Historic 2012 U.S. drought continues to expand and intensify

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on July 20, 2012

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The great U.S. drought of 2012 continues to accelerate, and grew larger and more intense over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, July 19. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought expanded from 61% to 64%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought jumped from 37% to 42%. These are truly historic levels of drought, exceeded only during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s and a severe drought in the mid-1950s. If we make the reasonable assumption that the current area covered by drought is representative of what the average for the entire month of July will be (based on the latest drought forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), the July 2012 drought is second only to the great Dust Bowl drought of July 1934 in terms of the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought. The five months with the greatest percent area in moderate or greater drought, since 1895, now look like this:

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Jul 2012, 64%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%

If we consider the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought, July 2012 ranks in 5th place:

1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 43%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 42%


Figure 1. The twice-monthly U.S. Drought Outlook, updated on Thursday, July 19, predicts that drought will continue through October over most of the U.S., and expand to the north and northeast. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The drought forecast: not encouraging
In their twice-monthly drought outlook, released on Thursday, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center had this to say about the drought: The combination of heat and dryness has severely reduced the quality and quantity of the corn and soybean crop, with 38 percent of the corn and 30 percent of the soybeans rated as poor or very poor as of July 15 by NASS/USDA. Some states, such as Kentucky, Missouri, and Indiana, had over 70 percent of their corn adversely rated. Unfortunately, drought is expected to develop, persist, or intensify across these areas, and temperatures are likely to average above normal. Some widely-scattered relief may come in the form of cold front passages or organized thunderstorm clusters (MCSs), but widespread relief for much of the area is not expected. Unfortunately, the self-perpetuation of regional drought conditions, with very dry soils and very limited evapotranspiration, tends to inhibit widespread development of or weaken existing thunderstorm complexes. It would require a dramatic shift in the weather pattern to provide significant relief to this drought, and most tools and models do not forecast this. Unfortunately, all indicators (short and medium-term, August, and August-October) favor above normal temperatures. With much of the Plains already in drought, above normal temperatures expected into the fall, and a dry short-term and 30-day forecast, the drought should persist, with some possible development in the northern Plains.

One bright spot: drought conditions are expected to improve over the Southwest U.S. over the next few weeks, as the annual summer monsoon peaks and brings heavy rains. The Southeast U.S. has seen some improvement over the past week, due to an upper-level low pressure system that has brought heavy rains. The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S.


Figure 2. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts. The drought of 2012 could well make it three out of four. "It might be a $50 billion event for the economy as it blends into everything over the next four quarters," said Michael Swanson, agricultural economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, the largest commercial agriculture lender. Only three $50 billion weather disasters have hit the U.S. since 1980.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. The models are showing formation of an extratropical cyclone along an old frontal boundary over 1,000 miles off the Northeast U.S. coast on Tuesday, and it is possible such a storm could acquire tropical characteristics and get a name. Such a storm would not be a threat to any land areas. There is an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean that is squashing development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa, so it doesn't look too likely that the U.S. will get something it really needs--a big, wet Category 1 hurricane that sloshes ashore over the Gulf Coast, stalling over the Midwest, bringing copious drought-busting rains.


Figure 3. Portlight volunteers unloading supplies at the FBC in Henryville, Indiana on March 10, 2012. Henryville was devastated by an EF-4 tornado on March 2 that killed 11 people along its path.

Helping out with disaster relief
It's been another busy year for natural disasters in the U.S., and the portlight.org disaster-relief charity, founded by members of the wunderground community, has been very active helping out victims of this year's disasters. Portlight responded to the deadly March tornado outbreak in the Midwest, two separate April tornado outbreaks in Texas and Oklahoma, and the June wildfires in Colorado. Paul Timmons of Portlight has put together a year-to-date summary of portlight's efforts in 2012, and has this call for action:

Now we’re in July…things have gotten quiet, but we know they won’t be quiet for long. We’re in the middle of hurricane season and mid-summer is a time of unsettled and dangerous weather that happens when we least expect it. Our work is never really done and new tasks pop up all the time. With your help and the help of our friends like the amazing people at Wunderground.com and our new friends at Team Rubicon, The Mahalia Partnership, and CCDC, we will be ready.

