June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Link


Thank you!
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667. Skyepony (Mod)
Landfall is official..
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting washingtonian115:
It must be another troll.JFV wants a storm to hit him.


It's the NOSTORMSINFLORIDA or whatever he calls himself these days..
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Link
Quoting sailfish01:
12Z run of the GFS is showing development of that wave over Africa. Anyone have good link to the EURO?
Tks
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Quoting yoboi:



taz that is jfv....
It must be another troll.JFV wants a storm to hit him.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
12Z run of the GFS is showing development of that wave over Africa. Anyone have good link to the EURO?
Tks
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Landfall is only a Ob's things for when the eye crosses the coast.

The Storm is FULLY half inland as well as Half the Eye-wall...by that time.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
660. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
Link


How do you post images and animated images on forum ???





anyone :)........ alot of low cloud rotating over me......rotating thunderstorm ?????


Lower left click view/save, then right click that image & proceed..

Looks like a hail cell there..
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659. Skyepony (Mod)
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Link


How do you post images and animated images on forum ???





anyone :)........ alot of low cloud rotating over me......rotating thunderstorm ?????
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657. etxwx
Report from Reuters: Severe typhoon hits Hong Kong and south China
HONG KONG | Mon Jul 23, 2012 1:17pm EDT

(Reuters) - Hong Kong raised its highest tropical cyclone warning on Tuesday as an intensifying severe typhoon edged closer towards the financial hub, grounding flights and forcing the port to close.
Financial markets, schools, businesses and non-essential government services close when any No. 8 or above signal is hoisted, posing a disruption to business in the capitalist hub and former British colony that returned to Chinese rule in 1997.
The Hong Kong observatory said it expected the No. 10 signal to remain in force overnight, meaning markets could be shut down in the morning.
Separately, China's National Meteorological Center issued an orange alert for Typhoon Vicente, the second highest warning level in China's four-tier typhoon warning system, state media reported.
Strengthening gale force winds overturned trees, churned up huge waves in Hong Kong's Victoria Harbour and sent debris flying, injuring some 30 people as Vicente edged closer to the city and the western reaches of China's Guangdong province.
Twelve flights were cancelled and over 200 delayed late on Monday evening in Hong Kong, aviation authorities said.
"Vicente has intensified abruptly into a severe typhoon," said Wong Wing-tak, a senior Hong Kong observatory official.
Earlier in the afternoon, the brewing cyclone shuttered schools and port operations and sent office workers home amid torrential rain, many rushing to board buses, trains and ferries before a partial transport network shutdown.
The Hong Kong Observatory raised the No. 10 signal early on Tuesday as typhoon Vicente swept much closer to Hong Kong than initially thought, making this one of the strongest typhoons to hit the city in recent years.
Should the signal remain in force after 7 a.m. on Tuesday (1900 EDT), the Hong Kong stock exchange will remain closed for at least part of the day after it dived 3 percent on Monday.
In southern China, more than 33,500 Chinese fishing boats have been alerted to return to harbour with 10,560 fishermen taking shelter ashore in Guangdong, Chinese state media reported, while storm surge and sea wave warnings were heightened with winds of up to 100 kph expected.
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1474
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Don't say that!! A positive NAO means I don't get snow! Just look at last winter... I still cry myself to sleep over it.

OK, maybe I don't, but it was still awful.


in GA our snow depends almost completely on cold spells = negative NAO.
We also spend the whole winter looking at precip type on models to try to find snow.
I would love a monster El nino, and supernegative nao,
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
655. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:



FL all ready had 2 landfalls lol



taz that is jfv....
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Why lol it is July??
Quoting CANTBELIEVEIT:
Looks like another bust season for florida
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Quoting CANTBELIEVEIT:
Looks like another bust season for florida



FL all ready had 2 landfalls lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


its getting in all the negative now so it can be positive all winter.

Don't say that!! A positive NAO means I don't get snow! Just look at last winter... I still cry myself to sleep over it.

