Morocco hits 121°F (49.6°C): a national all-time heat record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 AM GMT on July 18, 2012

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The first new all-time national temperature record of 2012 belongs to Morocco, thanks to the 121.3°F (49.6°C) temperature measured at Marrakech on July 17, 2012. According to the Wunderground International Records data base maintained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the previous record was 120.4°F (49.1°C) at Agadir on July 30, 2009. A hotter temperature of 51.7°C (125.1°F) was reported from Aghadir (Agadir) Souss Massa Dra region on 17 August 1940 during a chergui wind event. However, this reading is considered unreliable by weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, since the temperature was 6°C higher than that measured at nearby stations.

Seven nations set all time heat records in 2011. Nineteen nations (plus the the U.K.'s Ascension Island) set all-time extreme heat records in 2010. One nation (Zambia, in 2011) set an all-time cold record during the period 2010 - 2012. With a very hot airmass in place over much of North Africa, the Middle East, and Western Asia the remainder of this week, more all-time national heat records may fall.


Figure 1. A sample image of what the new Fire Risk layer on our wundermap looks like. This is the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, one of several indices that can be used to measure fire risk. Blue and green colors represent lower risks, while yellow and orange colors show higher risk. The highest risk is shown in dark red. The legend for the Fire Risk layer explains that these highest risk areas are often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels.

Wunderground releases new fire risk layer on its wundermap
Our interactive wundermap, which allows one to overlay multiple meteorological data sets, has a new layer: a Fire Risk layer. Using data from the U.S. Forest Service's Wildland Fire Assessment System, we give you option to plot up U.S. fire danger using a variety of options: Fire Danger Rating, Lower Atmosphere Stability (Haines Index), Keetch-Byram Drought Index, 10-hr Dead Fuel Moisture, 100-hr Dead Fuel Moisture, and 1000-hr Dead Fuel Moisture. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, California currently has the most number of of large fires burning of any state (5), which makes sense, given what the fire risk map above is showing.

Jeff Masters

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Slow so ... there was talk about cloud seeding on the last blog. Here are statements from the AMS on cloud seeding, inadvertent weather modification and geoengineering.

I found this interesting article on a website devoted to the Edwards Aquifer. FYI, San Antonio and Austin rely on this aquifer for drinking water. There have been serious problems with overuse of this water.



The article gives some flavor of the confusion surrounding cloud seeding. The desire for it to work is strong. The evidence is ... eh.
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We have 99E. This one is legit.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep992012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207180258
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2012, DB, O, 2012071800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992012
EP, 99, 2012071700, , BEST, 0, 83N, 1091W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2012071706, , BEST, 0, 83N, 1102W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2012071712, , BEST, 0, 83N, 1113W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1124W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2012071800, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1135W, 20, 1007, DB

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14410
Thanks Dr M.
Blog about epac, atlantic, and usa Link.
I say C
Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS at 168 hours is showing a wave getting out of africa and other in north atlantic
Wich you think will be Ernesto ?

A) #1
B) #2
C) neither of this options

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thanks for update doc

we beat our own day time record today previous 35.2july 2011 today 36.2 july 2012 1 degree hotter in 12 months
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
Quoting hydrus:
The Earth and the Sun are tradin places...The devil couldnt take this heat..


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
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Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS at 168 hours is showing a wave getting out of africa and other in north atlantic
Wich you think will be Ernesto ?

A) #1
B) #2
C) neither of this options


While I don't think any of them will develop, I think we'll at least get an invest out of one of them.
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850mb Vorticity

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Good evening nigel. The Sal is now gone as moisture increases in the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
936 PM AST TUE JUL 17 2012

.UPDATE...MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS ADDED TO THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND MORE IS EXPECTED LATER AS SURFACE HIGH
PUMPS AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TOWARD
THE ISLANDS. HAVE RAISED THE FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
WHERE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LANDING AND RADAR SHOWS MORE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE SEEN
IN THE SAN JUAN AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS
AND WAVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST MAY HELP INCREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KFT ARE STILL BRISK REACHING 25
KNOTS IN THE HIGHER PART OF THE LAYER AND THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AMOUNTS FAIRLY LOW.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14410
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Thanks, Dr. Masters. I can't wait to check out the new fire risk layers on Wundermap, but I can't get them to work. I see the Fire (risk) layer and can select the various options (lower atmosphere stability, fuel moisture, etc.), but when I turn on the layer and pan around the map I don't see anything no matter which option I have selected.

