July Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

Share this Blog
60
+

It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.


Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 361 - 311

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48Blog Index

Quoting WxGeekVA:


To all deniers: Even if climate change isn't real, the least that could happen is that we create a better world to live in.


I gotta hand it to you...almost as many plusses as the Doc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z ECMWF shows a strong wave over the NE Caribbean islands by next Friday the 20th.



weak wave, and then its gone
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
12z ECMWF shows a strong wave over the NE Caribbean islands by next Friday the 20th.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Breaking news: X1.4 solar flare, 12 July 2012 at 1653 UT, with accompanying
CME (coronal mass ejection). Incoming solar storm projected for 14 July 2012 at 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours).


Just as earth has cycles which we call seasons, the sun's energy output also changes on
a roughly 11-year basis. We call these changes the solar cycle.
We are now four years into a new solar maximum period. During the last solar minimum, there were few
magnetic storms on the sun, sunspots were rare, and geomagnetic disturbances here on earth
were nearly nonexistent. Aurora watchers had to travel to the polar regions to see
the Northern Lights. However, change is here. We are now in solar maximum.

Aurora Borealis Page

The Solar Maximum has arrived early. According to some end of the world enthusiasts, it wasn't supposed to arrive until Dec. 21, 2012.
..interesting, how far south would they see the northern lights now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Breaking news: X1.4 solar flare, 12 July 2012 at 1653 UT, with accompanying
CME (coronal mass ejection). Incoming solar storm projected for 14 July 2012 at 10:20 UT ( /- 7 hours).


Just as earth has cycles which we call seasons, the sun's energy output also changes on
a roughly 11-year basis. We call these changes the solar cycle.
We are now four years into a new solar maximum period. During the last solar minimum, there were few
magnetic storms on the sun, sunspots were rare, and geomagnetic disturbances here on earth
were nearly nonexistent. Aurora watchers had to travel to the polar regions to see
the Northern Lights. However, change is here. We are now in solar maximum.

Aurora Borealis Page

The Solar Maximum has arrived early. According to some end of the world enthusiasts, it wasn't supposed to arrive until Dec. 21, 2012.


maybe this isnt the maximum :O

mabye the end of the world is when a gigantic solar flare explodes with all its got into a massive off the charts CME and fries the earth.
How the dark side of the earth dies we still have to figure out

jk
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Fabio's ugly.


Hurricane Nate of last year:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
No where close to full:


Steady decline:


El Ninos are supposed to be wet and cool, but that didnt help in 2007, and after this trough passes, we arent supposed to get much more rain for a long time, and eventually the high is supposed to come back.
Even the normal popup tstorms have found a way to not come without forcing this year.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Breaking news: X1.4 solar flare, 12 July 2012 at 1653 UT, with accompanying
CME (coronal mass ejection). Incoming solar storm projected for 14 July 2012 at 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours).


Just as earth has cycles which we call seasons, the sun's energy output also changes on
a roughly 11-year basis. We call these changes the solar cycle.
We are now four years into a new solar maximum period. During the last solar minimum, there were few
magnetic storms on the sun, sunspots were rare, and geomagnetic disturbances here on earth
were nearly nonexistent. Aurora watchers had to travel to the polar regions to see
the Northern Lights. However, change is here. We are now in solar maximum.

Aurora Borealis Page

The Solar Maximum has arrived early. According to some end of the world enthusiasts, it wasn't supposed to arrive until Dec. 21, 2012.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Patrap:


I wont say it, but the Slidell boyz might er, dampen yer hopes atad.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
949 am CDT Friday Jul 13 2012


Update...


Sounding discussion...


Problems with sounding getting into d2d this morning. Ncf fixed
the problem and sounding is now available in d2d. Otherwise...a
successful flight this morning. A continued moist and unstable
sounding with a precipitable water of 1.95 inches and and an Li of -5.8. Very high
cape values around 3600 this morning as well. A light to moderate
southerly flow continues to dominate from the lower levels up to
the upper levels.




