July Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

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It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.


Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Fabio is looking better this morning. If his eye clears out, we'll likely have a category 2 on our hands.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Good morning everyone. The CME is either late or far weaker than expected... It was expected to arrive earlier this morning but there has been no increase in solar wind.

Link


So true. But the stream of protons seems to be picking up right now (at least a bit).

Solar wind
speed: 365.3 km/sec
density: 5.5 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1357 UT

spaceweather.com

Edit: Some minutes later:

Solar wind
speed: 373.3 km/sec
density: 7.7 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1404 UT

Edit edit:
And now decreasing

Solar wind
speed: 344.8 km/sec
density: 3.1 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1416 UT

Edit edit edit:
And now increasing again

Solar wind
speed: 377.0 km/sec
density: 4.6 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1426 UT
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The second year in the grips of a very strong El Nino (if I'm not mistaken, second only to the super El Nino of 1997):

I was tracking storms in 83. After Alicia tropics were nothing short of boring.
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7971
Quoting barbamz:
Good explanation on spaceweather forecast:



Link found on this site:
Posted at 12:31 PM ET, 07/13/2012 The Washington Post Solar storm incoming:
Federal agencies provide inconsistent, confusing information
By Jason Samenow

Yeah, and good morning to everyone (it's already afternoon in Germany, lol ...)



Good morning everyone. The CME is either late or far weaker than expected... It was expected to arrive earlier this morning but there has been no increase in solar wind.

Link
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7992
Has hurricane season ended already? We haven't had much to talk about. I mean not even an invest. What gives? Will it be like this in August?
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Good morning everyone
14/1200 UTC 16.0N 113.8W T4.5/4.5 FABIO -- East Pacific
14/1200 UTC 15.2N 130.4W T3.0/3.0 EMILIA -- East Pacific
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 980.9mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 5.9

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.3mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.7 2.7

EP, 06, 2012071412, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1138W, 80, 978, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 25, 1009, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FABIO, D,

EP, 05, 2012071412, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1306W, 45, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 30, 20, 60, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EMILIA, M,
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7971
Good explanation on spaceweather forecast:



Link found on this site:
Posted at 12:31 PM ET, 07/13/2012 The Washington Post Solar storm incoming:
Federal agencies provide inconsistent, confusing information
By Jason Samenow

Yeah, and good morning to everyone (it's already afternoon in Germany, lol ...)


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Quoting susieq110:
New Blog Out. I hope this isn't considered spamming. It's a blog on the Weather underground. I apologize in advance if im doing this wrong.


susieq110's blog:Link
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Good morning, everybody.

Woke up to some thunder, and it was poring down rain. What a welcome sight and there is more coming my way. =D
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Good morning and happy weekend!

I'm looking towards the tropics for rain, because the great drought of 2012 is spreading into parts of the northeast. You can see where people have set their sprinklers, because the grass outside of that is dead. This upper level low near the Bahamas is moving WNW and I'm hoping it can ride around the high and up the coast.
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New Blog Out. I hope this isn't considered spamming. It's a blog on the Weather underground. I apologize in advance if im doing this wrong.
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dr.masters..politician...There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.
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What happened to the NOAA-Site "Space Weather Alerts and Warnings Timeline"? It seems not to be updated since last night.

Edit: O.K. Update did just happen.




Link: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html
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Recommended again: The landslide blog

http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/

"Dave Petley is the Wilson Professor of Hazard and Risk in the Department of Geography at Durham University in the United Kingdom. His blog provides a commentary on landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings."
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Good Morning All,

