Morocco hits 121°F (49.6°C): a national all-time heat record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 AM GMT on July 18, 2012

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The first new all-time national temperature record of 2012 belongs to Morocco, thanks to the 121.3°F (49.6°C) temperature measured at Marrakech on July 17, 2012. According to the Wunderground International Records data base maintained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the previous record was 120.4°F (49.1°C) at Agadir on July 30, 2009. A hotter temperature of 51.7°C (125.1°F) was reported from Aghadir (Agadir) Souss Massa Dra region on 17 August 1940 during a chergui wind event. However, this reading is considered unreliable by weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, since the temperature was 6°C higher than that measured at nearby stations.

Seven nations set all time heat records in 2011. Nineteen nations (plus the the U.K.'s Ascension Island) set all-time extreme heat records in 2010. One nation (Zambia, in 2011) set an all-time cold record during the period 2010 - 2012. With a very hot airmass in place over much of North Africa, the Middle East, and Western Asia the remainder of this week, more all-time national heat records may fall.


Figure 1. A sample image of what the new Fire Risk layer on our wundermap looks like. This is the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, one of several indices that can be used to measure fire risk. Blue and green colors represent lower risks, while yellow and orange colors show higher risk. The highest risk is shown in dark red. The legend for the Fire Risk layer explains that these highest risk areas are often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels.

Wunderground releases new fire risk layer on its wundermap
Our interactive wundermap, which allows one to overlay multiple meteorological data sets, has a new layer: a Fire Risk layer. Using data from the U.S. Forest Service's Wildland Fire Assessment System, we give you option to plot up U.S. fire danger using a variety of options: Fire Danger Rating, Lower Atmosphere Stability (Haines Index), Keetch-Byram Drought Index, 10-hr Dead Fuel Moisture, 100-hr Dead Fuel Moisture, and 1000-hr Dead Fuel Moisture. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, California currently has the most number of of large fires burning of any state (5), which makes sense, given what the fire risk map above is showing.

Jeff Masters

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Farmers Almanac says we might have to wait until September to get a tropical system heading toward the US.

July 2012
16th-19th. Sultry conditions, then scattered thunderstorms.
20th-23rd. Mostly fair.
24th-27th. Scattered showers, then fair weather.
28th-31st. Humid, sticky weather, accompanied by hit-or-miss showers, thunderstorms.


August 2012
1st-3rd. Widely scattered showers, thunderstorms.
4th-7th. Fair, then scattered thunderstorms across parts of Southeast.
8th-11th. Hot and humid.
12th-15th. Ongoing threat of thunderstorms, some severe.
16th-19th. Wet system from Gulf of Mexico moves inland and brings copious rains to eastern Mississippi River Valley.
20th-23rd. Showery, then fair.
24th-27th. Hefty thunderstorm activity gives a glancing blow to the upper Tennessee River. Generally fair skies elsewhere.
28th-31st. Thunderstorms, some heavy, especially for Gulf Coast.


September 2012
1st-3rd. Scattered showers, a few thunderstorms during the Labor Day weekend.
4th-7th. Hot and oppressively humid.
8th-11th. Hurricane threat along Gulf Coast. Heavy thunderstorms.
12th-15th. Hurricane threat Southeast Coast
.


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Quoting Neapolitan:
Had a nice experience this morning. I stepped out onto the balcony about a quarter to six to drink a cup of coffee and gaze at the beautiful triangle of Venus, Jupiter, and Aldebaran (and you really ought to get up early at least once and see it if you haven't already done so). After a few minutes of admiring that while sipping my coffee, I caught movement out of the corner of my eye, and turned to see the ISS speeding by southwest to north, very bright given its angle and the sun. I watched it for another minute or two. Then, just about the time it faded into the haze on the northern horizon, a bright (-5 to -7) vertical-moving bolide fell down almost directly north of me, accompanied by a double-terminal flash that was made yellow/orange due to distance. And to top it all off, while I was processing that, I saw a series of lightning flashes from some thunderstorm cells offshore of Tampa.

