June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormHype:


How's the US govt going to buy BP with a $15T debt? You going to loan them money? BP is in way better financial health than the US govt. Perhaps it should be the other way around. Right now, the Chinese are buying and owning us, which is probably worse than BP. Don't label me unpatriotic. I'm just telling you like it is. They finance our debt, and when they stop (within 3 years) you'll wish you had a lot of gold, guns and farm land. No one will give a rats arse about global warming on that day. Currency debasement happened to the UK decades ago and its going to happen here. No politician can stop that.
BP could Buy the US!!!
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Quoting beell:
A question for Dr. Masters, or anyone that feels qualified to answer.

From the Good Doc's current entry:

the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average;

The question, "What is the generally accepted period for the 20th century global temperature average (land and sea)?"

I think that's a trick question. Some people say that since there is no year zero, 2000 is part of the 20th century, but you can define it anyway you like I think as long as it is agreed on.
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916. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (1208)
9:00 AM JST July 24 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Overland South China

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Vicente (970 hPa) located at 22.1N 112.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: Overland

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in south quadrant
60 NM from the center in north quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in south quadrant
150 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 22.4N 106.4E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Let me ask, how does anyone plan on fixing our national debt and deficits without some sort of tax increase, or significant spending cut, or some combination of the two?


You can thank Apple, Microsoft, and Cysco, along with IBM, for inventing many of the advanced gadgets and computers we use during the 1990's and early 2000's, only to give the manufacturing contracts and consequently the technology to other nations. By selling these devices to such nations' peoples, the U.S. information monopolies gave those nations the ability to compete with the U.S. companies through increased data management and information processing, and without personal or national investment in R&D on their parts.

This is only one tiny shred of the U.S. fiscal and foreign trade policy woes.

The U.S. and Canada forbid mining contracts or permits to their own companies, and sell them to Japanese or Chinese mining companies instead, buying our own resources back from foreign nations. Oil is the same case with BP, who is more than half owned by other nations' people, but drills our oil and sells it back to us.

It's as ridiculous as if a U.S. farmer paid China or England to be allowed to eat his own corn from his own field. Analogy is perfect.


Taxes need to be raised on someone, that much is clear.

Spending needs to be cut, that much is also clear.


Foreign trade policy and mining and drilling policies need to be changed to a much more nationalist policy before foreign countries end up owning more of American businesses and natural resources than the Americans do. Heck its almost that bad already.


The U.S. government should buy out as much of BP as possible, and then sell the shares back to natural born U.S. citizens. That's not communism, that's nationalism to try to fix our screwed up economy, it's nothing personal against the British either, it's just we need the money and resources to stay here.


How's the US govt going to buy BP with a $15T debt? You going to loan them money? BP is in way better financial health than the US govt. Perhaps it should be the other way around. Right now, the Chinese are buying and owning us, which is probably worse than BP. Don't label me unpatriotic. I'm just telling you like it is. They finance our debt, and when they stop (within 3 years) you'll wish you had a lot of gold, guns and farm land. No one will give a rats arse about global warming on that day. Currency debasement happened to the UK decades ago and its going to happen here. No politician can stop that.
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Quoting wxmod:


You are absolutely right. BUT. Every country is looking over an abyss all the time. This country operates the same as China, Europe, Russia, India, etc. If we're are the last man standing, we won. Pretty bleak, eh?



Then whoever has been in control of our fiscal strategy for the past several decades are moron(s).



You do not win a "free for all" by giving your opponents access to your own resources and then buying them back above cost. That's suicide.


If you believe the world is currently engaged in a fiscal cold war "free for all," which it most certainly is in reality, then U.S. trade policy is actually the exact opposite of what wins a free for all, at least conceptually.


Whether by design or accident, this is the case.

Just as an example, in the past 20 years the U.S. has spent about ten times more money in Iraq than the value of all of the oil in the country combined.

Somewhere between one quarter and one half of our entire Federal debt is from wars in Iraq, no fly zone enforcement in Iraq, or the interest incurred on the original debts from these operations.