OK, maybe I don't, but it was still awful.
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The good Doc tells me he and staff have been super short handed now that this shakeup is happening. He's even had to try to monitor the blog for content. This is why my one comment got removed that day; it wasn't personal. He was just trying to do too many things at once. He's sacrificed a great great deal of himself to bring this endeavor to where it is now. Twenty-fifth can't get here fast enough for him I'm sure. Jeff deserves a nice long vacation before he starts writing the next chapter of his life. 100 currently in South Central Wisconsin, in my old age I'm getting soft; this is brutal!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
For the first time in two months, the NAO is going positive:



It will quickly go back negative, however.


its getting in all the negative now so it can be positive all winter.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It looks to have made landfall:



Agreed.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
oh one more thing..the SPC increased the wind threat for tomorrow..



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It looks to have made landfall:

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The Atlantic remains quiet.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
644. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
Cat Size Number is a POOR indicator of a Storms Impact,as it was designed for Wind Loading on structure's only.

That's why we now have the Surge Data Separate from it, and also have,The Inland Hurricane Warning.

I've been a big advocate for a better system for many years.

A LARGE cat 3 can do as much if not more damage that a small Cat 5 ,say like Camille was.

Size matters greatly in a Hurricane, just take the time to see K's Max Hurricane wind field, and Tropical Storm Force wind radii...and compare to other Hurricanes.


you are 100 % correct...how many yrs would you think it would take to teach the general public with major changes with hurricane impacts...i know they have started slowly and will add alittle each yr.
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Quoting allancalderini:
If Ernesto and Florence develop before August it will be amazing.



that will be vary un likey and wishcasting
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I know it as "freekin"
or "frickin" you must be a foreigner





Southerner,but to some, that's foreign enough.
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For the first time in two months, the NAO is going positive:



It will quickly go back negative, however.
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If Ernesto and Florence develop before August it will be amazing.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232
Im out for a while...I will be back later for the 18z GFS run..
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Cat Size Number is a POOR indicator of a Storms Impact,as it was designed for Wind Loading on structure's only.

That's why we now have the Surge Data Separate from it, and also have,The Inland Hurricane Warning.

I've been a big advocate for a better system for many years.

A LARGE cat 3 can do as much if not more damage that a small Cat 5 ,say like Camille was.

Size matters greatly in a Hurricane, just take the time to see K's Max Hurricane wind field, and Tropical Storm Force wind radii...and compare to other Hurricanes.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh yeah I forgot the Euro doesn't go that far out.Where is the wave at now that they develop.Is it over central Africa?.


the first wave is about to come off Africa..I believe..
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Quoting ncstorm:


no the Euro shows the first precious wave near the islands and also shows the second precious wave coming off Africa in the last frame..
Oh yeah I forgot the Euro doesn't go that far out.Where is the wave at now that they develop.Is it over central Africa?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Quoting washingtonian115:
So let's see..the Ukmet,and the GFS develops the first wave while the ECWMF doesn't but it develops the second wave..this could all mean on thing..THE DOC IS GOING ON VACATION SOON!!!!.I mean look how many blog entries he's been putting out.


no the Euro shows the first precious wave near the islands and also shows the second precious wave coming off Africa in the last frame..
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343 BahaHurican: I do nonetheless notice that the northern part of the UK is shown as cooler than average.

While SeaSurfaceTemperatures from Canada thru Greenland past Iceland are warmer than average, the SSTs for the upperNorthSea and the NorwegianSea from FaroeIslands eastward to Norway are cooler than average.
Mix Scotland's cooler land-temperatures with the cooler NorwegianSea&NorthSea over-ocean temperature, and ya get a "pixel"temperature that's cooler than average.
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633. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:


Personal feeling dont mean much, but the Design now says cat 3, A Cat 4 surge event would still overwhelm certain parts of the system.


Gustav's surge was barely contained in 2008, and Ike's brought High water as well 2 weeks later.


