Record warmth at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:25 PM GMT on July 18, 2012

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The coldest place in Greenland, and often the entire Northern Hemisphere, is commonly the Summit Station. Located at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level, and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle, Summit rarely sees temperatures that rise above the freezing mark. In the 12-year span 2000 - 2011, Summit temperatures rose above freezing only four times, according to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera. But remarkably, over the past week, temperatures at Summit have eclipsed the freezing mark on five days, including four days in a row from July 11 - 14. There are actually three weather stations located at the location--Summit, Summit-US, and Summit AWS. The highest reliable temperature measured at any of the three stations is now the 3.6°C (38.5°F) measured on Monday, July 16, 2012 at Summit-US. A 4.4°C reading at Summit in May, 2010 is bogus, as can be seen by looking at the adjacent station. Similarly, a 3.3°C reading from June 2004 is also bad. Records at Summit began in 1987.


Video 1. A 20-ton tractor attempting to repair a bridge washed out by the raging Watson River on July 11, 2012 in Kangerlussauaq, Greenland gets washed downstream. The driver escaped unharmed. Image taken from an article, Warm air over the ice sheet provides great drama in Greenland, at the Danish Meteorological Institute's web site.

Record heat leads to major flooding in Greenland
The record heat has triggered significant melting of Greenland's Ice Sheet. According to the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, on July 11, glacier melt water from the Russell Glacier flooded the Watson River, smashing two bridges connecting the north and south of Kangerlussuaq (Sønder Strømfjord), a small settlement in southwestern Greenland. The flow rate of 3.5 million liters/sec was almost double the previous record flow rate. The latest forecast for Summit calls for cooler conditions over the coming week, with no more above-freezing temperatures at Summit.

Another huge iceberg calves off of Greenland's Petermann Glacier
A massive ice island two times the size of Manhattan and half as thick as the Empire State Building calved off of Greenland's Petermann Glacier on Monday, July 16, 2012. According to Andreas Muenchow, associate professor of physical ocean science and engineering at the University of Delaware's College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment in his Icy Seas blog, the break-off point has been visible for at least 8 years in satellite imagery, and has been propagating at 1 km/year towards Nares Strait. The same glacier calved an iceberg twice as big back on August 4, 2010--the largest iceberg observed in the Arctic since 1962. The freshwater stored in that ice island could have kept the Delaware or Hudson rivers flowing for more than two years, or kept all U.S. public tap water flowing for 120 days. “While the size is not as spectacular as it was in 2010, the fact that it follows so closely to the 2010 event brings the glacier’s terminus to a location where it has not been for at least 150 years,” Muenchow said in a university press release. “Northwest Greenland and northeast Canada are warming more than five times faster than the rest of the world, but the observed warming is not proof that the diminishing ice shelf is caused by this, because air temperatures have little effect on this glacier; ocean temperatures do, and our ocean temperature time series are only five to eight years long — too short to establish a robust warming signal.”


Figure 1. The calving of a massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 14 - 18, 2012, as seen using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Look familiar? Two years ago, a 100 square-mile ice island broke off the Petermann Glacier. It was the largest iceberg in the Arctic since 1962. Image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on August 21, 2010. Image credit: NASA. I've constructed a 7-frame satellite animation available here that shows the calving and break-up of the Petermann Glacier ice island. The animation begins on August 5, 2010, and ends on September 21, with images spaced about 8 days apart. The images were taken by NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites.

Related posts

Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt

Greenland update for 2010: record melting and a massive calving event

Jeff Masters

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Great lightning show, up close to Howard U..... gusty winds and sheets of rain..... It smells like salt!!
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1229. pottery
Quoting nigel20:

The Drought will have a major impact on global food prices...good evening everyone!