We have spent approximately 12 trillion dollars on our military in the past 20 years, adjusting dollar values to present day dollars, at least half of that was in Iraq and Afghanistan alone.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


It's not there anymore though...
Link There you go.
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I took this picture at my visit to Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. Didn't realize I would become so interested in small twin-engine Cessna planes.



Note* Daytona International Speedway in the distance



Meet my friend ZEUS, Zeus is a 262-processor Beowulf computer cluster with 64-bit, 3.2 GHz Intel Xeon, 4GB RAM. Here is a list of softwares installed Link.



Certainly this is the future of computer models.
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Quoting Grothar:
This is Central Africa. Now that would be something to look for.


Lets just hope it want look like that when it comes off shore!!!
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting washingtonian115:
No politics tonight please.We know the U.S is going to hell but this blog isn't about that..




Unless it's the politics of the left. That is tolerarted without complaints.
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Nice photoshop in that image there.Maybe I should get paid to photoshop a monkey on top of the capital hill dome..
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yeah... Total BS!


It's not there anymore though...
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From 8 pm NHC Discussion:
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. Link (See Complete Discussion) ELSEWHERE...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW.

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E NICARAGUA...E
HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 82W-87W.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N76W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.


Link to detailed National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Caribbean Discussion
over & out.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Why can't it be? A commercial flight?
Planes don't fly in space. Nor do they go through the eye of a typhoon (At least I hope they don't). That is just a low level swirl. You have to remember flights typically fly in the 30000-40000ft range. The clouds of the typhoon are at at least that tall if not higher.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Somebody on Reddit is claiming this is a photo of Typhoon Vincente. You would think people would call BS.
But no it gets to the front page.


Yeah... Total BS!
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Somebody on Reddit is claiming this is a photo of Typhoon Vincente. You would think people would call BS.
But no it gets to the front page.


Why can't it be? A commercial flight?
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WPAC 180hrs




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pr, post the loop of wave emerging West Africa,thanks in advance.
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Somebody on Reddit is claiming this is a photo of Typhoon Vincente. You would think people would call BS.
But no it gets to the front page.
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Quoting StormHype:


Board's getting desperate I see. A fart has more convection than this 'low', and Dmax isn't going to help that.
LOLOLOLOL.Yes we are desperate..the Atlantic is a barren waste land.Lol.
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Conus WV

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Wave looking good even though there is moderate to high shear. The next 1-2 days will be important because if it survives then we know the cv season can start.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting spathy:
It looks to me like our little NErn Gulf low wants to take advantage of what little its got going for it this evening. Dmax could be interesting later.


Board's getting desperate I see. A fart has more convection than this 'low', and Dmax isn't going to help that.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Whole world is headed towards that financial abyss. We're just an even heavier rock than Europe and the Euro. As most here know, I would love to expound on this a great deal; but I'm learning. :) First Atlantic major before August 15? Hoping the first is a CV that curves to the NE like the majority last year. Would nice if that pattern set up again, because if not; Florida and Gulf going to be ingesting at least a couple strong to majors this year.



There are many issues converging which threaten to undermine the value of all currency systems, which may actually be a good thing in the long term, but will likely involve much upheaval in the short and medium term.

Manufacturing technology is advancing in ways that make human labor obsolete in more and more fields, which leads to monstrous unemployment rates. A startling recent example is Foxconn, a 500,000 employees computer components manufacturing company (associated with Apple and other smartphone companies,) which is going to be laying off up to 80% of it's employees because their processes have become so automated that human beings are no longer needed to do anything except maintain and repair the robots. In some cases the robots are even self diagnosing and self repairing for simple glitches.


Who will compete with that in the labor market? The computer companies all over the world sold out their labor markets to a foreign nation's companies, and then that company sold out it's own people to the robots.

Wouldn't be such a bad thing, in theory, in a utopia, but in reality, the unemployed or under employed individuals suffer the brunt of the economic blowback of such a disruptive increase in technology.

Ok, so "The Jetsons" has arrived, and in some cases we are beyond that, except the ridiculous idealized flying cars. To make a point, I actually worked computer phone tech support for a while, several years ago, yet I have as many as 4 ports on my current computer for which I am not sure of their purpose or function...

