July Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

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It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.


Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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511. THL3
What happened to the blog?
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alot of booming thunder and real dark clouds to the south of me, st pete must be getting it had..................................SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
558 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

FLC075-132230-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-120713T2230Z/
LEVY FL-
558 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN LEVY COUNTY...

AT 559 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
FOWLERS BLUFF...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF CEDAR KEY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS
ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2934 8307 2937 8307 2939 8304 2946 8300
2929 8290 2917 8298 2916 8300 2923 8310
2925 8309 2928 8315 2932 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 128DEG 28KT 2930 8302

$$
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
558 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

FLC075-132230-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-120713T2230Z/
LEVY FL-
558 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN LEVY COUNTY...

AT 559 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
FOWLERS BLUFF...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF CEDAR KEY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS
ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2934 8307 2937 8307 2939 8304 2946 8300
2929 8290 2917 8298 2916 8300 2923 8310
2925 8309 2928 8315 2932 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 128DEG 28KT 2930 8302

$$
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Quoting lottotexas:
Oct 29,2002 in Houston was a big flood day.
..well the way its been raining all week long over there, this set up just may be a lil scary
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506 Grothar: I nailed this days ago.

Well, kinda. You did predict the northward turn far earlier than anyone else.
You also predicted that it would be a threat to the mainMexican or the BajaCalifornian coastline.
The prediction models don't include the coastline... as yet.
See, we do pay attention to more than just your jokes.

Let cruise ships at sea beware...
. . . . . Hurricane...

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . and Bodice Ripper
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I nailed this days ago.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23672
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Ok, first af all, never thought I'd read these words together in a sentence. lol And secondly, it looks like El Nino is making his presence known.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
NEXT WEEK.
SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MORE MOIST THAN
NORMAL, THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE FOR CLIMO 30 PERCENT DAYTIME
POPS NEXT WEEK. SOME LOCAL RESEARCH INTO THE LENGTH OF THIS
ONGOING PRECIP EVENT HERE REVEALS THAT OCT OF 2002 SAW A SIMILAR
SETUP WITH AN INCIPIENT EL NINO ACTING UPON A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPED INTO A QUASISTATIONARY LOW OR
UPPER TROF AND A TWO WEEK EVENT SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE. THANKS
TO OUR MR RUA FOR THIS INFO.
Oct 29,2002 in Houston was a big flood day.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I believe you. What would some silly professional, educated, Canada-based natural hazards researcher know about Alaskan or Canadian natural hazards, anyway? ;-)




Charming as ever Nea!
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The three epac storms.


Could be our next one?


The gulf is looking more conducive.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
There is no permafrost in SE Alaska where this landslide occurred.
Oh, I believe you. What would some silly professional, educated, Canada-based natural hazards researcher know about Alaskan or Canadian natural hazards, anyway? ;-)
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........................................st pete you got one coming at ya.
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......................................storms went to the south and north of me, but no rain here today, was actually a very nice summer day here,maybe we will get a shower tomorrow
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I'm late to the party, but here's a map of where one can find permafrost in Alaska. (In response to the claim of no permafrost in the southeast or southwest.)

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, not anymore, apparently; it's all melted. ;-)

Joking aside, articles about the recent Lituya landslide (a five-mile runout!!!) have quoted scientists as stating that, even discounting this event, there has been an increase in such events worldwide as of late as permafrost--that is, the icy glue that holds the loose rocks together--destabilizes.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


It was mentioned in the article but here is the quote and link:

"We are seeing an increase in rock slides in mountain areas throughout the world because of permafrost degradation," said Geertsema.

"I don't know whether permafrost degradation played a role here, but we can be almost certain that permafrost exists on Lituya Mountain," said Geertsema, who reviewed aerial photos of the mountain and slide area. "Certainly this type of event could happen from permafrost degradation."


Link



Ice and glaciers melting as a cause I'll give ya. What I bolded is not the definition of permafrost.

There is no permafrost in SE Alaska where this landslide occurred.

Now, please excuse me. My personal trainer has told me squatting is bad for my knees.
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Ok, first af all, never thought I'd read these words together in a sentence. lol And secondly, it looks like El Nino is making his presence known.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
NEXT WEEK.
SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MORE MOIST THAN
NORMAL, THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE FOR CLIMO 30 PERCENT DAYTIME
POPS NEXT WEEK. SOME LOCAL RESEARCH INTO THE LENGTH OF THIS
ONGOING PRECIP EVENT HERE REVEALS THAT OCT OF 2002 SAW A SIMILAR
SETUP WITH AN INCIPIENT EL NINO ACTING UPON A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPED INTO A QUASISTATIONARY LOW OR
UPPER TROF AND A TWO WEEK EVENT SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE. THANKS
TO OUR MR RUA FOR THIS INFO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OK, 4:30 here, this Irish American is off to the local watering hole for a cold Guiness, hope we get rain, but doubt by now it will help the corn much - may save some beans, especially the ones double cropped into the wheat.