Reality sucks, ent ?
Welcome to The Warming.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24883
1228. Patrap

Tropical Waves Exiting the African Coast

During the "Cape Verde" season from August through mid October, this is where storms threatening SXM usually come from. Waves move east to west just north of the "Intertropical Convergence Zone" (ITCZ). Focus on storms between 10 and 20 degrees north.... Starting in late July, "shearing" winds over the tropical Atlantic begin to diminish, heralding the beginning of the Cape Verde season. Its peak is September. Satellite photos update constantly.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129848
1227. pottery
Quoting Gearsts:
According to Levi they are not fully tropical when over land.

OK, but I still don't know the reason for the fizzle over the ocean that so many of these potent looking things do.

Guess I'll have to dig some more, and try to find a reason.

Any links on this would be appreciated.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24883
1226. nigel20
Quoting Neapolitan:
The "Nation's Breadbasket" looks like, er, toast:

Click for larger image:

drought


...or a breadbasket case, if you will...

The Drought will have a major impact on global food prices...good evening everyone!
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1225. Patrap
GFS Global View Description

The global perspective of this model is useful in watching tropical waves exiting the African coast and moving into the Atlantic during the Hurricane season.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129848
Quoting Patrap:
Ahh, a cuss and a GF update.

Were becoming FB and Twitter no doubt


I was talking about the power being off... Nothing to do with my GF besides that I was talking to her when it died
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
1223. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09
9:00 AM JST July 20 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.6N 124.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.7N 122.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bashi Channel


Additional Information
======================

Tropical depression will accelerate for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be T2.0 after 24 hours
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July,19 2012


July, 19 2011
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1221. Gearsts
Quoting pottery:

Had to read that a couple of times.....

But, OK.
You are saying that in some cases these are not "true" trop. waves, and therefore don't behave accordingly ?
According to Levi they are not fully tropical when over land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1220. Patrap
1218.


Ahh, a cuss and a GF update.

Were becoming FB and Twitter no doubt
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129848
Thunder getting louder..Bright flashes of constant lightning....

Op! I'm screwed...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17816
Aaand the powers out... Crap, I was skypeing my GF :(
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
1217. pottery
Quoting Gearsts:
Organized convection along the Near Equatorial Trough over North Africa during the Northern Hemisphere Summer results in perturbations forming. Meso-scale Convective Complexes (MCC) and Meso-scale Convective Systems (MCS) over this region are also responsible (if not the primary source) for the generation of tropical waves, also providing in the process cyclonic rotation to these waves.
Mid/Upper level disturbances occasionally manifest on the lower atmosphere. It is easy for meteorologists to confuse these perturbations with an easterly wave, as they will generally have the classic Inverted “V” signature on the satellite imagery. What differentiates the upper level perturbations from “true” tropical waves is the cold core nature, or beginnings, of these mid/upper perturbations. A perfect example is an upper level TUTT low, which is a cold core system. This is not to say that cold core systems can not evolve into a warm core system, but this is mostly a scale interaction issue (synoptic scale favorably interacting with the meso-scale).
It is highly debatable which level is best for tropical waves analysis and forecasting. A tropical wave that manifests to the 700 hPa height indicates a well organized perturbation, with potential for weather generation. However, one at 850 hPa, under favorable conditions, could gradually amplify to the middle atmosphere. Thus is best to analyze both surfaces.

Had to read that a couple of times.....

But, OK.
You are saying that in some cases these are not "true" trop. waves, and therefore don't behave accordingly ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24883
Quoting pottery:

Why is that ?
I have been trying to understand the mechanics of that.
Surely the waves are able to pick up more moisture over the sea than over the land?

So why do they fizzle over the ocean there ?

moisture overload, no convective heating, stable air.... just a guess
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I can believe that.

Me either not a surprise as this seems to be a sweet spot for storms to explode...

Ahhhh ^#&3 this storm..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17816
1214. pottery
Quoting Patrap:


Lack of Fresca?
hehehehehehehhh !
Maybe we can seed them with some Fresca, and see what happens next!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24883
Quoting pottery:

Why is that ?
I have been trying to understand the mechanics of that.
Surely the waves are able to pick up more moisture over the sea than over the land?

