Historic 2012 U.S. drought: 6th greatest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:59 PM GMT on July 16, 2012

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The great drought of 2012 is upon us. The percentage area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought increased to 56% by the end of June, and ranked as the sixth largest drought since U.S. weather records began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in their monthly State of the Climate drought report on Monday. The last time more of the U.S. was in drought occurred in December 1956, with 58%. June 2012 ranked as the 10th greatest U.S. drought on record, when considering the percentage area of the U.S. in severe or greater drought (33%.)


Figure 1. June 2012 ranked in sixth place for the greatest percent area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought, since record keeping began in 1895. Graphic created from data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

The forecast: hot and dry with increasing drought
The great drought of 2012 is going to steadily worsen during the remainder of July. Recent runs of the global computer forecast models predict a continuation through the end of July of the large-scale jet stream patterns that have brought the U.S. its hot, dry summer weather. The most extreme heat will tend to be focused over the center portion of the county. That was certainly the case Monday, with temperatures near or in excess of 100° observed from South Dakota to Michigan. High temperatures near 100°F are expected in Chicago and Detroit on Tuesday, and over much of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Comparison of drought between June 2012 (top) and June 1988 (bottom) shows that drought conditions covered a similar proportion of the contiguous U.S., but the spatial patterns were different. The 2012 drought is especially intense over the Southwest U.S., but in 1988, this region experienced a very active summer monsoon season that kept the region moist. However, in 1988, the Northern Plains were much drier than in 2012. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

A multi-billion dollar drought disaster underway
Agronomists and drought experts are comparing the scale and intensity of the 2012 drought to the 1988 drought. With the forecast offering little optimism, the costs of the 2012 drought are certain to be many billions of dollars, and the disaster could be one of the top ten most expensive weather-related disasters in U.S. history. Droughts historically have been some of the costliest U.S. weather disasters. A four-year drought and locust plague from 1874 - 1877 cost $169 billion (2012 dollars), and was arguably the most expensive weather related disaster in U.S. history (see Jeffrey Lockwood's 2004 book, Locust.) The costs of the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, which displaced 2.5 million people, are incalculable. The costs of government financial assistance alone were $13 billion in 2012 dollars (Warrick, 1980.) The 1988 drought cost $78 billion (2012 dollars), the second most expensive weather disaster since 1980, behind Hurricane Katrina.

The associated heat wave of the great drought of 2012 is also a major concern. The heat waves associated with the great droughts of 1980 and 1988 killed between 7,500 - 10,000 people, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The heat waves of the 1930s are blamed for 5,000 deaths. The death toll from the 2012 heat wave is approaching 100, including 23 in Chicago, up to 19 in Wisconsin, 18 in Maryland, 17 in St. Louis, and 9 in Philadelphia. The toll will undoubtedly grow as more heat-related deaths are discovered, and as the heat continues.


Figure 3. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts.

Tornadoes kill one, injure ten in Poland
A series of rare tornadoes hit northern and western Poland over the weekend, killing one and injuring ten. At least 100 homes were destroyed, and one of the twisters measured 1 km (0.6 miles) in diameter. Tornadoes are quite rare in Poland. According to the publication, An updated estimate of tornado occurrence in Europe by Nikolai Dotzek (2003), Poland reports about two tornadoes per year, and probably has two more per year that are unreported. Thanks go to wunderground member beell for posting this link.


Video 1. Raw footage of the weekend tornadoes that hit Poland.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ackee:
How much more storms do u think will develop for the rest of the seasons ?
A 10
B 7
C 6
D 5

F. 9
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Popeyes chicken has garlic and paprika in it..with a bit of cajun spice..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17147
890. "Answer: Ocean Temperatures in the 1930's Were Unstable" What does that mean? I'm not sure how temperatures could be unstable. I read the article referenced by the about.com summary and saw nothing about unstable. Just mentioned warmer tropical Atlantic and cooler tropical Pacific.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Grothar:


Just let me know what country you are from so I can look up the word "twit" in your language. :)


Ik denk dat 'vervelend ventje' de beste vertaling is.

I'm from the netherlands.
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Warning just got canceled. I was surprised that storm produced a tornado in the first place.
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999
WFUS53 KGLD 172357
TORGLD
KSC181-180045-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0014.120717T2357Z-120718T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM MDT

* AT 553 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF BREWSTER. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN SHERMAN COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 10140 3947 10142 3947 10164 3957 10162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 322DEG 5KT 3950 10150
HAIL 1.25IN
$$
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Quoting kmanislander:


What about 91L ?
Someone said it was a test?.Hey k-man.How's life on the island?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17147
Quoting European58:


Great pictures of the dust bowl. If you haven't taken them yourself I assume it was your great great great..greatest grandson.