Dr. Masters covers that here in his recent Webinar, as well as Tampa, Houston, Miami and New York.


All port Cities are vulnerable from Brownsville to Maine.








i understand that IKE had a large storm surge, when i went to cameron for rita and ike, ike had a 2 foot higher storm surge than rita..and rita was a stronger cat storm....each storm has it's own personality, too many people concentrate with what cat a storm is classified. i have seen certain slosh models with nola and a slow moving cat 1 storm right west of the miss river can do alot of damage...and throw 24 hrs of heavy rain before landfall and bammm bad news...
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So let's see..the Ukmet,and the GFS develops the first wave while the ECWMF doesn't but it develops the second wave..this could all mean on thing..THE DOC IS GOING ON VACATION SOON!!!!.I mean look how many blog entries he's been putting out.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Miss..we got a low in your AOI

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12z ECMWF @ 240 hours

That's yer precious African Wave.

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Why are some of my favorite bloggers arguing?.Will ya'll just drop it please thanks :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
It would appear from Web Cams (Hong Kong Traffic Department) that mains power is still on Hong Kong island and Kowloon
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 265
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ok, let me spell it out for you again. The "who cares" statement was directed at the recurvature argument of a storm that hasn't even emerged from Africa. Who cares about a model showing it recurve this far in advance. I wasn't saying who cares about the system and that is obvious since I backed that up by saying "the important thing is the potential for a storm." I wasn't trying to show you up, like you tried to do to me in your rebuttal.


no worries..I apologize if you felt I was trying to show you up..
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Quoting yoboi:


what is your personal feeling to what the levees could sustain now...


Personal feeling dont mean much, but the Design now says cat 3, A Cat 4 surge event would still overwhelm certain parts of the system.


Gustav's surge was barely contained in 2008, and Ike's brought High water as well 2 weeks later.


Dr. Masters covers that here in his recent Webinar, as well as Tampa, Houston, Miami and New York.


All port Cities are vulnerable from Brownsville to Maine.

Words on NOLA are at 3:55 into the video




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting yoboi:


what is your personal feeling to what the levees could sustain now...


they can withstand any hurricane or flood mother nature throws at it.
we have succesfully defeated catastrophe

(thats probably not true)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
623. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:


I seriously doubt it.

Vast Defenses Now Shielding New Orleans

Nearly seven years after flood waters from Hurricane Katrina gushed over New Orleans, $14.5 billion worth of civil works designed to block such surges is now in place a 133-mile chain of levees, flood walls, gates and pumps too vast to take in at once, except perhaps from space.

Individual components of the system can be appreciated from a less celestial elevation.


what is your personal feeling to what the levees could sustain now...
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Quoting ncstorm:


and the "who cares" phrase you used wasnt?..okay..have a good one..


Ok, let me spell it out for you again. The "who cares" statement was directed at the recurvature argument of a storm that hasn't even emerged from Africa. Who cares about a model showing it recurve this far in advance. I wasn't saying who cares about the system and that is obvious since I backed that up by saying "the important thing is the potential for a storm." I wasn't trying to show you up, like you tried to do to me in your rebuttal.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Probably due to land friction with the hills/mountains there?


Probably.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting MississippiWx:


The "my blob is better than your blob" statement is pretty defensive/childish.

Anyway, out for the day. Have a good day everyone.


and the "who cares" phrase you used wasnt?..okay..have a good one..
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Quoting yoboi:


do they use the same size pumps in hong kong as they use in nola???


I seriously doubt it.

Vast Defenses Now Shielding New Orleans

Nearly seven years after flood waters from Hurricane Katrina gushed over New Orleans, $14.5 billion worth of civil works designed to block such surges is now in place a 133-mile chain of levees, flood walls, gates and pumps too vast to take in at once, except perhaps from space.

Individual components of the system can be appreciated from a less celestial elevation.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting Civicane49:
The northern structure of Vicente is getting disheveled.



Probably due to land friction with the hills/mountains there?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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