Historic 2012 U.S. drought: 6th greatest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:59 PM GMT on July 16, 2012

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The great drought of 2012 is upon us. The percentage area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought increased to 56% by the end of June, and ranked as the sixth largest drought since U.S. weather records began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in their monthly State of the Climate drought report on Monday. The last time more of the U.S. was in drought occurred in December 1956, with 58%. June 2012 ranked as the 10th greatest U.S. drought on record, when considering the percentage area of the U.S. in severe or greater drought (33%.)


Figure 1. June 2012 ranked in sixth place for the greatest percent area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought, since record keeping began in 1895. Graphic created from data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

The forecast: hot and dry with increasing drought
The great drought of 2012 is going to steadily worsen during the remainder of July. Recent runs of the global computer forecast models predict a continuation through the end of July of the large-scale jet stream patterns that have brought the U.S. its hot, dry summer weather. The most extreme heat will tend to be focused over the center portion of the county. That was certainly the case Monday, with temperatures near or in excess of 100° observed from South Dakota to Michigan. High temperatures near 100°F are expected in Chicago and Detroit on Tuesday, and over much of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Comparison of drought between June 2012 (top) and June 1988 (bottom) shows that drought conditions covered a similar proportion of the contiguous U.S., but the spatial patterns were different. The 2012 drought is especially intense over the Southwest U.S., but in 1988, this region experienced a very active summer monsoon season that kept the region moist. However, in 1988, the Northern Plains were much drier than in 2012. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

A multi-billion dollar drought disaster underway
Agronomists and drought experts are comparing the scale and intensity of the 2012 drought to the 1988 drought. With the forecast offering little optimism, the costs of the 2012 drought are certain to be many billions of dollars, and the disaster could be one of the top ten most expensive weather-related disasters in U.S. history. Droughts historically have been some of the costliest U.S. weather disasters. A four-year drought and locust plague from 1874 - 1877 cost $169 billion (2012 dollars), and was arguably the most expensive weather related disaster in U.S. history (see Jeffrey Lockwood's 2004 book, Locust.) The costs of the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, which displaced 2.5 million people, are incalculable. The costs of government financial assistance alone were $13 billion in 2012 dollars (Warrick, 1980.) The 1988 drought cost $78 billion (2012 dollars), the second most expensive weather disaster since 1980, behind Hurricane Katrina.

The associated heat wave of the great drought of 2012 is also a major concern. The heat waves associated with the great droughts of 1980 and 1988 killed between 7,500 - 10,000 people, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The heat waves of the 1930s are blamed for 5,000 deaths. The death toll from the 2012 heat wave is approaching 100, including 23 in Chicago, up to 19 in Wisconsin, 18 in Maryland, 17 in St. Louis, and 9 in Philadelphia. The toll will undoubtedly grow as more heat-related deaths are discovered, and as the heat continues.


Figure 3. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts.

Tornadoes kill one, injure ten in Poland
A series of rare tornadoes hit northern and western Poland over the weekend, killing one and injuring ten. At least 100 homes were destroyed, and one of the twisters measured 1 km (0.6 miles) in diameter. Tornadoes are quite rare in Poland. According to the publication, An updated estimate of tornado occurrence in Europe by Nikolai Dotzek (2003), Poland reports about two tornadoes per year, and probably has two more per year that are unreported. Thanks go to wunderground member beell for posting this link.


Video 1. Raw footage of the weekend tornadoes that hit Poland.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


No pickles.I am in a bit of a pickle arent i ?

The saltater vinegar solution tastes like it could clean a stove.
Its gonna take some real courage to gargle this for more than 2 seconds.
You are braver than me. I would hop out to the store to buy the pickles, if I was ever caught without them (God Forbid!)

Edit: Try adding sugar, like you are pickling your own cucumbers. Then it will be palatable.

Double edit: It is better if you use cider vinegar rather than white, if you are concocting your own solution.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't think we'll see anything like 1997..
vs
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SOI value Daily

11.33

30 days avg. SOI

-5.98

90 days avg. SOI

-3.21

With this value we have 10 days with positive SOI
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Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:


I don't see why we -wouldn't- see something very close to 1997 for the Atlantic this year.

Other than -wishcasting- I just don't it.
Are you saying that I'm wishcasting?.The El nino that year started in the spring months and then rapidly intensify.Also notice how we had a warm PDO then compared to the cold PDO that is now.I don't think this El nino will be anything like that.Time will tell.
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Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:


I don't see why we -wouldn't- see something very close to 1997 for the Atlantic this year.