But unfortunately the Utopia has not arrived, and will not in the short or medium term, either because governments and corporations do not care about the natural consequences to the individual in such a situation, or else because they cannot conceive of the connection between these events.

Who makes all the money? The CEO and the top two or three shareholders. The engineers don't even make the money.


Whenever world unemployment hits like 20 or 30% due to even further increases in automated manufacturing and self assembly, from where will the unemployed receive income so that they can buy food and clothes from their own land, which will likely be owned by mega-corporations?
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dang just realized the blog is so bored that waves coming off africa is amusing as much as a hurricanes
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892. beell
A question for Dr. Masters, or anyone that feels qualified to answer.

From the Good Doc's current entry:

the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average;

The question, "What is the generally accepted period for the 20th century global temperature average (land and sea)?"
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting allancalderini:
the wave that is exiting Africa will have a problem with wind shear at the moment.
It will run into 40 knot shear but dry air isnt a problem for the first time.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Everyone just relax it will be mid August before we get any action!!
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
the wave that is exiting Africa will have a problem with wind shear at the moment.
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Quoting ncstorm:


okay agent mulder..I dont think they are tracking people who are viewing the nogaps..LOL
Can you give me a link to the navy model page?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
885. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:


Let me ask, how does anyone plan on fixing our national debt and deficits without some sort of tax increase, or significant spending cut, or some combination of the two?


You can thank Apple, Microsoft, and Cysco, along with IBM, for inventing many of the advanced gadgets and computers we use during the 1990's and early 2000's, only to give the manufacturing contracts and consequently the technology to other nations. By selling these devices to such nations' peoples, the U.S. information monopolies gave those nations the ability to compete with the U.S. companies through increased data management and information processing, and without personal or national investment in R&D on their parts.

This is only one tiny shred of the U.S. fiscal and foreign trade policy woes.

The U.S. and Canada forbid mining contracts or permits to their own companies, and sell them to Japanese or Chinese mining companies instead, buying our own resources back from foreign nations. Oil is the same case with BP, who is more than half owned by other nations' people, but drills our oil and sells it back to us.

It's as ridiculous as if a U.S. farmer paid China or England to be allowed to eat his own corn from his own field. Analogy is perfect.


Taxes need to be raised on someone, that much is clear.

Spending needs to be cut, that much is also clear.


Foreign trade policy and mining and drilling policies need to be changed to a much more nationalist policy before foreign countries end up owning more of American businesses and natural resources than the Americans do. Heck its almost that bad already.


The U.S. government should buy out as much of BP as possible, and then sell the shares back to natural born U.S. citizens. That's not communism, that's nationalism to try to fix our screwed up economy, it's nothing personal against the British either, it's just we need the money and resources to stay here.


You are absolutely right. BUT. Every country is looking over an abyss all the time. This country operates the same as China, Europe, Russia, India, etc. If we're are the last man standing, we won. Pretty bleak, eh?
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Since Usain Bolt was mentioned, then if you're talking about running then the U.S. is screwed.


If you are talking about swimming, it's pretty hard to beat the U.S. in anything lately.


No comment. LOL
Watch out for the "Missile".


Vicious Vicente
Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Typhoon Vicente savaged Hong Kong yesterday, catching thousands of commuters unawares and disrupting services on air, land and sea.
Typhoon signal No 9 for the northeast gale was in force last night as Vicente moved closest to Hong Kong on its way to landfall in Guangdong.

At least seven people - three men and four women - were injured in storm- related accidents.

The Airport Authority reported delays to 58 arrivals and 63 departures. At least 11 flights were canceled.

Some bus services - mostly cross- harbor buses - were suspended last night. The Peak Tram and the Tramways stopped running yesterday evening.

A woman was knocked unconscious by a two-meter flying wooden board on Connaught Road Central. Four others were also struck by the board but were not seriously hurt.
In Aberdeen, a woman in her 50s was hit on the head by a falling tree branch. She was treated at Aberdeen Jockey Club Clinic.

Vicente, which means "to conquer" in Spanish, is the third cyclone to hit this summer.
The No 8 storm signal means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometers per hour or more are expected from the northeast, said Hong Kong Observatory senior scientific officer Wong Wing-tak.

