Historic 2012 U.S. drought continues to expand and intensify

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on July 20, 2012

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The great U.S. drought of 2012 continues to accelerate, and grew larger and more intense over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, July 19. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought expanded from 61% to 64%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought jumped from 37% to 42%. These are truly historic levels of drought, exceeded only during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s and a severe drought in the mid-1950s. If we make the reasonable assumption that the current area covered by drought is representative of what the average for the entire month of July will be (based on the latest drought forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), the July 2012 drought is second only to the great Dust Bowl drought of July 1934 in terms of the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought. The five months with the greatest percent area in moderate or greater drought, since 1895, now look like this:

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Jul 2012, 64%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%

If we consider the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought, July 2012 ranks in 5th place:

1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 43%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 42%


Figure 1. The twice-monthly U.S. Drought Outlook, updated on Thursday, July 19, predicts that drought will continue through October over most of the U.S., and expand to the north and northeast. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The drought forecast: not encouraging
In their twice-monthly drought outlook, released on Thursday, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center had this to say about the drought: The combination of heat and dryness has severely reduced the quality and quantity of the corn and soybean crop, with 38 percent of the corn and 30 percent of the soybeans rated as poor or very poor as of July 15 by NASS/USDA. Some states, such as Kentucky, Missouri, and Indiana, had over 70 percent of their corn adversely rated. Unfortunately, drought is expected to develop, persist, or intensify across these areas, and temperatures are likely to average above normal. Some widely-scattered relief may come in the form of cold front passages or organized thunderstorm clusters (MCSs), but widespread relief for much of the area is not expected. Unfortunately, the self-perpetuation of regional drought conditions, with very dry soils and very limited evapotranspiration, tends to inhibit widespread development of or weaken existing thunderstorm complexes. It would require a dramatic shift in the weather pattern to provide significant relief to this drought, and most tools and models do not forecast this. Unfortunately, all indicators (short and medium-term, August, and August-October) favor above normal temperatures. With much of the Plains already in drought, above normal temperatures expected into the fall, and a dry short-term and 30-day forecast, the drought should persist, with some possible development in the northern Plains.

One bright spot: drought conditions are expected to improve over the Southwest U.S. over the next few weeks, as the annual summer monsoon peaks and brings heavy rains. The Southeast U.S. has seen some improvement over the past week, due to an upper-level low pressure system that has brought heavy rains. The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S.


Figure 2. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts. The drought of 2012 could well make it three out of four. "It might be a $50 billion event for the economy as it blends into everything over the next four quarters," said Michael Swanson, agricultural economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, the largest commercial agriculture lender. Only three $50 billion weather disasters have hit the U.S. since 1980.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. The models are showing formation of an extratropical cyclone along an old frontal boundary over 1,000 miles off the Northeast U.S. coast on Tuesday, and it is possible such a storm could acquire tropical characteristics and get a name. Such a storm would not be a threat to any land areas. There is an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean that is squashing development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa, so it doesn't look too likely that the U.S. will get something it really needs--a big, wet Category 1 hurricane that sloshes ashore over the Gulf Coast, stalling over the Midwest, bringing copious drought-busting rains.


Figure 3. Portlight volunteers unloading supplies at the FBC in Henryville, Indiana on March 10, 2012. Henryville was devastated by an EF-4 tornado on March 2 that killed 11 people along its path.

Helping out with disaster relief
It's been another busy year for natural disasters in the U.S., and the portlight.org disaster-relief charity, founded by members of the wunderground community, has been very active helping out victims of this year's disasters. Portlight responded to the deadly March tornado outbreak in the Midwest, two separate April tornado outbreaks in Texas and Oklahoma, and the June wildfires in Colorado. Paul Timmons of Portlight has put together a year-to-date summary of portlight's efforts in 2012, and has this call for action:

Now we’re in July…things have gotten quiet, but we know they won’t be quiet for long. We’re in the middle of hurricane season and mid-summer is a time of unsettled and dangerous weather that happens when we least expect it. Our work is never really done and new tasks pop up all the time. With your help and the help of our friends like the amazing people at Wunderground.com and our new friends at Team Rubicon, The Mahalia Partnership, and CCDC, we will be ready.