&&


Previous discussion... /issued 359 am CDT Friday Jul 13 2012/


Short term...
the boundary stalled just to the north of the County Warning Area remains the
driving factor in the forecast. This boundary will weaken over the
next few days. Expect conditions to reflect conditions from
yesterday except initial rainfall this morning is on our door
step. Latest infrared imagery shows a numerous clouds just off to the
west. Another interesting feature being depicted on the imagery
is a weak low just off to the northwest of the area across extreme
west Mississippi. This could help increase convection this
morning. In fact showers and thunderstorms have been developing
west of Baton Rouge this morning. Some of the short range models
increase convection during the morning hours especially areas from
Baton Rouge westward. For this reason and also for ongoing
precipitation near the western border of the County Warning Area this morning have
increased probability of precipitation over the western areas of the forecast area this
morning to near 100 percent. Areas to the east have maintained the
likely wording from last package. Coverage of showers and storms
will increase this morning...a few models suggest that the bulk of
the rainfall expected today will fall during the morning hours.
However have continued to carry likely probability of precipitation through the afternoon
and evening hours despite a possible dry trend in the afternoon.
Temperatures today should remain at or below normal today due to
convection and cloud cover.


Long term...
the boundary continues to weaken and the atmosphere still is very
moist through the weekend. Precipitable water values still around the 2 inch mark
and a moderately unstable atmosphere should allow for showers and
storms to develop each day though the weekend. Have kept likely
wording in though Sunday. Upper level ridge over eastern rockies
stubbornly tries to move eastward by the middle of next week. We
can expect a more normal pattern next week as convection should be
more diurnal in nature. Have probability of precipitation in the 30 to 40 percent range
each day next week. With increased subsidence aloft taking
hold and drier air working into the area...temperatures will begin to
warm across the region. Near normal to slightly above normal
temperatures by weeks end as upper level ridge over the High
Plains slowly flattens and slides eastward.


Thanks Pat and yoboi. I'll bring my rubber boots and umbrella. Meeting up with a friend we were stationed with in Leavenworth, she's always wanted to visit NO. We'll have a great time no matter the weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherneophyte:


You're too young to have gone through the endless climate scares that the media and "scientists" have tried to heap upon the public throughout the years. When I was in high school, we were going to be in an ice age by now, starving to death because we wouldn't be able to grow enough food. Now (when we were supposed to all be frozen in ice) they're telling us, no, no, it's going to be too hot. We'll all be starving to death because we can't grow enough food. Remember these days when you hit your 50's and 60's. You'll have an entirely different set of life experiences to draw upon when the newest major "scare" starts coming out of the media. I'm reminded of the bird flu epidemic that should've taken most of us out by now. Or the AIDS virus that should've decimated the population. Both are definite concerns and should be treated as such. But the breathless panic that the media sensationalizes is unneeded.


Really?

Ok...grandpa...let me give you some hip new information then. There's this thing called the internet which allows you to access a huge amount of information. For example, you can do searches and find out that the "ice age scare" was nothing more than a media myth trumped up because they could get some ratings out of it (then, like now, most climate scientist knew the planet was warming).

And food? If it wasn't for modern advances in technology we would have issues. Actually, check that. The world does have food problems. And poverty problems. And resource problems. And they aren't getting any better either and won't get any better with an ever growing population, diminishing natural resources, and a changing climate.

And no, scientists don't claim "Disease X is going to kill us all!!!!1!!!1!!". The media does that. Groups like the CDC bring communicable diseases to our attention to let us know things like unprotected sex or visiting countries that don't have proper vaccinations or poor health standards might not be such a good idea and to take precautions.

So, for the sake of your own sanity I suggest turning off Fox News, MSNBC, or whatever other supposed news network you watch and make a little effort to dig down to what the experts are really saying instead of what you you "think" you heard or what some well groomed talking head told you. Then you'll find out that when the TV says "It could kill millions!" you'll find the experts saying "Yeah, if we lived in the Dark Ages and we all started eating our own feces.".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xyrus2000:


*sigh*

Science is backed up by fact, research, and observation. It doesn't matter how strongly a scientist wants to believe otherwise, the data is the data.

A skeptic is someone who thinks the science may be incomplete, and has a good understanding of the state of the science they are questioning. Skeptics are very useful in science as they help to improve the science. They, also do not rely on belief.

Deniers base their arguments on belief, similar to creationists. No amount of science, data, or observations will ever change their belief. They usually attempt to bend and twist existing science in such a way as to make it appear that it supports their claims, but you won't find them writing any models or publishing any scientific papers in respectable journals. You can and will find many internet sites with inflammatory headlines, empty rhetoric, and pseudo-scientific nonsense though. Their goal is to derail the science, often under the guidance of well-monied financial backers who have something to gain or lose from impeding or burying scientific results.