Woody Guthrie's Dust Pneumonia Blues:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_6GhaA0AXg



Just let me know what country you are from so I can look up the word "twit" in your language. :)
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905 washingtonian115 Where is 91L again and why was it tagged?

Yes, I know it was you who first compared 91L with Chris.
So the chiding is not being sent in your direction.

The Westernmost dot is where Invest95L became TropicalStormChris.
The dot to the east on that kinked line is where TS.Chris became HurricaneChris.
(At the positions 6hours in either direction, Chris was a TropicalStorm)
The dot to the north on the kinked line is Chris's final position as a TropicalStorm.

The lone unlabled dot is Invest 91L:
~21miles(33kilometres) farther north than where Chris became a TropicalStorm
~48miles(78kilometres) farther south than where Chris became a Hurricane

And yet there are way too many folks willing to hammer on the NHC (ATCF) for declaring an Invest in an area that has already produced a hurricane earlier this Season when the SeaSurfaceTemperatures were cooler.

YQI is Yarborough,NovaScotia :: YYT is St.Johns,NovaScotia :: CVU is Corvo,Azores
Copy&paste yqi, 39.8n55.2w, yyt, cvu, 39.5n58.0w- 38.9n56.7w- 38.3n54.7w- 38.1n52.3w- 38.2n50.2w- 38.6n47.5w- 39.4n45.6w- 40.5n43.9w, 40.5n43.9w- 41.9n42.9w- 43.3n42.8w- 44.4n43.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Since their is nothing to talk about anyone want to talk about food?.


What about 91L ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
I know I have posted this story many times, so for those you have seen it before, excuse me.

There was a story from the 1930's about a farmer trying to get a mortgage on his farm in Oklahoma. He was standing outside with the bank officer. The bank officer told him that he would have to drive out and see the farm first. The farmer replied, "No need to, its blowing by right now."

No one really knows how many people died during this time, but there have been estimates as high as 25,000 due to lung ailments. It was a tragic event.


Great pictures of the dust bowl. If you haven't taken them yourself I assume it was your great great great..greatest grandson.

Woody Guthrie's Dust Pneumonia Blues:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_6GhaA0AXg

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Since their is nothing to talk about anyone want to talk about food?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17147
I made a short blog update.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Just a note!
From the point of view of where I am about 50 miles north of the straights of Gibraltar today, in a North South line, the nearest clouds with rain are in Northern England and storms over Nigeria. A 1000 or more miles away!
A sort of a dream dry spell.
Millions of people fly here every year to lie in the sun and play Russian roulette with skin cancer.
Now I think we are playing Russian roulette with a potential desert in this area. Only about 8 days rain in the last year and now we are getting up to 120/F in the south of our area.
Almost zero humidity, today we worked on a building site with concrete etc all afternoon and not a bead of sweat on anybody,in 102/F. 50 MPH winds of course as well.
The big problem/fear now, is that its only mid July and we dont get rain till the end of September usually, if we are lucky. Forrest fires, in what forests remain.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
Quoting Tazmanian:




nevere say nevere the nhc did say it has a ch

I never said never.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

None of the reliable models [GFS, ECMWF, UKMET] develop it.




nevere say nevere the nhc did say it has a ch
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
927. etxwx
PBS had an American Experience episode on the dust bowl. Those of you with high speed internet can watch it online if interested. The timeline and general article in the special features section make for interesting reading even if you can't watch.
Surviving the Dust Bowl
I have an elderly friend (in her mid 90's) who remembers her family moving from Nebraska to Texas during the dust bowl so her dad could try to find work in the oil fields. They loaded up all the kids and a couple maiden aunts in the big truck and just headed south. They made it and eventually flourished, but it was a tough time.
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I hate seeing the drought spread throughout majority of the U.S.A. My heart goes out to those suffering in the heat and drought, I feel your pain, we still have drought going on in Texas but it is not the major drought we had last year. Unfortunately Lake Travis is 4 feet lower now than it was at this time last year because the heavy rains in Central Texas have not been in the right locations. Areas around the Lake had half an inch to inch of rain in 2 days while east of there in Williamson, Travis and Hays counties some locations had rainfall up to 7 inches which flooded Lake Austin. I would love for a tropical depression or storm come thru southern Texas and go west but those chances are slim. I hope the dry areas of the U.S.A. get relief soon. Not sure about rest of the U.S. but Texas is suppose to have normal rainfall in our near future which is good.
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Quoting allancalderini:
and here comes the 7th name storm of the eastern pacific.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM FABIO...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 775 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

None of the reliable models [GFS, ECMWF, UKMET] develop it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
and nothing for the Atlantic.
ABNT20 KNHC 172335
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We got a yellow circle!

