July Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

Share this Blog
60
+

It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.


Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 461 - 411

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48Blog Index

Quoting redwagon:

Hard to have faith after the last 18 months of drought, but the PAC has been kind to us, a saviour, really. Co-Models Cindy Crawford, Claudia Schiffer and Heidi Klum want to send Fabio to Baha, which should provide some good moisture if we have any fronts or other agents to work with him.

In the meantime, the GOM low might elect to manifest a coastal sfc low, like that Anti-cyclone did ten days or so ago.

There's always hope.
There is always hope, I don't think it will develope, but you never know.
Dr M did say that 2 cold fronts will hit the gulf coast and SE US in 2 weeks and will be watched for development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
My instincts about the Mayans is that they had some formes of technology - obviously easily destroyed - that enabled them to gather information in a more scientific manner than we have been led to believe. There is some evidence to suggest that there was a climate shift which their knowledge base did not allow them to predict effectively, and this led to the relatively swift disintigration of the centralized society. A lot of the Mayan information IIRC, had already been lost or hidden away prior to the arrival of the Spaniards, but certainly anything that survived to that point was destroyed by the arrogant Europeans.

The Mayan calendar thing is a bit of a crock, IMO [I tend to go by the Biblical "no man knows the day nor the hour"] but there's absolutely masses of very interesting information about the Mayans out there.
..it would amaze me IF...what the saw coming was...dont laugh ok....what if they knew...Global warming was coming, so bad it would be the end game...an earth shift, moving closer to the sun etc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


From USA Today:

It's a bad year for people who suffer from paraskevidekatriaphobia — the fear of Friday the 13th.

Why? There are three this year, instead of the usual two. There was one in 2011.

That's not all. For the first time since 1984, those three Friday the 13ths — Jan. 13, April 13 and July 13 — are exactly 13 weeks apart.






I would have thought your attention would be more focused on

friggatriskaidekaphobia

: )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
You know, I don't see the Nassau Hurricane of 1926 on the Doc's map above... it is one of the few major storms that have formed in July...

1926 Nassau Hurricane
Formed July 22, 1926
Dissipated August 2, 1926
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
140 mph (220 km/h)
Lowest pressure %u2264 967 mbar (hPa); 28.56 inHg
Fatalities 287 direct


Detailed account is here. Monthly Weather Review for 1926.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

FLZ050-132030-
PINELLAS-
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM VENETIAN ISLES TO 6
MILES EAST OF FORT DESOTO PARK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMETTO...MOVING
WEST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING VENETIAN
ISLES...SNELL ISLE...VINOY PARK AND DOWNTOWN SAINT
PETERSBURG...UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY
RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER
VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2806 8283 2806 8280 2808 8278 2807 8266
2795 8271 2782 8259 2770 8263 2769 8265
2769 8271 2767 8270 2767 8267 2761 8273
2772 8275 2780 8281 2789 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 093DEG 16KT 2784 8266 2760 8267

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..ok i'll bite..im half way between 2 and 3...ive read to much on the mayan culture to out of hand discard what they found was going to happen..i do..somehow disbelieve that OUR calander is the same as theirs and dec 21st is the day...remember one thing..for a people without the knowledge of electricity etc, they had an amzing knowledge of the stars and how things work in relation to the earth, even today we are finding buried facts that even today still amaze us in HOW these people KNEW this or that without telescopes etc...so in a way im game..maybe for dec 21 for something to happen..big time, maybe..an earth axis shift..i dunno..but they knew something we dont, and im only sorry the spanish when they went in there and destroyed everything they could...maybe they destroyed the one thing that for sure would have told us..what was going to happen..now we wait and we shall see.
My instincts about the Mayans is that they had some formes of technology - obviously easily destroyed - that enabled them to gather information in a more scientific manner than we have been led to believe. There is some evidence to suggest that there was a climate shift which their knowledge base did not allow them to predict effectively, and this led to the relatively swift disintigration of the centralized society. A lot of the Mayan information IIRC, had already been lost or hidden away prior to the arrival of the Spaniards, but certainly anything that survived to that point was destroyed by the arrogant Europeans.

