July Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

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It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.


Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Civicane49:


We must have had the same thought at the same time. Look at our posts.
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I'll be out for now. Here's my blog entry earlier today on Fabio and Emilia, if anyone missed it.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
This low over the Yucatan is like Drew B. in 50 First Dates. Every day it advances westward, then by morning it's somehow back where it started. Today it was making an eye at a MX sfc cutie on the shore, maybe to rendezvous at Tamaulipas. Dry air is 90% gone, so maybe it'll finally move somewhere.
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Quoting Grothar:


You can't remember the difference between Coke and Pepsi, and yet you remember a phrase like Gastroesophageal reflux? :)
yep because I drink my nexiums everyday and the dr gave me a pamphlet of the disease I have and what should I eat and what not.:)
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting KoritheMan:


Better than ******* Mountain Dew.


Can't touch Fresca!!!!!!! Sorry if this was posted,Im a bit behind on blog.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Fabio looks like someone smashed him with a pan xD.
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Anybody notice the big ULL to the East of Florida?

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Quoting timtlu:


What exactly do you think the base of soda is?


From 3.12L of 7Up flavor concentrate we used to manufacture 10,000 7Up cans...

Mostly water, HFCS, sodium benzoate, citric acid, CO2 and one drop of concentrate....

That's why its been 20 years that I don't drink Sodas....

For Colas, change the flavor concentrate and add Caffeine / tracers...

Link
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Quoting allancalderini:
I am actually trying to take out sodas of my life because my little brother is overweight and every time he sees someone drinking sodas he wants so that is why I can remember the difference of coke and pepsi right now.I also don`t drink sodas because they make me suffer of Gastroesophageal reflux.


You can't remember the difference between Coke and Pepsi, and yet you remember a phrase like Gastroesophageal reflux? :)
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Emilia:

Fabio:
Needs convectin on the west side
(I might mess up on my o's and p's since I got maple sirup between the o and p keys).
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Articuno:

But he didn't say Florida...
He said California. :\
Socal to be exact.
I didn't know if he meant tops or elevation where the rain was falling.


I was naming an example.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

85kts (100 mph).

Agreed.
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Usually when a basin has an active month the next month is usually dead after it.I'm not so sure it that means the east pacific will be dead next month.But I think it'll certainly not produce as many storms as it's producing now.

Okay Plazared.I'm glad they like this current one.I usually change avatars because I have an art side of me where i can't just keep the same avatar for long periods of time.I'll eventually get board with them and switch out.It's sad that the admin have even caught up to my frequent changing xD.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.Who are the others?.Are you talking about the admin?.Yeah they've been trying to stop me as well.

"The others" are all the fans of the weather underground that the "Red" (network,) over here in the the Europe zone who follow almost every word of what you lot write from your side of the Atlantic.
We dont have anything like the weather you have and its a combination of jealousy and amazement as to what happens in the Americas that leads you over there to have such a massive following.
After all not many Americans would have much interest in Europeon weather or our plights and problems.
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Water, but one positive against several negatives like rot teeth...

How strong will Fabio get guys? Just to stay on topic...

85kts (100 mph).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32823
I am actually trying to take out sodas of my life because my little brother is overweight and every time he sees someone drinking sodas he wants so that is why I can remember the difference of coke and pepsi right now.I also don`t drink sodas because they make me suffer of Gastroesophageal reflux.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Today in 1995: Figure 1. Outline of areas affected by four derechos during the period of July 11 through July 15th, 1995. The general area of an intense heat wave is shown over parts of the Midwest, including the southern Great Lakes. The derechos are described below.



An exceedingly warm and humid air mass produced a deadly heat wave over parts of the Midwest during mid-July 1995. The broad area of hot and humid air contributed to the development of a series of progressive derechos along a nearly stationary west-east front along the northern fringe of the heat wave region (Fig 1). Four derechos occurred over portions of the northern United States and southern Canada between the evening of July 11th and the morning of July 15th, and the storm paths are shown as colored outlines in Fig. 1.

1. The first derecho (outlined in green) began in eastern Montana (MT) during the early evening of July 11th and ended over northern Wisconsin (WI) and Upper Michigan (MI) by mid-morning on July 12th.