In the east Pacific...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM FABIO...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 775 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Anyone else see a low spinning over Northern Florida?
5knots of shear over it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis. html

it looks like its elongated from North FL to over the SE Georgia Coast
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and here comes the 7th name storm of the eastern pacific.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM FABIO...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 775 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
I know I have posted this story many times, so for those you have seen it before, excuse me.

There was a story from the 1930's about a farmer trying to get a mortgage on his farm in Oklahoma. He was standing outside with the bank officer. The bank officer told him that he would have to drive out and see the farm first. The farmer replied, "No need to, its blowing by right now."

No one really knows how many people died during this time, but there have been estimates as high as 25,000 due to lung ailments. It was a tragic event.


how much of a warning did they have with these dust bowls?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I think initiating invest 91L was a mistake by HPC. They were probably testing their ability to create an invest (they are the backup to NHC) when they did it. If you notice an hour and a half later they created a test invest with lat/lon in the same general area.

invest_al912012.invest 17-Jul-2012 18:07 292
invest_al822012.invest 17-Jul-2012 19:25 653

BEGIN
HPC_ATCF
invest_al912012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207171807
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 398N, 552W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Thank you for clearing this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know I have posted this story many times, so for those you have seen it before, excuse me.

There was a story from the 1930's about a farmer trying to get a mortgage on his farm in Oklahoma. He was standing outside with the bank officer. The bank officer told him that he would have to drive out and see the farm first. The farmer replied, "No need to, its blowing by right now."

No one really knows how many people died during this time, but there have been estimates as high as 25,000 due to lung ailments. It was a tragic event.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why do you think people don't use that map?


Last time I looked its on the NOAA site..someone is using it or it wouldnt be there..
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Quoting Neapolitan:
As suspected, Marrakech, Morocco, has (unofficially for now) broken its all-time high with a reading of over 120. The thermometer is expected to rise another two degrees before the day's heating is done; if so, and if verified, that would probably set a new all-time high temperature record for the country. (FWIW, Morocco is also home of the lowest temperature ever recorded in Africa, -23.9C (-11.0 F) in Ifrane in 1935.)

hot />
		 Action: <A onclick=Quote | Ignore User


This is a real odd thing to try and quote on! The quote sign is to the right and it doesn't want to start up as normal.
Anyway, I'm a bit late on this one due to having been forced to go to work this afternoon rather than read on, on here.
Now this Marrakesh thing is a bit odd. Ive been there and its only a few hundred miles south of the Southern Mediterranean coast.
Interesting place for many reasons but from a weather point of view its got the Atlas mountains just about 40 miles to the south of it. Not to be sniffed at they are seriously high and covered in snow in the winter, ( at least when we used to get winters,) The air that is causing us to get very hot is coming from the north of the Sahara desert and has to pass over the Atlas mountains to get to Marrakesh. These mountains are probably about 12,000 feet high on average in that area, so serious record heat is passing over that height, the Canary islands with 104/F are just to the west of the Atlas mountains. All this is not normal and serious problems are going to come from it all for agriculture and people.
So Added to the GOM intense SST heat we have very high atmospheric heat at about the same latitude on the other side of the Atlantic.
Just thought I'd stick my oar in on that one.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
Quoting ncstorm:
I dont understand this map sometimes..in the GOM near the panhandle, there isnt any vorticity there but its color purple just the same..



850 mb


500 mb..

Why do you think people don't use that map?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
I dont understand this map sometimes..in the GOM near the panhandle, there isnt any vorticity there but its color purple just the same..



850 mb


500 mb..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I did a blog a last year on the dust bowl, but I deleted some time ago. It had a map of this. The trees are still there.

From US History.

