage


do they use the same size pumps in hong kong as they use in nola???
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Macau International 79 °F 94% 28.94 in Heavy Showers Rain ESE at 47 mph 3:30 AM CST
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Did you read what I said at the end or just go straight to the defensive? I said the point to take home is that there is a potential for a storm. I said who cares about a model showing recurvature 240 hours out. Geez.


you asked "who cares?" and I told you..I wasnt being defensive..I agree with the potential but we can still discuss the fact that it was showing a recurve thats all..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
Subsidence is really having an impact on the Gulf disturbance. Pressure pattern is just not very favorable for it, but it's interesting to watch.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
This is what happens when you dump too much rain on a Charlotte NC mall:

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Hong Kong International, Hong Kong wunderpage
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Quoting ncstorm:


I care if that answers your question and Im sure the people in the islands care..thats why we are here on this site..well at least some of us anyway to track tropical systems..by the way..my african wave looks better than your blob in the GOM..just saying..





Did you read what I said at the end or just go straight to the defensive? I said the point to take home is that there is a potential for a storm. I said who cares about a model showing recurvature 240 hours out. Geez.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


shouldnt the $180 be freaking and not the year? :)



it's a "freaking" infraction.
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Quoting ncstorm:
192 hours..strong vorticity with the wave



Could impact the islands... (dreaming is good)
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Who cares? It hasn't even emerged off Africa. Lol. The potential of a storm is the point to take home.


I care if that answers your question and Im sure the people in the islands care..thats why we are here on this site..well at least some of us anyway to track tropical systems..by the way..my african wave looks better than your blob in the GOM..just saying..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
Here is a portion of the afternoon NCEP Caribbean discussion on the wave entering the Southern Caribbean and the link below;

AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 63W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...AND IS RAPIDLY BECOMING DEFINED AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TRINIDAD AND HAS ENTERED IN PHASE WITH A TUTT-INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ISLANDS. NEVERTHELESS...RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN LEADING TO WIDESPREAD AREA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALSO...A DRY AIR MASS IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH IS LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY EFFECTS OF EASTERLY WAVE AND TUTT-INDUCED TROUGH ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE ISLANDS. BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN PLACE ALONG VENEZUELA AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES...


This is a great link to "favorite" for Caribbean issues because they usually update a few times a day and are real good with the large scale synoptic conditions for this region.

Link
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The northern structure of Vicente is getting disheveled.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167


Here's the most recent one.
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Quoting kwgirl:
You are not too far away from it. Many years ago a friend of mine visited Frost Proof, Florida where she tasted fresh frog legs. Frost Proof is somewhere near the glades and they catch bull frogs for dinner.
I know of Frostproof........Never understood the name, On US27...... There is Lake Placid, Sebring, Avon Park, and Frostproof... Gets very cold there...Surely not Frost proof.
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Ya think TC's feed off the water??

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
I think Vicente makes landfall.



Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I grew up on that southern Ohio treat Pat.........Haven't had it in years here in south Florida
You are not too far away from it. Many years ago a friend of mine visited Frost Proof, Florida where she tasted fresh frog legs. Frost Proof is somewhere near the glades and they catch bull frogs for dinner.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z GFS - two possible CV systems.


Or simply ghost storms
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
Quoting ncstorm:


yep but how much of a recurve?


Who cares? It hasn't even emerged off Africa. Lol. The potential of a storm is the point to take home.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Looks like it is getting stronger as it approaches the coast.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
Quoting Grothar:
There is a semi-blob entering the Caribbean and a full blob off the Florida East coast.





Nice wave entering the SE Caribbean.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That's a recurve there. Notice the trough over the SE US.


yep but how much of a recurve?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
NEXSAT GOM Animated Loop
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Quoting Patrap:


They the perfect ending to a True La. Fried Seafood Platter.

Please pass da Lemon and cocktail sauce..
I grew up on that southern Ohio treat Pat.........Haven't had it in years here in south Florida
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Quoting ncstorm:
This needs to be watched very carefully..last frame



I hope it brings some rain to the NE Carib Islands.. I good wet Tropical Storm would be so welcomed!
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Quoting Civicane49:


Outflow boundaries spitting out.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14408
Quoting SSideBrac:


It has gone very quiet from my contacts out there so I can only imagine that at least some Comms/Internet Carriers are either, down or, bandwidth is clogged solid!


Thank you for answering my question SSideBrac..
I hope that your contacts come out of this unharmed.. :)
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AFTER TOMORROW...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH
PROB OF SHOWERS REMAINING VERY MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS...THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z
GLOBAL FORECAST ENSEMBLE SYSTEM INDICATE A PRECIPITATION MINIMA
OVER PR AND THE USVI THROUGH 12Z MON JUL 31 SO A VERY QUIET PERIOD
APPEARS IN STORE FOR US. GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO INDICATE LESS
CHANCE OF PRECIP ESPECIALLY WED AND THU WHEN NOTHING MAY DEVELOP
AT ALL.


What a pity lol. Looks like MARCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Boring :(((((((((((
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
So far I have been controling myself...But in the near future "frog legs" are beginning to look more appetizing every day.


They the perfect ending to a True La. Fried Seafood Platter.

Please pass da Lemon and cocktail sauce..
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nuttin happening this week in the tropical Atl.

So far I have been controling myself...But in the near future "frog legs" are beginning to look more appetizing every day.
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There is a semi-blob entering the Caribbean and a full blob off the Florida East coast.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
Quoting ncstorm:
This needs to be watched very carefully..last frame



That's a recurve there. Notice the trough over the SE US.
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Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

click image for Loop

ZOOM is active, check the Boxes, FRONTS and MSLP


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Another thing to consider is that this low in the Gulf is an area where the coastline can help it spin up faster. While the overall surface pressures are high in the area, the angle of the coastline could be helping it spin into a stronger area of low pressure than it would otherwise. Also, daytime heating is helping it spark strong thunderstorms over Florida which could also help it wrap up faster. These little spinners fascinate me and are often very unpredictable. I'm just thinking it's not getting enough credit. The chances are stacked against it, of course.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes. $180 a freaking year.


shouldnt the $180 be freaking and not the year? :)
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TC Vicente

RainbowTop Image

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After carefull analysis, I have determined this is definitely a ....Blob!

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
ncstorm,comparing GFS with Euro,how do you see things in terms of waves developing?


I want to see the GFS next run just to show consistency but with the Euro trying to develop the same wave, it looks like we maybe tracking our first cape verde wave by friday..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Okay, let's take a step back real quick and look at what we have right now:

The NHC has given the disturbance a near 0% chance of development.
The disturbance looks more organized than earlier today.
Conditions are more favorable for development.
The 850mb vorticity has increased.
Signs are appearing that it has closed off a surface low.
Convection has increased on the east and southeast sides.
Atmospheric steering currents will allow this to stay offshore longer.
No winds have been reported of T.D. force nor T.S. force.
Satellite and radar presentation of the system is okay at best.


Did I miss anything?

All in all, it's in better shape than it was, but still a ways off from being classified as anything except a low. Maybe we get an invest and the NHC starts caring more, but until then I don't see a reason to get worked up.
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eyewall coming ashore between Shangchuan Dao and Macau.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


lucky.
you have to renew that every year, correct?

Yes. $180 a freaking year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
When in doubt, use GREarth!



lucky.
you have to renew that every year, correct?
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ncstorm,comparing GFS with Euro,how do you see things in terms of waves developing?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14408
Link to Hong Kong Max Gusts graphic

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/ts/gust_animation_e. htm
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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