Go Cards!

PatG
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494. etxwx
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



I would have thought your attention would be more focused on

friggatriskaidekaphobia

: )
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Frigga was one of our most revered Norse goddesses. Friday was named after her. I have never suffered from friggatriskaidekaphobia.


Well, that's good. But if you ever find yourself affected, there is treatment available. :-)
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Quoting ncstorm:


Watch the film called "The Knowing"..with Nicholas Cage..very good
No thank you I would rather freeze to death than burn to death.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
you folks from say pennsylvania northward are in for a great northern lights show..if you do..take pics ..PLEASE lol..we wont see it down here in florida grrrrrr................The CME's arrival at Earth will likely spawn moderate geomagnetic storms lasting through Sunday, which may cause temporary disruptions to GPS signals, radio communications and power grids, scientists said.

Geomagnetic storms often generate dramatic aurora displays, which are also known as the northern and southern lights. So aurora fans should definitely crane their necks skyward this weekend.

The latest geomagnetic storm predictions "would indicate aurora down to the northern U.S.," C. Alex Young, a solar astrophysicist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., told Space.com in an email update.
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REVISED FORECAST: The CME launched toward Earth by yesterday's X-flare is moving faster than originally thought. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have revised their forecast accordingly, advancing the cloud's expected arrival time to 09:17 UT (5:17 am EDT) on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th. Because the sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 09:17 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms.
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I'm out for a while... BBL
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PE1NWL's DXrobot - Gouda, The Netherlands

Real-time alerts via e-mail or SMS: Subscribe here. Or click here for more information.

VHF Aurora: View the latest 50, 70 and 144 MHz Aurora spots as detected by the DXrobot (refreshes every 5 min)

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50 MHz E-Skip in EU: View the latest European 50 MHz E-skip spots as detected by the DXrobot (refreshes every 5 min)
144 MHz E-Skip in NA: View the latest North American 144 MHz E-skip spots as detected by the DXrobot (refreshes every 5 min)
Sporadic E Summary Maps: View the daily Sporadic E Summary Maps (EU only) created by the Make More Miles on VHF team (updated daily)
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



I would have thought your attention would be more focused on

friggatriskaidekaphobia

: )


Hey, Frigga was one of our most revered Norse goddesses. Friday was named after her. I have never suffered from friggatriskaidekaphobia.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23672
The latest model run now indicates the CME associated with yesterday's R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event will impact the earth's magnetic field around 9:00 a.m. EDT (1300 UTC) on Saturday, July 14. SWPC is forecasting category G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity then, with a chance of G2 (Moderate) levels at times through July 15. The S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm persists just above event threshold. Region 1520 has decayed in the past 12 hours, but is still potentially eruptive.


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Quoting 470. DavidHOUTX:
I suspect it's a bad thing when the arrow head is on my house. It's probably aiming for the giant circles I like to mow in the pasture.
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
hopefully some of this will reach the dallas area, one guy this morning really needed the rains to come
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One more thing, lets not forget about dissipating Emilia:
...EMILIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 13
Location: 15.5N 127.2W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.5N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.6N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 15.8N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 15.8N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1800Z 15.8N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z 15.5N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z 15.0N 150.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z 15.0N 155.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
I'm out for awhile so bye everyone.
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481. MTWX
This info should help all the Mayan Calendar questions.

Link

Link

And with that... Have a great weekend all! See you on Monday!
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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

EMILIA CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A PATCH OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON A DECREASE OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SINCE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER
COOL WATERS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND EMILIA COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY OR EVEN EARLIER. SOME INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DISSIPATION.

BECAUSE EMILIA HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE
WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD AT 12 TO 14 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.5N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.6N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 15.8N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 15.8N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1800Z 15.8N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z 15.5N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z 15.0N 150.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z 15.0N 155.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...EMILIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 127.2W
ABOUT 1240 MI...1990 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
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Quoting bappit:

Detailed account is here. Monthly Weather Review for 1926.
This is a good read, folks... I have it saved on my hard drive. I've also read a couple of other accounts at our local archives and seen some pictures.