President Roosevelt ordered that the Civilian Conservation Corps plant a huge belt of more than 200 million trees from Canada to Abilene, Texas, to break the wind, hold water in the soil, and hold the soil itself in place. The administration also began to educate farmers on soil conservation and anti-erosion techniques, including crop rotation, strip.......
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
I think initiating invest 91L was a mistake by HPC. They were probably testing their ability to create an invest (they are the backup to NHC) when they did it. If you notice an hour and a half later they created a test invest with lat/lon in the same general area.

invest_al912012.invest 17-Jul-2012 18:07 292
invest_al822012.invest 17-Jul-2012 19:25 653

BEGIN
HPC_ATCF
invest_al912012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207171807
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 398N, 552W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
As far as the naming of Invest 91L, the same thing happened in 2010 when the NHC went from 94L to 97L.

I wrote Max Mayfield at the time and this was his reply….

The NHC uses a numbering system for tropical cyclones (depressions, storms, and hurricanes) that starts with 01 and goes as high as needed. There is a separate numbering system for the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In fact, this system is used globally which makes it easy for modeling centers and others to grab the information and quickly understand what it refers to. Each tropical cyclone has a seven digit code. For example, the first official tropical depression that we had in the Atlantic back in May was designated AL012009. The AL refers to the Atlantic, the 01 means that it was the first tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, and the 2009 is the year. The next official tropical cyclone in the Atlantic will be AL022009.

For disturbances that are not yet declared a tropical depression, the NHC uses numbers in the 90s, such as AL972009. If AL972009 were to become the second depression of the year, for example, all associated files would be moved to AL022009. And then AL972009 could be use again. I suspect AL962009 was previously used and the data had not been cleaned out yet. There is no requirement to use the 90 number consecutively. They were initially used internally at the NHC, but the information is now made available to the world thanks to the internet.

Regards,
Max


Thanks, Geoff. I really didn't know why they skipped numbers until this. It almost deserves a cookie.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Lucky you had home movies. That must have been terrible. I don't think most people know how many years that lasted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In 2005..



ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

THE LAST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INDCIATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAD RISEN TO 948
MB...AND THAT THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED
TO 134 KT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...THERE ARE
MIXED SIGNALS ON THE STRUCTURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT THERE HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP COOLING NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE EYE
HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 125
KT BASED ON THE LAST AIRCRAFT DATA. THE CANCUN RADAR SUGGESTS AN
OUTER EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING...ALTHOUGH THE RADAR CAN NOT YET
RELIABLY SEE THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE EYE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17...JUST A LITTLE RIGHT OF 6 HR AGO.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKELY
DUE TO BETTER MODEL ANALYSES OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON THE
SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR MORE
OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS
CAUSES THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO FORECAST LESS OF A WESTWARD TURN WHILE
EMILY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES THE MODELS TO
FORECAST LANDFALL FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MOVED A LITTLE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE GUIDANCE SHIFT AND IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE INSTEAD OF THE NORTHERN EDGE. THIS CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO SOUTHERN TEXAS.

GIVEN THE COOLING TOPS AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN...A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IF AN OUTER EYEWALL IS FORMING THIS BECOMES
LESS LIKELY. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...THEN
RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOW MUCH EMILY COULD
INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF WILL DEPEND ON JUST WHAT STRUCTURE EMERGES
FROM YUCATAN...SO THERE IS A LARGER THAN NORMAL POSSIBLE ERROR ON
THE 24-48 HR INTENSITY FORECASTS. NEVERTHELESS...EMILY IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 19.4N 85.2W 125 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.5W 125 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 18/1800Z 21.8N 90.4W 90 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 19/0600Z 23.0N 93.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 23.9N 95.7W 105 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 21/1800Z 25.5N 105.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$
NNNN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Where is 91L again and why was it tagged?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17147
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
As far as the naming of Invest 91L, the same thing happened in 2010 when the NHC went from 94L to 97L.

I wrote Max Mayfield at the time and this was his reply….

The NHC uses a numbering system for tropical cyclones (depressions, storms, and hurricanes) that starts with 01 and goes as high as needed. There is a separate numbering system for the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In fact, this system is used globally which makes it easy for modeling centers and others to grab the information and quickly understand what it refers to. Each tropical cyclone has a seven digit code. For example, the first official tropical depression that we had in the Atlantic back in May was designated AL012009. The AL refers to the Atlantic, the 01 means that it was the first tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, and the 2009 is the year. The next official tropical cyclone in the Atlantic will be AL022009.

For disturbances that are not yet declared a tropical depression, the NHC uses numbers in the 90s, such as AL972009. If AL972009 were to become the second depression of the year, for example, all associated files would be moved to AL022009. And then AL972009 could be use again. I suspect AL962009 was previously used and the data had not been cleaned out yet. There is no requirement to use the 90 number consecutively. They were initially used internally at the NHC, but the information is now made available to the world thanks to the internet.