So no, this isn't a conflict of ideologies where both sides "believe" they are right (like politics, for example). This is a case where one side has large amounts of science, observation, and research to support their position, and the other simply refuse to accept or acknowledge it out of "belief".



Yes... I'm aware of all that, sorry if I was unclear.

I quoted "believers" because that's a term some use, but I know that you can't "believe" a fact. It's just there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why do these East Pac storms always get so tiny before dissipating?

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not just Atlanta but many in the FL Panhandle as well.


true, but lets just put it this way, If metro atlanta is without lanier, we would probably need bottled water(gone in a day) and FEMA.

There isnt enough bottled water around to stop some kind of injury, sickness, or death somewhere.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting PedleyCA:



Water Level
640.01 FEET
Friday, July 13, 2012
10:05:00 AM
Level is 40.99 feet
below full pool of 681.00


So Lake Travis was down 81 feet?? Am I reading this right? If so then WOW as they still got 40 feet to go just to get to normal. Gesssshhhhh11
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Fabio's ugly.



just like mr lanzoni.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


and if we get into another drought?
(quite possible this summer), are they just gonna pull that out?
I would think if that legislation was still active, somebody would be on top of it to mention it.
If we get into a severe drought and someone brings it up, and it goes into effect, atlanta is going to have a major problem.


Not just Atlanta but many in the FL Panhandle as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dogsgomoo:


http://www.ajc.com/news/high-court-grants-georgia -1464315.html Seems that GA is on the "winning" side right now. But I doubt this will be resolved fully any time soon. Especially if the erratic rainfall patterns hold across South GA and Florida panhandle.


oh, ok,
i thought the ruling was that we could appeal, but i guess it is more than that.
Maybe those at the court didnt want to be there with no water to drink
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
In the near future, anthropogenic extinction scenarios exist: global nuclear annihilation or global accidental pandemic; besides natural ones: bolide impact and large scale volcanism or other catastrophic climate change. Both natural causes have occurred repeatedly in the geologic past and there is no reason to consider them unlikely in the future. As technology develops, there is a possibility that humans may be deliberately destroyed by the actions of a rogue state or individual in a form of global suicide attack, but this is balanced by the possibility that technological advancement may resolve or prevent potential extinction scenarios. In bold that is why we have to be very cautious with who we fight with and not to let weapons of mass destruction end up in the wrong hands.


This may sound like doom and gloom but it has happened in the Earth's geologic past:

-Loss of a breathable atmosphere, for example due to an anoxic event.

-Occurrence of a large-scale volcanism, possibly a supervolcano (250 million years ago, after the Permian–Triassic extinction event life on land took 30 million years to recover).[1]

-Extreme ice age leading to prolonged global drought. An ice age can be a result of a nuclear winter or natural forces.

Human Extinction
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
I see we got the chart on the blog today... Definitely a sign of doom.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837

240 hours out
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Fabio's ugly.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

There is no permafrost in SE Alaska where this landslide occurred.
Well, not anymore, apparently; it's all melted. ;-)

Joking aside, articles about the recent Lituya landslide (a five-mile runout!!!) have quoted scientists as stating that, even discounting this event, there has been an increase in such events worldwide as of late as permafrost--that is, the icy glue that holds the loose rocks together--destabilizes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


and if we get into another drought?
(quite possible this summer), are they just gonna pull that out?
I would think if that legislation was still active, somebody would be on top of it to mention it.
If we get into a severe drought and someone brings it up, and it goes into effect, atlanta is going to have a major problem.


http://www.ajc.com/news/high-court-grants-georgia -1464315.html Seems that GA is on the "winning" side right now. But I doubt this will be resolved fully any time soon. Especially if the erratic rainfall patterns hold across South GA and Florida panhandle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
216 hours in
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
335. yoboi
Quoting BobWallace:
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet may be picking up.

The bridge (and some other infrastructure) at Kangerlussaq has been wiped out by a flooded river which originates in the ice.

Flow measurements are now about 3,500,000 liters per second. The former record was around 2,000,000 liter/second.

Don't know if this a generalized or only a localized event, but best to start paying attention. If generalized then sea level rise estimates might need an update and upsizing.

