Historic 2012 U.S. drought: 6th greatest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:59 PM GMT on July 16, 2012

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The great drought of 2012 is upon us. The percentage area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought increased to 56% by the end of June, and ranked as the sixth largest drought since U.S. weather records began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in their monthly State of the Climate drought report on Monday. The last time more of the U.S. was in drought occurred in December 1956, with 58%. June 2012 ranked as the 10th greatest U.S. drought on record, when considering the percentage area of the U.S. in severe or greater drought (33%.)


Figure 1. June 2012 ranked in sixth place for the greatest percent area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought, since record keeping began in 1895. Graphic created from data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

The forecast: hot and dry with increasing drought
The great drought of 2012 is going to steadily worsen during the remainder of July. Recent runs of the global computer forecast models predict a continuation through the end of July of the large-scale jet stream patterns that have brought the U.S. its hot, dry summer weather. The most extreme heat will tend to be focused over the center portion of the county. That was certainly the case Monday, with temperatures near or in excess of 100° observed from South Dakota to Michigan. High temperatures near 100°F are expected in Chicago and Detroit on Tuesday, and over much of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Comparison of drought between June 2012 (top) and June 1988 (bottom) shows that drought conditions covered a similar proportion of the contiguous U.S., but the spatial patterns were different. The 2012 drought is especially intense over the Southwest U.S., but in 1988, this region experienced a very active summer monsoon season that kept the region moist. However, in 1988, the Northern Plains were much drier than in 2012. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

A multi-billion dollar drought disaster underway
Agronomists and drought experts are comparing the scale and intensity of the 2012 drought to the 1988 drought. With the forecast offering little optimism, the costs of the 2012 drought are certain to be many billions of dollars, and the disaster could be one of the top ten most expensive weather-related disasters in U.S. history. Droughts historically have been some of the costliest U.S. weather disasters. A four-year drought and locust plague from 1874 - 1877 cost $169 billion (2012 dollars), and was arguably the most expensive weather related disaster in U.S. history (see Jeffrey Lockwood's 2004 book, Locust.) The costs of the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, which displaced 2.5 million people, are incalculable. The costs of government financial assistance alone were $13 billion in 2012 dollars (Warrick, 1980.) The 1988 drought cost $78 billion (2012 dollars), the second most expensive weather disaster since 1980, behind Hurricane Katrina.

The associated heat wave of the great drought of 2012 is also a major concern. The heat waves associated with the great droughts of 1980 and 1988 killed between 7,500 - 10,000 people, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The heat waves of the 1930s are blamed for 5,000 deaths. The death toll from the 2012 heat wave is approaching 100, including 23 in Chicago, up to 19 in Wisconsin, 18 in Maryland, 17 in St. Louis, and 9 in Philadelphia. The toll will undoubtedly grow as more heat-related deaths are discovered, and as the heat continues.


Figure 3. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts.

Tornadoes kill one, injure ten in Poland
A series of rare tornadoes hit northern and western Poland over the weekend, killing one and injuring ten. At least 100 homes were destroyed, and one of the twisters measured 1 km (0.6 miles) in diameter. Tornadoes are quite rare in Poland. According to the publication, An updated estimate of tornado occurrence in Europe by Nikolai Dotzek (2003), Poland reports about two tornadoes per year, and probably has two more per year that are unreported. Thanks go to wunderground member beell for posting this link.


Video 1. Raw footage of the weekend tornadoes that hit Poland.

Jeff Masters

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im going to ask this question but what el nino? we were 0.6 2 weeks ago now we are back to 0.4. the SOI has been positive for more than a week. the CFS model showed a weak/moderate el nino by july. where it is? this proves models cant predict the enso in advance but can only hint at what can happen. ive been saying since april that el nino WILL form but not this soon i said somewhere at the end of september and to this day i stand by it.
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Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:
I don't know what happened to my response to Rita...I said that the 1997 season was at least seen as "active" prior to Aug 1, even though 2012 started "earlier"....