Other than -wishcasting- I just don't it.


I was in that camp too as I thought surely by now we would have seen a break in this ridge across the c Atlantic. I mean look at how low the ITCZ is right now.

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THis cyclone probability graphic from the NHC is rather confusing. there is an area of strong cyclone probability in the central atlantic on this graphic which by all accounts looks impossible. conditions in the whole tropical atlantic is not conducive for tropical development so this graphic is misleading
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't think we'll see anything like 1997..


I don't see why we -wouldn't- see something very close to 1997 for the Atlantic this year.

Other than -wishcasting- I just don't see why not.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
As suspected, Marrakech, Morocco, has (unofficially for now) broken its all-time high with a reading of over 120. The thermometer is expected to rise another two degrees before the day's heating is done; if so, and if verified, that would probably set a new all-time high temperature record for the country. (FWIW, Morocco is also home of the lowest temperature ever recorded in Africa, -23.9C (-11.0 F) in Ifrane in 1935.)

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Amazing to see it so hot at elevation 1529'.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Rainbow from the air, near Charlotte NC Friday July 13
Brudiful(beautiful)
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Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:


Funny, I was just thinking of this very thing.

Also, to add, we also developed a long pipeline to carry oil across half a continent and across mountain ranges...so if they -really- wanted to do what you're suggesting, they probably could accomplish it.


It can be done



Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9645
As suspected, Marrakech, Morocco, has (unofficially for now) broken its all-time high with a reading of over 120. The thermometer is expected to rise another two degrees before the day's heating is done; if so, and if verified, that would probably set a new all-time high temperature record for the country. (FWIW, Morocco is also home of the lowest temperature ever recorded in Africa, -23.9C (-11.0 F) in Ifrane in 1935.)

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		<div class= Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Rainbow from the air, near Charlotte NC Friday July 13
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting ncstorm:


well luckily the heat wave wont be as severe for us on the east coast like earlier if you should lose power again..we are supposed to be in the 80's come this weekend..below climo due to the trough sitting off the east coast..I dont mind fall coming earlier myself..the heat can kick rocks..
After going through this 12 month period of above average temps I need(and so does everyone else around the Globe) a break.
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Quoting LargoFl:
its too bad this country cannot build a nationwide pipeline, to pump excess water from area's that have too much water, to those area's that badly need the water, especially those states that supply us with our grains and food stuffs huh, probably will never happen, but then..we did create and build a national interstate highway system,with so many out of work why cant we do that?


Funny, I was just thinking of this very thing.

Also, to add, we also developed a long pipeline to carry oil across half a continent and across mountain ranges...so if they -really- wanted to do what you're suggesting, they probably could accomplish it.
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Quoting spathy:


And if they are garlic pickles even better :O)


you should try garlic cucumbers as well with sea salt..DELICIOUS for a summer snack..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16021
Quoting washingtonian115:
I have thunderstorms in my forecast as well for at least three days.We could see some server ones on Wens with damaging winds and hail.Not looking forward to that.I'm having flash backs of having no power again.


well luckily the heat wave wont be as severe for us on the east coast like earlier if you should lose power again..we are supposed to be in the 80's come this weekend..below climo due to the trough sitting off the east coast..I dont mind fall coming earlier myself..the heat can kick rocks..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16021
Quoting AussieStorm:

I always thought the worse the drought the more costly it was. The Mississippi flood of last year was only $2-4 billion? They had to open a level that flooded a huge area of farm land and it also swamped many towns, made that farmland useless for decades.

Actually, that farmland is likely incredibly rich now, due to the silt and new soil dropped in by the flood. Remember, most of the Mississippi River valley is so fertile because of the periodic flooding.
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Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:
I see the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season being somewhat similar to the 1997 Atlantic season - in both years there was quite a bit of activity early - before Aug 1st (although 2012's was a bit earlier), and then the rest of the season was pretty quiet. The 1997 season also had the harbinger of an upcoming El Nino event, just like the 2012 season.

As mentioned before, I can almost guarantee at least one Nor' easter for this upcoming winter that produces a significant high tide event along the middle Atlantic coast. That is one thing that has been highly consistent with El Nino winters around here.


Sorry I meant to plus this comment but accidently hit the minus button. I don't think this season will be like 1997 as this El-Nino won't be that strong but we can expect a strengthening phase to begin over the coming weeks that will ultimately put the enso index past the 1C range come September.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
857 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...


CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS DIPPED SOUTH OF ECFL
THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 MPH...EXCEPT
NEAR THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BUT
REMAINS PINNED NEAR THE COAST. LATEST KXMR SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF
1.85 INCHES AND A TEMPERATURE AT 500 MB OF -8.9C. STEERING FLOW FOR
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...THIS WOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR STORMS LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS
EVENING
. A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SHOULD PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LIFT TO VALIDATE THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA
FOR LATER TODAY. PRIMARY THREATS REMAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH
MOST ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF MONDAY READINGS.
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Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:
I see the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season being somewhat similar to the 1997 Atlantic season - in both years there was quite a bit of activity early - before Aug 1st (although 2012's was a bit earlier), and then the rest of the season was pretty quiet. The 1997 season also had the harbinger of an upcoming El Nino event, just like the 2012 season.

As mentioned before, I can almost guarantee at least one Nor' easter for this upcoming winter that produces a significant high tide event along the middle Atlantic coast. That is one thing that has been highly consistent with El Nino winters around here.
I don't think we'll see anything like 1997..
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CMC, Euro & GFS have the A-B high becoming the Ireland-Mex high after 48 hrs. Recurve reduction if a CV wave kicked up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season being somewhat similar to the 1997 Atlantic season - in both years there was quite a bit of activity early - before Aug 1st (although 2012's was a bit earlier), and then the rest of the season was pretty quiet. The 1997 season also had the harbinger of an upcoming El Nino event, just like the 2012 season.

As mentioned before, I can almost guarantee at least one Nor' easter for this upcoming winter that produces a significant high tide event along the middle Atlantic coast. That is one thing that has been highly consistent with El Nino winters around here.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


No pickles.I am in a bit of a pickle arent i ?

The saltater vinegar solution tastes like it could clean a stove.
Its gonna take some real courage to gargle this for more than 2 seconds.
Boooooo.Lol.
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Quoting LargoFl:


Perfect example of what Largo posted here of this ridge basically killing these tropical waves as they come off Africa. It will take a strong front across the eastern US to put a dent in this ridge enough to lift the ITCZ north enough to get these waves spinning. Just don't see this happening over the next 2 weeks.
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319. Skyepony (Mod)
MLB NWS put out a good review of Debbie.
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Quoting Skyepony:


I said this in March & am still kicking myself for not buying corn & soy futures.


Yeah that drought in the MidWest is going to become severe/exceptional over the next few weeks as almost no rain is expected for several weeks maybe months if this pattern doesn't decide to break until late August. Expect Corn and Soy prices to sky rocket come the Fall.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Won't taste as good (NO PICKLES!!! Never heard of such a thing LOL) but the principle is the same. The vinegar changes the ph in your throat and helps to kill the germ and I think relieve the pain.


No pickles.I am in a bit of a pickle arent i ?

The saltater vinegar solution tastes like it could clean a stove.
Its gonna take some real courage to gargle this for more than 2 seconds.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Another hot spot for 2004 was the east coast.Two hurricanes formed off the coast that year(Alex and Gaston)
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Charley & Jeanne as well with Charley being the strongest of them all. Charley was like on big tornado coming thru Orlando.
They originated from tropical waves coming off of Africa.It seems conditions weren't prime until they hit the caribbean.
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313. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I'm welling to bet by the end of the summer this will go down as the hottest and driest summer EVER for the US.


I said this in March & am still kicking myself for not buying corn & soy futures.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..I am glad texas got the rains this year, they surely needed it as bad as florida did, in my area the drought is history


Austin is still in a drought. But Houston is out.
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
909 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FLC071-171445-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0053.120717T1309Z-120717T1445Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LEE FL-
909 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAPE CORAL


* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT

* AT 909 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2662 8224 2667 8227 2672 8227 2669 8223
2671 8213 2668 8210 2676 8207 2676 8190
2651 8192 2650 8213 2661 8215 2665 8220
2664 8222 2650 8217 2650 8220

$$
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Quoting washingtonian115:
2004 had four good Cape verde storms that year.Two of which unfortunately we'll remember for a very long time(Ivan and Frances).


Charley & Jeanne as well with Charley being the strongest of them all. Charley was like on big tornado coming thru Orlando.
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....gee more rain headed my way, sliding down the state..
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Quoting islander101010:
that.was.no.life.changer
Apparently to him it was! It knocked him out a good 5 years! LOL
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Quoting ncstorm:


Yeah Wash, we are locked in a pattern here for a while..I still think we will see at least a TS off the east coast and a tropical depression in the central atlantic..the models dont do well on intensity for storms formed off the fronts..