Where do we go from here? That depends on you, our supporters, volunteers and friends. Our purpose hasn’t changed: we will continue providing support, relief and aid for unserved, under-served and forgotten people wherever they may be…


Peace to all this weekend, and I'll be back on Sunday or Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Thank goodness you posted this.
I was thinking of Sal, the collection agent for my turf accountant.
.

No no!
That's another part of the Doom !
But it only affects some people.

:):))
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.







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............................winds picking up on the east coast
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
Another thing...
When SAL is overhead, it creates a "greenhouse" effect below, that raises temps.
Very noticeable here at 11n 61w.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC015-071-212115-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0041.120721T2031Z-120721T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
431 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

* AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPE CORAL...AND MOVING
WEST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BURNT
STORE MARINA...BOKEELIA...BOCA GRANDE AND PLACIDA.

LAT...LON 2656 8213 2661 8215 2665 8220 2664 8222
2658 8220 2658 8223 2667 8227 2686 8230
2680 8214 2676 8217 2675 8224 2669 8223
2672 8215 2668 8210 2677 8207 2670 8189
2652 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 109DEG 13KT 2665 8204

$$



I'm expecting these stronger thunderstorm to surge northwest and potentially spread into the Tampa Bay area this evening. Due to significant heating all day long expect possible strong to severe thunderstorms around the Tampa Bay area later today into tonight.
..the sun sure was strong today, whatever storms form here might be strong I agree,daytime heating is bad today,heat index up over 100
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
Quoting pottery:

SAL is (in this context) Sahara Dust.
Thank goodness you posted this.
I was thinking of Sal, the collection agent for my turf accountant.
.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC015-071-212115-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0041.120721T2031Z-120721T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
431 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

* AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPE CORAL...AND MOVING
WEST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BURNT
STORE MARINA...BOKEELIA...BOCA GRANDE AND PLACIDA.

LAT...LON 2656 8213 2661 8215 2665 8220 2664 8222
2658 8220 2658 8223 2667 8227 2686 8230
2680 8214 2676 8217 2675 8224 2669 8223
2672 8215 2668 8210 2677 8207 2670 8189
2652 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 109DEG 13KT 2665 8204

$$



I'm expecting these stronger thunderstorm to surge northwest and potentially spread into the Tampa Bay area this evening. Due to significant heating all day long expect possible strong to severe thunderstorms around the Tampa Bay area later today into tonight as a tropical wave begins to move into the area with added convergence and instability and PWATS between 2 and 2.5 inches.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

All it says in that link is the SAL forms in late Spring...and lasts thru Summer and early Fall. I imagine that since we get hurricanes in Summer and early Fall...it has to diminish in intensity by then.

The article doesn't say what turns it on...what turns it off...when its strongest...when its weakest...etc.

SAL is (in this context) Sahara Dust.
It is created when surface winds create dust-storms in the Sahara and Sub-Sahara (Sahel region).

Because the air there is hot and dry, the dust is lifted into regions 5000 to 20,000 feet altitude.
Prevailing winds blow this dust cloud over the Trop. Atl, a LONG way.

The effects on Trop. Storms is not fully researched, but accepting that dust will not float around in a wet atmosphere, it is assumed that the air is very dry and will sap Trop. Storms of the moisture they need to survive.
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Quoting Patrap:
A excellent read on SAL

Subject: A17) What is the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) ? How does it affect tropical cyclones ?
Contributed by Jason Dunion

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a mass of very dry, dusty air which forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall and usually moves out over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean every 3-5 days.


Good afternoon everyone. Never realized so many features could influence the formation (or none-formation) of a hurricane until I started reading the comments on this blog.Thanks

Got some brief showers today in Little LA (i.e. Little Antigua)from a weak tropical wave. Still watching the tropics. Mother nature knows just what she's doing. For all you doubters hope you're ready for her when she's ready to show her power.
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Quoting stormchaser19:

the models have the X factor of the SAL in his logic oparation or only they can read the dry air?
?


I dont have a answer for that, try Dr. Masters or someone who might. Levi,Gro,Taz,etc.
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Maybe check the enroute Sea Condition for this un.