Where do we go from here? That depends on you, our supporters, volunteers and friends. Our purpose hasn’t changed: we will continue providing support, relief and aid for unserved, under-served and forgotten people wherever they may be…


Peace to all this weekend, and I'll be back on Sunday or Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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2340. icmoore
12:22 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Well sure. As long no one has a differing opinion, it's kumbaya.


Good morning, Doug and kumbaya my friend :) Thanks for getting that stuck in my head LOL!
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
2339. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2338. MahFL
12:14 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The middle to end of August is when the MJO may move back to our side of the world. This could be bad news as I would expect that the US will get hit buy a MAJOR Hurricane this year. I found this interesting from Doc's blog an I believe someone else on here mentioned this as well.

"The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S."

Jeff Masters




Yikes, that looks like along MJO period, 2 Aug to 1 Sep at least.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3492
2337. icmoore
12:12 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
The most disturbing thing I've seen here this Spring/summer, is the no show of ALL of Audubon Parks Migratory nesting Birds. No Herons, No Blue Herons,and other birds that were actually expanding in the Oaks to the NEast as well.


I've been walking the same Course since 08 and its really disturbing to see no return this season.

Birds of Bird Island

The natural phenomenon of numerous species of wading birds can be seen up close in Audubon Park. Hundreds of birds nest on Bird Island each year—raising chicks and constantly making noise while bickering and begging. Some species of birds found on Bird Island include Great Egrets, Snowy Egrets, Cattle Egrets, Little Blue Heron, Tri-colored heron, Black-crowned Night Heron, Yellow-crowned Night Heron, Double-crested Cormorant and Anhinga.



Aububon Park, credit: Patrap Images


Good morning everyone. Only .40" of rain yesterday but a whole lot of lightening and wind. Interesting clouds out early this morning.
That is very disturbing, Patrap, my first thought was the BP oil spill. What are your thoughts? I sure hope they can recover and begin nesting again soon.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
2336. bappit
12:11 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
What strong shear looks like--94L from three years ago.

Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
2335. StormTracker2K
12:01 PM GMT on July 23, 2012
The middle to end of August is when the MJO may move back to our side of the world. This could be bad news as I would expect that the US will get hit by a MAJOR Hurricane this year. I found this interesting from Doc's blog an I believe someone else on here mentioned this as well.

"The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S."

Jeff Masters


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
2334. bappit
11:59 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Radar image at dawn showing three purple martin roosts and a radar spike from the sun appearing over the horizon. One roost is near Beaumont, another in north Houston and a less distinct one in southwest Houston. The roost at Beaumont is a bit more dispersed than the Houston ones. Those birds don't wait around!

Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
2333. weathermanwannabe
11:55 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Here is the am discussion from the NCEP Caribbean desk; all clear as well:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
746 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NOTICE...THE INTERNATIONAL DESKS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INTERRUPTION OF SERVICES AUGUST 17-24 AS WE RELOCATE TO A NEW FACILITY. PRODUCTS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE DURING THIS PERIOD. PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON AUGUST 27.

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. RIDGE PATTERN AND WELL ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOMINATE THE ISLANDS LIMITING ANY CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHALLOW MARINE SHOWERS.MODEL ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE AT MID- AND LOWER LEVELS RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO AT 27-29N. THIS SUSTAINED A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 850-875 HPA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRODUCING BRISK EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES BETWEEN 925 HPA AND 700 HPA...WHICH WAS ALLOWING FOR FAST MOVING CELLS AND BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS. PWAT VALUES WERE LOW...IN THE 30-35MM RANGE.

MODELS SHOWING PATTERN GRADUALLY EVOLVING AS MID-UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL PLACE A DENT IN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BY 42-48 HRS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN. ALSO...ARRIVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL LEAD TO A TRANSIENT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 40-45MM DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW AXIS CROSSING THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE WETTEST SOLUTION IS THAT OF THE WRF-NMM...WHICH SHOWS MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-35MM/DAY. THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS WELL BELOW 1 INCH AS THEY AGREE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE POOL WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH. WE
ARE GOING WITH THE DRIER TREND...YET EXPECTING LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-25MM/DAY MOSTLY IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING TUESDAY.IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)


Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
2332. PensacolaDoug
11:53 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting Tribucanes:
See ya'll later today. What a good blog day, virtually no arguments or nastiness. Have a great one all.



