July Atlantic hurricane outlook
It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.
Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.
Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.
Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS
El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.
Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.
Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.
Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.
Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.
Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.
Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.
An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 — Blog Index
I'm looking towards the tropics for rain, because the great drought of 2012 is spreading into parts of the northeast. You can see where people have set their sprinklers, because the grass outside of that is dead. This upper level low near the Bahamas is moving WNW and I'm hoping it can ride around the high and up the coast.
Woke up to some thunder, and it was poring down rain. What a welcome sight and there is more coming my way. =D
susieq110's blog:Link
Link found on this site:
Posted at 12:31 PM ET, 07/13/2012 The Washington Post Solar storm incoming:
Federal agencies provide inconsistent, confusing information
By Jason Samenow
Yeah, and good morning to everyone (it's already afternoon in Germany, lol ...)
14/1200 UTC 16.0N 113.8W T4.5/4.5 FABIO -- East Pacific
14/1200 UTC 15.2N 130.4W T3.0/3.0 EMILIA -- East Pacific
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 980.9mb/ 74.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 5.9
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.3mb/ 41.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.7 2.7
EP, 06, 2012071412, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1138W, 80, 978, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 25, 1009, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FABIO, D,
EP, 05, 2012071412, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1306W, 45, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 30, 20, 60, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EMILIA, M,
Good morning everyone. The CME is either late or far weaker than expected... It was expected to arrive earlier this morning but there has been no increase in solar wind.
Link
So true. But the stream of protons seems to be picking up right now (at least a bit).
Solar wind
speed: 365.3 km/sec
density: 5.5 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1357 UT
spaceweather.com
Edit: Some minutes later:
Solar wind
speed: 373.3 km/sec
density: 7.7 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1404 UT
Edit edit:
And now decreasing
Solar wind
speed: 344.8 km/sec
density: 3.1 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1416 UT
Edit edit edit:
And now increasing again
Solar wind
speed: 377.0 km/sec
density: 4.6 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1426 UT
146.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OF A
SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) CONVECTIVE ELEMENT LOCATED OVER
THE SUSPECTED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A LARGER AREA,
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF GUAM, OF STRONGER CONVERGENT FLOW IS ALSO
FUELING DEEP CONVECTION; HOWEVER, THESE CLOUD TOPS ARE QUICKLY
SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. A 140412Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS SHALLOW AND BROAD CYCLONICALLY TURNING CLOUD LINES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC AND THE 85 GHZ IMAGE DETAILS THE STRONG
CONVECTION CONTAINED WITHIN THE SMALL CDO FEATURE TO THE EAST OF
THE LLCC. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM 140223Z SHOWS A 05-10 KNOT LLCC
LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 143.5E WITH 25-30 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONVERGING INTO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RAINBAND. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN WITH TWO TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS LOCATED NEAR THE LLCC. THERE IS AN
ELONGATED TUTT CELL LOCATED WEST OF THE LLCC NEAR 16N 134E WHICH IS
PROVIDING FOR SOME CONVERGENT FLOW INTO THE OTHERWISE EXCELLENT
DIVERGENT FLOW FROM A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE WEST OF THE LLCC. ANOTHER SMALLER,
MORE WELL-DEFINED, TUTT CELL EXISTS NORTH OF THE LLCC NEAR 25N
145E, AND IS PROVIDING FOR ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
THE LARGER TUTT TO THE EAST, WHICH HAS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED TUTT
CELLS, IS PROVIDING FOR ENHANCED EASTWARD EXHAUST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MARIANAS ISLANDS ARE EXTREMELY WARM (30-32
CELSIUS), OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REACHES A MAXIMUM NEAR GUAM, AND THE
26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM IS DEEPEST IN A BELT SPANNING FROM
APPROXIMATELY 10-20N TO 125-160E. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS
THE LLCC TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE LLCC AND A BUILDING DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND VERY WARM OCEAN PARAMETERS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
All eyes are on the solar wind data to note the expected passage on Saturday of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from Thursday's solar event. SWPC expects G1 (minor) with the chance of attaining G2 (moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity after 9:00 a.m. EDT (1300 UTC) on July 14. Elsewhere the S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm lingers, and Region 1520 has been quiet. Updates here as conditions warrant.