Navy task force preparing mass evacuations of Britons from Syria, Jordan, Lebanon
It will include helicopter carrier HMS Illustrious and amphibious ship HMS Bulwark

Daily Telegraph

Published: 14:32 July 21, 2012


London: Britain’s Royal Navy is preparing contingency plans for a mass evacuation of British citizens from Syria and neighbouring countries. A substantial Navy task force will deploy to the eastern Mediterranean for large scale exercises after the Olympics but will have the capability to help civilians fleeing the growing violence.
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Quoting Patrap:
A excellent read on SAL

Subject: A17) What is the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) ? How does it affect tropical cyclones ?
Contributed by Jason Dunion

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a mass of very dry, dusty air which forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall and usually moves out over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean every 3-5 days.

the models have the X factor of the SAL in his logic oparation or only they can read the dry air?
?
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
A excellent read on SAL

Subject: A17) What is the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) ? How does it affect tropical cyclones ?
Contributed by Jason Dunion

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a mass of very dry, dusty air which forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall and usually moves out over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean every 3-5 days.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

All it says in that link is the SAL forms in late Spring...and lasts thru Summer and early Fall. I imagine that since we get hurricanes in Summer and early Fall...it has to diminish in intensity by then.

The article doesn't say what turns it on...what turns it off...when its strongest...when its weakest...etc.



I'll get on it right away!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
From the NWS here in Charleston about the SAL (mid-afternoon disco)

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS TRAVERSED THE
ATLANTIC..STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE BAHAMAS TO ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH. THIS SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ROUGHLY FOLLOW
THE FLOW THROUGH THE 5 TO 20 KFT LAYER. IT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING
WEST AND NORTHWEST ONLY AROUND 12 MPH...SO IT WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. IF IT CONTINUES TO MOVE AT THIS CURRENT
SPEED...IT COULD REACH THE COASTLINE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.



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Quoting 954FtLCane:


wait thats off topic. Be careful and erase it before you get permabanned. :-)



if any one gets a permabanned it sould be WxGeekVA hes the one that all ways like posting them off topic photos even no he bee told 100s of times not too do it on the main blog


i guss he will find out one day when he longs in too his acc and find out he cant post on the main blog


so if i where you i would stop why you are a head
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It's strongest in Late June and July and usually dies down in mid-late August.


Cool...but I wanna know why its strongest in Late June and July...and why it dies down in August...
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LARGER image

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.......................I wonder if that tropical wave is starting to come to Florida already
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
Just rub some dirt in it Patrap, it'll be fine. :)
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

All it says in that link is the SAL forms in late Spring...and lasts thru Summer and early Fall. I imagine that since we get hurricanes in Summer and early Fall...it has to diminish in intensity by then.

The article doesn't say what turns it on...what turns it off...when its strongest...when its weakest...etc.
It's strongest in Late June and July and usually dies down in mid-late August.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16969
Quoting Grothar:


I would be surprised if we didn't!. Here is a link for you. Now no arguments about SAL. I've actually seen it. It is there, it is real.

Link

All it says in that link is the SAL forms in late Spring...and lasts thru Summer and early Fall. I imagine that since we get hurricanes in Summer and early Fall...it has to diminish in intensity by then.

The article doesn't say what turns it on...what turns it off...when its strongest...when its weakest...etc.
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20060920H1 Aircraft 42RF
SALEX Helene flight 2006


Mission Plan :

This was a two-plane (1 P-3, G-IV) SALEX mission into Hurricane Helene, which was a Category 2 hurricane at takeoff. The plan for the P-3 called for setting up the IP about 200 nm southwest of the storm. Fly a southwest-northeast leg to the center, then an outbound leg to the north, then downwind to a point northwest of the center.
Then fly an inbound leg southeast to the center and outbound to a point southeast of the center, completing the pattern. The P-3 aircraft would fly at 16,000 ft or higher, dropping sondes at all turn points, midpoints of legs, and two center passes.
A drop may also be made in the eyewall, and in any areas of dry air along the legs. Four AXBT's would also be dropped on the north and west side of the storm.



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>
Quoting Patrap:
Owww,

I tink I may have detached a retina..