2. The second derecho (outlined in orange) began the next evening, July 12th, over eastern Montana (MT) and followed nearly the same track as the one the night before, reaching northern Wisconsin (WI) and Upper Michigan (MI) by mid-morning on July 13th. However, unlike the previous day's derecho, this one continued through the remainder of the day and well into the evening, turning south across eastern Lower Michigan (MI) and a part of southern Ontario (ON), reaching southern Ohio (OH) around midnight.

3. The third derecho (outlined in purple) began over western South Dakota (SD) during the late evening of July 13th as the second derecho was nearing its demise in Ohio (OH). This derecho moved northeast, reaching northeastern Minnesota (MN) before dissipating around dawn on July 14th. For some residents of northern Minnesota, this would be the third consecutive night that a derecho moved through the area causing serious damage.

4. The fourth derecho (outlined in red) began in eastern Upper Michigan (MI) on the evening of July 14th. This derecho crossed southern Ontario (ON) and western and northern New York (NY) during the night and moved off the coast of southern New England by mid-morning on July 15th.

The second (orange) and fourth (red) derechos were the most significant events of the series, and they are described in more detail below.



Figure 2. Area affected by July 12-13, 1995 derecho (outlined in blue). Curved purple lines represent approximate locations of the gust front at three hourly intervals. "+" and "w" symbols indicate the locations of wind damage or wind gusts above severe limits (measured or estimated at 58 mph or greater).



During the late afternoon of Wednesday, July 12, 1995, thunderstorms formed over southeast Montana (MT) and began producing winds that damaged homes and barns and blew over a mobile home. As the storm system moved east across North Dakota (ND), vehicles were overturned and a grain bin was destroyed. Measured winds reached 70 mph at Bismarck. As the system approached Fargo during the early morning of July 13th, it became a well-defined bow echo storm with measured winds of 91 mph at the Fargo airport. The derecho was becoming a "high end" event.

The derecho took a track similar to one of the previous night (outlined in green in Fig. 1), producing significant damage for the second night in a row from southeast North Dakota eastward across Minnesota (MN) to western Lake Superior (LS) (Fig. 2). Damage was extreme across Minnesota, with over five million trees blown down and many buildings damaged and some destroyed. Six campers were injured from the falling trees during the pre-dawn hours. Trucks with plows were needed to clear many of the roads, and some areas were without power for a week. Damage totaled well over $30 million in 1995 dollars.

As the derecho continued east across extreme northern Wisconsin (WI) and Upper Michigan (MI) on the morning of July 13th, many more thousands of trees were blown down and another camper was injured by a falling tree. By early afternoon the derecho entered Lower Michigan (MI) and turned south-southeast (Fig. 2). Millions of dollars worth of damage, three deaths, and several injuries occurred in northern and eastern parts of Lower Michigan during the afternoon and early evening of July 13th. In Roscommon County alone, 100,000 trees and 100 miles of power lines were blown down. In southeastern Lower Michigan over 400,000 of Detroit Edison's customers lost power. This was the largest power outage for Detroit Edison since the July 7, 1991 derecho.

While the derecho crossed Lower Michigan, it also also created havoc over parts of southern Ontario (ON). In the town of Goderich on the eastern side of Lake Huron (LH) (green shaded circle in Fig. 2), hundreds of trees were blown down, some more than 100 years old. There also was damage to many buildings and vehicles, and a state of emergency was declared. Farther south in Ontario, winds reached 120 km/hr (75 mph) at London and Parkhill (indicated by "w" in Fig 2.)

Many boaters were on Lake Erie (LE) as the storm approached rapidly from the north. On the United States side of the lake, most were caught by surprise as the derecho winds moved well ahead of the bow echo storm. Dozens of boats were capsized or destroyed on rocks. One boater was badly injured when his boat was overturned near Lorain, Ohio, and he later died. Nine other boaters suffered injuries. The U.S. Coast Guard received 152 calls for assistance and had to rescue many people. One couple spent almost 8 hours in the water after their boat capsized near Kelly Island.

As the derecho continued to move south across Ohio (OH) during the evening, measured gusts reached 88 mph at both Avon (Lorain County) and Tiffin (Seneca County), and 87 mph at Stow (Summit County). Hundreds of trees were blown down and many buildings were damaged. Three people were killed and 6 were injured from falling trees. The derecho finally met its demise as it reached the Ohio River near midnight EDT (Fig. 2).

