Historic 2012 U.S. drought: 6th greatest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:59 PM GMT on July 16, 2012

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The great drought of 2012 is upon us. The percentage area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought increased to 56% by the end of June, and ranked as the sixth largest drought since U.S. weather records began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in their monthly State of the Climate drought report on Monday. The last time more of the U.S. was in drought occurred in December 1956, with 58%. June 2012 ranked as the 10th greatest U.S. drought on record, when considering the percentage area of the U.S. in severe or greater drought (33%.)


Figure 1. June 2012 ranked in sixth place for the greatest percent area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought, since record keeping began in 1895. Graphic created from data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

The forecast: hot and dry with increasing drought
The great drought of 2012 is going to steadily worsen during the remainder of July. Recent runs of the global computer forecast models predict a continuation through the end of July of the large-scale jet stream patterns that have brought the U.S. its hot, dry summer weather. The most extreme heat will tend to be focused over the center portion of the county. That was certainly the case Monday, with temperatures near or in excess of 100° observed from South Dakota to Michigan. High temperatures near 100°F are expected in Chicago and Detroit on Tuesday, and over much of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Comparison of drought between June 2012 (top) and June 1988 (bottom) shows that drought conditions covered a similar proportion of the contiguous U.S., but the spatial patterns were different. The 2012 drought is especially intense over the Southwest U.S., but in 1988, this region experienced a very active summer monsoon season that kept the region moist. However, in 1988, the Northern Plains were much drier than in 2012. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

A multi-billion dollar drought disaster underway
Agronomists and drought experts are comparing the scale and intensity of the 2012 drought to the 1988 drought. With the forecast offering little optimism, the costs of the 2012 drought are certain to be many billions of dollars, and the disaster could be one of the top ten most expensive weather-related disasters in U.S. history. Droughts historically have been some of the costliest U.S. weather disasters. A four-year drought and locust plague from 1874 - 1877 cost $169 billion (2012 dollars), and was arguably the most expensive weather related disaster in U.S. history (see Jeffrey Lockwood's 2004 book, Locust.) The costs of the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, which displaced 2.5 million people, are incalculable. The costs of government financial assistance alone were $13 billion in 2012 dollars (Warrick, 1980.) The 1988 drought cost $78 billion (2012 dollars), the second most expensive weather disaster since 1980, behind Hurricane Katrina.

The associated heat wave of the great drought of 2012 is also a major concern. The heat waves associated with the great droughts of 1980 and 1988 killed between 7,500 - 10,000 people, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The heat waves of the 1930s are blamed for 5,000 deaths. The death toll from the 2012 heat wave is approaching 100, including 23 in Chicago, up to 19 in Wisconsin, 18 in Maryland, 17 in St. Louis, and 9 in Philadelphia. The toll will undoubtedly grow as more heat-related deaths are discovered, and as the heat continues.


Figure 3. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts.

Tornadoes kill one, injure ten in Poland
A series of rare tornadoes hit northern and western Poland over the weekend, killing one and injuring ten. At least 100 homes were destroyed, and one of the twisters measured 1 km (0.6 miles) in diameter. Tornadoes are quite rare in Poland. According to the publication, An updated estimate of tornado occurrence in Europe by Nikolai Dotzek (2003), Poland reports about two tornadoes per year, and probably has two more per year that are unreported. Thanks go to wunderground member beell for posting this link.


Video 1. Raw footage of the weekend tornadoes that hit Poland.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Ossqss:
Wow Mr. Masters, you are probably disappointed that you could not use the term unprecedented again ( the word you were trained to use in Denver a few years ago ).

Kinda hard to change those old limited measurement methods and samples from years ago and compare them to today's plentiful local info, no? Don't worry, we have a few months to embellish "the cause" further.

You can make lot's of money selling access to aggregated personal weather station reporting/information over the internet in today's world.

You proved that theory.

So, how are those climate models doing with cloud formation coding? Tell us the truth, eh?