Typhoon Vicente was centered about 150 kilometers south of Hong Kong last night and was forecast to move northwest toward the coast of Guangdong.

It all began with a standby signal No 1 hoisted on Saturday as Vicente dallied off Hong Kong. The strong wind signal No 3 went up at 5.20am yesterday.

It then intensified so rapidly that by 3.40pm, the Observatory warned it would be raising the No 8 signal, which was hoisted at 5.40pm yesterday, sparking a mad scramble for people to catch ferries, buses and the MTR.

The No 9 signal was hoisted at 11.20pm

Outlying island ferries were among the first to suspend services. At 8pm, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Waglan Island were 98 kilometers per hour; at Sai Kung 71kph; and Cheung Chau 63kph, Wong said.

A Cathay Pacific spokeswoman said: "We plan to operate our flights as scheduled. So far there have been some delays due to air traffic flow control as a result of the bad weather but nothing major."

MTR trains were crowded as travelers rushed home. Throngs at Admiralty and Mei Foo stations were the worst. All schools were closed in the afternoon and general outpatient clinic services were suspended. The government received at least 37 reports of fallen trees. One in Chai Wan blocked one lane of a road.

The Leisure and Culture Services Department has put up railings and ropes to stabilize giant Chinese banyans along Park Lane Avenue in Tsim Sha Tsui where a fallen tree injured five pedestrians three days ago.

Between 6pm and 10pm yesterday, 35.4 millimeters of rain was recorded.

In Kowloon City's Carpenter Road, part of the concrete canopy on a primary school's third floor collapsed onto a pedestrian walkway. Pieces struck a car but no one was injured.

Although Typhoon Vicente brought Central to a near standstill, some tourists at Wan Chai's Golden Bauhinia Square insisted on walking around.

And dozens of surfers enjoyed the one-meter high waves at Big Wave Bay and Shek O earlier in the day.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
If the wave develop is it going to the U.S??


Very long range but ensemble means keep a trough near the East Coast through two weeks.
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Will we be bust with the tropics next week?.Let's hope so..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
This is Central Africa. Now that would be something to look for.


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880. wxmod
The amazing fires in Russia. MODIS realtime (distorted)

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe they put something like a tracking device in your computer.Lol.


okay agent mulder..I dont think they are tracking people who are viewing the nogaps..LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286
We had a fire here in Wilmington earlier from a lightening strike..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286
Whole world is headed towards that financial abyss. We're just an even heavier rock than Europe and the Euro. As most here know, I would love to expound on this a great deal; but I'm learning. :) First Atlantic major before August 15? Hoping the first is a CV that curves to the NE like the majority last year. Would be nice if that pattern set up again, because if not; Florida and Gulf going to be ingesting at least a couple strong to majors this year.
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Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..its safe..I dont know why it says that when its a govt site but its always been like that
Maybe they put something like a tracking device in your computer.Lol.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Their better not be nothing wrong with my computer ncstorm..or I'm coming after you.Lol.


LOL..its safe..I dont know why it says that when its a govt site but its always been like that
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh. Thought you were referring to swimming.

I think that we should be doing a lot better in swimming considering that we're completely surrounded by water (over 900km of coastline).
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Their better not be nothing wrong with my computer ncstorm..or I'm coming after you.Lol.
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Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, I'm talking about running. We have a very strong track program...from kindergarten up to University level.

Oh. Thought you were referring to swimming.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
Global Warming's Terrifying New Math
Three simple numbers that add up to global catastrophe - and that make clear who the real enemy is

by: Bill McKibben

Link
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Since Usain Bolt was mentioned, then if you're talking about running then the U.S. is screwed.


If you are talking about swimming, it's pretty hard to beat the U.S. in anything lately.

Yeah, I'm talking about running. We have a very strong track program...from kindergarten up to University level.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Since Usain Bolt was mentioned, then if you're talking about running then the U.S. is screwed.


If you are talking about swimming, it's pretty hard to beat the U.S. in anything lately.

I agree.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
Quoting washingtonian115:
It says it's an unsafe site.


it always says that..its the navy site so no viruses..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.