But the amount of wind shear in the Atlantic after the "active" early starts seems similar, and while 2012 may have an extra tropical cyclone or 2,3...I see the season ending early...by Oct 15 or so, and just without much consequence.

I see a few people remarking about it being like 2002 or 2004...I don't see the similarities between those 2 years. Wasn't 2004 pretty active? 2002 was pretty quiet other than Lili. Isidore hit the Yucatan and then gave a bunch of rain to Louisiana area as a TS, but other than that 2002 was kinda quiet.
Quoting jeffs713:
I think it is important to point out a few things regarding the bickering over the similarities between this year and 1997.

There aren't many.
In 1997, there was a warm PDO. This year, it is a cold PDO.

In 1997, we didn't have a named storm until early July. This year, we've already had 4.

In 1997, there was already a full-fledged El Nino signature in the Pacific. This year, not so much.

Shall I go on?

Please for the love of all that is holy, stop trolling stupidly. If you are going to troll, at least make it amusing.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Doctor Jeff comes to the rescue :).

I see medical stuff, and my nurse-sense comes to say hi. ;)

(you have to admit, it can be kinda helpful at times)
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah that drought in the MidWest is going to become severe/exceptional over the next few weeks as almost no rain is expected for several weeks maybe months if this pattern doesn't decide to break until late August. Expect Corn and Soy prices to sky rocket come the Fall.


Indeed; the NAFES is not to positive on producing drought busting rains for the next few weeks. Other possibilities include Natural Gas (short term as power generation demand for A/C continues to be very high) and potash for the fall as farmers attempt to take advantage of high prices.
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I don't know what happened to my response to Rita...I said that the 1997 season was at least seen as "active" prior to Aug 1, even though 2012 started "earlier"....

But the amount of wind shear in the Atlantic after the "active" early starts seems similar, and while 2012 total season may (end with) an extra total # of tropical cyclones than 1997 (by a few)...I see the season ending early...by Oct 15 or so, and just without much consequence.

I see a few people remarking about it being like 2002 or 2004...I don't see the similarities between those 2 years. Wasn't 2004 pretty active? 2002 was pretty quiet other than Lili. Isidore hit the Yucatan and then gave a bunch of rain to Louisiana area as a TS, but other than that 2002 was kinda quiet.

So I can see 2002 being somewhat similar to my 1997 inclusion, but not 2004.
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Doctor Jeff comes to the rescue :).
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i get the same illness every few months for a day or two.
Its wierd
always starts with a sore throat

How have your allergies been? Any sinus congestion? (might want to check those)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The pattern of "less storms recurveing" reminds me of 2004 with that strong A/B high.The slow movement to El nino reminds me of 2002.2004 was also warm neutral at this time as we are now.


the average for 2002 and 2004 season are

13.5 TS
6.5 hurricanes
4 majors
are the numbers that I'm waiting
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The El Nino this year is way less intense than the one in 1997.

July 1997's El Nino - a 'super El Nino' if you will.

Current developing El Nino in July 2012.

And look at the PDO then compared to now...
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I think it is important to point out a few things regarding the bickering over the similarities between this year and 1997.

There aren't many.
In 1997, there was a warm PDO. This year, it is a cold PDO.

In 1997, we didn't have a named storm until early July. This year, we've already had 4.

In 1997, there was already a full-fledged El Nino signature in the Pacific. This year, not so much.

Shall I go on?

Please for the love of all that is holy, stop trolling stupidly. If you are going to troll, at least make it amusing.
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The El Nino this year is way less intense than the one in 1997.

July 1997's El Nino - a 'super El Nino' if you will.

Current developing El Nino in July 2012.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23935
Quoting timtlu:


If you have apple cider vinegar, gargle it for a bit a couple times a day and you will be good to go. I used to get strep throat twice a year every year until a nurse told me this little trick. Even reversed my strep throat the first time I tried. Now I keep a bottle in the fridge and break it out any time I wake up sore and scratchy.


i get the same illness every few months for a day or two.
Its wierd
always starts with a sore throat
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9726
As I've said before and I'll say it again.No one is denying the formation of el nino(If you are your high on something).It's just that it'll be forming slower than most people think.
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Speaking of this blog entry's topic, here's a global map of expected permanent drought conditions by 2050, a mere 38 years away:

drought

On the positive side, though: we'll be able to grow a lot of veggies in Siberia and northern Canada once all that pesky, mucky permafrost has dried out and become arable.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13510
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


dont have any pickles in the house.

how about gargling saltwater and vinegar?