Was there a logical point to any of this?
You might find it hard to believe, but you'd have a hard time finding scientists that actually want to report on these things this way. I strongly doubt that Dr. Masters is "disappointed" when it isn't the worst of the worst. I sorta think that such innuendos are a little silly, if not mean-spirited.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it should say

Quoting allancalderini:
nothing new


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook is a qoute with hrs dipiction altered for comic relief


000
ABNT20 KNHC 162338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 240 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

But that may turn out to be a lie..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32523
Quoting JLPR2:
Not much to speak of tonight...

And while this mass of dry air persists over the CAtl any TW will have a hard time trying anything.



I agree with you JLPR2..
I'm keeping more of a wary eye towards a Homebrew/Carribean storm with SST's the way they are..Bathwater..
Well I was goin' to post the current SST's but can't seem to locate where I used to get them from..
Last time I saw them posted the Carribean and GOM temp's were plenty hot..
:)
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it should say

Quoting allancalderini:
nothing new


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook is a quote with hrs dipiction altered for comic relief


000
ABNT20 KNHC 162338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 240 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54841
Quoting allancalderini:
nothing new


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 162338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


NHC must be bored as well...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow Mr. Masters, you are probably disappointed that you could not use the term unprecedented again ( the word you were trained to use in Denver a few years ago ).

Kinda hard to change those old limited measurement methods and samples from years ago and compare them to today's plentiful local info, no? Don't worry, we have a few months to embellish "the cause" further.

You can make lot's of money selling access to aggregated personal weather station reporting/information over the internet in today's world.

You proved that theory.

So, how are those climate models doing with cloud formation coding? Tell us the truth, eh?





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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The Cooler waters have come further south, YES. But the El Nino is gradually building in, and the Cool ring down the Pacific coast has been broken apart and warmer waters is heading toward the west coast. The Negative PDO is slowly coming apart... It shall stick around for about another month until El Nino become more evident, and then will flip the switch to Positive, and El Nino will be in Full Swing.


OMG El Nino is probably among those things I hate the most!!! Boring boring boring and DRYYYYYYYYYYYY :(
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At 7:21 PM EDT Monday 16 July 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Humidex advisory
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
The latest stretch of above normal temperatures in Southern Ontario
is forecast to continue for one more day.

Temperatures generally climbed into the low thirties today but are
expected to soar into the 33 to 37 range on Tuesday. This combined
with high humidity values has resulted in a humidex advisory for most
of southern and Eastern Ontario for Tuesday.

A cold front is expected to gradually surge southwards through the
area on Tuesday. Although this will bring general relief by Wednesday
it is also expected to generate scattered thunderstorms. There is a
slight risk that some of these thunderstorms could become severe.

During times of high heat and humidity, the public, especially those
who are susceptible to heat stress, are advised to stay in an air
conditioned place when possible or seek shady areas, drink Plenty of
water and limit physical outdoor activity.

High humidex Tuesday.


------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==

Hot and humid air over the Windsor and Sarnia areas produced humidex
values near 40 today. Temperatures are expected to increase for
Tuesday as this hot and humid air surges northeastwards across most
of southern and Eastern Ontario. Humidex values ranging from 40 to 45
are expected. General relief should come in the form of a cold front
late Tuesday bringing somewhat cooler and less humid conditions for
Wednesday with the possible exception of Extreme Southwestern
Ontario.

Issued by Environment Canada at 4:01 PM EDT Monday 16 July 2012.
The next statement will be issued at 4.00 AM Tuesday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Forecast of thunderstorm potential.

Tonight..Isolated thunderstorms are likely for regions adjacent to
Lake Superior eastwards to the Quebec border. They may reach Northern
Lake Huron and Georgian Bay overnight. There is a slight risk some
Of these thunderstorms may become severe mainly due to heavy
downpours and large hail.

Tuesday..Scattered thunderstorms are likely across the Algoma-Nickel
Belt in the morning spreading into Southern Ontario in the afternoon
and evening. There is a slight risk that some of these thunderstorms
may become severe with large hail, gusty winds and torrential
downpours being the main threats.

