July Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

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It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.


Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
put some in a glass soak that finger clean it right up


Finger in splint, 4 butterfly strips and some lectrical tape.
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Convectin is wrapping around the center fully now.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hate water. And I don't remember Wash115.


you trained yourself not to like water.
Which will be a huge problem
I try to drink 8 glasses or more of water a day, room temp is best and it tastes fine.
I love gatorade though.

Soda is just not good.
It dissolves your teeth, your esophagus, your stomach, etc.

Milk is disgusting

And another reason not to drink soda.





HURRICANE CHUCK ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL *BURP* HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2030



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHUCK *GULP* WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE *BURP* 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST. CHUCK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS *GULP* GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF *GULP* DAYS. THIS IS HOW WE DEW *GULP* *BURP*

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER *BURP* GUSTS. CHUCK IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 *GULP* HOURS OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND *BURP* TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.


-FORECASTER CODY *GULP* *BURP* *GULP* *AAHHHHH*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Fresca and JD with Honey, er,for medicinal use of course.


put some in a glass soak that finger clean it right up
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Derived from the 14July12amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormEmilia:
Its vector had changed from 14.4mph(23.2km/h) West to 13.4(21.5km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had held steady at 45knots(52mph)83km/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 996millibars to 998millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Emilia's path...
HNL is Honolulu,Oahu :: OGG is Kahalui,Maui :: ITO is Hilo,Hawaii

Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments was Emilia's final position as a Hurricane
The next dot West on the connected line-segments is where Emilia became a TropicalStorm again
Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Emilia's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Emilias's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii's coastline
13July6amGMT: TS.Emilia had been headed toward passing 397miles(640kilometres) South of Hawaii
(dot south of the straightline)
13July12pmGMT: TS.Emilia had been headed toward passing 50miles(81kilometres) South of Hawaii
(dot nearest the island, but not touching)
13July6pmGMT: TS.Emilia had been headed toward passing 364miles(586kilometres) South of Hawaii
(bottom half of the blob on the straightline)
14July12amGMT: TS.Emilia was heading toward passing 353miles(568kilometres) South of Hawaii
in ~5days15hours from now

Copy&paste hnl, 13.186n154.858w, 18.183n155.69w, 13.665n154.97w, ogg, 18.911n155.681w, ito, 15.3n123.0w-15.3n124.2w, 15.3n124.2w-15.5n125.4w, 15.5n125.4w-15.5n126.7w, 15.5n126.7w-15.5n127.9w, 15.5n126.7w-13.818n155.0179w, 18.911n155.681w-13.818n155.0179w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
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803. yoboi
wow been hittin the 151 for awhile today think my head spining like a cat 4 right now shooting for a strong cat 5 hope i can make it shear is startin to kick in.... sst kinda high need more ice in my glass
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
Fresca and JD with Honey, er,for medicinal use of course.


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800. JLPR2
I'm crossing my fingers for this mass of SAL to make it to my area, I need stable weather to finish fixing the backyard with the family...



It has rained everyday since the 8th in Carolina, PR, at least in my area. I have everything ready, all I need is the clouds to go away. XD

And to think I was hoping for rain because June was dry.
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799. yoboi
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Everbody Sprite and Sierra Mist=Best

cause there is no caffiene.

The End



i figured ya as an enfamil kinda guy.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
Quoting washingtonian115:
Gro can you post an image of the wave please.


In the tropics, spiraling (vertical) cloud patterns occur in the formative, mature, and dissipative stages of tropical cyclones, while weak tropical waves are often identifiable by curved cloud lines, spiraling cloud bands, and/or inverted-V- shaped cloud patterns that form east of these waves. the "screaming eagle" cloud pattern, can be seen above the second wave of the inverted-V-shaped cloud pattern.

Satellite pictures provide the earliest warning of tropical cyclone existence and permit a highly accurate tracking capability. Initially, a tropical cyclone is simply a dense mass of cumuliform, cir-riform, layered middle clouds without a recog-nizable shape or pattern. It’s the size and location of these cloud masses that make them suspect to tropical cyclone classification.

A suspect cloud mass has an average diameter of 3 degrees latitude or more except when the

cloud, mass is within or adjacent to the ITCZ of the Atlantic, Pacific, or South Indian oceans. Here, the diameter must average at least 6 degrees latitude. In the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, suspect cloud masses must attain a diameter of 8 degrees latitude or more.

