July Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

Share this Blog
60
+

It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.


Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 411 - 361

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48Blog Index

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Baha did you respond to everything you wanted to?
just makin' sure :)
Nah... I missed a few so I did another post... lol

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Is anybody up for a GS signature terrible idea?

No thanks.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
Derived from the 13July6pmGMT (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormEmilia:
Its vector had changed from 12.3mph(19.8km/h) West to 14.4mph(23.2km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had decreased from 55knots(63mph)102km/h to 45knots(52mph)83km/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 994millibars to 996millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Emilia's path...
HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego :: CSL is CaboSanLucas

Easternmost dot on the kinked line is where TS.Emilia became HurricaneEmilia
Westernmost dot on the kinked line is where H.Emilia became a TropicalStorm again
Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Emilia's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Emilias's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii's coastline
13July12amGMT: H.Emilia had been headed toward passing 221miles(355kilometres) South of Hawaii
(nearest dot north of the straightline)
13July6amGMT: TS.Emilia had been headed toward passing 397miles(640kilometres) South of Hawaii
(dot immediately south of the straightline)
13July12pmGMT: TS.Emilia had been headed toward passing 50miles(81kilometres) South of Hawaii
(dot nearest the island)
13July6pmGMT: TS.Emilia was heading toward passing 364miles(586kilometres) South of Hawaii
in ~5days10hours from now

Copy&paste 8.8n156.5w, hi25, 15.708n155.462w, 13.186n154.858w, 18.183n155.69w, san, csl, 12.0n108.7w- 12.4n109.4w- 12.8n110.5w- 13.2n111.7w- 13.4n112.5w- 13.6n113.3w- 13.8n114.1w- 14.2n115.1w- 14.5n116.2w- 14.6n117.0w- 14.7n117.8w- 14.9n118.6w- 15.1n119.7w- 15.1n120.9w- 15.2n121.9w- 15.3n123.0w- 15.3n124.2w, 15.3n124.2w-15.5n125.4w, 15.5n125.4w-15.5n126.7w, 15.5n125.4w-13.668n154.971w, 18.911n155.681w-13.665n154.97w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rain is NW and W of me today, more Jackyl to listen to.

Just read interesting story about advancement in jean production - really green jeans - Advanced Denim process can make jeans using 92% less water and 30% less energy. Considering the number of jeans produced yearly, quite a reduction! Lets hear it for scientists, they don't just spend our money, usually they save us money and improve our lives and enviroment. Why all this anti-science baloney is even allowed to rear its ignorant head is beyond me.

An hour and half from joining Pat enjoying a local watering hole and hoping the light blue over me in 378 means I might glimpse the AB after sunset. Enjoy your weekend everybody!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Vorticty increasing in the Gulf and under this ULL east of the Bahamas.

Is because wind shear is decreasing near the ULL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Is anybody up for a GS signature terrible idea?


Ummm, no
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N89W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BEING PUSHED FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N83W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 31N84W IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...TO A 1015 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W...TO 26N85W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND-TO-23N83W LINE...AND FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND
90W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER AND ALONG THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND
MEXICO FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR FORECAST FOR THE PRESENT TIME.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
Well, time to head to the Smokehouse to have a cold one with the other old folks. You young'ns stop feeding the monkeys. It's painful watching them sling their own poo back at you. Y'all have a nice weekend...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Red_Bay

NEXRAD Radar

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation

Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128685
Is anybody up for a GS signature terrible idea?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
I don't think Baha was finished, GS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, this a.m. I had the fascinating experience of being rained on by a cloud - just one - that was way over there in the NE corner of the sky. We had fully clear skies out overhead and in the three other compass directions. And that one incy wincy cloud soaked my location in about 5 minutes... If the rain can do it, it makes much sense that the electricity could do it too...


Simple. The flair lasts 24 hours. 12:12:12 in every time zone....