Wednesday..Isolated thunderstorms are expected over Southwestern
Ontario. Some of these thunderstorms may reach severe limits due
To large hail, gusty winds and torrential downpours.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
A thunderstorm is defined as severe if it produces one or more of the
following:

- wind gusts of 90 km/h or greater.
- hail of 2 centimetres in diameter or greater.
- rainfall amounts of 50 millimetres or greater in one hour or less.
- a tornado.

Note: this forecast is issued twice daily from May 1 to September 30.

This is an advisory that high humidex values are expected in these
regions. Monitor weather conditions and listen for updated
statements.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA.

End

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54841
136. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Khanun is looking nice.



Once it shed the long tail it become a nice little TS.
I'm wondering if the tail will try something.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Someone needs to go check SST anomaly maps and the latest update from the CPC. :P

Seriously, if anything, the PDO has became stronger and waters in the equatorial Pacific have cooled over the past 2-3 weeks. It used to be 0.7C but is now down to 0.4C.


Thanks
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Signing off...A blessed night to all..:)
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As a personal observation, the fact that there are so many parallel contrails (ship or/and plane) can be explained by the clockwork like / southern motion of moisture and winds combined with the amounts of traffic in that region. As shown at http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeswestpacus. html at 30 frames animated and zoomed in.

I'm sure that if someone had the time they could even match up the location of the trail generation points with the positioning of any registered air / ship traffic thanks to the UTC time stamp.

A quick search of "contrails and the impact on pacific cloud formation" gives a person a lot of interesting information, as does substituting "ship tracks" for contrails.

From a research paper entitled The use of Meteorological Data to Improve Contrail
Detection in Thermal Imagery over Ireland
from NASA's publication repository site "Aircraft induced contrails have been found to have a net warming influence on the climate system, with strong regional dependence."

Also, an interesting paper from the FAA and an old military thesis from 1988 (which, now that I think about, wxmod might have linked to that one before. It reads familiar.)

Wxmod, no one is saying that there are no artificially created clouds in the sat images you show or that we shouldn't be demanding answers as to their influence on both weather and the ecosystems involved. I think it's the occasionally shrill sales pitch that grates on people's nerves. Like earlier today, I don't think anyone balked at the facts presented, including that ship exhaust is a nasty unregulated and unmonitored ticking time bomb.

What got under some people's skin, at least mine, was when you started editorializing along the lines of 'look at this massive geoengineering project' and present that leap of a statement as fact. As if there was something unexplained about what we are seeing when in reality it's pretty roundly explained. Just maybe ignored because it's so far away. Like those massive garbage patches. But that's just my take on it, maybe I'm missing the point.
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Tropical Storm Khanun is looking nice.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32523
Few nasty thunderstorms here in Mid TN....Again..
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hottest day of the summer so far forecasted tomorrow

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:00 PM EDT Monday 16 July 2012
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.82 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 82.2°F
Dewpoint: 61.9°F
Humidity: 50 %
Wind: WSW 8 mph
Humidex: 91
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54841
129. JLPR2
Not much to speak of tonight...

And while this mass of dry air persists over the CAtl any TW will have a hard time trying anything.

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Quoting Methurricanes:
is that a ULL in NW FL/ East of St Augustine or a LLC?

Upper level low that has a weak reflection in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32523
is that a ULL in NW FL/ East of St Augustine or a LLC?
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am out for the night




goood bye
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115352
125. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:





why not you mine your own business


and i was not being harsh


You're not being harsh you are being rude...
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Only Three areas of severe Thunderstorm's in the Conus that I see right now..