The Mayan calendar thing is a bit of a crock, IMO [I tend to go by the Biblical "no man knows the day nor the hour"] but there's absolutely masses of very interesting information about the Mayans out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
I think that since it still weak, close to land, and still a ULL to its SW that the low wont develope. Everyone is entitled to their own faith and no one can stop anyone from believing.

Hard to have faith after the last 18 months of drought, but the PAC has been kind to us, a saviour, really. Co-Models Cindy Crawford, Claudia Schiffer and Heidi Klum want to send Fabio to Baha, which should provide some good moisture if we have any fronts or other agents to work with him.

In the meantime, the GOM low might elect to manifest a coastal sfc low, like that Anti-cyclone did ten days or so ago.

There's always hope.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
............................BIG boomers with this
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Astrometeor:


We've had CME's from X flares before and this type of damage rarely occurs. At worst we could see a Quebec blackout again... I don't see anything happening.
I dunno, on the radio they seemed a lil more concerned this time..well i just hope..the internet doesnt go out huh lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

FLC071-132100-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0043.120713T2000Z-120713T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LEE FL-
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAPE CORAL


* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2658 8207 2666 8209 2670 8208 2676 8206
2676 8204 2675 8192 2673 8187 2658 8190
2652 8199

$$







------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
407 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

FLZ060-062-065-132045-
SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
407 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEE...SARASOTA AND WESTERN
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSCAR SCHERER STATE
PARK TO ENGLEWOOD TO BURNT STORE MARINA TO ESTERO...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF VENICE TO ENGLEWOOD TO 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CAPE CORAL TO 6 MILES EAST OF FORT MYERS BEACH...MOVING
WEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING MYAKKA
RIVER STATE PARK...WARM MINERAL SPRINGS...GULF COVE...
SARASOTA...VENICE...BOCA GRANDE AND PIRATE HARBOR...UNTIL 445 PM
EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2640 8191 2647 8198 2644 8203 2649 8220
2682 8229 2731 8258 2732 8228 2717 8226
2695 8207 2692 8217 2678 8214 2675 8224
2669 8223 2669 8209 2692 8211 2694 8206
2676 8190 2667 8169 2646 8164 2635 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 093DEG 12KT 2718 8244 2701 8237
2671 8211 2647 8187

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..ok i'll bite..im half way between 2 and 3...ive read to much on the mayan culture to out of hand discard what they fouind was going to happen..i do..somehow disbelieve that OUR calander is the same as theirs and dec 21st is the day...remember one thing..for a people without the knowledge of electricity etc, they had an amzing knowledge of the stars and how things work in relation to the earth, even today we are finding buried facts that even today still amaze us in HOW these people KNEW this or that without telescopes etc...so in a way im game..maybe for dec 21 for something to happen..big time, maybe..an earth axis shift..i dunno..but they knew something we dont, and im only sorry the spanish when they went in there and destroyed everything they could...maybe they destroyed the one thing that for sure would have told us..what was going to happen..now we wait and we shall see.


I am going to buy the next Mayan long calendar and become immune to anything bad that might happen on that day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting icmoore:
img src="Photobucket">

A little rain coming to Madeira Beach.
..yes almost here as well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Buggin Out for Now.......Have a Good Weekend Folks.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
Quoting BahaHurican:
You know, I don't see the Nassau Hurricane of 1926 on the Doc's map above... it is one of the few major storms that have formed in July...