If you have apple cider vinegar, gargle it for a bit a couple times a day and you will be good to go. I used to get strep throat twice a year every year until a nurse told me this little trick. Even reversed my strep throat the first time I tried. Now I keep a bottle in the fridge and break it out any time I wake up sore and scratchy.
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379. wxmod
No more thick ice at the pole.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I googled it. Increasing pressures at Tahiti indicates a positive SOI.



If so i think SOI will continue to rise.
Past a week or 2 it may drop.

I still see nothing on google
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9726
Quoting RitaEvac:


2012 is already in the record books for so many named storms in June, and is now just behind the 2005 season.
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Quoting Doppler22:


yeah i agree with you there
The pattern of "less storms recurveing" reminds me of 2004 with that strong A/B high.The slow movement to El nino reminds me of 2002.2004 was also warm neutral at this time as we are now.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There has also been a big jump down in anomalies over the past 2-3 weeks. Not to mention the SOI has been positive for 10 straight days now. Not exactly a sign El Nino is trying to become established.



Thats certainly ammo on your side. I'll stick stubbornly to my gut feeling about this hurricane season though, at least for now.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


google doesnt have an answer, but best i can tell, pressure is staying steadier at darwin and increasing at tahiti.
Trying to understand the formula to see how the standard devs and means change and sum formula to see what the SOI would do.
I suppose FSU would teach you that....

I googled it. Increasing pressures at Tahiti indicates a positive SOI.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
This years hurricane season will probably be more similar to 2002/2004.


yeah i agree with you there
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There has also been a big jump down in anomalies over the past 2-3 weeks. Not to mention the SOI has been positive for 10 straight days now. Not exactly a sign El Nino is trying to become established.

Some people have to see it to believe it.He needs to provide evidence.I'm sure if we were to see anything like we did in 1997 all of us would have been on the bandwagon by now.Then again I'm not sure if he's trolling..
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Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:


Well, the 2012 hurricane season is already behaving similar to the 1997 season, and it wouldn't shock me to see the El Nino really take off. Just a few months ago, we weren't expected to be as far along in el nino as we are now, so to act like its preposterous, well,....ok.

Just remember I'd like an apology if/ when this hurricane season indeed does wind up resembling something close to 1997' when all is said & done.


2012 is already in the record books for so many named storms in June, and is now just behind the 2005 season.
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Sustained negative values of the SOI greater than %u22128 often indicate El Nio episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia and the Top End. You can read more about historical El Nio events and their effect on Australia in the Detailed analysis of past El Nio events.

Sustainted positive values of the SOI greater than 8 are typical of a La Nia episode. They are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and warmer sea temperatures to the north of Australia. Waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler during this time. Together these give an increased probability that eastern and northern Australia will be wetter than normal. You can read more about historical La Nia events and their effect on Australia in the Detailed analysis of past La Nia events.

The ENSO Wrap-Up includes the latest 30-day SOI value, as well as other information on indicators of El Nio and La Nia events.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ask google, I don't know lol.


google doesnt have an answer, but best i can tell, pressure is staying steadier at darwin and increasing at tahiti.
Trying to understand the formula to see how the standard devs and means change and sum formula to see what the SOI would do.
I suppose FSU would teach you that....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9726
Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:



"slow trend toward el nino" yes...but el nino really jumped (or at least the spike in warmer waters) jumped dramatically about a month or so ago. I think we'll see another spike in the coming months. I don't see the el nino for this winter behaving "exactly" like 1997's in the realm that I see this one being a more quickly ascending event (whereas as pointed out, 1997's was well into the phase) but the Atlantic hurricane season is already acting similarly to the 1997 version, and I really don't see that trend diminishing as time goes on, considering if my prediction on El Nino continues to pan out.