Diving is more fun, especially if u can do a backflip on the way out...



um, diving is fun most of the time.
have several friends with back injuries from diving of 3m boards and landing "off".

since he wants ease and no pain, he should jump
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Fabio:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Actually Baha (#395) the flare wouldn't have to last 24 hours. If it is strong enough it will bend around to the other side of the Earth and puncture there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Copy dat Houston..

We see your Low.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128685
Quoting aspectre:
14 KEHCharleston: A question, if you please.
My granddaughter just asked a question that has me stumped (though I should probably know the answer).
Can there be lightning without rain (meaning rain clouds, not that it is actually raining)?


July 31, CANONSBURG, Pa. (AP) -- An 11-year-old western Pennsylvania girl is recovering after she was struck by a bolt from the blue. Lisa Wehrle tells the Observer-Reporter newspaper of Washington, Pa., that the sun was shining when her daughter, Britney, was struck by lightning Friday, apparently from a storm several miles away.
Lisa Wehrle says, "There was no rain. It was a beautiful day. All she heard was some thunder."
The lightning hit Britney as she was walking down a hill in North Strabane Township with a friend about 2:30 p.m. that day. The bolt hit her on the left shoulder, leaving a burn-like mark and exited her wrist, where it left another mark. She was treated at a Pittsburgh hospital. Doctors discovered her arm was broken, but otherwise she's OK.

Bolts from the Blue [can] travel more than 25 miles away from the thunderstorm cloud. Bolt from the Blue lightning flashes are a particularly dangerous type of lightning flash, as they appear to come out of clear sky. This type of lightning is why it is dangerous to be outside when thunderstorms are in the region, even when skies are still clear. Lightning can, and does, strike many miles away from the thunderstorm cloud itself. It is a good idea to wait 30 minutes or more after the rain ends before resuming outdoor activities.

As a kid exploring the neighborhood "forest" on a bright sunny Tennessee day, I was "shock&awe"d by a tremendous BOOM and a FLASH that lit up the immediate landscape even more than the Sun. Then there was a heavy THUD immediately behind me.
Turned around and discovered that a major tree limb had almost fallen on top of me.
A smouldering tree limb. And when I looked up, a smoking tree.
Hied it to the nearest house and had them call the fire department.
Near as we could tell, I had come way too darn close to being hit by clear-air lightning.
There was no thunder either before or after that bolt from the blue.
And the clouds far away did not appear to be raining: ie there was no grayish area beneath them indicative of rain or virga (rain that evaporates before it hits the ground).
Well, this a.m. I had the fascinating experience of being rained on by a cloud - just one - that was way over there in the NE corner of the sky. We had fully clear skies out overhead and in the three other compass directions. And that one incy wincy cloud soaked my location in about 5 minutes... If the rain can do it, it makes much sense that the electricity could do it too...


Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe this isnt the maximum :O

mabye the end of the world is when a gigantic solar flare explodes with all its got into a massive off the charts CME and fries the earth.
How the dark side of the earth dies we still have to figure out

jk
Simple. The flare lasts 24 hours. 12:12:12 in every time zone....

Quoting wxchaser97:

But sadly, looking at the new modle runs, that wont happen soon. Are we diving or jumping off?
Diving is more fun, especially if u can do a backflip on the way out...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128685
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
392. yoboi
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no booze.
Anything capable of making your brain functions impaired probably isnt wise to intake.


Remember, everything is poisonous, good things just require a higher dosage.
Something that gets you drunk in 5 bottles isnt quite a good thing

just saying, dont get mad at me


posting on this site at times can impair ya.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


being a swimmer i choose jumping, wouldnt want to associate any of the blogs follies with swimming and diving
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I would go with jumping. We need something to track already.
I say jumping since less injuries and easy resurfacing. As I said last night:This wave should clear any dry air issues and the water should begin to warm. This blog needs an Atlantic system or it wil just self destruct.
Hurricane Fabio is loking decsent as of right now:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
Quoting yoboi:



who sang that song????