Overall, "The Right Turn Derecho" traveled 1400 miles in 27 hours at an average speed of 52 mph. Many millions of dollars worth of damage was done, millions of trees were destroyed, seven people were killed, and nearly three dozen were injured.


Figure 3. Area affected by July 14-15, 1995 derecho (outlined in blue). Curved purple lines represent approximate locations of the gust front at two-hourly intervals. "+" symbols indicate the locations of wind damage or wind gusts above severe limits (measured or estimated at 58 mph or greater). The red dots denote tornadoes.



On the evening of Friday, July 14th, 1995, thunderstorms producing severe weather were occurring over Upper Michigan (MI) and adjacent portions of Ontario (ON) near Sault Saint Marie. By late evening the storms had evolved into a bowing line just northwest of the Mackinac Bridge. At 10:17 PM EDT, the thunderstorm gust front hit the bridge and a gust to 90 mph was measured. Sustained winds above 80 mph continued on the bridge for 10 more minutes. Thus began the intense "Ontario-Adirondacks Derecho" that would cause hundreds of millions of dollars worth of damage, several deaths, and many injuries as it raced southeast from the northern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast (Fig. 3).



...ONTARIO..

As the bow echo system producing the derecho crossed northern Lake Huron (LH) and Georgian Bay (GB), it grew in scale and severe winds affected a large part of southern Ontario (ON) during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, July 15th (Fig. 3). Some damage occurred in the Toronto metropolitan area near the southern edge of the derecho, and a wind gust to 136 kph (85 mph) was measured at the Buttonville Airport just north of the city. However, the most severe damage, which likely was associated with wind gusts up to 160 kph (100 mph) or more, occurred along a band from the "Cottage Country" east of Georgian Bay to the northeastern corner of Lake Ontario (LO) and adjacent parts of the St. Lawrence River Valley. This swath of damage was associated with the most rapidly moving part of the bowed line, as depicted in this radar imagery loop from Environment Canada's King City, Ontario radar. While most of the damage was associated with intense straight-winds, several brief tornadoes occurred in the bowed line. Most were weak, but a strong F2 intensity tornado hit the town of Bridgenorth, destroying a marina and damaging 20 homes.

Particularly hard hit by the July 14-15, 1995 derecho was that part of south central Ontario east of Georgian Bay, with some of the most intense damage around the towns of Huntsville, Bracebridge, Orillia, Minden, and Fenelon Falls. Between 1:30 and 3:30 AM EDT on July 15th, thousands of trees were blown down, with some blocking roadways, severing electrical lines, and damaging or destroying homes and automobiles. Many mobile homes also were overturned or blown away. One person was killed and numerous people were injured. Most of the injuries involved cuts, bruises, and/or broken bones. On Pigeon Lake north of Peterborough, a house boat was overturned, trapping eight people for several hours until they were rescued after sunrise.

Extensive damage continued as the storm system moved southeast toward Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. A roof was torn off a building in downtown Campbellford, and fallen trees blocked roads. The severe winds reached the eastern towns of Picton, Kingston, and Brockville around 4 to 4:30 AM EDT and then crossed into northern New York.

Power outages along the severe damage swath over south central Ontario would last for several days to a week. A report from the Insurance Bureau of Canada indicates that the July 14-15, 1995 derecho resulted in $53 million (in 1995 Canadian dollars) of insurance damage claims in Ontario.



...NEW YORK...

As the Ontario-Adirondacks Derecho entered New York (NY) around 4 to 4:30 AM EDT, very severe wind damage continued to occur, especially along the most bowed-out portion of the line of thunderstorms. Winds estimated to be 100 mph or greater occurred at several points along a band from Jefferson and western St. Lawrence Counties through the Adirondack Mountain region. Of the five deaths and 11 injuries associated with the derecho in New York, most were the result of trees falling on campers in the Adirondacks. Over 30 campers and hikers in the area had to be removed by helicopter since their paths out of the forest were blocked by thousands of fallen trees. According to the New York Dept. of Conservation, about 900,000 acres of forest were damaged in the state, and the value of the loss of timber was estimated to be over $200 million (in 1995 U.S. dollars).