So why do they fizzle over the ocean there ?


Anyone knows why?....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sue Palka said the storms are intensifying!!


I can believe that.

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
1211. Gearsts
Quoting pottery:

Why is that ?
I have been trying to understand the mechanics of that.
Surely the waves are able to pick up more moisture over the sea than over the land?

So why do they fizzle over the ocean there ?
Organized convection along the Near Equatorial Trough over North Africa during the Northern Hemisphere Summer results in perturbations forming. Meso-scale Convective Complexes (MCC) and Meso-scale Convective Systems (MCS) over this region are also responsible (if not the primary source) for the generation of tropical waves, also providing in the process cyclonic rotation to these waves.
Mid/Upper level disturbances occasionally manifest on the lower atmosphere. It is easy for meteorologists to confuse these perturbations with an easterly wave, as they will generally have the classic Inverted “V” signature on the satellite imagery. What differentiates the upper level perturbations from “true” tropical waves is the cold core nature, or beginnings, of these mid/upper perturbations. A perfect example is an upper level TUTT low, which is a cold core system. This is not to say that cold core systems can not evolve into a warm core system, but this is mostly a scale interaction issue (synoptic scale favorably interacting with the meso-scale).
It is highly debatable which level is best for tropical waves analysis and forecasting. A tropical wave that manifests to the 700 hPa height indicates a well organized perturbation, with potential for weather generation. However, one at 850 hPa, under favorable conditions, could gradually amplify to the middle atmosphere. Thus is best to analyze both surfaces.
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Sue Palka said the storms are intensifying!!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17816
1209. Patrap
Quoting pottery:

Why is that ?
I have been trying to understand the mechanics of that.
Surely the waves are able to pick up more moisture over the sea than over the land?

So why do they fizzle over the ocean there ?


Lack of Fresca?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129848
1208. pottery
Quoting sunlinepr:
Up to now, tropical waves over African land look stronger than over the Atl.... Once they reach the water they start degrading....


Why is that ?
I have been trying to understand the mechanics of that.
Surely the waves are able to pick up more moisture over the sea than over the land?

So why do they fizzle over the ocean there ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24883
Quoting LargoFl:
Farming pushed natural drought into disaster--and could do so again.



Food prices expected to rise as U.S. suffers through worst drought in half a century
Posted on July 19, 2012
July 19, 2012 – IOWA – The worst drought in a half century will continue to plague most of the U.S. Midwest crop region for at least the next 10 days, with only occasional showers providing some relief mainly in the east, an agricultural meteorologist said on Thursday. America’s top two corn and soybean producing states, Iowa and Illinois, are now in the center of the drought as the dryness spreads to the northwest to leech what little moisture remains in already parched soils. “It looks a little wetter today for Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, but the west is still dry with above-normal temperatures,” said Jason Nicholls, meteorologist for AccuWeather. Rain for the next 10 days will run the gamut from just 40 to 75 percent of normal, with the greatest stress in the western Midwest crop states such as top producer Iowa. “It got up to 102 to 103 degrees Fahrenheit in Iowa yesterday with no rain, and will be in the 90s today with no rain,” Nicholls said. Rainfall overnight Wednesday left up to 1.5 inches in Chicago and an inch in Rockford, Illinois. “Only isolated rains, no drought buster,” he stressed. In addition to rain in northeastern Illinois, showers fell in southern Wisconsin, Indiana and southwestern Michigan. “It will be cooler on Friday but the heat will be back for the weekend into early next week. The 11- to 15-day forecast shows the ridge moving west over the Rockies so that may help cut back on the heat, but there is still no significant rain in sight,” he said. An atmospheric high pressure ridge has entrenched itself over the heart of the U.S. corn and soybean producing states, preventing moisture from moving into the crop belt, leading to a buildup of heat, causing crop losses and spawning record-high corn and soy prices. Commodity Weather Group (CWG) on Thursday predicted the heat would last longer next week than had earlier been forecast. More than half of the Midwest was severely dry. “The most concern is in west central Indiana, much of Illinois, far northern Missouri, most of Iowa, southwest Minnesota, southern South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas,” said CWG meteorologist Joel Widenor. As the drought, rated the worst since 1956, expands to the northern and western Midwest, areas that had previously been spared, analysts were slashing corn yield estimates by the hour. Some were also starting to cut their forecasts on the number of acres that will be harvested as farmers opt to plow under some of their parched fields to claim insurance. –Reuters
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My prediction for August is 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane.
Quite the forecast
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1204. Patrap
We started with 3 Hanging Topsy Turvy Bell peppers, maters, and Hot peppers.