Not bad for a morning's work. The only negative part is, that'll all be hard to top, so the rest of the day will probably be downhill... ;-)


Spooky Channel, Roatan, Honduras - sit out on the dock at night when the power is out (a lot, in the '90s at least), a night so dark you can hardly see the island against a black sky filled with stars, and the milky way cutting the sky like a ribbon almost, and then heat lightning arcs from one horizon almost to the other showing clouds so thin they don't obstruct the stars and are only visible backlit by the lightning. Then in the water, phosphorescence and relections of star.... amazing.


Speaking of a beautiful planet, why is global warming not an election year issue? I understand the republicans can't use it since their low IQ LBO in the Bush years, but surely the dems would be interested? Or is it that they want to win and then address the issue? Surelyt that is a little chicken hearted of them, no?


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Crown Weather paints a grim picture for those who want to see Tropical Development in the North Atlantic basin soon.The first two weeks of August is when things may pick up in activity he says.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14764
Quoting Neapolitan:
The image below shows the 7-day forecast for Kansas City. Now, none of the forecast temperatures are records--but they are indicative of a drought-stricken area in crisis, and about to worsen.

KCMO

The governor of Missouri yesterday declared all 144 of the state's counties as natural disaster areas because of the drought, making farmers eligible for government loans and other assistance.

A Purdue University agronomist, Tony Vyn, yesterday said, "We're moving from a crisis to a horror story. I see an increasing number of fields that will produce zero grain."

Making things worse, other agricultural areas around the globe are having their own bouts with droughts, so there won't be much help in getting grain from elsewhere. Kazakhstan, for instance, is suffering from "an alarming drought". (Link...)



Geesh 105 for a high today!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Yup, this drought is pretty scary as there is no end in sight and we have August coming which is typically the hottest month of the year for most of the US. Temperatures in the mid to upper 90's and even 100 in some places is drying the soil out across the MidWest at a very fast pace so expect exceptional drought conditions over many areas across the MidWest over the coming weeks.
The image below shows the 7-day forecast for Kansas City. Now, none of the forecast temperatures are records--but they are indicative of a drought-stricken growing region in crisis, and about to worsen.

KCMO

The governor of Missouri yesterday declared all 144 of the state's counties as natural disaster areas because of the drought, making farmers eligible for government loans and other assistance.

A Purdue University agronomist, Tony Vyn, yesterday said, "We're moving from a crisis to a horror story. I see an increasing number of fields that will produce zero grain."

Making things worse, other agricultural areas around the globe are having their own bouts with droughts, so there won't be much help in getting grain from elsewhere. Kazakhstan, for instance, is suffering from "an alarming drought". (Link...)
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My personal home town is currently obliterating some records for this summer. We have a current streak of 21 consecutive days of at or above 90 degree's Fahrenheit going back to June 27th, with 6 of those days being above 100 degrees. The average high during this 21 day span has been 95.3 degrees. On average we typically see an average of 86-87 degrees just as late July rolls around. Next week calls for mid 90's straight through, with the CPC also showing the same general pattern for the next 6-14 days out.

On a strange note, I did pick up 1.7 inches of rain in 20 minutes from a thunderstorm on Saturday. The insane part of this storm was the large amount water running off impermeable structures and then soon as it hit dirt it vanished. Even just around the gutter fallouts large amounts of water just under the shoot and you could just the sponge effect. It was a much much needed rain around here. We need much more though.

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Speaking of tropical plumes we got one pouring into West Central FL this morning.


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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Dr. Masters is on TWC right now about the drought.


Yup, this drought is pretty scary as there is no end in sight and we have August coming which is typically the hottest month of the year for most of the US. Temperatures in the mid to upper 90's and even 100 in some places is drying the soil out across the MidWest at a very fast pace so expect exceptional drought conditions over many areas across the MidWest over the coming weeks.