Hey, I could be wrong, too - and in that case, I'll be the one offering you an apology...I don't expect that to be necessary though...

There has also been a big jump down in anomalies over the past 2-3 weeks. Not to mention the SOI has been positive for 10 straight days now. Not exactly a sign El Nino is trying to become established.

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Quoting gulfbreeze:
No two years are alike!


No 2 years are "identical" , but there indeed have been years that can have similarities drawn.

When this Atlantic season is over, I'd be surprised if there is 9 named storms. I'd also be surprised if anything at all forms after Oct 15.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not sure where you're getting the part where we didn't expect El Nino to be as far along as we are now. Many of us have expected a slow trend towards El Nino, and it may even be going a little slower than we thought it would. The ONI value for 2012 is still -0.1C, so we won't see it declared anytime soon, but I think El Nino conditions will start to be felt in the Atlantic by late September.



"slow trend toward el nino" yes...but el nino really jumped (or at least the spike in warmer waters) jumped dramatically about a month or so ago. I think we'll see another spike in the coming months. I don't see the el nino for this winter behaving "exactly" like 1997's in the realm that I see this one being a more quickly ascending event (whereas as pointed out, 1997's was well into the phase) but the Atlantic hurricane season is already acting similarly to the 1997 version, and I really don't see that trend diminishing as time goes on, considering if my prediction on El Nino continues to pan out.

Hey, I could be wrong, too - and in that case, I'll be the one offering you an apology...I don't expect that to be necessary though...
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


If tahiti gains 3-7mb on darwin over 2 weeks, how does mean pressure change?
What will the SOI do?

Ask google, I don't know lol.
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updated map..

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not sure where you're getting the part where we didn't expect El Nino to be as far along as we are now. Many of us have expected a slow trend towards El Nino, and it may even be going a little slower than we thought it would. The ONI value for 2012 is still -0.1C, so we won't see it declared anytime soon, but I think El Nino conditions will start to be felt in the Atlantic by late September.


If tahiti gains 3-7mb on darwin over 2 weeks, how does mean pressure change?
What will the SOI do?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9726
Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:


Well, the 2012 hurricane season is already behaving similar to the 1997 season, and it wouldn't shock me to see the El Nino really take off. Just a few months ago, we weren't expected to be as far along in el nino as we are now, so to act like its preposterous, well,....ok.

Just remember I'd like an apology if/ when this hurricane season indeed does wind up resembling something close to 1997' when all is said & done.

Not sure where you're getting the part where we didn't expect El Nino to be as far along as we are now. Many of us have expected a slow trend towards El Nino, and it may even be going a little slower than we thought it would. The ONI value for 2012 is still -0.1C, so we won't see it declared anytime soon, but I think El Nino conditions will start to be felt in the Atlantic by late September.
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Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:


I don't see why we -wouldn't- see something very close to 1997 for the Atlantic this year.

Other than -wishcasting- I just don't see why not.
No two years are alike!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I know right it's just crazy!.El nino would have to literally take off in order for that to happen.I do think we'll eventually see one but people predicting this years Atlantic hurricane season/El nino will be like 1997 are high on something.


Well, the 2012 hurricane season is already behaving similar to the 1997 season, and it wouldn't shock me to see the El Nino really take off. Just a few months ago, we weren't expected to be as far along in el nino as we are now, so to act like its preposterous, well,....ok.

Just remember I'd like an apology if/ when this hurricane season indeed does wind up resembling something close to 1997' when all is said & done.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38241
So..just How Bad is it Really?..good story here on the drought........................................WAL TONVILLE, Ill. — The nation's widest drought in decades is spreading, with more than half of the continental United States now in some stage of drought and most of the rest enduring abnormally dry conditions.

Only in the 1930s and the 1950s has a drought covered more land, according to federal figures released Monday. So far, there's little risk of a Dust Bowl-type catastrophe, but crop losses could mount if rain doesn't come soon.

