July Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

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It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.


Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Ameister12:
NHC isn't being conservative with Fabio at all! A 95 kt peak is a lot higher than I would have expected.
Why is it when there is a strong impressive storm the NHC is conservative but with a medium strength average hurricane they are aggressive in the epac this year?
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CMC,GFS and NAVY(NOGAPS)have a good tropical wave going to S FL in the next 10 days
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Agreed. I'm still sticking to my forecast of 80/85 kt.

Yeah, 85 kt peak is still my forecast.
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Quoting Ameister12:
NHC isn't being conservative with Fabio at all! A 95 kt peak is a lot higher than I would have expected.

Agreed.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Ameister12:
NHC isn't being conservative with Fabio at all! 95 kt peak is a lot higher than I would expect.

Too high if you ask me. They factor in rapid intensification when the SHIPS is showing a meager 17% of it within 48 hours.

They didn't include RI in the forecast when the SHIPS showed 90% for Emilia.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Quoting Ameister12:
NHC isn't being conservative with Fabio at all! 95 kt peak is a lot higher than I would expect.


Agreed. I'm still sticking to my forecast of 80/85 kt.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20421
NHC isn't being conservative with Fabio at all! A 95 kt peak is a lot higher than I would have expected.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Yeah that's a ragged eye. Fabio has had it for most of the day.
Thanks, I've been gone for most of the day so I didn't know. A 110mph peak may be questionable with Fabios ragged eye/ shape.
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Hurricane Fabio:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
...EMILIA MOVING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 13
Location: 15.5°N 128.6°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.5N 128.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 15.5N 130.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 15.6N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 15.6N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 15.6N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 15.3N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z 15.0N 157.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THE WEAKENING TREND OF EMILIA HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED THIS EVENING.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A SMALL TONGUE OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATER....25 TO 25.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS HAS CAUSED A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL BANDS THAT ARE
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS
45 KT...AND IS BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND RECENT SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE CI NUMBERS OF 3.0. WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME
SATURDAY MORNING AS EMILIA PASSES WEST OF THE AXIS OF THE
WARMER WATER AND INTO A STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

EMILIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IN LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE NHC
FORECAST IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
IS NEAR THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.5N 128.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 15.5N 130.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 15.6N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 15.6N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 15.6N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 15.3N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z 15.0N 157.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
A peak of 95 kt? We shall see.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20421
Oh snap! Nearly a major hurricane 12 hours from now.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.7N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 113.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 16.4N 115.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.8N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 17.4N 118.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 21.8N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 23.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...EMILIA MOVING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 128.6W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
847. etxwx
Houston Looks at Expanding the City's Water Supply
Excerpt: "Every new water project where you have to increase the supply for an area is much more expensive than the last one you did," Lester said. "It makes financial sense to try to work on conservation."

Other alternatives could help, too. Some developers are building subdivisions with two sets of piping, Lester said: one for drinking water and one for water suitable for washing cars and sprinkling lawns. Right now, treated water from Lake Houston is, in most cases, used for everything.
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.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

Its a 90:...FABIO STRENGTHENING...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 13
Location: 15.7°N 112.5°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.7N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 113.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 16.4N 115.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.8N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 17.4N 118.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 21.8N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 23.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

INFRARED BD-CURVE ENHANCEMENT AND A 2220 UTC AMSU MICROWAVE PASS
SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH
OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL OF -80 TO -90C.
JUST RECENTLY...AN OFF-WHITE RAGGED EYE HAS APPEARED IN THE
INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT...SINCE
THE 75 KT ESTIMATE EARLIER SUPPORTED BY THE TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
AND UW-CIMSS ADT DID NOT INCLUDE THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF THE
RAGGED EYE. FABIO IS APPARENTLY FENDING-OFF THE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR THIS EVENING BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN. THE
SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES THAT THE PROBABILITY FABIO WILL UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS INCREASED FROM 2 TO 17 PERCENT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONSIDERS THIS POSSIBILITY AND SHOWS AN INCREASE
TO 95 KT IN 12 HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FABIO PEAKING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
DECREASING SSTS AND STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. FABIO IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9 KT. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO STEER FABIO IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...CAUSING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND
ALLOWING FABIO TO ULTIMATELY TURN NORTHWARD AROUND DAY 4. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE TVCE
CONSENSUS MODEL...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS-HYBRID.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.7N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 113.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 16.4N 115.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.8N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 17.4N 118.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 21.8N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 23.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FABIO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...FABIO STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 112.5W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Fabio Long Floater - Water Vapor Imagery Loop

TFP's and ZOOM are active
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
841. yoboi
Quoting BobWallace:


Nasty?

Peach Mango Smoothie...

1 peach, sliced
1 mango, peeled and diced
1/2 cup vanilla soy milk
1/2 cup orange juice, or as needed
Directions

Place the peach, mango, soy milk, and orange juice into a blender. Cover, and puree until smooth. Pour into glasses to serve.

--

Strawberry Smoothie...

8 strawberries, hulled
1/2 cup skim milk
1/2 cup plain yogurt
3 tablespoons white sugar
2 teaspoons vanilla extract
6 cubes ice, crushed
Directions

In a blender combine strawberries, milk, yogurt, sugar and vanilla. Toss in the ice. Blend until smooth and creamy. Pour into glasses and serve.

Let your creativity run wild....


i am going to try that later when i cook my mercury filled fish i caught in the bayou....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2334
Quoting wxchaser97:

Is that an eye forming or just dry air?