Effective Wednesday, July 25, 2012, at 1600 UTC (10:00 AM MDT), SWPC will modernize its geomagnetic storm watch products. These products will now be issued relative to the highest expected geomagnetic storm category (NOAA Scale) and will be based on the 3-hour geomagnetic K-index rather than the 24-hour A-index. Watch products will still be valid for the entire UTC day, just as they are under the A-based watches today. This change will better align SWPC's geomagnetic watch products with its geomagnetic warning and alert products and NOAA Scale designations. Product Subscription Service customers are not required to take any action regarding this change. The current A-based watches contain expected geomagnetic storm scale (G-level) information so all subscriptions will be automatically transferred to the new G-based watch products.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-08 3-150800-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWAS SEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF US
HIGHWAY 23. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS. THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE AS THEY TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE AREA.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Twenty years ago, during another weak El Niño, CSU rightly predicted just one major hurricane. That turned out to be the Category 5 goliath, Andrew, which pummeled South Florida in late August as the first named storm in an otherwise sleepy storm season.
same as a regular soda but organic?
i dont really drink soda anyway but ive never had that
I think the absolutely funniest thing that could happen is for there to be no more named storms this year. Imagine that: 2012 finishes at 4-1-0, with all of those before July. This forum would go nuts. So would the NHC. And the UK Met Office. And Dr. Grey...
But that won't happen; things will start picking up shortly, and even a relatively weak season will still yield at least another half-dozen or more storms, with some of those hurricanes. Just hang on...
1992 was a 10-7-4-1(andrew) season with one one hurricane(andrew) and one ts(danielle) landfall
and as typical with wiki maps, you cant see how strong these were:
Also on July 14, 1992, Detroit had a high temperature of 83 degrees. This is about the average high temperature for mid July, but it was the warmest day in Detroit in July of 1992, the second coldest July on record and part of the "Cold Summer of 1992".
Link
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
FABIO IS DISPLAYING A RAGGED EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND RECENT
AMSU DATA INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLOSED
EYEWALL. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KT BASED
ON DVORAK NUMBERS AND ESTIMATES OF 76 AND 80 KT FROM THE AMSU DATA.
THE IMPACTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ON FABIO SHOULD LESSEN AFTER
ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT BY THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE WILL BE LOCATED
OVER OVER SUB-26C WATER. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING
OVER THE COOLER WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE CYCLONE COULD THEN
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/9 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HEADING
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE FABIO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST
COAST SHOULD PRODUCE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 2...AT WHICH TIME
FABIO WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD. THERE
IS SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND THE ECMWF.
THE LATTER SHOWS A SHARPER AND SLOWER TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. BUT
ALL IN ALL...THE MODELS ARE GREATER-THAN-NORMAL AGREEMENT...AND THE
NHC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 16.2N 114.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.4N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 16.8N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 17.3N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 18.2N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 23.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED RECENTLY AS EMILIA MOVED OVER A TONGUE OF
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. EMILIA HAS NOT WEAKENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY WHILE EMILIA IS STILL INFLUENCED BY THE WARMER
WATERS. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BACK OVER COOL WATERS ON SUNDAY...
AND THE EXPECTED WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
EMILIA IS A SHALLOW CYCLONE WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROPICAL TRADE
WINDS. THEREFORE...A GENERAL TRACK TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 TO 14
KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 15.5N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 15.5N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 15.5N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 15.5N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 15.5N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 15.5N 159.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 14
Location: 16.2°N 114.2°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 16.2N 114.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.4N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 16.8N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 17.3N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 18.2N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 23.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 14
Location: 15.5°N 131.3°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 15.5N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 15.5N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 15.5N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 15.5N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 15.5N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 15.5N 159.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
The central African wave centered over the Congo shows good in this loop
Link
Hey wxchaser97, just wanted to say thanks for the weather updates from Michigan and the upper mid-west. I have family up there and appreciate the info.
Good loop. It seems to have a turning of the clouds.
YOU WOULD PUT IT IN THE CHESAPEAKE. NOW BECAUSE OF YOU ITS GONNA HAPPEN IN REAL LIFE. D:
That would not be good because there would be nothing in the tropics to talk about.
Viewing: 951 - 1001
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 — Blog Index