In the more populated areas of central and eastern New York, almost $190 million damage was done to structures and vehicles. Many mobile homes were overturned and numerous homes and businesses were damaged. Many vehicles were damaged or destroyed by falling trees. At the Syracuse Airport, a wind gust of 76 mph was measured at 5:30 AM EDT as the storm gust front arrived, and a parked Boeing 727 jet plane was blown into another commercial jet. Less than an hour later, a gust of 77 mph was recorded at the Albany airport. Several hundred thousand people lost electrical power due to the powerful derecho winds.

Reflectivity imagery from the Rome, New York radar showing the bow echo entering northern New York may be found on the Albany, New York NWS Forecast Office web site here.

A radar loop from the NWS radar at Albany, New York (provided by NWS meteorologist Jeff Waldstreicher) showing the bow echo system as it crossed the Adirondacks Mountains may be seen here.



...NEW ENGLAND...

The Ontario-Adirondacks Derecho entered western New England about 7 AM EDT on July 15th and passed offshore of Cape Cod by 9:30 AM EDT. Measured wind gusts in Massachusetts (MA) include 92 mph at Otis, 85 mph at Upton, 63 mph at Blue Hill Observatory, and 58 mph on Martha's Vineyard. Many roads were blocked by fallen trees and homes and cars were damaged. Fifty people were left homeless when the roof was blown off an apartment building in Holyoke. One person was killed and another injured by falling trees and power lines in western Massachusetts. Three others were injured in Deerfield when their hot air balloon was caught by the storm gust front and spun out of control for five miles before crashing into a tree.



...SUMMARY...

The Ontario-Adirondacks Derecho of July 14-15, 1995 was one of the most costly severe thunderstorm events to occur in eastern North American during the 20th century, causing nearly one-half billion 1995 U.S. dollars in damage. The derecho raced across an 800-mile path in eastern North America in 12 hours, at an average speed of 67 miles per hour. Seven people were killed and several dozen were injured. Many of these were hikers and campers visiting the forested regions of south central Ontario and the Adirondack Mountains in New York.

In total, the series of four derechos that occurred over central and eastern North America during mid-July 1995 resulted in 14 deaths, nearly 100 injuries, and between one-half and one billion dollars worth of damage. It was one of the more noteworthy series of derechos to have occurred in North America during the last 50 years.

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Quoting timtlu:


What exactly do you think the base of soda is?
Sugar,Sugar..and more sugar!! with corn syrup as well :).Yeah I know their is water in soda.I'm not retarded.Soda is bad for you if you drink it a lot either way.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17811
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, he's correct. Thunderstorms over Florida right now are being measured at 36,000ft tops.

But he didn't say Florida...
He said California. :\
Socal to be exact.
I didn't know if he meant tops or elevation where the rain was falling.
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Quoting timtlu:


What exactly do you think the base of soda is?


Water, but one positive against several negatives like rot teeth...

How strong will Fabio get guys? Just to stay on topic...
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Quoting timtlu:


What exactly do you think the base of soda is?

Sugar?
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Quoting allancalderini:
the best drink I ever had is coke or was Pepsi I don`t remember right now which of the two.


Pepsi is sweeter, though some can't tell the difference between the two.
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Quoting allancalderini:
I only drink water when I go to sleep.


I drink water after I exercise or on a hot day.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting washingtonian115:
Your body is made of water.So it needs water.Well if you don't like water you can drink fresh fruit smoothies.The fruits have water in them and other nutrients.


What exactly do you think the base of soda is?
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Had to be Coke! ;)
I think so they look so alike.
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Drinking a Orange Fanta right now. I do drink a lot of sodas, but Fanta has always been my favorite. =)
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Quoting Civicane49:
I like drinking water.
I only drink water when I go to sleep.
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Quoting allancalderini:
the best drink I ever had is coke or was Pepsi I don`t remember right now which of the two.