Well sure. As long no one has a differing opinion, it's kumbaya.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
2331. BahaHurican
11:52 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Probably 80kts or so right now... Latest JTWC update has 65kts.
I didn't expect Vicente to get that strong before landfall... RI?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
2330. GeoffreyWPB
11:51 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11153
2329. BahaHurican
11:51 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
So, outside the sun is shining brightly, and it's also raining...

lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
2328. StormTracker2K
11:49 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
SOI back into the negative

Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day avg SOI 90 day avg SOI

24 Jun 2012 1011.98 1016.55 -41.19 -9.59 -5.34
25 Jun 2012 1010.72 1016.45 -49.35 -10.31 -5.85
26 Jun 2012 1010.31 1015.70 -46.96 -10.82 -6.29
27 Jun 2012 1010.79 1014.40 -34.44 -11.30 -6.59
28 Jun 2012 1011.50 1013.05 -19.96 -11.62 -6.68
29 Jun 2012 1012.75 1011.90 -3.09 -10.99 -6.45
30 Jun 2012 1014.69 1011.25 15.11 -10.20 -5.99
1 Jul 2012 1014.14 1012.30 5.48 -10.34 -5.77
2 Jul 2012 1012.39 1013.55 -12.99 -11.27 -5.64
3 Jul 2012 1011.71 1013.15 -14.71 -12.32 -5.43
4 Jul 2012 1013.71 1012.50 1.60 -12.40 -5.06
5 Jul 2012 1013.38 1012.95 -3.20 -12.14 -4.75
6 Jul 2012 1012.00 1013.05 -12.31 -12.09 -4.56
7 Jul 2012 1011.64 1011.75 -6.53 -12.01 -4.33
8 Jul 2012 1012.36 1010.35 6.52 -11.55 -4.07
9 Jul 2012 1012.47 1010.70 5.05 -10.92 -3.92
10 Jul 2012 1012.80 1010.80 6.46 -10.17 -3.76
11 Jul 2012 1014.09 1011.15 12.25 -9.06 -3.60
12 Jul 2012 1015.36 1011.45 18.22 -7.77 -3.48
13 Jul 2012 1014.97 1011.45 15.82 -7.16 -3.43
14 Jul 2012 1013.65 1011.25 8.92 -7.08 -3.39
15 Jul 2012 1015.43 1011.15 20.50 -6.65 -3.23
16 Jul 2012 1014.53 1012.20 8.49 -6.65 -3.18
17 Jul 2012 1015.39 1012.60 11.33 -5.98 -3.21
18 Jul 2012 1014.54 1013.10 3.02 -5.38 -3.39
19 Jul 2012 1015.05 1012.85 7.69 -4.47 -3.63
20 Jul 2012 1016.18 1014.35 5.42 -3.92 -3.85
21 Jul 2012 1016.61 1015.20 2.83 -3.37 -3.89
22 Jul 2012 1014.80 1014.20 -2.16 -3.36 -3.98
23 Jul 2012 1013.20 1012.95 -4.31 -3.22 -4.08
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
2327. Tropicsweatherpr
11:40 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Good morning. Up to 90%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM AT ANY TIME DURING NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14256
2326. weathermanwannabe
11:37 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Good Morning All. All clear again on the Florida and Atlantic side. Back to July climatology with an 80% chance of another storm in the E-Pac. Gonna lurk until Dr. M posts a new entry. Have I missed anything?..... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
2325. MAweatherboy1
11:20 AM GMT on July 23, 2012

Probably 80kts or so right now... Latest JTWC update has 65kts.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7781
2324. LargoFl
11:20 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
2323. LargoFl
11:19 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting flslp:
Lived in MI, MN, AK NC and drove in the snow. Had to move to Florida to hit my first deer!
..LOL..down here we drive carefully LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
2322. LargoFl
11:18 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning Largo, and everybody else out there.