Recognizable cloud patterns evolve as tropical cyclones develop, intensify, and weaken. In the early stages, the clouds take on the shape of curved bands or lines. Cloud bands are usually seen 36 hours before a disturbance reaches tropical storm force. During this prestorm period, the cloud pattern is highly variable. Frequent, short period, mainly diurnal changes occur, which can cause a disturbance to appear quite intense during the day and much weaker at night. As a tropical cyclone reaches tropical-storm force, the cloud bands become more organized. At the weak tropical-storm stage, the band(s) curve halfway around the center of the system. As the storm intensifies, the banding completely surrounds the center, forming an eye, at the weak hurricane/ typhoon stage. Further intensification is indicated by increasing clouds around the eye, or by the eye becoming more well defined.

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Quoting Grothar:
Anybody notice the big ULL to the East of Florida?



LOLOLOLOLOL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 PM AST FRI JUL 13 2012

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION
TONIGHT. THESE PASSING SHOWERS WERE FAST MOVING...BUT SOME PRODUCED
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME. ALTHOUGH LATEST TJSJ 14/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...STILL
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS TUTT LOW CONTINUES NORTH OF THE AREA...AND A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST
GRIDS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014
000
FZNT23 KNHC 132103
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
22N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ001-140900-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT STRONG BREEZE OVER THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT REACHING NEAR 75W LATE SUN AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY MON.

$$

AMZ011-140900-
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ013-140900-
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ015-140900-
CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ017-140900-
GULF OF HONDURAS-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ019-140900-
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ021-140900-
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

AMZ023-140900-
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$

AMZ025-140900-
OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$

AMZ027-140900-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

AMZ029-140900-
W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ031-140900-
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA
BASIN-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

$$

AMZ033-140900-
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ035-140900-
OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ037-140900-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...N OF 10N...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. S OF 10N...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15
KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N OF 10N...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8
FT. S OF 10N...E 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$

AMZ039-140900-
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ101-140900-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE JUST N OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUN...THEN MOVE S TO NEAR 31N MON AS A HIGH CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
28N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF AREA WILL MOVE W REACHING FROM 30N65W
TO 23N69W TONIGHT...FROM 30N70W TO 23N72W SAT NIGHT...FROM 30N71W
TO 23N74W BY SUN NIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NW PORTION
MON.

$$

AMZ111-140900-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ113-140900-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ115-140900-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO
15 KT LATE. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.TUE...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ117-140900-
BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ119-140900-
ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ121-140900-
ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ123-140900-
ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ125-140900-
ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
TRENCH-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ127-140900-
ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W-
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
LATE. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$
FORECASTER GR

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Quoting Grothar:



OK, if you insist. There are two. Poor signatures on both right now.




The fat one in front seems to be moistening the environment.Second one may need to be watched.I think this is personally the beginning of the Atlantic getting into active mode all though we'll still have to wait a week.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
793. yoboi
Quoting sunlinepr:
U.S. declares drought-stricken states largest natural disaster area ever
Posted on July 12, 2012
July 12, 2012 – CLIMATE - The United States Department of Agriculture has declared natural disaster areas in more than 1,000 counties and 26 drought-stricken states, making it the largest natural disaster in America ever. The declaration—which covers roughly half of the country—gives farmers and ranchers devastated by drought access to federal aid, including low-interest emergency loans. “Agriculture remains a bright spot in our nation’s economy,” U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Wednesday while announcing the assistance program. “We need to be cognizant of the fact that drought and weather conditions have severely impacted farmers around the country.” According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, more than half the country (56 percent) experienced drought conditions—the largest percentage in the 12-year history of the service. And according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the period from January through June was “the warmest first half of any year on record for the contiguous United States.” The average temperature was 52.9 degrees Fahrenheit, or 4.5 degrees above average, NOAA said on Monday. Twenty-eight states east of the Rockies set temperature records for the six-month period. A heat wave blistered most of the United States in June, with more than 170 all-time temperature records broken or tied during the month. On June 28 in Norton, Kan., for instance, the temperature reached 118 degrees, an all-time high. On June 26, Red Willow, Neb., set a temperature record of 115 degrees, eclipsing the 114-degree mark set in 1932. -Yahoo



they spray so many chems on rice an soybeans here weather don't even matter anymore here....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
792. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
I just know Al Roker is lurking.