Had to be Coke! ;)
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Its just That we want to identify with you as a real avatar/person rather than having to keep adjusting to yet another modified phase.
After all schizophrenia has got to have its limits and we sort of like the present avitar anyway.
The current one is the best yet, we have had a secret vote and you hit the nail on the head with this one!
Lol.Who are the others?.Are you talking about the admin?.Yeah they've been trying to stop me as well.
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I like drinking water.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
the best drink I ever had is coke or was Pepsi I don`t remember right now which of the two.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Who the hell drinks 4 or 5 cans of mountain dew a day?.He'll have bad health problems if he doesn't change his ways!.Okay.But I have some really good ones in the line up after this one.

Its just That we want to identify with you as a real avatar/person rather than having to keep adjusting to yet another modified phase.
After all schizophrenia has got to have its limits and we sort of like the present avitar anyway.
The current one is the best yet, we have had a secret vote and you hit the nail on the head with this one!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm allergic to any kind of nuts as well.Which also sucks.I'm allergic to most fruits except citrus fruit and maybe a few other kinds.Some vegetables cause me to break out.I can't eat them raw unless cooked.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Luckily I don't have that problem. However, I work in the dairy (Walmart) so much to the point where I'm literally sick of milk.
I go into anaphylactic shock if I eat dairy/nuts so I have t be extremely careful. I also have seasonal, pet, and dust/mold allergies so the weather can bother me but I want to be a meteorologist. This just shows how slow of a day this is since people are talking about soda.To stay on topic: CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 982.1mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.4

Center Temp : -49.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

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Hawaii....Notice the sun reflection on the water in the last frame.... And how the clouds interact with the big island...



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hate water. And I don't remember Wash115.
Your body is made of water.So it needs water.Well if you don't like water you can drink fresh fruit smoothies.The fruits have water in them and other nutrients.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17811
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hate water. And I don't remember Wash115.

You hate water?! *Gasp!* =O

I find that there's nothing more refreshing than cool water on a hot day.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



exaggeration
it is great.
It my runner up to lemon/lime sodas

anyway, with 4 sodas a day, i could probably not brush my teeth but once a week and have less tooth decay than you.

Learn to love water.
Or you WILL regret it.

I hate water. And I don't remember Wash115.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32823
This is why is difficult to every wave develops, next 5 days, the wind shear continues strong.
the jets stream is causing shear cut in mid atlantic, so i don't see any system developing, upcoming days

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Quoting PlazaRed:

I recently discovered the word "smoothie,"
Maybe some of the genetically modified personnel can enlighten us on this apparent "nasty?"
seems to be a lot worse than the "green drink!"
I'm not sure what smoothies your talking about...I make my smoothies from fresh fruits and vegies :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17811
Quoting KoritheMan:


The second year in the grips of a very strong El Nino (if I'm not mistaken, second only to the super El Nino of 1997):



Wow! That was quite the season. I'm starting to see that El Nino's bring some strange weather to this part of the world.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting Ameister12:
You can tell when bloggers are bored when...

They have a soda debate. =P

I recently discovered the word "smoothie,"
Maybe some of the genetically modified personnel can enlighten us on this apparent "nasty?"
seems to be a lot worse than the "green drink!"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Articuno:

Um...Don't you mean 4,500 to 5,000?
Because Mt. Everest is 29,029 ft


No, he's correct. Thunderstorms over Florida right now are being measured at 36,000ft tops.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
You can tell when wunderbloggers are bored when...

They have a soda debate. =P


if you are in the NE its a Tonic Debate.....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ginger Ale has be to the worst soda for your teeth. Ever. I tasted it [and it was disgusting] so I poured my glass out on the sidewalk and it literally ate through the cement.



exaggeration
it is great.
It my runner up to lemon/lime sodas

anyway, with 4 sodas a day, i could probably not brush my teeth but once a week and have less tooth decay than you.

Learn to love water.
Or you WILL regret it.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ginger Ale has be to the worst soda for your teeth. Ever. I tasted it [and it was disgusting] so I poured my glass out on the sidewalk and it literally ate through the cement.
I would agree to disagree...What brand of soda was that?.Canada Dry is pretty good.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17811
Quoting washingtonian115:
.I can't eat them raw unless cooked.


no you cant eat them raw if cooked :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Ginger Ale has be to the worst soda for your teeth. Ever. I tasted it [and it was disgusting] so I poured my glass out on the sidewalk and it literally ate through the cement.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32823

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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