Its a saying when I was growing up when we school people who dip into conversations and dont know the whole story..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15687
Astrometeor: My grandfather will celebrate his birthday. That's something. otherwise winter starts right around there.
382 GTcooliebai: That's cool, my birthday is the 20th, so you know I will be stacked with the booze. Might as well go out with a bang!

And an efficient way to never become a grandfather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Vorticty increasing in the Gulf and under this ULL east of the Bahamas.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
387. yoboi
Quoting ncstorm:
Always dipping and dappening and dont know whats happening..



who sang that song????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's cool, my birthday is the 20th, so you know I will be stacked with the booze. Might as well go out with a bang!


no booze.
Anything capable of making your brain functions impaired probably isnt wise to intake.


Remember, everything is poisonous, good things just require a higher dosage.
Something that gets you drunk in 5 bottles isnt quite a good thing

just saying, dont get mad at me
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Always dipping and dappening and dont know whats happening..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15687
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST FRI JUL 13 2012


THE TUTT LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THIS FEATURE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONCENTRATE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO BUT WINDS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT SE COMPONENT THEREFORE SHOWERS
COULD ALSO AFFECT SOME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 54 W...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST...REACHING OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14336
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yep the longer we go the more likely Ernesto becomes this season's first major hurricane, especially as the Cape Verde season gets cranking, and those waters haven't been tapped yet.


It's funny how during El-Nino years you get all of these ULL's all over the place.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Astrometeor:


my grandfather will celebrate his birthday. thats something. otherwise winter starts right around there.
That's cool, my birthday is the 20th, so you know I will be stacked with the booze. Might as well go out with a bang!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Baha did you respond to everything you wanted to?
just makin' sure


LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..we are getting closer to dec 21st..mark my words..something..will happen on THAT day..just because sooo many know that date and what it stands for....maybe a huge terrorist attack?..man made destruction?..i dunno


my grandfather will celebrate his birthday. thats something. otherwise winter starts right around there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I would go with jumping. We need something to track already.
Yep the longer we go the more likely Ernesto becomes this season's first major hurricane, especially as the Cape Verde season gets cranking, and those waters haven't been tapped yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
378. MTWX
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Northern lights are extremely difficult to predict but may be visible from the far north US tomorrow.


Current Auroral Oval



Observers in North America should watch for aurora on the nights of the 14th and 15th local time. Depending on the configuration of the disturbance, auroras may be visible as far south as the middle tier of states.
Activity may remain high also on the 16th.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Baha did you respond to everything you wanted to?
just makin' sure :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


being a swimmer i choose jumping, wouldnt want to associate any of the blogs follies with swimming and diving


I would go with jumping. We need something to track already.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe this isnt the maximum :O

mabye the end of the world is when a gigantic solar flare explodes with all its got into a massive off the charts CME and fries the earth.
How the dark side of the earth dies we still have to figure out

jk


you would think the dark side would be spared or at least not as fried
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

But sadly, looking at the new modle runs, that wont happen soon. Are we diving or jumping off?


being a swimmer i choose jumping, wouldnt want to associate any of the blogs follies with swimming and diving
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting yoboi:


i wish ya could choose the voices on them, i have had times when an alert went off and i was having a really good dream and that noaa dude voice really killed the mood. i want a frech accent lady voice....
Only problem is, you might never wake up.

Quoting Ameister12:
I'm sure it's safe to say, Fabio is a hurricane.
Whoa... looking good there, Fabio... I can see u are trying to earn that Fab Fab nomen...

Quoting ncstorm:


You shouldnt have to explain why you plussed a comment..this blog gets more outrageous every day..

Geez. Maybe she just wanted to.

Quoting 19N81W:
dont need a hurricane but some good afternoon tstorms would be nice! not even getting those....
Don't mean to brag, but we've been getting something every little while... It's great to see everything so green this summer.

Quoting WxGeekVA:
Happy Birthday Harrison Ford!