1926 Nassau HurricaneFormed July 22, 1926
Dissipated August 2, 1926
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
140 mph (220 km/h)
Lowest pressure ≤ 967 mbar (hPa); 28.56 inHg
Fatalities 287 direct



Damm all the way up the FL east coast. That must have been a dousy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just as I was writing the last post I got this
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

FLC071-132100-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0043.120713T2000Z-120713T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LEE FL-
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAPE CORAL


* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

Makes sense when you have gotten more than 1.8 inches of rain with rain rates of 2-3 In. per hour overhead
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..well we will get a glimpse saturday when that huge solar flare hits us tomorrow morning, maybe power grids out, telephone and electronic things poof..maybe the first sign of whats to come?...i just dont want to see..hmmm say sept..volcano's acting up..THEN i will start believing..maybe lol


We've had CME's from X flares before and this type of damage rarely occurs. At worst we could see a Quebec blackout again... I don't see anything happening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

The only thing that will happen is that people will be divided into 3 groups:

1. The people that only know it is Friday, December 21.
2. The people waiting anxiously for the armageddon
3. The people laughing at #2, as we use the occasion to throw a random party, knowing full good and well the media and a few nutcases hyped it up.
..ok i'll bite..im half way between 2 and 3...ive read to much on the mayan culture to out of hand discard what they found was going to happen..i do..somehow disbelieve that OUR calander is the same as theirs and dec 21st is the day...remember one thing..for a people without the knowledge of electricity etc, they had an amzing knowledge of the stars and how things work in relation to the earth, even today we are finding buried facts that even today still amaze us in HOW these people KNEW this or that without telescopes etc...so in a way im game..maybe for dec 21 for something to happen..big time, maybe..an earth axis shift..i dunno..but they knew something we dont, and im only sorry the spanish when they went in there and destroyed everything they could...maybe they destroyed the one thing that for sure would have told us..what was going to happen..now we wait and we shall see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
img src="Photobucket">

A little rain coming to Madeira Beach.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:

My faith in that little mid-GOM Low is restored now that the dry air has been mixed out. Again, if you can see something trying to form in the gulf, it generally does.
Still trying to get something tropical to the Highland Lakes, time's about out.
I think that since it still weak, close to land, and still a ULL to its SW that the low wont develope. Everyone is entitled to their own faith and no one can stop anyone from believing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..well we will get a glimpse saturday when that huge solar flare hits us tomorrow morning, maybe power grids out, telephone and electronic things poof..maybe the first sign of whats to come?...i just dont want to see..hmmm say sept..volcano's acting up..THEN i will start believing..maybe lol



"At this point, I think the impact is going to be relatively minor,"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MTWX:


Definitely fall in that third category! Heck I didn't even realize it was on a Friday... LOL!


From USA Today:

It's a bad year for people who suffer from paraskevidekatriaphobia — the fear of Friday the 13th.

Why? There are three this year, instead of the usual two. There was one in 2011.

That's not all. For the first time since 1984, those three Friday the 13ths — Jan. 13, April 13 and July 13 — are exactly 13 weeks apart.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting MTWX:


Definitely fall in that third category! Heck I didn't even realize it was on a Friday... LOL!


Friday the 21st; the new Friday the 13.

I fall in the fourth category. I waste the day away and wake up the next day and say," What?! Yesterday was the 21st? Huh, I'm still alive."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You know, I don't see the Nassau Hurricane of 1926 on the Doc's map above... it is one of the few major storms that have formed in July...

1926 Nassau Hurricane
Formed July 22, 1926
Dissipated August 2, 1926
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
140 mph (220 km/h)
Lowest pressure %u2264 967 mbar (hPa); 28.56 inHg
Fatalities 287 direct

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm in Group #3.
..well we will get a glimpse saturday when that huge solar flare hits us tomorrow morning, maybe power grids out, telephone and electronic things poof..maybe the first sign of whats to come?...i just dont want to see..hmmm say sept..volcano's acting up..THEN i will start believing..maybe lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
435. yoboi
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


151?
now im really lost


did i type 151 backwards???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Nice funnel cloud over Cape Coral today (3:15 PM) I live on the Fort Myers side of the river that bisects Lee County. I could see this funnel, however I was too far away to take a pic. Strong T-storms continuing to build across a line from I-75 in Collier County NNW to I-275/US 19 in Pinellas. Moving W at 10-15 MPH. Stay safe (thunder roars, stay indoorS) But I think you can include funnel clouds in that category!

FM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:


idk this 151 starting to make me see double...