So far this morning it's dry... and looking at the imagery it seems the TUTT has moved towards the northwest and is now over the Everglades.

Well, it was fun while it lasted...

..good morning and yes, no tropical storm out of this blob, but still some severe thunderstorms today later on with the sea breeze and day time heating, after today..back to normal for us
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
2321. MAweatherboy1
11:15 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Good morning... I think you could say TY Vicente underwent RI last night.

Link
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7781
2320. BahaHurican
10:34 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Morning Largo, and everybody else out there.

So far this morning it's dry... and looking at the imagery it seems the TUTT has moved towards the northwest and is now over the Everglades.

Well, it was fun while it lasted...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
2319. flslp
10:34 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Lived in MI, MN, AK NC and drove in the snow. Had to move to Florida to hit my first deer!
Member Since: May 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
2318. LargoFl
9:29 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
2317. LargoFl
9:26 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241000 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
417 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
2316. HurricaneHunterJoe
8:35 AM GMT on July 23, 2012


One last pic of Tropical Cyclone Vicente nearing the Chinese Coast.At this time models take it near Hong Kong and Macau.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
2315. HurricaneHunterJoe
8:23 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Well;;;;;Goodnight to all! From America's Left Coast.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
2314. HurricaneHunterJoe
7:58 AM GMT on July 23, 2012


Vicente SE of Hong Kong. Hong Kong is located at 22.4N AND 114.0E,With a population of over 7,000,000.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
2313. HurricaneHunterJoe
7:48 AM GMT on July 23, 2012


Tropical Cyclone Vicente just offshore from Hong Kong.Sustained winds are 75mph,Gusting to 90mph,974mb
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
2312. HurricaneHunterJoe
7:20 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
How's the Night Crew this morning?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
2311. HurricaneHunterJoe
7:17 AM GMT on July 23, 2012


If this forecast becomes reality,it would have a 50-60kt storm directly into Hong Kong!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
2310. wxchaser97
6:14 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting Tribucanes:
See ya'll later today. What a good blog day, virtually no arguments or nastiness. Have a great one all.
Night Tribucanes, today was a great day on the blog and for me. I got $140 for my b-day at my family party. This is the latest thunderstorm outlook for today(july 23rd)
Im under a 2% tornado threat and a 15% wind & hail threat.Link
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
2309. Tribucanes
6:09 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
See ya'll later today. What a good blog day, virtually no arguments or nastiness. Have a great one all.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
2308. wxchaser97
6:05 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting Tribucanes:
You can't keep a good blob down, it'll be back later today.
Nope, but for now it has waned.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
2303. wxchaser97 5:50 AM GMT on July 23, 2012

You'll get your storm sooner or later. Seems the NOAA is fairly optimistic that we'll get a formidable strike this year. Just FYI the B/A high should be weakening next week, look for possible development.

A quote from Dr. Masters post above.

"The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S."

Jeff Masters

I know, just need that map to say improvement for MI, not development like it says. I dont want a strike on the US but just something to track.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
2307. wxchaser97
6:02 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Supposed to be a hot and stormy day with a slight chance of severe wx. Monday A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Stay safe tomorrow NC if storms build and anyone else affected by bad wx. Goodnight all.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
2306. ProgressivePulse
6:01 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
2303. wxchaser97 5:50 AM GMT on July 23, 2012

You'll get your storm sooner or later. Seems the NOAA is fairly optimistic that we'll get a formidable strike this year. Just FYI the B/A high should be weakening this week, look for possible development.

A quote from Dr. Masters post above.

"The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S."