Or perhaps we can get the North Carolina legislature to write a bill forbidding the Greenland ice sheet from melting....


what yr did this happen?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
north pole cam 1
watchin ice melt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That was a big to do a few years ago when most of the SE US was in a severe drought.


and if we get into another drought?
(quite possible this summer), are they just gonna pull that out?
I would think if that legislation was still active, somebody would be on top of it to mention it.
If we get into a severe drought and someone brings it up, and it goes into effect, atlanta is going to have a major problem.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
greenland summit base web cam


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

There is no permafrost in SE Alaska where this landslide occurred.


It was mentioned in the article but here is the quote and link:

"We are seeing an increase in rock slides in mountain areas throughout the world because of permafrost degradation," said Geertsema.

"I don't know whether permafrost degradation played a role here, but we can be almost certain that permafrost exists on Lituya Mountain," said Geertsema, who reviewed aerial photos of the mountain and slide area. "Certainly this type of event could happen from permafrost degradation."


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Must see video of a woman fishing.

Big shark steals woman’s first catch



I saw that on NBC..I think that was near Myrtle Beach, SC in an inlet.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
Quoting weatherneophyte:


Well, it was meant as humor, but come on. The "AGW believers (because it's a fact)" tell us over and over what the CLIMATE is going to be like in 5 or 10 years. And the "AGW believers (because it's a fact)" will tell you over and over that climate is much, much more complicated that WEATHER. But those same ones can't predict what the WEATHER will be like next week (remember, weather is much simpler than climate). Just some thoughts that come to mind when I read the endless "proof" of AGW.


You aren't reading anything. At least it is clear from your comment that you are not.

You're arguing from the point of ignorance, which makes any argument you attempt to build extremely weak to begin with. Then you proceed to build upon your flawed premise with deliberate falsehoods.

I suggest you start with getting a basic understanding of the difference between climate and weather, the methods used for analyzing them, and the results attained from that analysis and what it can be used for.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whoo hoo!!! We gots us de chart!

De chart! De chart!

[Wonder if anybody in here remembers that show.... lol]

Thanks, Doc... I plussed that one right away, because you finally - FINALLY! - held out hope for some activity... not that we didn't know better than to expect much in the ATL in the first 1/2 of July, but it's great to be getting to the second, more interesting segment of the month.... :o)

And an excellent good afternoon to all, from the one who is off work early this afternoon... best start to Friday and the weekend is being about to beat the Friday afternoon traffic by getting home early, and to kick back and enjoy a cool milky coffee, piping a/c, and some blogging...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobWallace:
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet may be picking up.

The bridge (and some other infrastructure) at Kangerlussaq has been wiped out by a flooded river which originates in the ice.

Flow measurements are now about 3,500,000 liters per second. The former record was around 2,000,000 liter/second.

Don't know if this a generalized or only a localized event, but best to start paying attention. If generalized then sea level rise estimates might need an update and upsizing.

Or perhaps we can get the North Carolina legislature to write a bill forbidding the Greenland ice sheet from melting....


faster and faster we go


sorry chuck on with the show
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Earth, over the billions of years before Humans, has cooled and warmed many times before. At the end of the day (this current period), whether the observed warming trends/effects are human caused or a natural cycle, the net effect is the same regardless of which side of the debate you may be on. Except that 7 Billion peoples lives (current Earth population)hangs in the balance this time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes, we've got hurricane FabioCI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 982.3mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.6

EP, 06, 2012071318, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1110W, 70, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FABIO, D,
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
so Fabio is now a hurricane in ATCF files.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Does anyone know what happened with the GA-FL-AL tri-state water dispute?

Last i remember the 3 states were supposed to reach a deal by 3 years from 17 July 2009, which is fast approaching, but i dont remember a deal, but nobody is arguing(partly because the lake in question, Lake Lanier, is mostly full right not).
Is that ruling still effective?
Or did they reach a deal or something else?
Thx for any help if anyone in the area knows


That was a big to do a few years ago when most of the SE US was in a severe drought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Water Level
640.01 FEET
Friday, July 13, 2012
10:05:00 AM
Level is 40.99 feet
below full pool of 681.00
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
MSNBC story on the landslide in Alaska. Melting permafrost (on a large scale) as a possible culprit:

Sharman, the park ecologist, echoed that sentiment, saying he's heard from experts that "they would not be surprised" to see more such landslides inside the national park if temperatures continue to warm.

"Certainly we are seeing an increase in large landslides over the past decades," Geertsema said, citing his 2006 study that found between 1973 and 2003 the average in northern British Columbia increased from 1.3 large landslides per year to 2.3.

Moreover, he said, most of the slides in northern British Columbia are happening in the warmest years.