Now we have a boatload and a Side Garden in the yard.

Simple steps that improved our lives, teaches the neighborhoods kids to Garden,so we all win.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129848
I can't believe fox 5 sorry *** their actually playing a reality T.V show and not warning people of the approching storm.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17816
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Reporting blinding rain, wind gusts about 50 MPH and pea size hail here with these storms.
Breath in..breath out..breath in breath out..Flash backs!!!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17816
Quoting Skyepony:
nofailsafe~ One of the things I do to help with climate change is eat real, organic food from local sources, including growing as much of it myself as possible. .


I'm into learning how to identify edible weeds.... And how to cultivate them...

Check Link

This one in Spanish is from PR, listing 27 wild or local plants you can eat...

Link
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Reporting blinding rain, wind gusts about 50 MPH and pea size hail here with these storms.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
DCC001-MDC017-031-033-VAC013-059-153-510-600-610- 685-200215-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0221.120720T0134Z-120720T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
934 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
NORTHERN CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
CITY OF FAIRFAX IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
CITY OF FALLS CHURCH IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
ARLINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
CITY OF MANASSAS PARK IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
WESTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 930 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GREAT FALLS TO WOLF TRAP TO CENTREVILLE...AND WERE
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VIENNA...
TYSONS CORNER...
PIMMIT HILLS...
MANTUA...
THE AMERICAN LEGION BRIDGE...
THE I66 AND I495 INTERCHANGE...
BETHESDA...
LAKE RIDGE...
BURKE...
ANNANDALE...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE
INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3874 7688 3855 7708 3882 7754 3895 7739
3907 7732 3895 7684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 287DEG 18KT 3902 7723 3892 7727
3883 7738

$$


BJL
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
People are reporting winds of up to 50mph with these storms with very heavy rain fall with intense lightning and thunder..Oh lord the flash backs are all ready occuring.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17816
1196. LargoFl
Farming pushed natural drought into disaster--and could do so again.

NEW YORK – Climate scientists using computer models to simulate the 1930s Dust Bowl on the U.S Great Plains have found that dust raised by farmers probably amplified and spread a natural drop in rainfall, turning an ordinary drying cycle into an agricultural collapse. The researchers say the study raises concern that current pressures on farmland from population growth and climate change could worsen current food crises by leading to similar events in other regions.

Recent studies indicate that periodic droughts in the western United States are controlled by naturally occurring periods of cool sea-surface water temperatures over the eastern tropical Pacific—so-called La Niña phases. Via long-distance winds, these phases indirectly affect faraway rain patterns. In addition to the 1930s, such patterns have occurred in the 1850-60s, 1870s, 1890s, 1950s, and 1999 to present.

What made the 1930s different was the arrival of farmers onto the Great Plains, where they replaced drought-resistant wild prairie grasses with fragile wheat, neglected to plant cover crops in unused fields, and allowed livestock to overgraze pastures. When the 1932-1939 drought struck, plants shriveled and ever more bare soil was exposed. The land was quickly eroded by gigantic dust storms, and farming collapsed. Skies were chronically darkened on and off; in some years, an estimated 770 million metric tons of topsoil were lost, and over the whole time, 3.5 million people were displaced--one of the 20th century’s worst environmental disasters. The new study finds that farm dust probably fed the disaster, doubling the drop in rainfall, and moving the drought itself northward into major farming regions.