Must of been on his vacation in Key West.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
Quoting 954FtLCane:


wait thats off topic. Be careful and erase it before you get permabanned. :-)




i wont get a permabanned. but i did re move it
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Striking similarities with this year and 2006. Strong outbreaks of African Dust and going from weak La Nina in the winter to weak El Nino in the summer.

1956-1957 Weak La Nina
1957-1958 Moderate El Nino

1962-1963 Weak La Nina
1963-1964 Moderate El Nino

1967-1968 Weak La Nina
1968-1969 Moderate El Nino

So these years can be used as analogs for this season. There is some other years where we transition from Weak La Nina and stayed Neutral, but it was a warm neutral so those years can be used too.

According to charts on this page, I see no Weak La Nina to Weak El Nino transition Link





thats be come we dont have EL nino has of yet i sure when we they say we have EL nino i sure they will add it on there
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Quoting Tazmanian:
whats have some fun




wait thats off topic. Be careful and erase it before you get permabanned. :-)
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Someone should correct me if I am wrong about the AEJ in post 941...that's what I understand about the AEJ after reading about it in meteo papers (after I left college) with my meteorology minor...I have an engineering major...

I don't know if the AEJ has anything to do with SAL...and I still don't know what turns on and off the SAL. All I can see is that the SAL gets pushed SW into the Atlantic tropics by the subtropical ridge...but the subtropical ridge is always there even in the hurricane season peak...so I don't think that's what turns it on and off. So what turns SAL on and off....anyone?
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Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Analysis

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
..sure as the dust, lufts high in June, when moving thru Kashmir...






Dust layer associated with the Saharan Air Layer. Photo taken from the NOAA G-IV northeast of Barbados during SALEX mission 20060916n. Cumulus clouds can be seen poking through the tops of the dust layer, which is seen as a milky white haze. Photo credit: Jason Dunion NOAA/HRD.


G-IV flight crew in Barbados after the 26 August 2006 Tropical Storm Debby SALEX mission. From left to right are: Chuck Rasco, Mission Flight Director, Jeff Hawkins, Jeff Smith, Sim Aberson, Michele Finn, Dale Carpenter, John Longenecker, Jason Dunion, and Gordon Kitson. Photo credit: Jack Parrish NOAA/AOC.
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Striking similarities with this year and 2006. Strong outbreaks of African Dust and going from weak La Nina in the winter to weak El Nino in the summer.

1956-1957 Weak La Nina
1957-1958 Moderate El Nino

1962-1963 Weak La Nina
1963-1964 Moderate El Nino

1967-1968 Weak La Nina
1968-1969 Moderate El Nino

So these years can be used as analogs for this season. There is some other years where we transition from Weak La Nina and stayed Neutral, but it was a warm neutral so those years can be used too.

According to charts on this page, I see no Weak La Nina to Weak El Nino transition Link


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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
Owww,

I tink I may have detached a retina..
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

To answer that...I wish I knew how to predict when the dry SAL (Saharan Air Layer) diminishes. It seems the flow on the south side of the deep-layered subtropical ridge pushes the dry air from Sahara...southwestward into the Atlantic tropics. But what I don't get is that a deep-layered subtropical ridge is also present when hurricane season gets active...so something else is what turns on and off the SAL...right?

Do we have an SAL expert on here?


I would be surprised if we didn't!. Here is a link for you. Now no arguments about SAL. I've actually seen it. It is there, it is real.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Taz is no troll, actually. He might looks like one, but trust me, he's here for the love of weather.




thats right the love of the weather
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Eastern Atlantic

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Quoting mcluvincane:


Taz is no troll, actually. He might looks like one, but trust me, he's here for the love of weather.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

FLZ035-036-212030-
ALACHUA-GILCHRIST-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME WESTERN
ALACHUA AND GILCHRIST COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 347 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES WEST OF TRENTON...MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND TRENTON
AND BELL THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2979 8294 2980 8266 2956 8264 2955 8276
2958 8278 2958 8296 2959 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 175DEG 11KT 2961 8287

$$

PETERSON
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
949. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Bulletin issued at 03:45 HKT 22/Jul/2012

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.

This means that a tropical cyclone now centered within about 800 kilometers of Hong Kong, China.