Course, Mr. Ford doesn't look so much like that anymore these days... lol

Wonder if he blogs on the Wunderground...

Quoting bappit:

We be trollin!
Hey, if u can't have a little fun on a Friday p.m. when can u... lol

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
MSNBC story on the landslide in Alaska. Melting permafrost (on a large scale) as a possible culprit:

Sharman, the park ecologist, echoed that sentiment, saying he's heard from experts that "they would not be surprised" to see more such landslides inside the national park if temperatures continue to warm.

"Certainly we are seeing an increase in large landslides over the past decades," Geertsema said, citing his 2006 study that found between 1973 and 2003 the average in northern British Columbia increased from 1.3 large landslides per year to 2.3.

Moreover, he said, most of the slides in northern British Columbia are happening in the warmest years.


Just adding another dimension to the issues.......
Very interesting. Goes back to the story I read yesterday about the snow slip near Chamonix, France.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..interesting, how far south would they see the northern lights now


The northern u.s. might be able to see the auroras at night around sunset, but to the untrained eye you won't notice them. This far south they will be red and blend in with the sunset.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
............................................gee we need a storm in the atlantic..we are going off the deep end now, geez

But sadly, looking at the new modle runs, that wont happen soon. Are we diving or jumping off?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


weak wave, and then its gone


What I was trying to say is the model has shown this since the 10th.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14336
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Northern lights are extremely difficult to predict but may be visible from the far north US tomorrow.
And away from the city lights like more towards the rural areas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..we are getting closer to dec 21st..mark my words..something..will happen on THAT day..just because sooo many know that date and what it stands for....maybe a huge terrorist attack?..man made destruction?..i dunno

I imagine *something* will happen. I intend, for instance, to drop a hot dog with the works in a busy intersection.

That's something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

There is no permafrost in SE Alaska where this landslide occurred.


Huh? There's plenty of permafrost. The mountains in the area (also home to many glaciers) are covered in permafrost.

The attribution to warming being the culprit is pure speculation at this point. While studies have shown a recent increase in these types of landsides due to warmer temperatures, there a other things that can trigger such an event. The analysis of the debris should give a good indication of what the culprit was.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
kwgirl, why are you always lurking?
we know you are around. :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
............................................gee we need a storm in the atlantic..we are going off the deep end now, geez
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39276
Quoting GTcooliebai:
In the near future, anthropogenic extinction scenarios exist: global nuclear annihilation or global accidental pandemic; besides natural ones: bolide impact and large scale volcanism or other catastrophic climate change. Both natural causes have occurred repeatedly in the geologic past and there is no reason to consider them unlikely in the future. As technology develops, there is a possibility that humans may be deliberately destroyed by the actions of a rogue state or individual in a form of global suicide attack, but this is balanced by the possibility that technological advancement may resolve or prevent potential extinction scenarios. In bold that is why we have to be very cautious with who we fight with and not to let weapons of mass destruction end up in the wrong hands.


This may sound like doom and gloom but it has happened in the Earth's geologic past:

-Loss of a breathable atmosphere, for example due to an anoxic event.

-Occurrence of a large-scale volcanism, possibly a supervolcano (250 million years ago, after the Permian–Triassic extinction event life on land took 30 million years to recover).[1]

-Extreme ice age leading to prolonged global drought. An ice age can be a result of a nuclear winter or natural forces.

Human Extinction
..we are getting closer to dec 21st..mark my words..something..will happen on THAT day..just because sooo many know that date and what it stands for....maybe a huge terrorist attack?..man made destruction?..i dunno
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39276
Quoting LargoFl:
..interesting, how far south would they see the northern lights now

Northern lights are extremely difficult to predict but may be visible from the far north US tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


To all deniers: Even if climate change isn't real, the least that could happen is that we create a better world to live in.


I gotta hand it to you...almost as many plusses as the Doc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 411 - 361

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
54 °F
Scattered Clouds