TWC eyes are upon us.







i think ddd steph is watching not al....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
Quoting washingtonian115:
Gro can you post an image of the wave please.



OK, if you insist. There are two. Poor signatures on both right now.




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Quoting Grothar:


That's funny and not funny. Ever had a kid who went to Carnival and ate the following:

Sausage and pepper sub
Sugar candy
Popcorn
Too many sodas to count
Hot dogs with onion and relish
Fried clams

then went on the Cyclone...... Not a pretty picture.
That's funny and not funny as well.
I know the results myself, learned personally the hard way decades ago. In my experience if your spew has enough speed and angle of projection it smears everyone on the ride. Not a pretty picture indeed. Especially if the wind is blowing.....west!
.
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Comments on the forecast - this evening and Tonight
Upsloping along the irish hills ridge within a weak density discontinuity frontal zone iscontributing/aiding the development of an agitated/towering cu field over portions of the centralforecast area this afternoon. Dewpoints within this zone have been able to hold in the middle toupper 50s per latest surface observations. Outside of this ribbon, both north and south, surfacedewpoints have eased down into the lower to middle 50s. The combination of the better lowertropospheric moisture and boost to vertical ascent has been able to push through a limited 600-500mbcapping inversion. Lack of any background synoptic scale ascent remains the large limiting factorfor any widespread convective generation as the forecast area remains virtually within an oldsurface ridge. This old ridge airmass and overall lack of deeper moisture content has limitedmlcapes of 500 j/kg or less. So, looking at an isolated chance very early this evening for areasimmediately north of the terrain. Only real concern to watch for is potential brief heavy downpoursand perhaps some gusty winds due to precipitation loading/evaporative potential.
The lake breeze boundaries have also been active from a convective perspective this afternoon,rimmed completely around all of southern Lake Michigan. General 850-300mb mean flow is very weak,out of the southwest. It now appears that it may be difficult for the lee of Lake Michigan activityto drift northeastward in time before the loss of daytime heating. Nevertheless, some hi resolutiondata is suggestive the density discontinuity boundary outlined earlier may arrive over portions ofthe Tri Cities after 00z. For this will keep the low chance PoP going there. Lows tonight will dropinto the 60s to around 70 degrees.
.
Remaining Remarks on the forecast - Saturday through Friday
A loosely organized split flow currently encompasses much of the central Contiguous U.S., with theprogressive westerlies firmly locked north of the border. Attention through the weekend period willinvolve both the eventual northeastward ejection of a mid level disturbance and associated gulfmoisture plume now emerging out of the central gulf coast, and the arrival of a low amplitude wavenoted on water vapor slipping across the upper Mississippi valley. Strong northward moisturetransport commencing on Saturday will tend to align south of an attendant mid level jetlet drapedacross the northern Ohio Valley... Leaving southeast Michigan largely outside of the establishedtheta-e gradient and removed from the favored moisture transport vectors. In addition, forcingremains rather nebulous through the daytime period with broader ascent primarily tied to thenorthern stream wave still residing west of Lake Michigan. Always the potential for asubtle/ill-defined vorticity maximum shearing off of the larger southern stream wave to funnelthrough the during the day, and given the gradual infusion of higher low level moisture content, avery low end PoP remains warranted. Thermal profile changes little from that noted today, with theadvective process holding neutral. Slightly higher prospects for some filtered insolation/especially south and east/ may keep readings a couple degree cooler. Highs again within the upper80s-lower 90s range, warmest readings northwest.
A more concerted push of theta-e advection will ensue through the Saturday night period immediatelyin advance of the aformentioned northern stream trough. This process alone may be sufficient inestablishing a window for stronger upward ascent with the timing coincident with stronger nocturnalcooling ongoing at the top of the mixed layer. This in conjunction with the general backgroundascent provided via the approaching lower height field/trough axis will bring an incrementalincrease in pops Saturday night/early Sunday. Differences in the both the amplitude of this wave andthe magnitude of the downstream ridge axis creates some timing differences in the exact upper troughpassage. The Euro/Canadian camp maintain a slower progression of the large scale features, leavingthe attendant low to mid level frontal zone still in the vicinity of southeast Michigan into Sunday.Meanwhile, a progressive NCEP cluster would suggest a dry and potentially much warmer day under awell mixed west-southwest flow and quickly rebounding upper heights.
Southeast Michigan will once again reside on the periphery of predominant large scale upper ridgethrough the early week period, as 500 mb heights settle within the 587-589dm range. This will nudgehighs solidly into the 90s. Potential for a more aggressive response into Tuesday as a deepening lowlevel southwest flow emerges coincident with a ribbon of higher mid level theta-e immediately inadvance of a cold front diving south out of the Canada. A strong aggregation of height fallsstreaming across southern Ontario will effectively drive the cold front through Lower Michiganwithin the Tuesday night/Wednesday period. Fairly respectable forcing/convergence emerges along thisfrontal slope, providing the next favorable opportunity for making some sort of dent in thisextended stretch of dry weather. Post-frontal airmass will work toward easing temperatures back toaround or just below seasonal levels to finish the week.
. . posted at 350 PM EDT Friday July 13 2012