At 4 a.m. HKT, Tropical Storm Vicente was estimated to be about 380 kilometers southeast of Hong Kong and is forecast to move west-northwest crossing the northern part of the South China Sea.
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Quoting VR46L:


TA 13 I understand where you are coming from but not all comments that are removed are off topic ,a sad fact of life .







I believe that people on here who do not wish to discuss Climate Change or dont beleive AGW are treated very badly and are often ganged up on and have their posts all to often removed due to violation of community standards ... I was asked a question last week on here and I answered it ...and my answer was removed because I believe it questioned and challenged the AGW camp.

In this post 808 I feel what happened last september was to stop people who questioned AGW and give free reign to AGW only . To me it was a form of coercion of free speech .I did not call anyone an actual nazi what I did was likened the end of free speech and allowing only one side to voice their opinion similar to the work of Gobbells.

Neapolitian
Oh and btw I didn't need an explanation of Goodwining I knew what it was but your attitude is clear.
And by the way as far as I am concerned everyone on this forum should be on an equal footing but certain bloggers seem to have more respect or control than others...thus the "respected" bloggers.and the other two issues arise all the time but anyway my actual post was in regard to the extermination of blogging rights to intelligent witty bloggers that you had appeared to be reveling in today.


So what you are saying is that there is a conspiracy against you and other anti-GW posters by members of the blog or the blog itself to promote a false pro-GW agenda and likening it to Nazi propagandists? That's pretty unlikely, and still dangerous.

It's a shame you feel like you and others are being targeted, but from what I have seen, those who post and back up their posts with real data, evidence, and articles that pass the academic standards for peer review do not get any posts removed. Those who don't get removed in a relatively quick fashion. I can't speak directly to your issue, but I have seen plenty of healthy discourse and discussion. Unfortunately from your viewpoint and others GW is not an issue you want to discuss or see being discussed, but the reality is, Dr. Masters posts a blog that features GW as a topic pretty often as it directly relates to weather.
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whats have some fun
.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Patrap answered this very well in this comment:



Good tutorial, Pat!



Taz is not a troll... Next question.
Depends on what your definition of a troll is..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16969
Quoting mcluvincane:




i think you are a troll
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.................................whew..south Florida is getting the action now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38424
943. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (1208)
3:00 AM JST July 22 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Vicente (992 hPa) located at 19.5N 116.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 20.1N 113.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
48 HRS: 20.6N 110.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
72 HRS: 20.9N 107.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Gulf of Tonkin
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Well, a lightning just struck the road about 1/4 mile behind me while I was driving around the town. Pretty strong storm today in Garner/Clayton area.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Isn't there something called the African Easterly Jet (AEJ)? Maybe that has to relax some for we to get development.

In the mid-latitudes...we have an upper-level westerly jet stream with troughs and ridges (which separates warm air to the south from cold air to the north) Divergence east of an upper trough supports a surface non-tropical cyclone...much like that strong storm you can see right now southeast of Greenland.

The AEJ is something unique due to Africa's shape. We have hotter air to the north (over Africa's desert) and cooler air to the south over sub-Saharan Africa and the Gulf of Guinea. And because hotter air is to the north (rather than to the south)...the AEJ flows from east to west (rather than west to east like the mid-lat jet stream). And unlike the jet stream...I believe the AEJ is mid-level more than upper-level...but the AEJ also has troughs and ridges. Divergence west of an AEJ trough supports a surface tropical wave...so I think it needs to be stronger rather than weaker to support a good hurricane season with tropical waves. I think the AEJ is unique to summer because the African monsoon rains make sub-sahara Africa wet by then...so the sub-sahara to desert air temp contrasts drive the formation of the AEJ for only the summer.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

If you dont mind me asking. How do you post a pic and make it loopable once clicked on. Is it a link within the image?
Thanks in advance.


Patrap answered this very well in this comment:

Quoting Patrap:
Is it a link within the image?


Its just the reverse.

For example


to embed a Image into a link, paste the link in the comments box using the link prompt, and where it says LINK in the html, add your images there, after first taking that image html and running in thru the comment "Image" prompt, then paste that code into the LINK.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg







http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.h tml

Link

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop




Good tutorial, Pat!

Quoting mcluvincane:


Taz is not a troll... Next question.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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