One large area of Severe thunderstorm warning and watch in and around Rapid City,SD
Rapid City,SD

Thomasville,NC

EDIT: Tried to direct link to the weather locations I spoke of above...didn't work...BUT where it shows "enter location or zip" just type in the cities I mentioned...
Sorry... :)

Abbeville,SC
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All in all you are just another brick in a very thick wall.
Cheers!
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Quoting HurricaneDean07: PDO Turning Positive in the Pacific, and with El nino appearing in the EPAC... This season is gonna come to an extreme hault. New numbers: 11-5-3

Maybe. I will stick to my prediction of 14/8/3..Nino does not make it in time for the peak...............................I should rephrase what I said. El-Nino,s effects on the atmosphere will not occur at the peak of hurricane season...There very well may be an official statement from NOAA that El-Nino is occurring when Sept rolls around.
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Quoting wxmod (77):
This is a satellite image taken out over the Pacific Ocean TODAY.
Good example of how contrails are becoming prevalent in the upper troposphere. Those contrails are a positive feedback for warming, as there is more reflected downward radiation than is blocked from the surface.
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119. wxmod
Quoting Minnemike:
no, we know what they are, shipping contrails. you pose the question as if it's absurd to think you're a conspiracy theorist, and then state there is no shred of evidence about them. wow, that's an impressive 180 yes, you are.

with NO effort, i found this Huffington Post article, which not only debunks your claim that it's hidden from public, but the article itself cites NASA releasing these images before. now, nowhere have i stated that these are not problems, or that awareness shouldn't exist.. it is Important that these are understood and I agree that they pose an issue of increased albedo in our atmosphere. but don't pretend that nobody is looking into this, or a conspiracy to remove information about them exists. that is the annoying part, imo... that's when folks will start poking fun and talking about tinfoil hats... which is EXACTLY what i mean about conspiracy theories getting in the way of dealing with real issues.
back to lurkdom..


Actually, Minnemike, I have read many, many articles from major news organizations that talk about ship pollution and the low quality of the fuel causing major health problems for the world. Another tidbit, this low grade fuel is blended with toxic waste as a disposal technique. It's called fuel blending. Look it up. Now why do you suppose that the NASA website claims ship emissions are not a major pollution concern, as is stated in the article you referenced. That claim is totally erroneous and has been absolutely proven wrong. Further, there is no serious analysis of the content of particulates in ship exhaust.
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
928 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-052-060-062-065-GMZ850-856 -170300-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT TO 20 NM-CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEE-
LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 20 NM-
928 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.NOW...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED AROUND CEDAR KEY AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OFF LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES OUT TO 20 MILES. OTHER STORMS
WERE OVER AREAS AROUND BROOKSVILLE AND THE GREEN SWAMP. FARTHER SOUTH
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER CAPTIVA ISLAND...CAPE CORAL AND LOWER
CHARLOTTE HARBOR. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
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Quoting Minnemike:
and wxmod... i sincerely hope you can identify the difference between cloud streets and contrails. you Will see both at the same time in most circumstances, given that atmospheric conditions promote the contrails... the same conditions that promote advection cloud streets.

the images you show do have contrails, but there are far more parallel lines caused by natural cloud formation. just a reminder..


Its much easier to differentiate between cloud "streets" (natural low level convergence and convection) and smoke trails from ships (don't move fast and are persistent in stable marine environments) and contrails (move fast and have varying lifespans depending on the stability, humidity and vertical velocity of the flow aloft) if you look at satellite animations. I won't comment on the conspiracy theories that abound.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54841
.
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Edit:Charts I posted are now obsolete..
Cleaning up my mess.. :)
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and wxmod... i sincerely hope you can identify the difference between cloud streets and contrails. you Will see both at the same time in most circumstances, given that atmospheric conditions promote the contrails... the same conditions that promote advection cloud streets.

the images you show do have contrails, but there are far more parallel lines caused by natural cloud formation. just a reminder..
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110. wxmod
Enhanced Pacific satellite photo near Russia today. MODIS

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Quoting wxmod:
This is a satellite image taken out over the Pacific Ocean TODAY. There are a lot of opinions about what these straight line clouds are.
no, we know what they are, shipping contrails.
Quoting wxmod:
Some people suggest that I am a conspiracy theorist for even bringing them to your attention. Now why do you suppose that showing you a satellite photo has anything to do with conspiracy theories? One thing is for sure. You will never find one shred of evidence online that these clouds have been studied by any government, or that their content has been analyzed.
you pose the question as if it's absurd to think you're a conspiracy theorist, and then state there is no shred of evidence about them. wow, that's an impressive 180
Quoting wxmod:
Now why do you suppose that is? Looks to me like these trails of something are causing the climate to change. Don't you think NASA would have complete spectrographic analysis of the trails, or that NOAA would send out boats to collect air samples. I can't even find a photo on line that shows one of these features. If there ain't no conspiracy here, someone is sure trying to make it appear that there is.
yes, you are.