The researchers, based at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (both affiliates of Columbia University’s Earth Institute) used a computer model to simulate a 1930s drought driven only by the change in sea-surface temperature. This showed a 5% drop in rainfall, centered over northern Mexico and the U.S. southwest, where little agriculture then took place. This would have affected the Great Plains too, but probably would have not brought disaster. Then the modelers added in the effects of dust, using data from the ‘30s that indicated dust sources, and allowing the computer to create dust storms. This yielded a simulated event eerily like the real one, with a full 10% drop in rain—to just 18 inches a year--and centered over the prairie farm regions of north Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa.

Lead author Benjamin Cook, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration postdoctoral researcher affiliated with both Lamont and Goddard, said the effect occurred because dust particles suspended in air reflect solar radiation. Studies by researchers in other parts of the world show that this causes a drop in temperatures at or near the soil surface, lessening evaporation of moisture into the air, and thus decreasing precipitation even further. Dust on the Great Plains helped draw the drought northward like a siphon, said Cook. “This is what made the Dust Bowl the Dust Bowl,” he said. “It was a process that fed on itself.”

The U.S. southwest is currently suffering a serious long-term drought that threatens agriculture and population growth there. Cook said it is unlikely that this by itself will cause another Dust Bowl in the United States. Among other things, the U.S. Soil Conservation Service, founded in response to the ‘30s crisis, shifted farmers into more sustainable practices. On the other hand, Cook points out that many scientists believe hard-pressed farmers and herders in places like China and Africa’s Sahel region may be repeating the experience, ruining marginal lands in order to feed themselves in the short term. “This highlights the fact that humans can alter natural events and make them worse,” said coauthor Richard Seager, a modeler at Lamont. Seager says that scientists studying global climate change predict many subtropical regions will dry in coming years. “That, in combination with the pressure from rising population and demand for food, could lead to a similar cycle of drought, dust storms and more drought,” he said. “The lesson of the Dust Bowl is there to be learned.”

“Dust and sea surface temperature forcing of the 1930s ‘Dust Bowl’ drought” appears in the current online edition of Geophysical Research Letters: http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0808/2008GL033486 /.

###

More information, and images: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/d ust_storms.shtml
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
Over the past 3 days(today, yesterday, and Tuesday) I've went from 102F, sunny, hot, and dry to 70F, rainy, wet, and cool. My average temperature is 82F.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
1194. Skyepony (Mod)
Wildfires have forced the evacuation of dozens of villagers from their homes in Madeira on Thursday, with the Portuguese authorities sending teams from the mainland to help overwhelmed local firefighters. Portugal had suffered from a severe drought this year before being hit by temperatures of up to 40C this week, which has triggered forest blazes on the mainland too. More than 300 firefighters were struggling on Thursday to put out wildfires near Tavira, a popular holiday destination in the Algarve region near the Spanish border. Authorities in Madeira have used planes and helicopters to combat the flames, including an aircraft sent by Spain's civil defence. Portugal sent a military transport plane with 83 firefighters to Madeira, where the flames briefly threatened the outskirts of Funchal, the archipelago's capital, on Wednesday night. The Portuguese interior minister, Miguel Macedo, is also in Madeira to co-ordinate the efforts. While Funchal was mostly out of danger on Thursday, television footage from the archipelago's smaller island of Porto Santo showed houses catching fire and firefighters telling residents of Camacha to abandon the area. "The changing wind is strongly compromising the effort to put out the flames, and we only have five firemen there and one truck," the local fire brigade chief, Afonso Nobrega, told the Lusa news agency. SIC television showed a local man shouting for help to get three women out of a building whose door was on fire. Enveloped in heavy smoke, local residents sprayed water on the outside of their homes while others fled. There have been no reports of deaths of serious injuries. This year's drought, coupled with scorching weather, poses a threat that fires will escalate during the hottest period in late July and August.
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1193. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
...In other hydrological news, a 1500 year record of precipitation patterns in North America was published this weekin the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The authors use oxygen isotopes in lake sediments and a physical model to infer changes in rainfall, with findings that are discordant with what has previously been understood from the tree ring record.