Below is an excerpt from the mornings MIA discussion I thought worthy of posting. Kinda interesting Dr. Masters mentions a high re-curve probability, can't say I agree with that.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 141119
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED 408 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NW OF THE AREA TUE AND THROUGH LATE
WEEK, A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FL.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS ATLANTIC RIDGE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
SAHARAN DESERT AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC (598-600 DECAMETERS).
CIMMS SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS A LARGE EXPANSE
OF SAL NOW EXTENDING FROM THE SAHARAN DESERT TO JUST EAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. AEROSOL LOOP FROM THE NRL/NAVY SHOWS
THIS SAL MOVING INTO SOUTH FL LATE TUE AND FIRMLY IN PLACE ON WED
AND LIKELY STAYING THROUGH AT LEAST THU. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZY
SKIES...SO DECIDED TO ADD HAZE TO THE FCST. NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL BE FOUND ABOVE THE SAL INVERSION. FCST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES, THOUGH NOT AS STEEP AS IT LIKELY WILL BECOME
GIVEN PREVIOUS SAL EPISODES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTORMS. DID LOWER POPS FROM WED AND BEYOND
AS PWATS LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SAL...FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES
WED AFTERNOON EAST COAST AND ONLY ABOUT 1.25 INCHES ON THU ACROSS
SOUTH FL. SO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT STRONG HEATING AND
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY WILL BE ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THE SAL TO ALLOW FOR SOME ACTIVE TSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON`S.
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Maybe something in the gulf?
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not.much.yet..THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 11N27W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 11N34W
TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N39W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE
NEAR 8N43W ALONG 6N50W THEN S OF THE NEXT WAVE TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N E OF 26W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA AND FROM THE ITCZ TO 10N BETWEEN 48W-53W WITH
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-43W.
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Quoting pottery:

Hot and bright here yesterday and today.
Enjoy the rain !
Oh I will pottery.Suppose to get back into the mid to upper 90's by Sunday.Very hot and sticky conditions.
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Great up-close video of a large landslide in Johns Landing, BC, yesterday. Sadly, RCMP says four people are still missing and unaccounted for.



mudslide
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning wunder crew.We got some very heavy rains this morning.Picked up another inch plus in some places..

Hot and bright here yesterday and today.
Enjoy the rain !
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Good morning wunder crew.We got some very heavy rains this morning.Picked up another inch plus in some places..
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400,000 to evacuate Japan deluge



Tokyo: About 400,000 people were ordered or advised to leave their homes in southwest Japan on Saturday as heavy rain pounded the area for a third day leaving 29 dead or missing, officials and media said.
The Japan Meteorological Agency warned of more landslides and floods on the main southern island of Kyushu as rainfall of up to 11 centimetres (4.3 inches) per hour was recorded on Saturday.
Evacuation orders were issued to about 260,000 people in the north of the island where more rivers burst their banks, Kyushu’s local media reported.
They were told to go to designated shelters such as schools and other public facilities.
Nearly 140,000 other people were advised to leave their homes to avoid possible disaster, according to officials contacted by AFP in the four affected prefectures in Kyushu.
Television footage showed torrents of muddy, debris-strewn water and flooded houses following what officials described as “unprecedented” downpours from a seasonal rain front.
Along the Yamakuni river in Oita prefecture, water levels were seen reaching the roof of a riverside drive-in restaurant before subsiding later.
In Fukuoka prefecture alone, 78,600 people were ordered to evacuate their homes as rivers overflowed in dozens of places and 181 landslides occurred, an official said.
About 820 houses were damaged and three bridges washed away, Fukuoka prefecture spokesman Hiroaki Aoki told AFP by telephone.
“Two men were rescued from landslides but their conditions were not immediately available. One woman was still trapped,” he said. “I don’t remember any flooding which stretched over such a wide area in our prefecture.”
More than 75 centimetres of rain fell in 72 hours in the city of Aso, situated at the foot of a volcano in Kumamoto prefecture, the meteorological agency said.
The death toll remained at 20 overnight, with 19 of the fatalities from landslides and house collapses in and near Aso.
Nine people were missing, with two listed on Saturday after a 30-year-old man fell into a swelling river in his car in Oita and a 83-year-old woman was buried in a landslide in Fukuoka.
It’s a race against time for rescuers as they desperately search for people buried after heavy rain caused mudslides in south western Japan.
The torrential rain continued to fall as police, firefighters and troops dug through mud and rubble with shovels after ‘unprecedented’ downpours swamped whole neighbourhoods.
Television footage showed torrents of muddy water carrying uprooted trees and other debris in a violent deluge, while rivers burst their banks and flooded towns and villages in Kyushu, the southern island of Japan.
Landslides and fallen trees cut roads and water supplies in several places, with at least one small mountain community completely cut off, the local government said.
It’s only contact so far has been with a Japanese military helicopter which dropped off supplies including food and water.
In the city of Aso in Kumamoto Prefecture, central Kyushu, landslides buried at least 17 households, killing 19 people with six more still missing, local officials said.
Kumamoto prefectural official Yushin Maekawa said: ‘We will keep searching for the missing throughout the night, while urging our citizens to stand guard as heavy rain continues sporadically.’
In Oita, Oita Prefecture an elderly man died after being swept into a raging river, while another man remained missing.
The city of Hita, Oita prefecture, ordered more than 14,800 people to evacuate amid increasing fears the Kagetsugawa River, which runs through the city, would burst its banks, local officials said.
Nearly 25,000 people in other parts of the prefecture were advised to seek safety, the officials said.
Reports showed residential streets in the city of Kumamoto covered in mud, while battered cars were swept away by flood water and left dumped on hillsides in scenes reminiscent of the March 2011 tsunami in the northeast.
The weather agency urged residents of Kyushu to be vigilant against mudslides and floods after rainfall of about four inches an hour was recorded in the southern region of Kagoshima earlier today.
The weather agency forecast has estimated 20 centimetres of rainfall in the northern Kyushu region by Saturday morning.
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Quoting LargoFl:


Is the first time on this season that the area in the MDR is more pronnonced. But the models so far are not so keen for anything to develop in the next 7-10 days.
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............................gulf water temps are cooking
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..........................good morning folks, nice weekend shaping up for the state of florida..have a great day
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Still hanging on.

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR
THE CENTER OF EMILIA. HOWEVER...ASCAT DATA FROM SHORTLY BEFORE
0600 UTC SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 45 KT...SO
THIS VALUE WILL STAY AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY AS EMILIA MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...AND GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...THIS TRANSITION
COULD OCCUR SOONER.

EMILIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO
THE WEST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT SPEED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT IS STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
THE NEW FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...
STAYING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.5N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.5N 132.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 15.6N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.6N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 15.5N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0600Z 15.0N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z 15.0N 158.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14746
Good morning. NHC lowers peak intensity.

HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE WITH FABIO DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER...THE EARLIER EYE ATTEMPT ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY WAS
UNSUCCESSFUL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER...SO 80 KT REMAINS THE CURRENT WIND SPEED. FABIO HAS ONLY
A SHORT WINDOW LEFT TO STRENGTHEN WITH COOLER WATERS ON THE HORIZON
FOR TOMORROW. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HURRICANE IS NEAR
ITS PEAK INTENSITY...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE IN THE NEAR-TERM. A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND
A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OF FABIO BY
MONDAY. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT FOUR DAYS DUE TO COLD WATERS AROUND 20C.

A TIMELY TRMM IMAGE FROM 0615 UTC WAS A GREAT HELP WITH THE INITIAL
POSITIONING...RESULTING IN A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/9. THIS
GENERAL COURSE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BREAK AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO A DEEP
TROUGH FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...CAUSING FABIO TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE LONG-RANGE. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NUDGED A BIT
TO THE EAST AFTER DAY 3 BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 16.0N 113.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.2N 114.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.6N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 17.1N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 17.7N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 19.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 22.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14746
Derived from the 14July6amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormEmilia:
Its vector had changed from 13.4(21.5km/h) West to 15.5mph(25km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had held steady at 45knots(52mph)83km/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 998millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Emilia's path...
HPV is Hanalei,Kauai :: HNL is Honolulu,Oahu :: OGG is Kahalui,Maui :: ITO is Hilo,Hawaii

Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is where Emilia became a TropicalStorm again
Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Emilia's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Emilias's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii's coastline
13July12pmGMT: TS.Emilia had been headed toward passing 50miles(81kilometres) South of Hawaii
(dot nearest the island, but not touching)
13July6pmGMT: TS.Emilia had been headed toward passing 364miles(586kilometres) South of Hawaii
(bottom of the blob on the straightline)
14July12amGMT: TS.Emilia had been headed toward passing 353miles(568kilometres)South of Hawaii
(middle of the blob on the straightline)
14July6amGMT: TS.Emilia was heading toward passing 343miles(552kilometres) South of Hawaii
in ~4days13hours from now

Copy&paste hpv, hnl, 18.183n155.69w, 13.665n154.97w, 13.818n155.0179w, ogg, 18.911n155.681w, ito, 15.3n124.2w-15.5n125.4w, 15.5n125.4w-15.5n126.7w, 15.5n126.7w-15.5n127.9w, 15.5n127.9w-15.5n129.3w, 15.5n127.9w-13.96n155.063w, 18.911n155.681w-13.96n155.063w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
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...But NHC said the low was dropped at the 0605 UTC discussion. See the central Atlantic.
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140310
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA AT 15.7N 128.6W AT 0300 UTC MOVING W-NW AT
13 KT WITH MAXIMUM WIND 45 GUSTS TO 55 KT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND NOW ONLY SCATTERED
MODERATE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM IN NW SEMICIRCLE. ALL MODELS AGREE
ON QUICK DEMISE FOR EMILIA BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE SAT
AND POST TROPICAL LOW PRES BY MON. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

HURRICANE FABIO AT 15.7N 112.5W AT 0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 9 KT
WITH MAXIMUM WIND 80 GUSTS TO 95 KT. FABIO HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90
NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER. FABIO EXPECTED TO STEER INTO COOLER
SST LATE SUN AND BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 07N78W TO 08N88W TO 07N100W AND RESUMES
FROM 12N119W TO 06N129W THEN ITCZ AXIS TO BEYOND 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF N
AND 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 89W TO 97W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W TO 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N122W TO 18N140W TO SMALL
CYCLONE AT 05N147W MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF E PAC
S OF 20N W OF 129W AND N OF 20N W OF 115W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AT 31N111W ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE S OF 20N E OF
120W TO FEED HURRICANE FABIO.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB AT 43N142W HAS
RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 23N117W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND
EMILIA SUPPORTS FRESH NE BREEZE OVER NW CORNER OF BASIN THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS VERY ACTIVE IN EASTERN
PART OF BASIN AND CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE RIGHT INGREDIENTS.

$$
WALLY BARNES



Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7971
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Quoting biloxibob:
Could somebody explain to me how to post an image?( Im not computer literate)


First, lets post one image from the blog:

Goto post 915 (can use any posted image from any other blogger)
Place mouse cursor over that image
Press the right button of the mouse
Select copy image location


Now go to the new comment box area
Press the Image button
Inside the box press the right button
Paste

Now press the Post Comment

You are done

Refresh the blog to see your pasted image.... You can add a comment by writing underneath it....

You can only post

Jpg (images)

Gif (animations)

Youtube Embeded Old format....

Drag any image from the blog to a new tab to experiment...

Goto Weather links with updated images and bring them to the blog....
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Nite everyone, last look at Fabio:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7971
Quoting biloxibob:


Hit the preview button first to make sure it will post and if it does hit post
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Fabio is starting to seem like less and less of a misnomer every minute.
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Tropical update on my blog...I highlight a tropical wave that has just rolled off of Africa...which I think has opportunity to develop (and I cite the reasons why)...

This is interesting considering that Dr. M has said a below average chance of a July storm...especially from a tropical wave. We'll see what happens...
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I'm out for the night.
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Big ball of convection just popped up, he is trying to organnize more.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7971
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55503
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55503
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night nigel
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55503
Enjoy the rest of the weekend everyone...good night!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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