6-10 Temps


6-10 Precip
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Fabio's remnant moisture plume is about to stream into Southern California, a welcome sight this time of year:

Fabio
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Dr. Masters is on TWC right now about the drought.
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Had a nice experience this morning. I stepped out onto the balcony about a quarter to six to drink a cup of coffee and gaze at the beautiful triangle of Venus, Jupiter, and Aldebaran (and you really ought to get up early at least once and see it if you haven't already done so). After a few minutes of admiring that while sipping my coffee, I caught movement out of the corner of my eye, and turned to see the ISS speeding by southwest to north, very bright given its angle and the sun. I watched it for another minute or two. Then, just about the time it faded into the haze on the northern horizon, a bright (-5 to -7) vertical-moving bolide fell down almost directly north of me, accompanied by a double-terminal flash that was made yellow/orange due to distance. And to top it all off, while I was processing that, I saw a series of lightning flashes from some thunderstorm cells offshore of Tampa.

Not bad for a morning's work. The only negative part is, that'll all be hard to top, so the rest of the day will probably be downhill... ;-)
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Right now, Severe Tropical Storm Khanun is affecting southern S. Korea. It is expected to move NNW, then N to NNE, ultimately bringing rain to the western parts of the Korean Peninsula, including Seoul, where I am currently at right now.
Here is the latest satellite image:


According to the KMA (Korean Meteorological Agency), 50~120mm (2~5 in) of rain is expected in northern S. Korea.
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The GGEM model is showing excessive rains over the next five days for the FL Panhandle, AL, & GA.

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This ULL here well north of the Cape Verde Islands could believe it or not jump start the Cape Verde Season as it will weaken this strong ridge that has been in place across the C Atlantic. This is surely something to watch as that feature (ULL over the North Central Atlantic) will lift the ITCZ much further north over the coming days.



This could also go Sub Tropical by looking at the 850mb vort.
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A cold front has cleared the area, shunting yesterday's oppressive heat well to the south. However, abundant moisture remains in place and will support scattered shower and thunderstorm activity for much of the day. Highs will be about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday and will be on the high side of normal for this time of year. Slightly cooler temperatures in the low to mid 80s can be expected on Thursday along with another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs will remain in the 80s through the weekend with generally quiet weather.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
If this wave here in the C Atlantic and can lift a little north then we might be in business. As it sure does have some deep convection associated with it.

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DRY DRY DRY for most of the US and it's only getting worse each passing day. Even folks in Puerto Rico are heading into a pretty serious drought now.

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Quoting JLPR2:
Was extremely bored so I decided to check out a ridiculously long range model and found the CFS. The first storm I saw on it was at 1044hrs, or August 27th, wouldn't that completely consume the patience of everyone here? LOL



Though, no need to worry, this is as real as Willy Wonka's factory, with oompa loompas and everything. xD


Do you have the link to that site?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14764
Text description:

Tomorrow the whole of Poland will be in a warm area of the low with the center near Denmark. Airmass arriving from the west will be warm and moist. Convection conditions tomorrow will foster the creation of storms over the entire Polish territory. Coming from the west, the air mass is characterized by weak instability, but due to strong wind flow in the lower atmosphere and the course of the jet stream in the upper troposphere, there will be conditions conducive to the formation of storms.
Area 1a - has been appointed because of the increased values ​​of convection (CAPE 800-1000 J / kg, LI to about -2 ° C, KI 28-32 ° C), elevated values ​​of windshear in the layer 0-6 km (10 - 15 m / s) and the occurrence of hailstorms. Conditions within this zone will promote the formation of multicellular storms or storm supercell. In this case, we expect a strong gust of wind (up to 22-25 m / s), and hail with a diameter of 2-4 cm. We can not exclude the creation of a tornado. Rainfall forecast for the 10-15 mm, however, it is likely to several storm cells pass over one area, and thus accumulation of precipitation (20-30 mm).
Area 2 and 2a - This area was designated because of the increased values ​​of convection (CAPE 1400 to 1800 J / kg, LI of -4 ° C to -2 ° C, KI and 35 ° C), high values ​​of wind shear (both in velocity and direction), low values ​​of LCL (400-600 m AGL) and the high moisture content of the entire cross section of the atmosphere. Storms that will form on the selected area will connect to multicellular storms, also envisages the establishment of the supercell storm. A strong flow of air in the lower atmosphere, large wind shear and low height of the condensation will be conducive to the formation of tornadoes. We also expect strong wind gusts or a downburst, in which winds may reach 25-30 m / s. The threat will also be heavy rainfall, due to the high humidity of the incoming air mass. This confirms the prognostic analysis of aerological diagrams, on which we can see that there is high humidity throughout the vertical section of the atmosphere. During rain storms, we expect the strength of 15-20 mm / h, but in case of a few storms on one area (such a situation is very likely) rainfall will accumulate (up to 30-40 mm, locally 50 mm). During storms there will be hail with a diameter of 3-5 cm.