This research helps to inform our understanding of drought regimes in North America on centennial/millennial timescales.The authors demonstrate that the Pacific Northwest experienced exceptionally wet conditions during the Medieval Warm Period (900-1300 AD) and much drier conditions during the Little Ice Age(1450-1850 AD) which is in direct contrastto what has been shownto have occurredin the Southwest. The findings have been related to the climate dynamics associated with the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI) the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). Asis often the subject in this blog, these records of past climate help to inform our understanding of what we can expect, and perhaps even predict from our current climate. And in North America the hydrological cycle is an increasingly topical issue, with not enough water in the south, and a little too much in the north.

http://oncirculation.com/2012/07/20/water-water-e veywhere/
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SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
455 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

VALID 00Z FRI JUL 20 2012 - 00Z SUN JUL 22 2012

...HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL STATES...

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EAST COAST AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...

...MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...


THE PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST COASTS. UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE, VERY HOT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS
CLOUD COVER AND ALLOWS FOR NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE, WITH HIGHS NEAR
100 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
TEXAS.

WITH RESPECT TO THE EAST COAST TROUGH, THERE SHOULD BE A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE AMONG THE WEATHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST,
INCLUDING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE OTHER TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY. STRONG LIFT SUPPLIED BY THIS CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION
OF THE COUNTRY. BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE DISTURBANCE ASSUMES A
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE CHANCES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
INTO THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

ELSEWHERE, MID-LEVEL IMPULSES AND AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE REGION BEING ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE,
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND UP INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
1190. akailm
I would think anybody that would grow their food would consider what this says.. a real way to save h20, and a use for the so called carbon pollution,, it's real.. not bulimic.. a possible solution to the hysteria confronting us.examine if you can.. with a open mind.http://co2au.blogspot.com/2011/12/v-behavioru rldefaultvmlo_1587.html
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1189. Skyepony (Mod)
About 3,000 people in a city of southwestern Japanese island of Kyushu were forced to evacuate their homes again on Thursday due to threats of landslide and flood caused by heavy rain. According to Japan's public broadcaster NHK, the residents in Aso City where landslides hit houses last week were ordered to evacuate their houses on Thursday morning as heavy rain continued to fall on the area covered with volcanic ash soil which is very fragile. In Aso City and its surrounding region of Kumamoto Prefecture, at least 23 people were found dead and two went missing after landslides hit houses last week in more than 60 places. Heavy rain caused by Tropical Storm Khanun poured in several areas of northern Kyushu which saw hourly rainfall between 40 and 50 mm in the morning hours. The Japan Meteorological agency warned as the tropical storm moves north, heavy rainfall may trigger further floods and landslides in Kyushu till Friday.
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1188. LargoFl
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KYC109-121-125-147-199-203-231-235-200230-
/O.NEW.KJKL.SV.W.0178.120720T0129Z-120720T0230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
929 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
WESTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN MCCREARY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 928 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CAMP WILDCAT TO BLOSS TO
SCIENCE HILL TO 12 MILES WEST OF LIBERTY TO 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RUSSELL SPRINGS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOMERSET...LONDON...BARBOURVILLE...MONTICELLO...WI LLIAMSBURG...
HAZEL PATCH...HOGUE...SHOPVILLE...VICTORY...BILLOWS...WO OD CREEK
LAKE...OAKLEY...STAB...HARE...MAGNUM...CARMICHAEL. ..POINTER...EAST
BERNSTADT...BENT AND BERNSTADT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3692 8496 3696 8495 3696 8490 3699 8485
3705 8491 3712 8491 3725 8471 3728 8441
3735 8415 3682 8378 3675 8396 3672 8428
3678 8475 3679 8502 3684 8507 3686 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 326DEG 25KT 3725 8419 3720 8434
3718 8466 3725 8513 3723 8535
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
1187. mati
Quoting sunlinepr:

Deformed plants are found in a contaminated area of Southern Ibaraki %u2013 (Map below)


A thousand small fish found dead in Kasumi River, Tokyo
Posted on July 19, 2012
July 19, 2012 JAPAN On 7/17/2012, around one thousand of small fish such as Japanese dace were found dead for 500m of Kasumi river Aoume city Tokyo. A citizen reported it to the city office at 17:15 of 7/17/2012. According to their water-quality test, oxygen concentration is normal, chlorine or cyanogen were not detected. Tokyo metropolitan government is going to check if a factory dumped waste water or agricultural chemical in the upper stream. Last November, about 5000 of small fish such as Japanese dace were found dead at the same location too, but they could not identify the cause either. Fukushima Diary



I bet it is hormono-chemical distruptors:

Link
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Typhoon Khanun sweeps across Korea, leaving 1 dead
Posted on July 19, 2012

Link

July 19, 2012 – KOREA – Typhoon Khanun dumped heavy rains on the nation on Thursday morning, leaving one dead, tens of thousands of households without electricity and major transportation systems at a halt before it subsided in the afternoon. The government said that the first tropical storm of this year left less-than-feared damage. The Korean Meteorological Administration cleared most of the typhoon alerts and warnings nationwide as of 1pm (12pm Singapore time). The state weather agency said that the typhoon reached Korea on Wednesday where it lost its power and turned into an extratropical cyclone in the seas off Sokcho, Gangwon Province. Still, torrential downpours and strong winds were expected to continue until late Thursday night in some parts of the country, it said. –Strait Times
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1185. wxmod
Quoting Skyepony:
nofailsafe~ One of the things I do to help with climate change is eat real, organic food from local sources, including growing as much of it myself as possible. Near 15% of energy is used on agriculture on a large scale. Big Ag is by far the largest forcing of the 3rd most worrisome greenhouse gas Nitrous Oxide. Growing food with little human labor includes the use of pesticides & fertilizers that are causing the dead zones in not just the Gulf of Mexico but here in the Indian River. Last year disturbing amounts of Round Up was found in the rain over the Mississippi Basin.

I does look expensive & daunting at the start. Started small & easy with the garden, just a few pots. Used compost & such to grow in. Some of our waste doesn't need a ride to the dump, it can easily be turned to free dirt with the fertilizer already included. Chickens were a step up, they turn food scrap to fertilizer & produce eggs. Saw some where in Europe they required at least two chickens a household to help keep landfill space available & fertilizer use down.

Started by cutting out genetically modified food & asking where my food was coming from. Tried to keep mostly to the southeast since I live in FL. Learned what seasons food is harvested, tasted & learned to eat the local fare. It was a larger learning experience than the gardening. Started making jams, breads, learned canning, freezing & such. Saves money & time shopping.

Putting up my own food plus expanding the garden a raised bed or a few pots a year eventually saved enough money to buy grass fed meat & such. Over all I'm now paying out less than some of my top couponing friends & unlike energy efficient things I did that just save money, this has saved money & health. Never ate better. Saves time to send the kids out in the garden to snack. Pretty sure that heavy bearing passionfruit covering the south side of the house brought the power bill down even more in this heat.


Simple things add up. TV shows and commercials promote extremely wasteful lifestyles. You can live better on less fuel and less money if you just pay attention to what's real compared to what's hype and advertisement.

People, wean yourselves from TV.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1771
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1183. mati
Quoting sunlinepr:
M4.5 quake hits Fukushima — Third M4 in last 24 hours

Link


Japanese being allowed to move into Fukusima exclusion zones:

Link
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
1181. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132
1180. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42132

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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