July Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

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It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.


Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Can someone post the Fabio Discussion?


Post #1305
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Can someone post the Fabio Discussion?
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Wow... 90mph and forecast to begin weakening immediately?
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.
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HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

FABIO STILL HAS A RAGGED EYE...AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE
HURRICANE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STEADY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT 80 KT.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF FABIO IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE
THE HURRICANE ON A TEMPORARY WESTWARD MOTION...OR 280/9 KT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FABIO SHOULD RESPOND BY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. WHEN FABIO DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW IN
4-5 DAYS...ITS NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE IMPEDED BY
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST HEDGES
ON THE SIDE OF THE MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF AT THAT TIME.

THE HURRICANE IS NOW OVER 26-27C WATER...AND EVEN COLDER WATER LOOMS
AHEAD. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT NEAR FABIO...THE HURRICANE MAY ACTUALLY REACH COOLER
WATERS SOONER THAN EARLIER FORECAST GIVEN ITS RECENT WESTWARD
MOTION. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY...AND
FABIO COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY IN WINDS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH ARE IN ALMOST PERFECT AGREEMENT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 16.2N 115.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.6N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.0N 118.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.6N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE FABIO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

...FABIO TEMPORARILY TURNS WESTWARD...SHOULD RESUME A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 115.1W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE BEGINNING
TO BECOME DETACHED...AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE VERY
TIGHT AND WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL NEAR 45 KNOTS. IN FACT...THAT
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE CYCLONE IS
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND IS
MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR WEAKENING AND EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...A GENERAL TRACK
TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 TO 14 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.5N 132.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.5N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z 15.2N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z 15.0N 148.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z 15.0N 153.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Off topic but this is the most oddly shaped severe thunderstorm watch I've ever seen...



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8047
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Schematic drawing, causes and effects of air pollution: (1) greenhouse effect, (2) particulate contamination, (3) increased UV radiation, (4) acid rain, (5) increased ground level ozone concentration, (6) increased levels of nitrogen oxides.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
That big of plume of SAL out in the Central Atlantic for the past several days is breaking up a bit and allowing some more moisture in the ITCZ and the African Easterly Waves are looking much healthier today. Still a little way to go however before the peak activity but August is only a few weeks away. Once the activity in the E-Pac dies down, we should start seeing the reliable long-term models (on a consensus basis as opposed to a few isolated runs) start to develop the African waves by the first two weeks of August.

Link
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Every day is a once in a lifetime date.

no but that day is just more special then your ordinary day
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1296. ncstorm
Good Afternoon Everyone..

Im watching for development off the NC/SC coast..

Euro


GFS
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1295. icmoore
.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Arctic Sea ice loss:




not good...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Looks like the trade winds are getting strength
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Here's a Phys.org article about the Dark Rift and Dec, 21. Nothing is going to happen.
Link
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1280 WxGeekVA SoCal landfall?

Hadda Plus for givin' me a smile... cuz waters so cool on the way up there that even if it pulled a Vince, the remnant 'd be a welcome rain event.
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California landfall maybe!?!?!?
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For those wondering about Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the Pacific...

1.) Emilia - 17.54 units
2.) Daniel - 14.705 units (0.1225 units = Central Pacific)
3.) Bud - 7.15 units
4.) Fabio - 3.6475 units
5.) Carlotta - 3.51 units
6.) Aletta - 1.1775 units

Total: 47.73 units (0.1225 units - Central Pacific)
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Arctic Sea ice loss:

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Quoting icmoore:
Doom da Doom da Doom... :)

img src="Photobucket">


I'd take that down before the admins see it...
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1286. icmoore
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Would this support Global Warming enthusiasts?

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this will be a cat 2 no longer than 12 hrs by sunrise tomorrow it should be waning out

Emphasis on "should be".
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Quoting Articuno:
December 12th had to be my birthday...
atleast it's on a cool, once in a lifetime date.
12/12/12.


Every day is a once in a lifetime date.
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1281. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Fabio has just a little more time to strengthen. A 105-110 mph peak looks good...just like Forecaster Roberts suggested last night..

this will be a cat 2 no longer than 12 hrs by sunrise tomorrow it should be waning out
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SoCal landfall?
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Fabio has just a little more time to strengthen. A 105-110 mph peak looks good...just like Forecaster Roberts suggested last night..

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As far as the tropical side of things, tropical storms while devastating when they impact populated areas (and they are of course nature's way of releasing excess heat in the tropics), are small-fry in the big picture of things that can affect mankind for the worse on a global scale. Weather/Natural event wise, some of the the big ticket items are global warming (and it's downstream effects including agricultural impacts), lack of fresh water for human consumption/irrigation, and any potential threats from space which are being highlighted at the moment due to the solar activity.

For all life on Earth (including Humans)it boils down to food and water at the end of the day.
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1277. wxmod
Quoting aspectre:
aspectre [inre 1204 LargoFl]: Where in the world did you find that dungheap of disinformation? There ain't a scientist in the world, or any other place in the Universe, who'd endorse spouting such complete&utter nonsense.
1234 LargoFl: ...freedom of information act is a wonderful thing.

So you're sayin' you wrote it yourself?


I've never seen any sign of major computer or electric outage from solar storms in my area, though I'm sure grid managers are quite tuned in to these storms.
What puzzles me is, in this day and age of real world problems, why is there so much attention given in the media to solar events that have happened thousands of times in just the last million years?
And why is Largo so upset about them. If we get roasted by the sun, it'll be over fast. But the globe warming until it kills all of us could make quite a lot of suffering and very slow death.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1772
Final CI# from UW-CIMSS is up to T5.4/~100 kt (Category 3).

Fabio has likely attained Category 2 intensity.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2012 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 16:08:40 N Lon : 114:45:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 964.0mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -2.3C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.0 degrees

************************************************* ***
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Quoting Ameister12:
Fabio will likely be upgraded to a category 2 by the 5pm advisory.

Agreed. It looks stronger than 90 mph.
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1274. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting wxchaser97:
One storm will tap this hot water and become a monster, hopefully not hitting land.
activity will ramp up by the next full moon there may even be a storm maybe see a reflection of it 3 to 5 days before the moon is full

next full moon is august 2nd
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Fabio will likely be upgraded to a category 2 by the 5pm advisory.
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December 12th had to be my birthday...
atleast it's on a cool, once in a lifetime date.
12/12/12.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I guess this will delay the oncoming El Nino.
Still holding on 15 strong.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



hotter and hotter
One storm will tap this hot water and become a monster, hopefully not hitting land.
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1268. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)



hotter and hotter
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



cooling cooling cooling
I guess this will delay the oncoming El Nino.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
As promised the DOOM scenario of December 21st 2012, edited by WxGeekVA on MS Paint:



Enjoy thinking about what everything would be like if this happened.

These would not dissipate over land, they would wipe out the east 1/2-1/3 of the country.
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1265. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)



cooling cooling cooling
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I've gotta go again for awhile.

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1261. wxmod
Open water at the north pole. MODIS satellite photo today.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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