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788. yoboi
Quoting Articuno:
The best soda I had was RC Cola.
It's is like in between Coke and Pepsi.
It's REALLY good.



can ya mix it with 151???
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
Could see the ULL work down to the surface over the weekend.Now when it does would it be sub-tropical?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
I just know Al Roker is lurking.

TWC eyes are upon us.



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Quoting Grothar:


That's funny and not funny. Ever had a kid who went to Carnival and ate the following:

Sausage and pepper sub
Sugar candy
Popcorn
Too many sodas to count
Hot dogs with onion and relish
Fried clams

then went on the Cyclone...... Not a pretty picture.
I may be a teen but the only thing on that list I can have with no doubt is soda.
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Gro can you post an image of the wave please.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Quoting ncstorm:


Yes, I have been watching it..its been going up in vorticity and on the TCHP TC formation..our NWS also has spoke about it..


And, what do you think?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ginger Ale has be to the worst soda for your teeth. Ever. I tasted it [and it was disgusting] so I poured my glass out on the sidewalk and it literally ate through the cement.

That isn't the ginger ale... its the carbonated water. To make that water carbonated, they add Carbonic Acid... which isn't exactly gentle.

Acidity of Soda
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't make blogs very often , so I have decided to type up a blog once a week on Saturdays (if the tropics are active) and if a tropical cyclone is threatening the U.S. I might make one daily.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Careful Gro,ya getting baited


He's a master at that.
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Quoting ncstorm:


Yes, I have been watching it..its been going up in vorticity and on the TCHP TC formation..our NWS also has spoke about it..


I knew they read our blog.
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Quoting Grothar:


A very good possibility. And the wave in the Atlantic may have a small window of opportunity as well.
shear seems to be favorable(If I'm looking at the map correctly)..sst are warm instability is great..all it needs to do is work down to the surface.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Groth...I once spent a few days waiting in doctor's offices with my son, who had some "mysterious" illness that was quite uncomfortable. The final word from the specialists in pediatric gastroenterology was to forget about any more tests and just cut out soda and pizza..it worked. Everything in moderation.


That's funny and not funny. Ever had a kid who went to Carnival and ate the following:

Sausage and pepper sub
Sugar candy
Popcorn
Too many sodas to count
Hot dogs with onion and relish
Fried clams

then went on the Cyclone...... Not a pretty picture.
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Quoting Grothar:
Anybody notice the big ULL to the East of Florida?

I've noticed it for a little bit now, is there a chance it could develope or aid in development in something else?
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Quoting Grothar:


A very good possibility. And the wave in the Atlantic may have a small window of opportunity as well.


Yes, I have been watching it..its been going up in vorticity and on the TCHP TC formation..our NWS also has spoke about it..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14461
741. wxchaser97
Today in 1995:


I was just reading about more El Ninos wondering if that happened during one. But apparently it was just after the longest El Nino. Which did cover the October flood I do remember from 1994. That also was helped by the remnants of a Pacific hurricane as was the 2002 flood.

The 1990–1995 El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on Record

SO, remained positive from 1990 to June 1995.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes Gro :).There is a small possibility it could work down to the surface.


A very good possibility. And the wave in the Atlantic may have a small window of opportunity as well.
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Quoting allancalderini:
yep because I drink my nexiums everyday and the dr gave me a pamphlet of the disease I have and what should I eat and what not.:)
I don't know for you but dealing with my severe allergies can be difficult. My doctor is really good though so he has helped me and my parents/sister a lot. If you have any difficulties good luck.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You predicted Fabio's northward turn first. You're the expert.


