July Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

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It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.


Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BarometerGirl:


October 2, 1858 was the last hurricane to hit to San Diego and it was devastating as a Cat 1.

Link

The last semi-close call was Hurricane Jimena in Aug-Sept 2009, made it to Cat 4 but she made landfall as a Cat 2 in lower Baja and then died in the Sea of Cortez.


Could have been moving very fast.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2290
Quoting wxchaser97:
CONROE 9.85
HOOKS AIRPORT 7.30
HOBBY AIRPORT 6.01
SUGARLAND 5.42
PEARLAND 5.29
GALVESTON 3.95
BUSH AIRPORT 3.63
COLLEGE STATION 3.46
ANGLETON 3.41
PALACIOS 2.58
HUNTSVILLE 2.51

CYPRESS CREEK AT KATY-HOCKLEY RD 15.96
LITTLE MOUND CREEK AT MATHIS RD 15.32
LITTLE CYPRESS CREEK AT CYPRESS ROSEHILL 14.32
SPRING CREEK AT HEGAR ROAD 14.20
SPRING CREEK AT SH 249 12.80
CYPRESS CREEK AT US 290 12.08
SPRING CREEK AT KUYKENDAHL RD 11.48
LITTLE CYPRESS CREEK AT KLUGE RD 10.60
BUFFALO BAYOU AT MILAM ST 9.40
SIMS BAYOU AT HIRAM-CLARKE RD 8.68
SPRING BRANCH AT BINGLE RD 8.56
WHITE OAK BAYOU AT HEIGHTS BLVD 8.48


MESONET SITES 7/9-7/14 TOTALS

CLEVELAND 5.71
DAYTON 2.45
LIVINGSTON 1.62
EDNA 1.12
FRELSBURG 0.34


Where did you get these rain totals from? We have had almost 10" here in Edna and the majority fell last Tuesday and Wednesday. Just curious
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Quoting unknowncomic:
Whollotta spinning going on in Florida straits.
Link

needs.more.than.a.spin
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Whollotta spinning going on in Florida straits.
Link

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. It is now 8 days in a row that the daily SOI is in positive.And the 30 day index is now above the El Nino threshold of -8. All of this may mean a delay of El Nino being officially in the Pacific. Let's see for how long these SOI numbers continue in the next few days.

Link



all 2011 tornado outbreaks during high SOI times
Falling SOI = 1 tornado outbreak in March and April and no more.

The power of El Nino/La Nina
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9718
Good morning. It is now 8 days in a row that the daily SOI is in positive.And the 30 day index is now above the El Nino threshold of -8. All of this may mean a delay of El Nino being officially in the Pacific. Let's see for how long these SOI numbers continue in the next few days.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13926
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Is it bad that the first thing that I noticed in the top picture were the girls on the beach?

Good pictures too anyway, better than a lot of those I have taken!


I thought the picture WAS of the girls on the beach....
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Frogs get married, summon rain

It's a nice day for a green wedding - as two frogs got married in front of over 2,000 wedding guests in India.
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Shear is low off the East Coast...



Anything trying to develop from a trough split will at least have a fighting chance.
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Miami NWS Discussion

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE TSTORMS, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...

...INCOMING SAHARAN AIR LAYER WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK
RESULTING IN HAZY SUNSHINE, FEWER TSTORMS BUT ISOLATED SEVERE
STILL POSSIBLE...
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1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.7N 142.4E TO 24.4N 136.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
150000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N
142.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N
144.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION
OF A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A
150042Z ASCAT PASS. THIS SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH STRONGER 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DISTURBANCE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL PREVIOUSLY SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE LLCC HAS MOVED
RAPIDLY WESTWARD, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND ALLOWING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONALLY, A NEW TUTT CELL THAT HAS FORMED TO THE EAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE HAS INTRODUCED A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH STRONGER GRADIENT-INDUCED WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS OBSERVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON A PERSISTENT LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND RAPIDLY IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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A moderate geomagnetic storm is currently in progress.



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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08
15:00 PM JST July 15 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 19.5N 143.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 21.9N 138.8E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - South Of Japan

Additional Information
======================

Tropical depression will move west northwest and accelerate for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 18 hours

Tropical Depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high seas surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be T2.5 after 24 hours


A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 15/0832Z

C. 22.1N

D. 140.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. Dvorak Intensity T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC AS SEEN IN VIS ANIMATION..ASCAT AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY IS WELL DEFINED BUT DISPLACED TO NORTHWEST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER..CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT PAST 6+ HOURS WITH
SOME INDICATION IN WV IMAGERY THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. 2 TENTHS BANDING IN SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE GIVES DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
DATE 20120715 TIME 0832 LAT 22.1 LON -140.6 CLASSIFICATION(Dvorak Intensity) T1.0/1.0 ID NAME 91W





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Morning everybody.