Sorry for possible mistakes in translation.

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......................................gee tons of rain and lightning with this band of storms
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Tornadoes over Poland again?



Sorry for the size of image :(
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132. MahFL
Quoting jrweatherman:
So is there anywhere in the world having below normal temps?


Australia is chilly, but I don't think below normal.

"Frost Warning
for the North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee, Central, West and South Gippsland and North East forecast districts."
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
518 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-182130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
518 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS THIS
MORNING THEN PUSH INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS TODAY WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES EACH DAY. DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT OUR OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES
EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$
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...............................................fo lks this one storm coming in from the gulf, has tons of lightning with it, stay safe out there
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.............................................look s like today is the LAST day for this rain, then we get a break for a few days..BUT...it comes back again the forecasters say
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.........................good morning folks..boomers waking me up once again lol..whats that old song..rain,rain go away come again some other day?
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If this region continues to break, watch out on the Northeast side.

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124. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TROPICAL STORM KHANUN (1207)
15:00 PM JST July 18 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In East China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Khanun (990 hPa) located at 31.9N 126.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===================
210 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 38.4N 126.8E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Overland Korean Peninsula
48 HRS: 40.6N 128.8E - Tropical Depression overland Korean Peninsula
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Good night everyone and anyone.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting BobWallace:



I can assure you, they won't.

Even those who are in the fossil fuel industry's pocket keep a count of how their mail is running.

Campaign donations are one thing. Votes count.
Every vote counts for everything no matter what. One of my HS baseball teamnate found out running for class vp. He lost by one vote and there were several recounts that still showed he lost by 1 vote.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's pointless... they'll just ignores it.



I can assure you, they won't.

Even those who are in the fossil fuel industry's pocket keep a count of how their mail is running.

Campaign donations are one thing. Votes count.
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting allancalderini:
Marginally? hope we can at least get Ernesto out of it.

I hope we get Ernesto as well, and sst's are cooler in the upper latitudes.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:
I dont exactly know, conditions are marginally favorable so something could develop.
Marginally? hope we can at least get Ernesto out of it.
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Skyepony:
How about that LBAR track for Fabio..LOL.


HurricaneHunterJoe?
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 377
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting allancalderini:
Are all of them extratropical?
I dont exactly know, conditions are marginally favorable so something could develop.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS at 168 hours is showing a wave getting out of africa and other in north atlantic
Wich you think will be Ernesto ?

A) #1
B) #2
C) neither of this options



#2
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:
Are all of them extratropical?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Record low ice albedo. Record melt off (destroyed a couple of bridges). A piece of the Peterson glacier just broke off (not as big as the chunk in 2010(?) but you could put Manhattan on it). Even the summit camp got above freezing for a few days.

Interesting times.
i know i was just fooling

i got summit camp up on my blog watchin 24 hrs a day now

faster and faster
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what kind of strange stuff


Record low ice albedo. Record melt off (destroyed a couple of bridges). A piece of the Peterson glacier just broke off (not as big as the chunk in 2010(?) but you could put Manhattan on it). Even the summit camp got above freezing for a few days.

Interesting times.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Was extremely bored so I decided to check out a ridiculously long range model and found the CFS. The first storm I saw on it was at 1044hrs, or August 27th, wouldn't that completely consume the patience of everyone here? LOL



Though, no need to worry, this is as real as Willy Wonka's factory, with oompa loompas and everything. xD


Now that would be a coincidence,as I celebrate my birthday on august 27...goodnight everyone, whoever is still on.

Dr. Masters is really turning out the new posts in the last couple of days. There was a couple days of rest, and now several in a row, all at once.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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