with NO effort, i found this Huffington Post article, which not only debunks your claim that it's hidden from public, but the article itself cites NASA releasing these images before. now, nowhere have i stated that these are not problems, or that awareness shouldn't exist.. it is Important that these are understood and I agree that they pose an issue of increased albedo in our atmosphere. but don't pretend that nobody is looking into this, or a conspiracy to remove information about them exists. that is the annoying part, imo... that's when folks will start poking fun and talking about tinfoil hats... which is EXACTLY what i mean about conspiracy theories getting in the way of dealing with real issues.
back to lurkdom..
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850 mb

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16039
107. wxmod
Lovely enhanced view of the empty and peaceful Pacific Ocean. MODIS satellite image today. 1200 miles from side to side of the photo.

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106. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL STORM KHANUN (1207)
9:00 AM JST July 17 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Khanun (992 hPa) located at 26.1N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===================
270 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 31.0N 126.9E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - South of Juju Island
48 HRS: 37.5N 124.8E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) -Yellow Sea
72 HRS: 41.3N 124.2E - Tropical Depression in District of northeastern China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46142
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The Cooler waters have come further south, YES. But the El Nino is gradually building in, and the Cool ring down the Pacific coast has been broken apart and warmer waters is heading toward the west coast. The Negative PDO is slowly coming apart... It shall stick around for about another month until El Nino become more evident, and then will flip the switch to Positive, and El Nino will be in Full Swing.


Daily SOI
8 Jul 2012 6.52
9 Jul 2012 5.05
10 Jul 2012 6.46
11 Jul 2012 12.25
12 Jul 2012 18.22
13 Jul 2012 15.82
14 Jul 2012 8.92
15 Jul 2012 20.50
16 Jul 2012 8.49

90 day avg SOI -3.18
30 day avg SOI -6.65
Those aren't signs of established EL NINO ?

Nine days in a row WITH positive SOI
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
PDO Turning Positive in the Pacific, and with El nino appearing in the EPAC... This season is gonna come to an extreme hault.

New numbers:
11-5-3
Maybe. I will stick to my prediction of 14/8/3..Nino does not make it in time for the peak.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Issues work their way all the way to the Gulf of Mexico, as well:
http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/07 /saltwater_wedge_moving_up_the.html

I'm back on the Mississippi River desk starting tomorrow.... my favorite.


Very interesting
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Quoting Tazmanian:



why even post that when its 3hrs old and olny updates evere 3 hrs


No need to be so harsh Taz ...
Why don't you post it if you can do better?
I'm not trying to make you mad I'm just wondering why your so harsh on him/her.. :)
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Just to play a little bit of devil's advocate, so to speak, there's no questioning the data in Fig. 1 as that's purely measuring weather/soil/data, unless the standards for moderate drought have changed, and I don't believe they have. On the optimistic side though, if there is one, I did hear on TWC today that the percentage in SEVERE drought wasn't near the top 10, so we have hope at least, if it rains.
.
Fig. 2 though, and all related charts I take with a grain of salt as they do a bad job of combining extreme weather events and dollar value. It's more than converting yesterday's dollar value to today's, in 2012. There's also a lot more insured property, more insurance offered, more population near the coast...these charts that measure damage by insured value only aren't worth much imo, even those that take into account uninsured damages aren't worth much unless they incorporate the shifting populace. Charts in Fig. 2 also don't take into account extreme weather events over sparsely populated areas. Not to say that the charts would otherwise be different, but idk. Just as one of many examples, the 1926 Miami hurricane gets no place on the list by the whimsy that there happened to be few people and structures...whereas if this weather event happened today, it goes from squadoosh to #1 on the list.
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100. wxmod
Enhanced Pacific satellite image today. 1200 miles from side to side of the image.