Yeah that's a ragged eye. Fabio has had it for most of the day.
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Hurricane Fabio:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Fabio Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

Is that an eye forming or just dry air?
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DETROIT (WXYZ) - High heat and higher humidity will give us the chance of storms over the weekend. It is only a slight chance tomorrow, but a 40% chance on Sunday.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Go ahead and kill yourself by drinking too much wine. Enjoy it while it lasts. ;)
THATS NOT WINE!!
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Quoting PlazaRed:

I recently discovered the word "smoothie,"
Maybe some of the genetically modified personnel can enlighten us on this apparent "nasty?"
seems to be a lot worse than the "green drink!"


Nasty?

Peach Mango Smoothie...

1 peach, sliced
1 mango, peeled and diced
1/2 cup vanilla soy milk
1/2 cup orange juice, or as needed
Directions

Place the peach, mango, soy milk, and orange juice into a blender. Cover, and puree until smooth. Pour into glasses to serve.

--

Strawberry Smoothie...

8 strawberries, hulled
1/2 cup skim milk
1/2 cup plain yogurt
3 tablespoons white sugar
2 teaspoons vanilla extract
6 cubes ice, crushed
Directions

In a blender combine strawberries, milk, yogurt, sugar and vanilla. Toss in the ice. Blend until smooth and creamy. Pour into glasses and serve.

Let your creativity run wild....
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As a rising senior I just got back from touring FSU. Was was impressed with their meteorology building. I must have been in their for like an hour during the tour reading the analyses on posters of things ranging from the Joplin tornado and tornadogenesis to outflow boundaries in tropical weather to lake effect snow events in western New York. And I almost died as I walked to the fourth floor and found the NWS of Tallahassee right there, typing their forecast discussions away underneath all their equipment which was located on the roof of the meteorology building. I didn't want to bother them too much without making an appointment, so when they saw me I just gave them a quick wave.

The outstanding tour guides talked to me about lots of stuff on the general tour, and at the end they remembered I had told them I was interested in pursuing atmospheric sciences, and they even tried to set me up with an appointment with the met department adviser without me even asking, but she was booked. So they gave me the contact info.

Tough decision between engineering at GA Tech and meteorology at FSU. Looks like a pretty good met school though. Doesn't Drak go there?
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Since the next advisory will be coming out in the next 20 minutes, what do you all think peak intensity will be? It is 85mph from the atcf/tcweb:BEST, 0, 156N, 1119W, 75, 982, HU, 64, NEQ
it will remain the same this one will not be a super cane
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Yuma, AZ area is getting pounded right nowLink


These storms in and near Yuma are all severe according to WU overlay..

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828. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
A week ago we all PR bloggers wanted rain very badly, now that we have it you want it to go away? :(


Yeah, go away rain, shoo! Come back in August.
XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8668
Since the next advisory will be coming out in the next 20 minutes, what do you all think peak intensity will be? It is 85mph from the atcf/tcweb:BEST, 0, 156N, 1119W, 75, 982, HU, 64, NEQ
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Quoting Gearsts:
A week ago we all PR bloggers wanted rain very badly, now that we have it you want it to go away? :(


That is right. Today I was at a supermarket when a heavy shower that fell stucked me for more than half an hour. Already July is above normal on the rainfall.
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Blog update.
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Yuma, AZ area is getting pounded right nowLink
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823. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:


Finger in splint, 4 butterfly strips and some lectrical tape.


if it get's to bad soak it in some zatarans shrip/crab boil, had an infection once saved me a trip to the heath unit and a shot....what happens in nola does not always stay in nola lol...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2334
Quoting yoboi:
wow been hittin the 151 for awhile today think my head spining like a cat 4 right now shooting for a strong cat 5 hope i can make it shear is startin to kick in.... sst kinda high need more ice in my glass

Go ahead and kill yourself by drinking too much wine. Enjoy it while it lasts. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm crossing my fingers for this mass of SAL to make it to my area, I need stable weather to finish fixing the backyard with the family...



It has rained everyday since the 8th in Carolina, PR, at least in my area. I have everything ready, all I need is the clouds to go away. XD

And to think I was hoping for rain because June was dry.
A week ago we all PR bloggers wanted rain very badly, now that we have it you want it to go away? :(
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Quoting yoboi:



can ya mix it with 151???


Don't mix rum or crown royal in RC or Pepsi........eewwwwwwwwwwwwww........Coke only!!!!!
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Quoting redwagon:

I swear there will be 7 ATL blue-green TFPs tomorrow and I'll *still* be stuck on this GOM low. I guess I'm looking for closure on it. 8|


I agree with you..
Too weird of a year...better keep an eye on any and everything until completely poof..
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Quoting yoboi:



can ya mix it with 151???

IDK.
I am not old enough to be knowledgeable about alcoholic drinks. :P
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817. yoboi
Quoting jeffs713:

That isn't the ginger ale... its the carbonated water. To make that water carbonated, they add Carbonic Acid... which isn't exactly gentle.

Acidity of Soda



that's why they suggest ya cut it with everclear...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2334
Quoting Patrap:


Finger in splint, 4 butterfly strips and some lectrical tape.
its not turning green i hope
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Quoting Grothar:


And, what do you think?


I believe it has a chance..its really been trying the last 12 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15219
Quoting pcola57:





I swear there will be 7 ATL blue-green TFPs tomorrow and I'll *still* be stuck on this GOM low. I guess I'm looking for closure on it. 8|
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Quoting pcola57:





There is an invest in the wpac:
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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