Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012 +40
June 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated May 2012 the 3rd warmest on record. June 2012 global land temperatures were the warmest on record; this makes three months in a row--April, May, and June--in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2012 was the 328th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. We've now had three consecutive top-five warmest months on record; April 2012 was the 5th warmest April on record, and May 2012 was the 2nd warmest May on record. The increase in global temperatures relative to average, compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) is due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, where a La Niña event ended in April, and borderline El Niño conditions now exist. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during June 2012 was the smallest in the 46-year period of record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June in his June 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably:

- The U.K. suffered through its wettest June since at least 1910, and coolest such since 1991.

- The monsoon season has been especially devastating so far along the banks of the Brahmaputra River in northeast India and Bangladesh. Over 2000 villages have been flooded and at least 190 deaths reported so far. Almost 20 million people in all have been displaced.

- The Korean Peninsula continued to endure its worst drought in at least 105 years.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2012. In the Northern Hemisphere, most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Arctic sea ice has greatest June loss on record
Arctic sea ice saw its greatest-ever decrease during the month of June, and ice extent averaged over the entire month was the 2nd lowest for June in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The last three Junes (2010 - 2012) have had the three smallest ice extents for the month, with June 2012 being the 21st consecutive June and the 133rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. During much of June 2012 and extending into the first half of July, the Arctic Dipole pattern set up. This atmospheric circulation pattern features a surface high pressure system in the Arctic north of Alaska, and a low pressure system on the Eurasian side of the Arctic. This results in winds blowing from south to north over Siberia, pushing warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. The Arctic Dipole pattern has broken down over the past few days, and is expected to be absent through early August. This should slow Arctic sea ice loss, and ice extent may no longer be at record low levels by the first week of August.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 as of July 22 (yellow line) compared to all the other years since satellite observations began in 1979. Ice area in 2012 during most of June and July has been the lowest on record. The previous record low years were 2007 and 2011. Note that sea ice area (as shown here) and sea ice extent (as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center) are not the same thing, but one can use either to quantify sea ice, and both show very similar behavior. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June
The globe experienced three new billion-dollar weather disasters in June, bringing the total for the year to nine, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report. The most expensive disaster in June occurred in China, where heavy rains between the between June 20 - 29 affected northern, central, eastern and southern sections of the country. The rains left at least 50 people dead in 17 separate provinces, and caused damage estimated at CNY17.4 billion (USD2.73 billion). The U.S. suffered two billion-dollar severe weather events in June, bringing the total number of such events to six for the year. The record for most billion-dollar disasters in a year in the U.S. is fourteen (according to NOAA/NCDC) or seventeen (according to Aon Benfield.) The most costly event in June 2012 came across portions of Texas and New Mexico, where severe thunderstorms pelted areas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan region) with golf ball and baseball-sized hail. The Insurance Council of Texas said that more than 100,000 claims were filed and total insured losses in the state would exceed $1 billion, with total losses near $1.75 billion. A separate hail event in Colorado and Wyoming caused more than $700 million in insured losses, and $1.25 billion in total losses.


Figure 3. Weather disasters costing at least half a billion dollars so far in 2012, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield in their June Catastrophe Report.

Heaviest rains in 60 years deluge Beijing, killing 37
China's latest billion-dollar weather disaster is a torrential rainstorm that hit Beijing Saturday night, dumping the the heaviest rains the city has seen in 60 years, according to Associated Press. The resulting flooding killed 37 people and did $1.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour Saturday night left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.


Jeff Masters
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1352. AussieStorm 1:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If this were to follow the 1016mb line it would probably go into the Carolinas:


it could "pump the ridge"
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13769
1353. LargoFl 1:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
wash d.c etc...pay attention to your local warnings this afternoon..................HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
849 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018- VAZ052>057-
251015-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
849 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE
AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
LARGE HAIL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM WEDNESDAY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WATERS.

A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA AS HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$
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1354. GeorgiaStormz 1:37 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525
1355. LargoFl 1:38 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
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1357. Autistic2 1:39 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
I believe most people don't like the idea or the expense incurred when having to make changes to how they live. Take for instance. HCFC Refrigerant(Freon) 22 (which is what is in the AC that cools your home) is being phased out. The cost of this is crazy. 4 years ago you could, if you had the proper license, buy a 30# drum of R-22 for $40. Last year it was $200. Right now that same drum is in the $500 neighborhood. It is now cheaper to pay for new R-410a (HFC) equipment to replace what is in your home. Which this is what has to be done now if your unit totally fails. You can no longer purchase R-22 equipment. There are people that believe this is a racket just so someone can make more money. The actual cost of going green is high, and there are a great number of people that can't afford it. R-12 (CFC) (used in car AC's) was phased out in the 90's. There was cost in this as well but you could live without AC in your car if you couldn't afford the retrofit. It is not something people want to deal with in their home though.