Using Chrome 20.0.1132.57.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS at 168 hours is showing a wave getting out of africa and other in north atlantic
Wich you think will be Ernesto ?

A) #1
B) #2
C) neither of this options



Probably C.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS at 168 hours is showing a wave getting out of africa and other in north atlantic
Wich you think will be Ernesto ?

A) #1
B) #2
C) neither of this options

Maybe B, but for now I'm going to go with C.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS at 168 hours is showing a wave getting out of africa and other in north atlantic
Wich you think will be Ernesto ?

A) #1
B) #2
C) neither of this options



C
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
If you are wondering where the unusually hot and unusually cold spots are on the globe, these maps will give you an idea. These show the departure of temperature from the long-term average for the three months preceding July.

April:


May:


June:



The July map isn't out yet because, and I'm just guessing here, the month isn't over yet. But clearly the pattern of anomalies doesn't swing around willy-nilly... on monthly time scales it is a slow progression. Thus, in my expert opinion, the July map will look similar to (but different than) the June map.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS at 168 hours is showing a wave getting out of africa and other in north atlantic
Wich you think will be Ernesto ?

A) #1
B) #2
C) neither of this options

A
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Quoting cyclonekid:
It was an 'oopsie'. It was supposed to be a test. So it kind of is real and kind of isn't.
Quoting Civicane49:


I think it was only a test.
thanks both of you for answering me.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS at 168 hours is showing a wave getting out of africa and other in north atlantic
Wich you think will be Ernesto ?

A) #1
B) #2
C) neither of this options



C
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It was for the PR bloggers in here -_- lol
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Quoting allancalderini:
So 91L is real or not?


I think it was only a test.
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Quoting allancalderini:
So 91L is real or not?
It was an 'oopsie'. It was supposed to be a test. So it kind of is real and kind of isn't.
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Eastern Pacific Total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): 54.7
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So 91L is real or not?
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Quoting JeffM:
So when will start to see some tropical activity in the Atlantic? Been very quiet lately.
It's possible that we won't see anything until August.
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So when will start to see some tropical activity in the Atlantic? Been very quiet lately.
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...FABIO WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 17
Location: 23.9°N 120.5°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
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Quoting jeffs713:


http://translate.google.com/

Tolerance is a good thing.


I'm joking... wow...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting Bielle:
I wonder why Dr Masters has switched to doing new blogs at night. Has this been going on for long?

No, it is fairly new, but I like it. This way, during the summer, the kiddos can't spam it with wild predictions, "gut feelings", and "hunches".
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...FABIO WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 120.5W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO
ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FABIO HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS OWING TO A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
CLOUD TOPS TO -50C LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09 KT. FABIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH
A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FABIO IS NOT LONG FOR THIS WORLD SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE
MOVING OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND INTO A STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND
FABIO SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY COMPLETE DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER.

ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER MOVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 48 HOURS...THE DECOUPLED REMNANT MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 23.9N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 25.0N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 26.4N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 27.6N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I want to post a Samuel L Jackson meme but I won't because it could result in a ban..

English

Do you speak it?!?!


http://translate.google.com/

Tolerance is a good thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS at 168 hours is showing a wave getting out of africa and other in north atlantic
Wich you think will be Ernesto ?

A) #1
B) #2
C) neither of this options

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Here's my entry earlier today for those who missed it.
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Thanks Dr Masters...Good evening fellow bloggers!

Daily SOI: 11.3
30 Day SOI: -6.0
90 Day SOI: -3.2
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I totally understand this article.