I have thunderstorms in my forecast as well for at least three days.We could see some server ones on Wens with damaging winds and hail.Not looking forward to that.I'm having flash backs of having no power again.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I have a 30-40% chance of rain forever.
but C GA with the drought is getting slighted, you guys took Both Tropical Storms and now the Tstorms too.
yes it seems like florida is in the bullseye this year for some reason, we dont need any more rain
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


dont have any pickles in the house.

how about gargling saltwater and vinegar?
Won't taste as good (NO PICKLES!!! Never heard of such a thing LOL) but the principle is the same. The vinegar changes the ph in your throat and helps to kill the germ and I think relieve the pain.
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Quoting LargoFl:
its too bad this country cannot build a nationwide pipeline, to pump excess water from area's that have too much water, to those area's that badly need the water, especially those states that supply us with our grains and food stuffs huh, probably will never happen, but then..we did create and build a national interstate highway system,with so many out of work why cant we do that?


that would be like drinking from a straw out of the ocean.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning all. GS, try my remedy for sore throats. Gargle with dill pickle juice. Works wonders. Even had people with severe strep throat swear by it after trying it. And if the soreness goes down the throat you can swallow some of the juice to kill the pain. Just watch out, because of the high salt content.


dont have any pickles in the house.

how about gargling saltwater and vinegar?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
2004 had four good Cape verde storms that year.Two of which unfortunately we'll remember for a very long time(Ivan and Frances).
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Good Morning everyone.

Ok so after 9 hrs of sleep, 1 gallon of water, and 3hrs of swimming in chlorine water, my sore throat is feeling better.
I hope it doesnt come back, i cant afford to be sick right now.


The tropics stay empty i see, the GFS looks less and less tropical now to me.
Setup isnt quite right
Good morning all. GS, try my remedy for sore throats. Gargle with dill pickle juice. Works wonders. Even had people with severe strep throat swear by it after trying it. And if the soreness goes down the throat you can swallow some of the juice to kill the pain. Just watch out, because of the high salt content.
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its too bad this country cannot build a nationwide pipeline, to pump excess water from area's that have too much water, to those area's that badly need the water, especially those states that supply us with our grains and food stuffs huh, probably will never happen, but then..we did create and build a national interstate highway system,with so many out of work why cant we do that?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
N.C seems to be stormy this year.lol.Good morning ncstorms see anything interesting?.


Yeah Wash, we are locked in a pattern here for a while..I still think we will see at least a TS off the east coast and a tropical depression in the central atlantic..the models dont do well on intensity for storms formed off the fronts..




Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16021
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..

We got reports of funnel clouds off of Kure Beach here..

N.C seems to be stormy this year.lol.Good morning ncstorms see anything interesting?.
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Good Morning..

We got reports of funnel clouds off of Kure Beach here..


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16021
Quoting Neapolitan:
The latest southern Europe/east Asia heat wave is continuing today, with many readings of 100 or more throughout Russia and the Middle East. And even normally comfortable places are getting in on the action. For instance: the average July high in Tenerife is 77. The temperature today and tomorrow is expected to reach around 107, according to the BBC--not too bad for an island situated in the moderating waters of the Atlantic. (It's currently over 100 degrees there, which is actually not all that surprising; Marrakech in Morocco, not so many miles to the northeast of Tenerife, is currently at 116, and could come close to an all-time record high today or tomorrow.)

hot

Acording to this mornings Spanish news:-
Not only are the temps what you say but 2 of the Cannary Islands also have large forrest fires burning partaly out of control. Nasa has photos of them. The normal seasonal temps should be about 28/C or arround 80/F for this time of year.
We are expiriancing a large African wave of heat coming in off the Sahara and it will last until Friday.
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Quoting LargoFl:
one bad thing about all this rain we have been getting, the rivers and streams are full, and the soil everywhere in florida is saturated, if we get a hurricane here anytime soon, there will be alot of flooding and tree's down everywhere, alot of damage for sure, we need a couple of weeks to dry out, and it does not look like we will get that drying off period anytime soon,thurs and friday it lets up, then the rains come back again whew....


I have a 30-40% chance of rain forever.
but C GA with the drought is getting slighted, you guys took Both Tropical Storms and now the Tstorms too.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
one bad thing about all this rain we have been getting, the rivers and streams are full, and the soil everywhere in florida is saturated, if we get a hurricane here anytime soon, there will be alot of flooding and tree's down everywhere, alot of damage for sure, we need a couple of weeks to dry out, and it does not look like we will get that drying off period anytime soon,thurs and friday it lets up, then the rains come back again whew....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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