It’s a scam that endangers all our lives.

Freon 22 = 120 psi working pressure
R-410a = 300-500 working pressure

Freon = 22 can be inhaled (kids do it to get high)
R-410a = Small amounts will suck all the moister out of you lungs, break down the surfactant in you lungs and kill you hammer dead.

R-410a = a sensor must be installed to detect even small leaks. This is not being done due to the high cost of replacement.

R-410a = still has some Freon 22 in it.




Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
1358. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1359. washingtonian115 1:41 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:

And the Derecho begins...
Don't show that picture!!.That's the devil's child!.And not surprisingly the sorry morning crew Tucker,Allison,and Tony are not taking this situation seriously.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 11180
1361. LargoFl 1:41 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
...this line sure looks like its headed eastward towards Florida once again, this afternoon or evening might turn out interesting
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1362. Stormchaser2007 1:44 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
Here's the lightning in Felix I was referring to yesterday:

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294
1363. Autistic2 1:45 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
The cost of going green is sometimes high. Then again, the cost of doing the right thing by correcting past mistakes often is. Six months of cancer care is considerably more expensive than six decades of cigarette smoking, but when the only other option is just to throw your hands in the air and die, what real choice do you have?


What you say is true. However some large business will use that logic to GREATLY increase the cost beyond what it needs to be.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
1364. GeorgiaStormz 1:45 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
TWC used WU interactive radar in their G+ post.
seems they get along quite well
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1365. Neapolitan 1:51 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
Quoting Autistic2:

It’s a scam that endangers all our lives.

Freon 22 = 120 psi working pressure
R-410a = 300-500 working pressure

Freon = 22 can be inhaled (kids do it to get high)
R-410a = Small amounts will suck all the moister out of you lungs, break down the surfactant in you lungs and kill you hammer dead.

R-410a = a sensor must be installed to detect even small leaks. This is not being done due to the high cost of replacement.

R-410a = still has some Freon 22 in it.




Freon 22 = destroys the zone
R-410a = doesn't destroy the ozone

FTW.

Much of what you wrote is, quite frankly, rubbish.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11302
1366. RTSplayer 1:59 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


"In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - The wise words of Jedi Master Obi-Wan Kenobi


What would you call it then?

Clearly people are affected by events that have nothing to do with skill, nor even the free will of other good or evil people.

Gambling:
Lottery.
Craps.

You can make a millionaire out of a fool in five minutes.

Even disasters are not always a matter of wisdom or planning. Mohenjo Daro was struck by a meteor and obliterated, with the ancient aliens crowd claiming evidence of a nuclear explosion, but then again a large enough meteor could in fact cause a nuclear explosion. If you were there when it happened, you probably had "bad luck" and even if you survived the initial impact you probably died from radiation or burns. If you were elsewhere you had "good luck".

It makes little difference whether this event was pre-ordained by causality from the moment of creation of the universe, because the place of one's birth was nevertheless "lucky" to produce survival through no merit, or "unlucky" to produce death through no necessary lack of merit.


To use another of Obi Wan's lines, "From a certain point of view...," luck does exist, even if everything is predetermined.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 1038
1367. SSideBrac 2:00 PM GMT on July 24, 2012    
I was impressed that throughout the impacts of Vicente, Hong Kong seemed to retain mains power & internet connectivity and suffer little building damage- I was able to access a series of HK Web Cams (Transport Dept & HK Observatory) for the duration of Vicente.
They have proven a high level of resilience (perhaps what one should expect in one of the world's leading financial capitals)that many places could do well to try and emulate.
Main thing to me though is that all my contacts there are fine and well
So now - back to eyes on the Caribbean - although that area East of Phillipines could eventually bring something Hong Kong's way again.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 227
1368. razedbywolves 8:47 PM GMT on July 25, 2012    
RE: June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June


4th warmest since when ?

what about the 2000 years prior to that "when" ?

what about the 5000 years prior the new "when" ?

what about the 10,000 years prior to the next "when" ?

how many million years am I left with ?


when was the "coolest" June ?


who won the 1447 Super Bowl,World Series,and Indy 500 ?


Member Since: July 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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