He is talking about the SAL, is producing deterioration in the air that they are breathing
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A little bit better local news: As rainfall rate goes up, hay prices come down
Excerpt: One year after the worst drought and heat wave ever experienced in Texas, much of the Lone Star State has been blessed with ample rainfall throughout the spring, and into the summer. The cooperative weather has not only brought temperatures back to normal levels, but it has also helped to produce a healthy hay crop, and brought hay prices down from last year. That’s great news for Texas and Oklahoma; the two largest producers of both hay, and cattle, in the country, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Although the 2011 drought was the worst in Texas, the rest of the country also felt the effects, and the USDA says last year had the smallest hay crop, from California to Maryland, since they began keeping records in 1909. The shortage even surpassed the 1930’s Dust Bowl, which was devastating to the Texas Panhandle, northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, southern Kansas, and the entire state of Oklahoma.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I want to post a Samuel L Jackson meme but I won't because it could result in a ban..

English

Do you speak it?!?!


Here is the news translated to english. Edit=Oh I see it translated.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14410
Russia Fires today. MODIS satellite photo

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Translation:

Worsening air quality in Puerto Rico

The level of impurity of the air is attributed to the presence of dust particles from the Sahara desert

The index worsened air quality on Tuesday from 51 to 63, within the category of "moderate", as has the latest update to the daily monitoring keeps the Environmental Quality Board (EQB).

The level of impurity of air, which is attributed to the presence of dust particles from the Sahara Desert, was modified at 5:00 pm However, on Wednesday is expected to lower the rate again by the arrival of a weak trough.

"This is normal for this season in which events occur dry air associated with dust particles from the Sahara. Usually occurs in cycles of three to five, "said Ernesto Rodriguez, Meteorological Service of the United States in Puerto Rico.

Rodriguez said the concentration of Saharan dust particles in the air should be declining over the next few days due to the valley, until this Friday, July 20, when "another significant event would air dry" to Puerto Rico.

The meteorologist said that, while not expected to bring significant rain trough, precipitation will help clear some air quality, as "part of particulate precipitated in the rains."

For this Wednesday morning, Rodriguez predicted that there must be rain activity through the Eastern Townships. During the afternoon the rain activity would be moving toward the west.

By Thursday and Friday, the weatherman said scattered rainfall is expected related to the entry of rain bands and moisture.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I totally understand this article.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


I want to post a Samuel L Jackson meme but I won't because it could result in a ban..

English

Do you speak it?!?!

TL;DR: Air quality is crap in PR right now. But it should rain later this week, only for more SAL to enter afterwards.
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Quoting Bielle:
I wonder why Dr Masters has switched to doing new blogs at night. Has this been going on for long?


Perhaps he outsourced to Asia....
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Quoting Gearsts:
(PR news first time i seen this on news)Empeora la calidad del aire en Puerto Rico

El nivel de impureza del aire se le atribuye a la presencia de partículas de polvo del desierto del Sahara



Brenda I. Peña López / brenda.pena@gfrmedia.com


El índice en la calidad del aire empeoró este martes de 51 a 63, dentro de la categoría de “moderada”, según lo presenta la actualización más reciente del monitoreo que mantiene a diario la Junta de Calidad Ambiental (JCA).

El nivel de impureza del aire, que se le atribuye a la presencia de partículas de polvo del desierto del Sahara, fue modificado a las 5:00 p.m. Sin embargo, se espera que este miércoles el índice baje nuevamente debido a la llegada de una débil vaguada.

“Esto es normal en esta temporada en que se presentan eventos de aire seco asociados a partículas de polvo del Sahara. Usualmente se presenta en ciclos de tres a cinco”, explicó Ernesto Rodríguez, del Servicio de Meteorología de Estados Unidos en Puerto Rico.

Rodríguez dijo que la concentración de partículas de polvo del Sahara en el aire debe ir disminuyendo durante los próximos días debido a la vaguada, hasta este viernes, 20 de julio, cuando “otro evento significativo de aire seco llegaría” a Puerto Rico.

El meteorólogo señaló que, aunque no se prevé que la vaguada traiga lluvia significativa, la precipitación ayudará a limpiar un poco la calidad del aire, pues “parte del particulado se precipita en las lluvias”.

Para este miércoles en la mañana, Rodríguez pronosticó que debe haber actividad de lluvia a través de los municipios del este. Durante la tarde, la actividad de lluvia se iría moviendo hacia el oeste.

Para el jueves y viernes, el meteorólogo agregó que se espera precipitación dispersa relacionada con la entrada de bandas de lluvias y con la humedad.