I had a rather startling wakeup call this morning... there I was, sleeping the sleep of the just, when a sudden downpour of rain, followed by a flash of lightning and a clap of thunder, startled me awake... I lay there thinking "I guess the ULL did drift west after all".... and got up to see what things were looking like in the sat imagery... lol



Looking at this one would assume it's been raining torrentially here for ages, but it only started raining at about 6:55, 15 minutes ago.
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The NWS bumped up the southeast coast's rain chances to 70%.

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1745. LargoFl
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 201
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 15 0721 UTC


WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 15 0730 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 15 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
1744. LargoFl
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150833
TCDEP1

HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FABIO IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -50 C OR COLDER. USING DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS
KEPT AT 90 KT. THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THIS
INTENSITY MUCH LONGER...AS IT WILL BE TRAVERSING PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. FABIO SHOULD
WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 1-2 DAYS AND DEGENERATE INTO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...OR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM RUN AND IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION.

CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS TAKING PLACE...AND THE MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO
BE 285/8. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING NEAR
AND OVER CALIFORNIA SHOULD CREATE A BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 120W LONGITUDE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD WITH
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED AS IT NEARS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT
FAR FROM THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.6N 116.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.0N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 17.8N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 18.8N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 22.5N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 25.0N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z 26.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
1743. LargoFl
GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER E TEXAS AND NE MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 25N W OF 95W INCLUDING THE W BAY
OF CAMPECHE. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SW NORTH
CAROLINA EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO
24N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF LINE FROM 28N88W TO INLAND OVER SW MISSISSIPPI/SE
LOUISIANA TO 31N90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE NW
GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS S FLORIDA THROUGH AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
23N84W TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR
E GULF AT 15/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 27N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL/W TIP OF CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 88W TO INLAND OVER CUBA...S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NW GULF MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING. SURFACE
RIDGE NE OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE S TO ALONG 27N DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
1742. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
1741. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
1740. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
We should definitely be watching for potential development off the East Coast in a week or so...

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Good morning. Fabio has probably peaked or is peaking... Never a good sign when the eyewall is eroding...

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Yesterday an EF-2 tornado was in Poland - 1 person dead,10 injured,damage approx. $1-2mln.

Link to photoshoot

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Derived from the 15July6amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormEmilia:
Its vector had changed from 16.7mph(27km/h) West to 18.8mph(30.3km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had decreased from 40knots(46mph)74km/h to 35knots(40mph)65km/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 1000millibars to 1004millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Emilia's path...
For those who like to visually track TS.Emilia's path...
HPV is Hanalei,Kauai :: HNL is Honolulu,Oahu :: OGG is Kahalui,Maui :: ITO is Hilo,Hawaii

The kinked line represents the 1st day of TS.Emilia's path after it became a TropicalStorm again
Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Emilia's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Emilia's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii
14July12pmGMT: TS.Emilia had been headed toward passing 332miles(534kilometres)South of Hawaii
(bottom half of the blob south of the straightline)
14July6pmGMT: TS.Emilia had been headed toward passing 322miles(519kilometres)South of Hawaii
(top half of the blob south of the straightline)
15July12amGMT: TS.Emilia had been headed toward passing 105miles(169kilometres)South of Hawaii
(dot north of the straightline)
15July6amGMT: TS.Emilia was heading toward passing 289miles(465kilometres)South of Hawaii
in ~2days21hours from now

Copy&paste hpv, hnl, 14.114n155.112w, 14.25n155.154w, 17.382n155.718w, ogg, ito, 15.3n124.2w- 15.5n125.4w- 15.5n126.7w- 15.5n127.9w- 15.5n129.3w, 15.5n129.3w-15.5n130.6w, 15.5n130.6w-15.5n132.2w, 15.5n132.2w-15.7n133.7w, 15.7n133.7w-15.7n135.4w, 15.7n133.7w-14.732n155.261w, 18.911n155.681w-14.732n155.261w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
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1735. LargoFl
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
203 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ067-068-071>074-168 -172>174-150800-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
203 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 4 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF MIAMI-DADE AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD MOVE ONSHORE AFFECTING COASTAL AND METRO AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WITH SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
1734. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
1733. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08
15:00 PM JST July 15 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 19.5N 143.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 21.9N 138.8E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - South Of Japan

Additional Information
======================

Tropical depression will move west northwest and accelerate for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 18 hours

Tropical Depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high seas surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be T2.5 after 24 hours
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Quoting stormchaser19:
Some patterns of la nina still present, so El NINO maybe take his time......look how strong is the high pressure in east pacific




Well there are a few things wrong with this comparison. First, the bottom image gives you no idea of what the actual anomaly is and you are only looking at one time frame, which gives you a poor idea of how the atmosphere has been behaving over the last few weeks. Also, you are comparing two different layers of the atmosphere, the top two are looking at 500mb (mid level) heights and upper level (300-200mb) winds (position of the jet), while the bottom image is showing surface pressures. Simply put, you are comparing surface pressure values at one instance to long term average anomalies in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.