Careful Gro,ya getting baited
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Quoting allancalderini:
yep because I drink my nexiums everyday and the dr gave me a pamphlet of the disease I have and what should I eat and what not.:)


It can do a lot of damage if you don't take care of it.
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Quoting Grothar:


You can't remember the difference between Coke and Pepsi, and yet you remember a phrase like Gastroesophageal reflux? :)
Groth...I once spent a few days waiting in doctor's offices with my son, who had some "mysterious" illness that was quite uncomfortable. The final word from the specialists in pediatric gastroenterology was to forget about any more tests and just cut out soda and pizza..it worked. Everything in moderation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The best soda I had was RC Cola.
It's is like in between Coke and Pepsi.
It's REALLY good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Anybody notice the big ULL to the East of Florida?


I have *now*. Good eye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
U.S. declares drought-stricken states largest natural disaster area ever
Posted on July 12, 2012
July 12, 2012 – CLIMATE - The United States Department of Agriculture has declared natural disaster areas in more than 1,000 counties and 26 drought-stricken states, making it the largest natural disaster in America ever. The declaration—which covers roughly half of the country—gives farmers and ranchers devastated by drought access to federal aid, including low-interest emergency loans. “Agriculture remains a bright spot in our nation’s economy,” U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Wednesday while announcing the assistance program. “We need to be cognizant of the fact that drought and weather conditions have severely impacted farmers around the country.” According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, more than half the country (56 percent) experienced drought conditions—the largest percentage in the 12-year history of the service. And according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the period from January through June was “the warmest first half of any year on record for the contiguous United States.” The average temperature was 52.9 degrees Fahrenheit, or 4.5 degrees above average, NOAA said on Monday. Twenty-eight states east of the Rockies set temperature records for the six-month period. A heat wave blistered most of the United States in June, with more than 170 all-time temperature records broken or tied during the month. On June 28 in Norton, Kan., for instance, the temperature reached 118 degrees, an all-time high. On June 26, Red Willow, Neb., set a temperature record of 115 degrees, eclipsing the 114-degree mark set in 1932. -Yahoo
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Quoting Grothar:
Anybody notice the big ULL to the East of Florida?

Yes Gro :).There is a small possibility it could work down to the surface.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Food prices expected to soar as U.S. corn crop withers under drought
Posted on July 12, 2012
July 12, 2012 – CLIMATE — What looks to be the worst U.S. drought in a quarter of a century has given rise to an old-fashioned commodity rally on world markets, with key grain prices hitting highs which caused food crises in vulnerable parts of the globe last time around. Seeking to protect their populations from hunger this time, many countries relying heavily on imports have held off for now, touting healthy stock levels and hoping other sources will come through and bring prices down. But their hopes may be dashed if they all return to market at once. With so much of the world putting faith in a record U.S. corn crop, it is little wonder that prices have surged around 40 percent in the past three weeks as relentless dry weather melted yield expectations for cereals. Soybeans are at record highs, while wheat is not far behind. “Production potential looked great and it kind of lulled these end-users into a false sense of security. At that point we were seriously looking at (corn) prices under $5 if weather conditions remained ideal, but now we’ve rallied sharply higher and never looked back,” Jefferies Bache analyst Shawn McCambridge said. Now, corn futures contracts backed by the 2012 harvest are above $7 a bushel and climbing fast. Traders said consumers in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East had pulled back on regular purchases, expecting prices to cool off. “This to me is a time bomb. I am routinely one of the more bearish people but it wouldn’t surprise me if corn traded at $10,” the trader added. There are several parallels between the current state of play and food crises of the past few years, including scorching weather, wilting crops and sky-rocketing prices. Just substitute 2012′s U.S. drought and corn for 2010′s Russian crop failure. Similarities can also be found on the macro front – 2008, when prices were last at these levels, saw a mushrooming financial crisis culminate in the failure of Lehman Brothers, and now Europe’s debt crisis has left the euro zone precariously balanced, with other regions also on edge. The uncertainty has led to swings in all the markets this time as then, but the simple common denominator of supply and demand has been the driving force of the latest grain price spike, with weather the only fundamental that matters. Such frenzied buying leads ultimately to additional food inflation and domestic price rises can be a tipping point in countries with already struggling populations. –MSNBC
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Quoting Civicane49:


We must have had the same thought at the same time. Look at our posts.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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