I totally understand this article.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32342
10. Skyepony (Mod)
How about that LBAR track for Fabio..LOL.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
More record heat. :\

Thanks Dr. Masters.
The Earth and the Sun are tradin places...The devil couldnt take this heat..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21495
Quoting Gearsts:
(PR news first time i seen this on news)Empeora la calidad del aire en Puerto Rico

El nivel de impureza del aire se le atribuye a la presencia de partículas de polvo del desierto del Sahara



Brenda I. Peña López / brenda.pena@gfrmedia.com


El índice en la calidad del aire empeoró este martes de 51 a 63, dentro de la categoría de “moderada”, según lo presenta la actualización más reciente del monitoreo que mantiene a diario la Junta de Calidad Ambiental (JCA).

El nivel de impureza del aire, que se le atribuye a la presencia de partículas de polvo del desierto del Sahara, fue modificado a las 5:00 p.m. Sin embargo, se espera que este miércoles el índice baje nuevamente debido a la llegada de una débil vaguada.

“Esto es normal en esta temporada en que se presentan eventos de aire seco asociados a partículas de polvo del Sahara. Usualmente se presenta en ciclos de tres a cinco”, explicó Ernesto Rodríguez, del Servicio de Meteorología de Estados Unidos en Puerto Rico.

Rodríguez dijo que la concentración de partículas de polvo del Sahara en el aire debe ir disminuyendo durante los próximos días debido a la vaguada, hasta este viernes, 20 de julio, cuando “otro evento significativo de aire seco llegaría” a Puerto Rico.

El meteorólogo señaló que, aunque no se prevé que la vaguada traiga lluvia significativa, la precipitación ayudará a limpiar un poco la calidad del aire, pues “parte del particulado se precipita en las lluvias”.

Para este miércoles en la mañana, Rodríguez pronosticó que debe haber actividad de lluvia a través de los municipios del este. Durante la tarde, la actividad de lluvia se iría moviendo hacia el oeste.

Para el jueves y viernes, el meteorólogo agregó que se espera precipitación dispersa relacionada con la entrada de bandas de lluvias y con la humedad.


I want to post a Samuel L Jackson meme but I won't because it could result in a ban..

English

Do you speak it?!?!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
(PR news first time i seen this on news)Empeora la calidad del aire en Puerto Rico

El nivel de impureza del aire se le atribuye a la presencia de partículas de polvo del desierto del Sahara



Brenda I. Peña López / brenda.pena@gfrmedia.com


El índice en la calidad del aire empeoró este martes de 51 a 63, dentro de la categoría de “moderada”, según lo presenta la actualización más reciente del monitoreo que mantiene a diario la Junta de Calidad Ambiental (JCA).

El nivel de impureza del aire, que se le atribuye a la presencia de partículas de polvo del desierto del Sahara, fue modificado a las 5:00 p.m. Sin embargo, se espera que este miércoles el índice baje nuevamente debido a la llegada de una débil vaguada.

“Esto es normal en esta temporada en que se presentan eventos de aire seco asociados a partículas de polvo del Sahara. Usualmente se presenta en ciclos de tres a cinco”, explicó Ernesto Rodríguez, del Servicio de Meteorología de Estados Unidos en Puerto Rico.

Rodríguez dijo que la concentración de partículas de polvo del Sahara en el aire debe ir disminuyendo durante los próximos días debido a la vaguada, hasta este viernes, 20 de julio, cuando “otro evento significativo de aire seco llegaría” a Puerto Rico.

El meteorólogo señaló que, aunque no se prevé que la vaguada traiga lluvia significativa, la precipitación ayudará a limpiar un poco la calidad del aire, pues “parte del particulado se precipita en las lluvias”.

Para este miércoles en la mañana, Rodríguez pronosticó que debe haber actividad de lluvia a través de los municipios del este. Durante la tarde, la actividad de lluvia se iría moviendo hacia el oeste.

Para el jueves y viernes, el meteorólogo agregó que se espera precipitación dispersa relacionada con la entrada de bandas de lluvias y con la humedad.
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The GTWO archives are finally back up. Now I can go complete the 2012 Pacific hurricane season page on Wikipedia that I've been so adamantly waiting to do. It's just one big mess.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32342
500 by 1200 mile piece of the pacific today. MODIS satellite photo.


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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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