July Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

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It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.


Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Would all of these be TS's because if so then wow 4 of em
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
If you're interested, I wrote a new blog on Fabio, 8W, and potential Atlantic development.
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2159. Patrap
www.solarham.net


Pine City, Minnesota Aurora (Early Sunday) - by Carlton McMillan K5CJM

VHF Aurora 2 meter (144mhz) and 6 meter (50mhz) is currently full of aurora signals here in Ontario, Canada. If you are high in latitude, time to turn the yagis north.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting wxchaser97:
popsted a comment 1 minute ago, still not there.
156 hrs


is that the 5th one over MS?
Are we racing the EPAC or something?
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2157. ncstorm
Quoting wxchaser97:
popsted a comment 1 minute ago, still not there.
156 hrs


FOUR!!!..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15053
Quoting wxchaser97:
3 to 2 storms off of the same frontal system..The GFS is having a field day
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16680
gardening=over

just got caught in a sudden rain, didnt see the cloud with the rain before it started pouring but it was partly cloudy all around and then it started pouring over me where it was sunny before.

So sorry guys, im bak....
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2154. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Do they do anything with the blob near Bermuda?.


No I didnt see anything on the GFS but you know that dont mean anything..models miss systems many times
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15053
2153. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 15 2046 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
..............the worst should be over by morning i hope..gee a k-6 is knida strong huh.................2012-07-15 11:12 Geomagnetic Storm Underway

G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity is now occurring as a result of the ongoing coronal mass ejection effects. No further significant activity has occured, and while Region 1520 has become less of a threat, it still has the potential for further activity. Stay tuned for updates.
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popsted a comment 1 minute ago, still not there.
156 hrs
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting ncstorm:
18z GFS..the midlevel swirl off the SE coast





starting to show up on the models..

Do they do anything with the blob near Bermuda?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16680
2149. ncstorm
Quoting wxchaser97:
Also it takes 1-2 minutes instead of a few seconds for my comments to appear. Are you having this issue as well ncstorm? My o and p key problem is due to maple syruop getting between the 2 keys.


LOL..I thought it was my hotpocket issue (joke on the blog) but yeah, it takes several seconds for it show up..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15053
2148. LargoFl
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 15 2046 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152154Z - 152300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS. MOST OF THE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS SRN AZ WITH AN INCREASING
TREND EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT
THE REGION DEPICT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S...SUPPORTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE NEAR
1500 J/KG. MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 6-7 KFT...AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /700-500 MEAN RH APPROX 70 PERCENT/ WILL PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF WET MICROBURST /EVIDENCED BY DCAPE
VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG/. MOST OF THESE MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONALLY...VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8
INCH PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCH/HOUR POSSIBLE.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Full Globe ASCAT Combined:

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
Quoting ncstorm:


Yeah I got error messages as well..

Largo, lets hope not..
Also it takes 1-2 minutes instead of a few seconds for my comments to appear. Are you having this issue as well ncstorm? My o and p key problem is due to maple syruop getting between the 2 keys.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Northwest Subtropical Atlantic ASCAT combined image:

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2143. ncstorm
18z GFS..the midlevel swirl off the SE coast





starting to show up on the models..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15053
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
2140. ncstorm
Quoting wxchaser97:
I'm having problems as well. When I refresh or post around half the time I get an error message and have to keep on refreshing until it fixes itself. Also unrelated the blog has been pretty slow again today.


Yeah I got error messages as well..

Largo, lets hope not..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15053
Quoting ncstorm:
whats going on with the blog?..my posts arent showing up..sorry for the double posts..
I'm having problems as well. When I refresh or post around half the time I get an error message and have to keep on refreshing until it fixes itself. Also unrelated the blog has been pretty slow again today.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
What is the deal with the area east of Bermuda!!
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2137. LargoFl
Quoting yoboi:
doom shield activated.....
..people laughed yesterday
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2136. LargoFl
AY AREA --
A steady line of thunderstorms is moving from Polk County into the coastal Bay area along the summer sea breeze Sunday afternoon.

The storms will move to the west and sweep over the coastal counties into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered storms have also popped up away from the line's leading edge.
Drier air moved through Saturday, but it shifted west to the Bay area. Moisture has been allowed to move back into the region and it will stick around for the next few days.

Most of the storms aren't strong, but are producing heavy rain. They should wind down by Sunday night around 10 p.m., but a scattered storm is possible throughout the night.

Monday is expected to be similar to Sunday's conditions, with a 60 percent chance of rain.
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2135. yoboi
doom shield activated.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2334
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think we'll see a cape verde in about two weeks.

