June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The 00z and 12z runs have more data than the 06z and 18z ones.
Yup, atleast the gfs is showing something. Still going to wait and see other runs show this too.
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so the position of the bermuda high is it good or bad?
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TCFA reissued for 90E.

WTPN21 PHNC 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222051Z JUL 12//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 112.4W TO 12.1N 120.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
113.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
110.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 113.0W, APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 231636Z 89H METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING
LLCC WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 231636Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 20
TO 25 KNOT WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EASTERN
QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST ENHANCING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
ESTIMATED AT 26-29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 222100).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
242100Z.//
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Quoting wxchaser97:
This time both lows dont really develop like the last run, will have to wait for consistancy on the runs before betting on anything.


The 00z and 12z runs have more data than the 06z and 18z ones.
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18z GFS 168 hours

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18Z GFS only shows a weak low with the first wave in 5 days and a weak low with the second wave in 9.
This time both lows dont really develop like the last run, will have to wait for consistancy on the runs before betting on anything.
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Blob watch Mediterranean. You know, the wannabe-medicane (circulating subtropical low in the Med). At least south Italy is gonna be drenched right now.

Link

Edit
Not detached to any front
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The 18Z GFS only shows a weak low with the first wave in 5 days and a weak low with the second wave in 9.
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This is the gfs at 384 hrs, new wave off africa, the low still lingers, and a 1003mb low over the great lakes.
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Surface low on map now.

Just got back from my cousin's house where their transformer is on fire.
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Quoting Articuno:
Blog got silent for some odd reason.



It is a usual occurrence and unexplained. If you are in a conversation with a lot of people and there is a lull. It is usually 20 minutes after the hour or 20 minutes before the hour. It happens on the blog all the time, but no one really notices. Try it sometime.
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Quoting Grothar:



YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSS! Yo, Wash!
Lol thanks Gro.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17098
Quoting washingtonian115:



YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSS! Yo, Wash!
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Big High setting up.

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Quoting Articuno:
Blog got silent for some odd reason.


People watching videos.
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749. Ylee
Weathercam from Hong Kong...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That wind gust looked mighty similar to this:



...Which ended up being over 150 mph. Given that Vicente was a Category 4 hurricane at landfall, I would not doubt it.


Pretty wild. I'm always taken aback watching those vids. I cannot imagine sustained (!) winds like this happen in Germany.
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Blog got silent for some odd reason.
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Quoting Articuno:

Whats up Gro, Besides the Celing. :P


Nothing! :) But I will be doing a full blob blog on the wave coming off of Africa. It looks like it will be a due-wester for a long time.
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Quoting Civicane49:
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Analysis



Wow... the SAL has really decreased
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Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Analysis

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Civicane49:
That is a fat tropical wave it will probable loose its thunderstorm when it reach the water.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4404
Typhoon VICENTE's eyewall is now the Hairiest Weather on the Planet currently, no doubt.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Quoting Chucktown:


Probably in kilometers per hour, but still translates to about 94 mph.

That wind gust looked mighty similar to this:



...Which ended up being over 150 mph. Given that Vicente was a Category 4 hurricane at landfall, I would not doubt it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

152 mph wind gust.


Probably in kilometers per hour, but still translates to about 94 mph.
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Quoting Dakster:


What is the rating of that event?


I dont know as it was Not Earth Directed.

from Solarham.net

Updated 7/23/2012 @ 21:40 UTC

Farsided Solar Flare and CME

A bright Full Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced early this morning by a solar flare around Sunspot 1520 now transiting the farside of the Sun. The video below shows the eruption as seen by STEREO Ahead and also the CME by STEREO Ahead COR2 and Lasco C2. The plasma cloud looks to be directed directly towards the STEREO Ahead spacecraft, but will not be directed towards Earth. The Earth bound proton levels have increased and are currently hovering near the S1 Minor Radiation Storm threshold.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
WWE monday night RAW 1,000 is tonight
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting RTSplayer:
I mean look at that, the anomalies are ridiculous everywhere in the N. Hemisphere anyway.


Arctic Ocean SST Anomalies



Link to Danish Meteorological Institute

If you think SSTS are high in the Pacific and Atlantic, just look at the anomolies in the Arctic Ocean.
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Quoting Patrap:
Published on Jul 23, 2012 by ve3en1

A bright Full Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced by a solar flare around Sunspot 1520 now transiting the farside of the Sun. This video shows the flare as captured by STEREO Ahead and also the CME by STEREO Ahead COR2 and Lasco C2.


www.solarham.net




What is the rating of that event?
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Quoting Articuno:


sustained 100-120 gusts to 150+ in that video at least.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting Patrap:
Wxrisk.com

18Z NAM - WRF for Tuesday... shows the DERECHO/ MCS racing SE from northwest IND/ Chicago area into WVA in 11 hours


I'm a lineman and I went to WV on that storm.Some of the people I talked to said the trees were bent over touching the ground the wind was so strong.
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Quoting Articuno:

152 mph wind gust.
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Quoting Patrap:
Wxrisk.com

18Z NAM - WRF for Tuesday... shows the DERECHO/ MCS racing SE from northwest IND/ Chicago area into WVA in 11 hours



I was afraid of this. Every time you see a cluster storms forming in Illinois, you have to watch for a derecho to form and come out of Ohio and right into WV. Seems to happen every couple of years or so, but I don't remember 2 in one year. Since they are heat driven, I guess we hit the jackpot :/ Good thing we all have camping skills!
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Quoting Grothar:

Whats up Gro, Besides the Celing. :P
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Yo Gro!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17098
727. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TYPHOON VICENTE (1208)
6:00 AM JST July 23 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon Overland South China

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Vicente (950 hPa) located at 22.1N 112.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: Overland

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in south quadrant
70 NM from the center in north quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in south quadrant
150 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 22.6N 107.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Overland Southern China
48 HRS: 22.1N 105.4E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
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Typhoon Vicente:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Patrap:
Nothing like the Roaring Whine up scale and down during a Major.

Ayyyyye-eeeeeee


Guess some OZ-type would have loved to be there in his full gear ;-)
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Published on Jul 23, 2012 by ve3en1

A bright Full Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced by a solar flare around Sunspot 1520 now transiting the farside of the Sun. This video shows the flare as captured by STEREO Ahead and also the CME by STEREO Ahead COR2 and Lasco C2.


www.solarham.net


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Nothing like the Roaring Whine up scale and down during a Major.

Ayyyyye-eeeeeee
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Ehmm, really crazy: Hong Kong / found via twitter


Crazy Footage Of The Huge Typhoon Hitting Hong Kong Right Now / Adam Taylor

Hong Kong is in the middle of its worst typhoon since 1999.

According to Reuters, "Typhoon Vicente" has a number 10 signal, which means that the financial markets, schools, businesses and non-essential government services will remain closed for some time. Chinese authorities have put areas on orange alert.

You'd be pretty crazy to go outside in this weather, but YouTube user hkstormchaser is doing just that. Here's his or her video of the craziest moment of the storm, he/she says its past its worst now.


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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.