In its monthly drought report, the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., announced that 55 percent of the country was in a moderate to extreme drought at the end of June. The parched conditions expanded last month in the West, the Great Plains and the Midwest, fueled by the 14th warmest and 10th driest June on record, the report said.

Topsoil has turned dry while "crops, pastures and rangeland have deteriorated at a rate rarely seen in the last 18 years," the report said.

The percentage of affected land is the largest since December 1956, when 58 percent of the country was covered by drought, and it rivals even some years in the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, though experts point out that this year's weather has been milder than that period, and farming practices have been vastly improved since then.

In southern Illinois, Kenny Brummer has lost 800 acres of corn that he grows to feed his 400 head of cattle and 30,000 hogs. Now he's scrambling to find hundreds of thousands of bushels of replacement feed.

"Where am I going to get that from? You have concerns about it every morning when you wake up," said Brummer, who farms near Waltonville. "The drought is bad, but that's just half of the problem on this farm."

Around a third of the nation's corn crop has been hurt, with some of it so badly damaged that farmers have already cut down their withered plants to feed to cattle. As of Sunday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said, 38 percent of the corn crop was in poor or very poor condition, compared with 30 percent a week earlier.

"This is definitely the epicenter – right in the heart of the Midwest," said climatologist Mark Svoboda with the Nebraska-based National Drought Mitigation Center.

It's all a huge comedown for farmers who had expected a record year when they sowed 96.4 million acres in corn, the most since 1937. The Department of Agriculture initially predicted national average corn yields of 166 bushels per acre this year.

The agency has revised that projection down to 146, and more reductions are possible if conditions don't improve.

The lower projection is still an improvement over the average yields of around 129 bushels a decade ago. But already tight supplies and fears that the drought will get worse before it gets better have been pushing up grain prices, which are likely to translate into higher food prices for consumers, particularly for meat and poultry.

Monday's report was based on data going back to 1895 called the Palmer Drought Index. It feeds into the widely watched and more detailed U.S. Drought Monitor, which reported last week that 61 percent of the continental U.S. was in a moderate to exceptional drought. However, the weekly Drought Monitor goes back only 12 years, so climatologists use the Palmer Drought Index for comparing droughts before 2000.

Climatologists have labeled this year's dry spell a "flash drought" because it developed in a matter of months, not over multiple seasons or years.

The current drought is similar to the droughts of the 1950s, which weren't as intense as those of the 1930s, said Jake Crouch, a climatologist with the National Climatic Data Center. And farming has changed a lot since the Dust Bowl era. Better soil conservation has reduced erosion, and modern hybrids are much more resistant to drought.

But Crouch said it's important to understand that this drought is still unfolding.

"We can't say with certainty how long this might last now. Now that we're going up against the two largest droughts in history, that's something to be wary of," Crouch said. "The coming months are really going to be the determining factor of how big a drought it ends up being."

In northwest Kansas, Brian Baalman's cattle pastures have dried up, along with probably half of his corn crop. He desperately needs some rain to save the rest of it, and he's worried what will happen if the drought lingers into next year.

"I have never seen this type of weather before like this. A lot of old timers haven't either," Baalman said. "I just think we are seeing history in the making."

The federal government is already moving to help farmers and ranchers.

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack last week announced plans for streamlining the aid process. A major goal is to cut the time it takes to declare an agricultural disaster area. He also reduced interest rates for emergency loans and made it cheaper for farmers to graze livestock or cut hay on lands otherwise locked up in a conservation program.

Some state governments are stepping in, too. In Wisconsin, Gov. Scott Walker declared a state of emergency in 42 counties last week to speed up the issuance of permits for temporarily using stream or lake water for irrigation.

During a visit Monday to a southern Illinois corn and soybean farm, Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn announced that drought-affected farmers would be eligible for state debt restructuring and loan programs in addition to the aid the USDA announced last week.

Quinn ventured into a corn field where he spent some time looking for an actual ear of corn. When he found one and peeled off the husk, there were no kernels.