Sorry if that comes off harsh, I'm not trying to be rude, I'm just saying the comparison you are making has some flaws.

That aside, higher height anomalies have been showing up over the central and SW Aleutian islands as well as near Greenland, meanwhile lower heights are showing up over the Gulf of Alaska. The positioning of theses regions of high and low pressures would be roughly analogous to a La Nina. However, atmospheric teleconnections are all showing signs of neutral to El Nino conditions; the PNA is slightly positive, the AO has been slightly negative, the NAO is negative, and most importantly SOI has been negative (except for the last week). Since the teleconnections indicate the atmosphere is not in a La Nina set up, we can't blame lingering effects of a La Nina on the height anomalies. The negative PDO, however, offers a perfect explanation to the pressure anomalies, as MississippiWx already mentioned.


AND, one final note, I do agree that the El Nino may take it's time. Recent SST anomalies and daily SOI values seem to show this.
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I say we will get Ernesto of a trough split this month.
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Quoting yoboi:
when was last time so cal was hit by a cane?? 2012 might be the doom yr...


October 2, 1858 was the last hurricane to hit to San Diego and it was devastating as a Cat 1.

Link

The last semi-close call was Hurricane Jimena in Aug-Sept 2009, made it to Cat 4 but she made landfall as a Cat 2 in lower Baja and then died in the Sea of Cortez.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Three in August, four in September, and two between October and November.
none for July then?

Kinda goes against this post lol

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not that it will matter much soon.

which was in response to my post about the MJO forecasted to head eastward. Although I do agree with the second post...
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On July 15, 2010, severe thunderstorms moved through most of Southeast Michigan. There were 32 severe weather reports included a measured 71 mph wind gust near Davison and wind damage consistent with winds up to 80 mph in Flushing. Most of the reports were wind gust and associated wind damage, but there were a few isolated large hail reports.

On July 15th, 2010 also the city of Berkley, MI got hit by severe thunderstorms. We got tree, power line, and minor home damage. Winds were between 60-70 mph.
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CONROE 9.85
HOOKS AIRPORT 7.30
HOBBY AIRPORT 6.01
SUGARLAND 5.42
PEARLAND 5.29
GALVESTON 3.95
BUSH AIRPORT 3.63
COLLEGE STATION 3.46
ANGLETON 3.41
PALACIOS 2.58
HUNTSVILLE 2.51

CYPRESS CREEK AT KATY-HOCKLEY RD 15.96
LITTLE MOUND CREEK AT MATHIS RD 15.32
LITTLE CYPRESS CREEK AT CYPRESS ROSEHILL 14.32
SPRING CREEK AT HEGAR ROAD 14.20
SPRING CREEK AT SH 249 12.80
CYPRESS CREEK AT US 290 12.08
SPRING CREEK AT KUYKENDAHL RD 11.48
LITTLE CYPRESS CREEK AT KLUGE RD 10.60
BUFFALO BAYOU AT MILAM ST 9.40
SIMS BAYOU AT HIRAM-CLARKE RD 8.68
SPRING BRANCH AT BINGLE RD 8.56
WHITE OAK BAYOU AT HEIGHTS BLVD 8.48


MESONET SITES 7/9-7/14 TOTALS

CLEVELAND 5.71
DAYTON 2.45
LIVINGSTON 1.62
EDNA 1.12
FRELSBURG 0.34
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Just a small idea of what a solar storm impact would do to us, only thing is that this is hollywood's version, so these folks wouldn't be all dressed up, shaved, women with makeup and hair all did.

Only the first 1:30 is actually credible, after that it's all hollywood crap.

You will have to copy and paste the link as it wont let me embed the code over.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwfCRAtkYEI&featur e=channel&list=UL

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Nite all
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I'm out. Later all.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1720. nigel20
Have a good night all...I'm off to bed.

Fabio
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My daily Atlantic tropical update on my blog just released...my 52nd of the season...check it out....
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Fabio should start to weaken as it encounters less favorable conditions.
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1717. nigel20
Quoting PedleyCA:


Sup Nigel, how was your weather. High here was 91.6

Hey Pedley....it was partly cloudy today with isolated showers along the north coast. It's pretty fair at the moment.
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Quoting nigel20:
Fabio


Sup Nigel, how was your weather. High here was 91.6
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1714. nigel20
Fabio
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.