Jeff Masters
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5401
2305. Tribucanes
6:01 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
You can't keep a good blob down, it'll be back later today.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
2304. wxchaser97
5:57 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting JLPR2:


Dust moves so I guess the dust in the CAtl goes away and this wave might enjoy and spread the SALless hole in the EAtl. I guess that eventually the SAL or dry air will get it.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
2303. wxchaser97
5:50 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Nooooo:( 000
ABNT20 KNHC 230530
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
2302. sunlinepr
5:43 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Beijing swamped with heaviest rainfall in 60 years- 37 dead, 50,000 forced evacuations
Posted on July 23, 2012

Link

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
2301. sunlinepr
5:41 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Mudslides in Austria leave 1 dead and isolates dozens of villages
Posted on July 23, 2012
July 23, 2012 – AUSTRIA - Heavy rains hit the province of Styria, in central Austria, causing floods, landslides and mudslides. One person has been killed in Austria after torrential rains triggered mudslides and flooding across several provinces. Whole provinces were inundated with rivers of mud. 360 people living in an alpine region were forced to evacuate their homes after a torrent of mud swept through. The rain has destroyed houses, cut off villages and damaged roads. More rain is forecast over the coming days. –Sky News

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
2300. JLPR2
5:39 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:
TW maintains its shape through mid Atl....



I ran that and it looks good enough to possibly be 98L, but it falls apart. Eh, I would be happy with a pretty looking invest.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
2299. NCHurricane2009
5:39 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
And its gone at least it give us something to talk...for today.

ABNT20 KNHC 230530
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Yep...it looks like complete junk on satellite imagery. CIMSS still shows upper divergence of +5 over the disturbance...associated with the warm core upper ridge it pumped over itself today. Admittedly though...these divergence numbers are much less impressive (they peaked at +40 at one point). Don't know what's killed this disturbance yet. My initial guess is upper convergence that is developing on the east side of the Gulf of Mexico inverted upper trough mentioned in paragraph P7 of my newest update...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 475 Comments: 3668
2298. wxchaser97
5:37 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Hey...I drive on 696 and 275 every commute! Not so much on woodward or 75...those areas are east of me....

Yep...the problem is usually the other drivers...so on snowdays I try to leave earlier before the rush hour peaks...
On snowdays I dont have to go to schoo:) But on a serious note if you beat the rush you should be fine. Our street is a dead end boulivard street so it gets plowed LAST which sucks. My families house is juuuust off woodward and during winter every now and then we can hear a crash. We can also hear the woodward dream cruise which is in a few weeks.
The FL system has deffinatly lost convection over the past hours. Can it rebuild it we will see in the next day or so.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
2297. sunlinepr
5:35 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Do you literally mean in the next 24 hours? How do you know?


No, it may hold as a TW but no conditions for development yet...

The only thing that calls my attention is that GFS is starting to show TWaves or lows moving across the Atl..... thats the beginning of the set up for the CV season that climbs up until mid Sept....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
2296. JLPR2
5:34 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Why? The dust is still there...


Dust moves so I guess the dust in the CAtl goes away and this wave might enjoy and spread the SALless hole in the EAtl. I guess that eventually the SAL or dry air will get it.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
2295. allancalderini
5:34 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
And its gone at least it give us something to talk...for today.

ABNT20 KNHC 230530
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4317
2294. NCHurricane2009
5:30 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:


It will be gone by tomorow....

Just keeping an eye on tropical blobs....


Do you literally mean in the next 24 hours? How do you know?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 475 Comments: 3668
2293. NCHurricane2009
5:28 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:
TW maintains its shape through mid Atl....


Why? The dust is still there...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 475 Comments: 3668
2292. sunlinepr
5:27 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


You know the song from Queen...

And another one's down...
And another one's down...
And another one's down...
Another one bites the dust!

Sorry...not too enthused about t-waves from Africa just yet. SAL dust is still dominating...


It will be gone by tomorow....

Just keeping an eye on tropical blobs....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
2291. NCHurricane2009
5:26 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
Your welcome, its when theres a big snowstorm and the crazy drivers still go fast on roads like 696, 75, woodward, or the mile roads and then cause wrecks that then just snowball. Its usually the people who are not used to snow driving who cuase the wrecks but in winter the most exoperiance driver can make a mistake. Also blck ice gets drivers up here and you cant see that.
Blog on 90e and FL system

Hey...I drive on 696 and 275 every commute! Not so much on woodward or 75...those areas are east of me....

Yep...the problem is usually the other drivers...so on snowdays I try to leave earlier before the rush hour peaks...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 475 Comments: 3668
2290. sunlinepr
5:25 AM GMT on July 23, 2012
TW maintains its shape through mid Atl....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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