A Bahamian met, Wayne Neely, has published a few slim volumes on some of the more memorable storms of the past.

This is the one I have [though I sho' nuff didn't pay $66 for it....]
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Hurricane Fabio:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Looks like the rain will continue through the weekend with the trough backtracking over the region again. Could have some widespread flooding if this pans out.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY AND ALONG
A LINE FROM NEAR COLUMBUS NORTHWESTWARD TO BURNET. EXPECTING THAT
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS RUNS FROM THIS MORNING BEGIN TO DRIFT THE UPPER
LEVEL WEAKNESS BACK TO THE WEST AND HAVE IT OVERHEAD BY LATE
SATURDAY. STILL THINK THAT SATURDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY DRIER DAY
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS MAINLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS WELL BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSIT THE
REGION.

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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
...FABIO BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...MORE THAN A MONTH AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 13
Location: 15.6°N 111.4°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

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HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF FABIO IS
DISPLACED ABOUT 20 N MI TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
CYCLONE. IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...FABIO HAS STILL BEEN ABLE TO GAIN
STRENGTH. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS AROUND 75 KT. IN ADDITION...AMSU DATA FROM
EARLIER TODAY YIELDED AN ESTIMATE OF 72 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING FABIO FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SINCE THE SHEAR DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE BEEN TOO
MUCH OF A LIMITING FACTOR THUS FAR AND FABIO WILL STILL BE OVER
SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS STILL ONLY 2
PERCENT...SO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FABIO
SHOULD MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPDATED
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND ONLY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FABIO IS MAINTAINING A MOTION OF 300/9 KT. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO
UNTIL THE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST DEEPENS ENOUGH TO SEVER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG 28N. AT THAT POINT...FABIO
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD BY DAY 5.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FABIO HAS BECOME A MORE SYMMETRIC CYCLONE...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1642 UTC ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.6N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 16.1N 112.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.5N 114.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.8N 115.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 17.3N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 24.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop
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Fabio becomes a hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FABIO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...FABIO BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...MORE THAN A
MONTH AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 111.4W
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
HURRICANE FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
2100 UTC FRI JUL 13 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.4W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.4W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.1N 112.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.5N 114.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.8N 115.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 117.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 24.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 111.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting yoboi:



ya should do a poll with that...


Even if I was in group 2, I might as join the party since there's not a dang thing I can do about it.
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just a note to everyone..i wish i could find the chart again..i posted it a couple of days ago..BUT..there IS a sort of climate change coming soon...our florida and gulf coast semi-tropical climate is steadily moving northward..NC and iowa etc will soon be seeing as normal..OUR summer weather , i guess even the humidty and temps..that was from the NWS page...........so a climate shift IS going to happen..i just hope..this is not the beginning of something, and I am wondering if..this shift does occur as they say it will...what will MY climate be like here in florida?..not semi tropical anymore but pure tropical in nature?..oh boy, and if this change does happen...what I really want to know is..how will that change affect Their winters?..remember melting snows in spring..feed the rivers like the mississippi etc
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Latest projection from spaceweather

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Quoting LargoFl:
..it would amaze me IF...what the saw coming was...dont laugh ok....what if they knew...Global warming was coming, so bad it would be the end game...an earth shift, moving closer to the sun etc


Watch the film called "The Knowing"..with Nicholas Cage..very good
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Damm all the way up the FL east coast. That must have been a doozy!
By the time it got to FL, it had pretty much worn itself out. Over the Central and NW Bahamas it maxed out at 140 mph, and they think the pressure probably got lower than the lowest recorded level as the storm passed near New Providence. It was the worst July storm on record for more than 75 years. Fortunately no lives were lost, though the damage [based on photos I've seen] was extensive and the storm surge was memorable. If a similar storm took a similar track today, we'd be in some deep doodoo...

The 1928 Okeechobee storm was worse for the Bahamas as a whole, but not necessarily for Nassau.
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Quoting redwagon:

Hard to have faith after the last 18 months of drought, but the PAC has been kind to us, a saviour, really. Co-Models Cindy Crawford, Claudia Schiffer and Heidi Klum want to send Fabio to Baha, which should provide some good moisture if we have any fronts or other agents to work with him.

In the meantime, the GOM low might elect to manifest a coastal sfc low, like that Anti-cyclone did ten days or so ago.

There's always hope.
There is always hope, I don't think it will develope, but you never know.
Dr M did say that 2 cold fronts will hit the gulf coast and SE US in 2 weeks and will be watched for development.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.