151?
now im really lost
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
432. yoboi
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


good.
what does that have to do with what i asked ?


idk this 151 starting to make me see double...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:

My faith in that little mid-GOM Low is restored now that the dry air has been mixed out. Again, if you can see something trying to form in the gulf, it generally does.
Still trying to get something tropical to the Highland Lakes, time's about out.


It wont form.
your faith is misplaced :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
Quoting yoboi:


im not ya gf..


good.
what does that have to do with what i asked ?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
Quoting wxchaser97:
Homework over summer vacation when I'm supposed to be relaxing! But the boredom is really slowing the blog down. What do you think the NHC will have Fabio's peak intensity at?


I guessed right on Emilia with (140mph)as I went above the forecast of (130). I actually think Fabio will come in under the forecasted max of(85)and will peak at (80mph).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
428. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
The GOM Screaming meemeie rolls on




is there a spin or a drift?? hard to tell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Post tropical storm Daniel is non-existant, Emilia is just a big thunderstorm, and Fabio is intensifying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
426. yoboi
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


can i come?


im not ya gf..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

My faith in that little mid-GOM Low is restored now that the dry air has been mixed out. Again, if you can see something trying to form in the gulf, it generally does.
Still trying to get something tropical to the Highland Lakes, time's about out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:



ya should do a poll with that...


LOL!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The GOM Screaming meemeie rolls on


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm in Group #3.


can i come?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
421. yoboi
Quoting jeffs713:

The only thing that will happen is that people will be divided into 3 groups:

1. The people that only know it is Friday, December 21.
2. The people waiting anxiously for the armageddon
3. The people laughing at #2, as we use the occasion to throw a random party, knowing full good and well the media and a few nutcases hyped it up.



ya should do a poll with that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yesterdays X-1 Flare/CME fitted nicely with the TimeWave Zero Novelty Graph Downward spike for July

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting jeffs713:

The only thing that will happen is that people will be divided into 3 groups:

1. The people that only know it is Friday, December 21.
2. The people waiting anxiously for the armageddon
3. The people laughing at #2, as we use the occasion to throw a random party, knowing full good and well the media and a few nutcases hyped it up.

I'm in Group #3.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
417. MTWX
Quoting jeffs713:

The only thing that will happen is that people will be divided into 3 groups:

1. The people that only know it is Friday, December 21.
2. The people waiting anxiously for the armageddon
3. The people laughing at #2, as we use the occasion to throw a random party, knowing full good and well the media and a few nutcases hyped it up.


Definitely fall in that third category! Heck I didn't even realize it was on a Friday... LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Ok, sinc the vote came in a resounding yes, i say we should all try to find something interesting and weather-related that most of us on the blog havent seen before and then post it sometime tomorrow.

Except me of course.


Should help ease the arguments and boredom.
Homework over summer vacation when I'm supposed to be relaxing! But the boredom is really slowing the blog down. What do you think the NHC will have Fabio's peak intensity at?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..we are getting closer to dec 21st..mark my words..something..will happen on THAT day..just because sooo many know that date and what it stands for....maybe a huge terrorist attack?..man made destruction?..i dunno

The only thing that will happen is that people will be divided into 3 groups:

1. The people that only know it is Friday, December 21.
2. The people waiting anxiously for the armageddon
3. The people laughing at #2, as we use the occasion to throw a random party, knowing full good and well the media and a few nutcases hyped it up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

..Shock da Monkey

Peter Gabriel
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:


Ummm, no
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No thanks.


Ok, sinc the vote came in a resounding yes, i say we should all try to find something interesting and weather-related that most of us on the blog havent seen before and then post it sometime tomorrow.

Except me of course.


Should help ease the arguments and boredom.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
412. yoboi
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Well, time to head to the Smokehouse to have a cold one with the other old folks. You young'ns stop feeding the monkeys. It's painful watching them sling their own poo back at you. Y'all have a nice weekend...


it's better to spank the monkeys than feed the monkeys...IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Baha did you respond to everything you wanted to?
just makin' sure :)
Nah... I missed a few so I did another post... lol

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 461 - 411

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.