Regards,
Max


class has been dismissed!!
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Quoting Grothar:
Here are some of my favorite pictures of the Dust Bowl (and NO, they are not from my personal snapshots.)

There were hundreds of these that lasted for years.







great pics!!
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NASA brings the Delta II out of retirement to launch three Earth observing satellites.

Spaceflight Now | Breaking News | NASA gives the Delta 2 rocket a new lease on life
....
First up is OCO 2, the replacement Orbiting Carbon Observatory built after the original spacecraft was lost in a Taurus XL launch failure in 2009. The satellite did not reach orbit when the rocket's nose cone failed to separate.

The new spacecraft is scheduled to fly aboard the Delta 2 rocket in July 2014, becoming NASA's initial environmental satellite dedicated to mapping atmospheric carbon dioxide and man's impact on Earth. The space agency had tapped Taurus for the reflight but later nixed that plan when the rocket failed a second time when the nose cone again didn't separate on the Glory satellite launch last year.

The Delta will insert the observatory into a 438-mile polar orbit to collect about 8 million measurements every 16 days to create maps showing global distribution of carbon dioxide.

Next will be SMAP, the Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite, set to launch in October 2014. Outfitted with a radiometer and synthetic aperture radar, the craft will orbit 423 miles above to Earth make global measurements of soil moisture to improve flood predictions and drought monitoring.

Then comes JPSS 1, the first civilian weather observatory in the Joint Polar Satellite System launching in November 2016. The craft will be operated by NOAA in a 512-mile-high orbit to take the planet's pulse daily for global forecasting, providing the ingredients needed for long-term weather outlooks.
....
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Quoting Grothar:
Here are some of my favorite pictures of the Dust Bowl (and NO, they are not from my personal snapshots.)

There were hundreds of these that lasted for years.





those look scary.Imagine that coming at you at 60-70mph.Whoa.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17147

GeoffreyWPB


There is no requirement to use the 90 number consecutively. They were initially used internally at the NHC, but the information is now made available to the world thanks to the internet


Thanks for this information!

CRS
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Here are some of my favorite pictures of the Dust Bowl (and NO, they are not from my personal snapshots.)

There were hundreds of these that lasted for years.





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Quoting ackee:
How much more storms do u think will develop for the rest of the seasons ?
A 10
B 7
C 6
D 5



E 3
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As far as the naming of Invest 91L, the same thing happened in 2010 when the NHC went from 94L to 97L.

I wrote Max Mayfield at the time and this was his reply….

The NHC uses a numbering system for tropical cyclones (depressions, storms, and hurricanes) that starts with 01 and goes as high as needed. There is a separate numbering system for the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In fact, this system is used globally which makes it easy for modeling centers and others to grab the information and quickly understand what it refers to. Each tropical cyclone has a seven digit code. For example, the first official tropical depression that we had in the Atlantic back in May was designated AL012009. The AL refers to the Atlantic, the 01 means that it was the first tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, and the 2009 is the year. The next official tropical cyclone in the Atlantic will be AL022009.

For disturbances that are not yet declared a tropical depression, the NHC uses numbers in the 90s, such as AL972009. If AL972009 were to become the second depression of the year, for example, all associated files would be moved to AL022009. And then AL972009 could be use again. I suspect AL962009 was previously used and the data had not been cleaned out yet. There is no requirement to use the 90 number consecutively. They were initially used internally at the NHC, but the information is now made available to the world thanks to the internet.

Regards,
Max
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Lesson #1: All you need to know about this forum to understand some of the people here.

This forum for the past three weeks:

"I'm bored. We need an invest."
"This place is slow. We need an invest."
"We need an invest. What is the NHC waiting for?"
"When are we going to get an invest? We need an invest."
"I would really love to track a single little invest, even one that has no chance. We need an invest ASAP."
"I can't stand summer! We need an invest!"
"Things need to pick up before El Nino arrives. We need an invest now!"
"We really need an invest."
"We need an invest."
"We need an invest."
"We need an invest..."
"What's wrong with the folks at the NHC??!?"

This forum since 91L was declared a few hours ago:

"The NHC numbered that?!"
"Wait--that's an invest?"
"Is this a joke? Why would the NHC call that an invest?"
"That invest has no chance. Why did the NHC give it a number?"
"What's wrong with the folks at the NHC??!?"

;-)


Thanks for putting it in perspective, Nea -- It was a hard day and your post was perfect for making me laugh outloud at how silly we can all be sometimes!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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