Just adding another dimension to the issues.......

There is no permafrost in SE Alaska where this landslide occurred.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18753
Must see video of a woman fishing.

Big shark steals womans first catch

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone know what happened with the GA-FL-AL tri-state water dispute?

Last i remember the 3 states were supposed to reach a deal by 3 years from 17 July 2009, which is fast approaching, but i dont remember a deal, but nobody is arguing(partly because the lake in question, Lake Lanier, is mostly full right not).
Is that ruling still effective?
Or did they reach a deal or something else?
Thx for any help if anyone in the area knows

Tri-State Water Dispute
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
The Media? What does the mass media have to do with science, fact, or research? Journalists and "commentators" routinely get terminology and basic scientific laws and concepts wrong. Even some science writers do this simply because they do not have the time to delve deeper. Media goes for the most juicy bit of story they can scribe into two or three paragraphs or into a minute of sound bites. They need an audience or they don't get paid.

Basing your science and understanding of the physical world from mass media is like basing your understanding of issues from election ads on TV and talk radio. You can get some important info but it's never the full picture.

The AIDS epidemic is still slowly growing and killing off hundreds of thousands of people with ~30 million currently infected; it didn't decimate nearly as many people as fast as some predicted not because retroviruses don't exist or that AIDS isn't deadly, but because of research, funding, studies, policies, medication, treatment programs, safe sex initiatives, and all sorts of hard and soft science. (Though there's still debate about a lot of it. Debate never stops.)

"Killer" bee colonies are routinely being found further north and active eradication / domestication campaigns are under way in many states to try and either curb their spread or curb their aggressiveness. Again, the problem was and is being addressed by scientific study and application of research and observation. Not because the media focused their frenzied attention onto something else.

The fact that the media blew what scientists were saying in the mid 90's way out of proportion isn't exactly the fault of the scientists and doesn't mean killer bees or HIV do not exist or were never problems to begin with.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just got back from the doctor and my arm is cleared. I am able to go back to living my normal unbroken life. As for the tropics, Fabio is looking more and more like a hurricane.
As for Emilia, she doesn't look to good and should dissapate shortly.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
168 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
18z Best Track up to 70kts.

EP, 06, 2012071318, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1110W, 70, 986, HU

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327
Another tropical day in C FL.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SteveDa1:


I hope so. With all this tension between denialists and AGW "believers", I have a hard time interpreting it as sarcastic humour.


*sigh*

Science is backed up by fact, research, and observation. It doesn't matter how strongly a scientist wants to believe otherwise, the data is the data.

A skeptic is someone who thinks the science may be incomplete, and has a good understanding of the state of the science they are questioning. Skeptics are very useful in science as they help to improve the science. They, also do not rely on belief.

Deniers base their arguments on belief, similar to creationists. No amount of science, data, or observations will ever change their belief. They usually attempt to bend and twist existing science in such a way as to make it appear that it supports their claims, but you won't find them writing any models or publishing any scientific papers in respectable journals. You can and will find many internet sites with inflammatory headlines, empty rhetoric, and pseudo-scientific nonsense though. Their goal is to derail the science, often under the guidance of well-monied financial backers who have something to gain or lose from impeding or burying scientific results.

So no, this isn't a conflict of ideologies where both sides "believe" they are right (like politics, for example). This is a case where one side has large amounts of science, observation, and research to support their position, and the other simply refuse to accept or acknowledge it out of "belief".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Geesh. I heard that Lake Travis pretty much supplies water for many areas around Lake Travis. Is this true?


Yes near the Austin area. Houston's water supply comes from Lake Houston and Lake Conroe and as last resort Lake Livingston. Lake Houston and Conroe have had their fair share of water. Which is a great thing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
150 PM AST FRI JUL 13 2012

PRC019-039-054-073-091-101-107-149-132045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0277.120713T1750Z-120713T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-JAYUYA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-
OROCOVIS PR-VILLALBA PR-
150 PM AST FRI JUL 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...FLORIDA...JAYUYA...MANATI. ..MOROVIS...
OROCOVIS AND VILLALBA

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 145 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES IN THE LAST HOUR AND ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1821 6631 1817 6635 1817 6639 1816 6640
1817 6643 1815 6643 1827 6660 1828 6660
1830 6657 1832 6658 1833 6661 1841 6654

$$

FIGUEROA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327

Viewing: 361 - 311

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
64 °F
Light Rain