Two-thirds of Illinois is in what's classified as a severe drought or worse. Neighboring Indiana is even worse, with 70 percent in at least a severe drought.

Brummer could normally count on corn yields of 170 bushels per acre. He expects to get just 10 bushels this year, if he gets anything at all.

The top of the cornstalks are an unhealthy pale green, he said. Many of them have no ears, and "if there are there are a few kernels, they don't seem to know if they should die or make a grain."

Crop insurance will cover up to 150 bushels per acre. But no coverage is available for Brummer's livestock, so he figures he'll lose $350,000 to $400,000 on that side of the operation.

Not long ago, Brummer rejoiced along with countless other Midwest growers about getting their crops in the ground early.

"It looked really good until about a month ago," he said. "Then the concerns started, and it's been downhill ever since."

___

Karnowski reported from Minneapolis. Associated Press Writer Roxana Hegeman contributed to this story from Wichita, Kan.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38241
Quoting kwgirl:
Hope it helped. I always keep jars of pickle juice in my frig. The last time my sister visited me, she threw out the jar, thinking it was empty of pickles so time to go. Last time she will do that !LOL
You know you can chop some carrots and celery up into sticks and put them into the empty jar of pickle juice for a really good snack.
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In 1997 at this time of in july the value for el NINO WAS 1.5 ,
and right now El Nino values is only 0.4 so yeah is ridiculous, thinking in a 1997 season

Link
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


too late :)
Ill remember that for next time
Hope it helped. I always keep jars of pickle juice in my frig. The last time my sister visited me, she threw out the jar, thinking it was empty of pickles so time to go. Last time she will do that !LOL
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
GFS rainfall-through 180 hours

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This years hurricane season will probably be more similar to 2002/2004.
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..gee more rain, im forgetting what a nice sunny day looks like
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38241
Quoting kwgirl:
You are braver than me. I would hop out to the store to buy the pickles, if I was ever caught without them (God Forbid!)

Edit: Try adding sugar, like you are pickling your own cucumbers. Then it will be palatable.

Double edit: It is better if you use cider vinegar rather than white, if you are concocting your own solution.


too late :)
Ill remember that for next time
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9726
Do you guys honestly think we'll see something like this?.Ridiculous.

Link
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I know right it's just crazy!.El nino would have to literally take off in order for that to happen.I do think we'll eventually see one but people predicting this years Atlantic hurricane season/El nino will be like 1997 are high on something.


1980s high
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Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:


Funny, I was just thinking of this very thing.

Also, to add, we also developed a long pipeline to carry oil across half a continent and across mountain ranges...so if they -really- wanted to do what you're suggesting, they probably could accomplish it.
yeah i guess it would take a huge outcry from the general public to make washington wake up and listen to the people crying out for help with these droughts, our grain prices are going to go thru the roof now, beef and chicken prices are going up this week the news said, and..its going to get worse with this drought ongoing, the news said yesterday they are really studying this drought to see if its going to get as bad as the 1930's, a real possibility
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38241
Quoting Gearsts:
How can 1997 be compared with this year with and El nino like that?
I know right it's just crazy!.El nino would have to literally take off in order for that to happen.I do think we'll eventually see one but people predicting this years Atlantic hurricane season/El nino will be like 1997 are high on something.
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Quoting stoormfury:
THis cyclone probability graphic from the NHC is rather confusing. there is an area of strong cyclone probability in the central atlantic on this graphic which by all accounts looks impossible. conditions in the whole tropical atlantic is not conducive for tropical development so this graphic is misleading
yes its been there for a week now, nothing there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38241
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


No pickles.I am in a bit of a pickle arent i ?

The saltater vinegar solution tastes like it could clean a stove.
Its gonna take some real courage to gargle this for more than 2 seconds.
You are braver than me. I would hop out to the store to buy the pickles, if I was ever caught without them (God Forbid!)

Edit: Try adding sugar, like you are pickling your own cucumbers. Then it will be palatable.

Double edit: It is better if you use cider vinegar rather than white, if you are concocting your own solution.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.