I think 2-3 weeks since enviorment issues need to be worked out. A home-born storm is possible later this week. It could/ should be an appitizer to a cv storm and give us something to track in our basin.
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2132. yoboi
the blog is messed up...
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2131. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:
whats going on with the blog?..my posts arent showing up..sorry for the double posts..
..yes also having alot of trouble posting as well, then again the whole web seems to have slowed down..might be the effects of that solar CME, we'll see
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2130. ncstorm
whats going on with the blog?..my posts arent showing up..sorry for the double posts..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15053
2129. LargoFl
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2128. ncstorm
.
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2127. ncstorm
The area near Florida might just become a player..you never know

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE SPLITS AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MON. THIS WILL ALLOW A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO BRUSH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS IT MOVES BY TO OUR N. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ON MON WILL LINGER AND ACTUALLY BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED AS WE MOVE INTO TUE. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THAT HAS
BEEN WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL TRANSITION TO A SW/WSW FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO THESE FEATURES WITH THIS FLOW DEEPENING WITH TIME. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SEABREEZE PINNED NEAR/AT THE COAST.

ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE MID-LEVEL SWIRL OFF THE
SE COAST...ABOUT 200 MILES E OF SAV AT MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL INLAND
ACROSS N FL/GA AND SOUTHERN SC ON MON. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE
A VERY WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION AND SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD AND UP THE COAST DURING MON...

BEFORE BECOMING ILL-DEFINED.



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15053
PA getting interesting... pretty good line of storms going through central PA and i just got hit by an interesting storm......alot of lightning....

PAC037-093-097-107-109-152245-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0111.120715T2148Z-120715T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
548 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COLUMBIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN MONTOUR COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN SNYDER COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 544 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
JERSEYTOWN TO SNYDERTOWN TO FREMONT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE
STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
KNOEBELS GROVE AND CATAWISSA...
FERNDALE AND NUMIDIA...
SHUMANS AND MIFFLINVILLE...
BERWICK AND SCOTCH VALLEY...
VALLEY VIEW AND NUREMBURG...
SHEPPTON AND SHENANDOAH...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 222 AND 247...I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110
AND 139.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11...ROUTE
11/15...ROUTE 209...ROUTE 522...STATE ROAD 61...STATE ROAD 309.
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Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Analysis

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2124. LargoFl
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I think we'll see a cape verde in about two weeks.


Nearly to july 25th i think so, but the wind shear need to slow down a little and , the SAL also
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
2121. LargoFl
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2120. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
538 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FLZ051-055-152215-
HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
538 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MANATEE AND SOUTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR FORT LONESOME...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF FISH
HAWK...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT FORT
LONESOME...DUETTE...SUN CITY CENTER...RUSKIN...APOLLO BEACH...
PARRISH...AND WIMAUMA...UNTIL 615 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 229 AND 246.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2769 8254 2779 8243 2781 8245 2782 8241
2784 8241 2783 8244 2785 8246 2786 8240
2775 8207 2757 8210 2755 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 099DEG 7KT 2768 8218

$$
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Eastern Atlantic:

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8W

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Quoting wxchaser97:
Yes, and the waves are getting stronger but it should take a few weeks to get a system going.
I think we'll see a cape verde in about two weeks.
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2116. LargoFl
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It should weaken some since the high won't be as strong.
Yes, and the waves are getting stronger but it should take a few weeks to get a system going.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
I think the east Pac is about to slow down and the CV seas will start up in about a week to 10 days just a gut feeling!!
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2113. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
445 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FLZ042-048-049-051-055-152130-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
445 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MANATEE...CENTRAL
PASCO...CITRUS...HERNANDO AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CITRUS HILLS TO
PLANT CITY AIRPORT TO 6 MILES EAST OF LAKE MANATEE STATE PARK...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BEVERLY HILLS TO PLANT CITY TO 21 MILES
EAST OF BRADENTON...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT BEVERLY
HILLS...HEATHERWOOD...LAKE LINDSEY...BLOOMINGDALE...VALRICO...
PARRISH...BRADENTON...LUTZ...TEMPLE TERRACE...GIBSONTON...
BROOKSVILLE...LAND O LAKES...AND SAN ANTONIO...UNTIL 530 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 217 AND 293.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2889 8270 2896 8273 2894 8240 2794 8208
2739 8219 2742 8260 2766 8256 2783 8241
2783 8243 2783 8244 2789 8241 2792 8248
2781 8247 2782 8252 2798 8249 2869 8268
2872 8273 2875 8270 2880 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 095DEG 12KT 2886 8247 2795 8218
2749 8228

$$
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2112. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
512 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FLC081-152215-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0046.120715T2112Z-120715T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MANATEE FL-
512 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 512 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2757 8237 2759 8223 2745 8223 2745 8238

$$
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2111. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
513 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FLC017-053-152215-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0047.120715T2113Z-120715T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HERNANDO FL-CITRUS FL-
513 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN CITRUS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 513 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2876 8251 2876 8230 2858 8230 2858 8251

$$
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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