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Quoting OldLeatherneck:
A few weeks ago I drove across the NE corner of Louisiana and saw some very pitiful looking corn fields.
I drove from Texas to North Carolina over the July 4th holiday taking almost all back roads (my favorite travel mode). Central Tennessee had to be the worst. It literally looked nearly as bad as Texas last year.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What's the big deal? They were only off by a measly 70 knots.

They got it fixed by the fourth advisory, lol.


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2002

FROM 30 KT TO 95 KT IN 18 HOURS...AND UP FROM 55 KT IN JUST 6
HOURS...NOW THAT IS RAPID INTENSIFICATION. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED A CLASSICAL PINHOLE EYE ON INFRARED
IMAGERY...AND LOOKS BETTER WITH EVERY NEW IMAGE. AT 0630Z KGWC GAVE
ELIDA A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T5.0...OR 90 KT. THROWING OUT THE
DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...A MORE RECENT ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS T6.0...OR
115 KT. SINCE WITH RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEMS THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE CAN LEAD THE WINDS...I HAVE...PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY...
RAISED THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY TO 95 KT. I CERTAINLY WOULD LOVE TO
HAVE HAD AN AIRPLANE OUT THERE TO VERIFY THESE NUMBERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ELIDA IS SOUTH OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK FORECAST SIMPLY
UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

IF CLIMATOLOGY HOLDS...THE RAPID STRENGTHENING PERIOD SHOULD SOON
END. WHILE OSCILLATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
COMMON...ELIDA HAS AT LEAST 48 HOURS OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 12.4N 104.4W 95 KTS
12HR VT 24/1800Z 12.6N 106.7W 115 KTS
24HR VT 25/0600Z 12.8N 109.3W 120 KTS
36HR VT 25/1800Z 13.0N 111.8W 120 KTS
48HR VT 26/0600Z 13.5N 114.5W 110 KTS
72HR VT 27/0600Z 14.5N 119.0W 100 KTS


NNNN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32523
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT IS NOW A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION....ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. THE SYSTEM
IS LARGE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW.
THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOUR OR LESS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND SHIFOR AND THE INTENSITY TREND
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH THE LIMITED VISIBLE
IMAGES WHILE QUIKSCAT IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12 BUT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF
DOUGLAS IS ALSO STEERING THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST. BECAUSE THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN
ANTICIPATED.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 11.6N 98.8W 30 KTS
12HR VT 24/0000Z 11.8N 100.5W 40 KTS
24HR VT 24/1200Z 12.5N 103.0W 50 KTS
36HR VT 25/0000Z 13.0N 106.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 25/1200Z 14.0N 109.5W 70 KTS
72HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 115.5W 75 KTS


NNNN

What's the big deal? They were only off by a measly 70 knots.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
PDO Turning Positive in the Pacific, and with El nino appearing in the EPAC... This season is gonna come to an extreme hault.

New numbers:
11-5-3


15-7-4
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I forgot, What does the warming of the Bay of Guinea trigger? Because its warming...
The "wave train" axis being farther south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Hurricane Elida, 2002... It went from 30kts to 120kts in 24 hours... Now that is RI:

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT IS NOW A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION....ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. THE SYSTEM
IS LARGE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW.
THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOUR OR LESS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND SHIFOR AND THE INTENSITY TREND
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH THE LIMITED VISIBLE
IMAGES WHILE QUIKSCAT IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12 BUT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF
DOUGLAS IS ALSO STEERING THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST. BECAUSE THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN
ANTICIPATED.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 11.6N 98.8W 30 KTS
12HR VT 24/0000Z 11.8N 100.5W 40 KTS
24HR VT 24/1200Z 12.5N 103.0W 50 KTS
36HR VT 25/0000Z 13.0N 106.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 25/1200Z 14.0N 109.5W 70 KTS
72HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 115.5W 75 KTS


NNNN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32523

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.