Russian wildfire smoke reaches Canada, U.S.; Death Valley hits 128°F

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on July 12, 2012

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The U.S. isn't the only country suffering from a severe wildfire season. Russian firefighters have been battling huge blazes in Siberia for months. Central Russia experienced record warm temperatures 11 - 12°F (6 - 7°C) above average during June, feeding fires that have burned more area in 2012 than in 2010--the year of the unprecedented heat wave that killed over 55,000 people. Smoke from this summer's Russian fires rose high into the atmosphere last week, and got caught in the jet stream. As University of Washington professor Dr. Cliff Mass explained in this blog, the strong winds of the jet stream carried the smoke to western North America this week, where sinking air associated with a strong area of high pressure brought the smoke to the surface. On Wednesday, CBC reported that the smoke had settled over Vancouver, British Columbia, reducing visibility and increasing air pollution. Meteorologist Eric Taylor of the B.C. Ministry of Environment said he had never seen ozone pollution levels as high in B.C.'s central Interior as occurred over the past few days. The smoke has created colorful sunsets from Oregon to British Columbia, but a low pressure system is expected to flush most of the smoke out by Friday.


Figure 1. Thick smoke from forest fires burning in Siberia on July 5, 2012 (left) and July 9, 2012 (right.) Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. The view from West Vancouver, British Columbia on Wednesday was obscured by thick smoke from forest fires burning in Siberia. Image credit: ThemeGreen's Webcam.

Colorado's most destructive wildfire in its history finally contained
It's been another severe year for wildfires in the U.S., with the National Interagency Fire Center reporting 4800 square miles of burned acreage thus far in 2012, an area about 87% of the size of Connecticut. This is pretty close to the 10-year average for this point in the year, and ranks as the fourth highest of the past ten years. However, with summer not yet half over, and more than 2/3 of the Western U.S. experiencing moderate to extreme drought, the Western U.S. fire season still has plenty of time to add significant acreage to its burn total. The hardest-hit state at present is Idaho, where one-third of the country's large fires (twelve) are burning. The worst fires of 2012 so far have been in Colorado, which had its hottest and driest June since record keeping began in 1895. Colorado's most destructive wildfire in its history, the 29-square mile Waldo Canyon fire, was finally 100% contained on Wednesday, aided by a week of relatively cool and wet weather. The fire killed two people and destroyed nearly 350 houses when it burned into northwestern Colorado Springs. Colorado's second most destructive and second largest fire in recorded history was the High Park Fire, fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire was 100% contained on June 30. According to the Denver Post, the High Park Fire burned in an area where 70% of the trees that have been killed by mountain pine beetles; the insects have devastated forests in western North America in recent years. So did pine beetle damage contribute to this year's devastating Colorado fires? Using Landsat satellite data, a team of scientists led by University of Wisconsin forest ecologist Phil Townsend have discovered that pine beetle damage appears not to have a significant impact in the risk of large fires, and may reduce fire risk in some instances (Video 1.)


Video 1. Wildfire and Pine Beetles: NASA explains how recent devastation of forests in the Rocky Mountains by the mountain pine beetle may be affecting wildfire odds.

Links to follow
Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, has a post on mountain pine beetles and climate change.

I have a post on how climate change is expected to increase Western U.S. fires.

Welcome to the Rest of Our Lives, an 8-minute video put together by climate change videographer Peter SInclair, provides a dramatic look at the extreme weather that has hit the U.S. in June and July.

Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Boulder, Colorado this summer, and had this to say in his June 27 post on the wildfires in Colorado: "The past few days have been relentless. Denver has seen temperatures above 100°F for 5 straight days, and it was 105° today. At the weather station closest to where I live, the thunderstorm that started today’s fire stopped the temperature rise at 97.5 F. The dew point was in the high 30s. The ground temperature in the garden was about 110°. Tonight it all smells of smoke again. It is hard to sleep when the house is 88 degrees and the air smells of smoke. You constantly think of fire."

Death Valley hits 128°: 10th hottest temperature in U.S. history
The high temperature in Death Valley, California hit 128°F (53.3°C) on Wednesday, the hottest temperature measured in the U.S. since July 18, 2009, when Death Valley recorded another 128° reading. Yesterday's 128° was the 10th hottest temperature in U.S. history. The only hotter temperatures were all measured at Death Valley, the most recent one being the 129° measured on July 6, 2007. The all-time high for Death Valley is the 134° reading of July 10, 1913. The forecast for Death Valley calls for a slow cool-down over the next few days, with highs reaching "only" 105° on Monday. That's the date of the start of the grueling Badwater Ultramarathon. Covering 135 miles (217km) non-stop from Death Valley to Mt. Whitney, CA, it is the most demanding and extreme running race offered anywhere on the planet. Lace up your running shoes (not!)

Jeff Masters

Going down, (Glaswegian)
on a hot and humid July evening
Going down,
Workday Sunrise (HarveyCreek)
Going out to the car to head to work, I saw this great sunrise and had to take the time to capture it. This is a panoramic rendition.
Workday Sunrise

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't steal my thunder, Ryan. :(

Well, despite all of the flooding just to my SW, I only saw .03 inches of rain here today, so I needed to steal some sort of thunder! :P

Ok, that was probably pretty lame. I tried.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting pottery:

Not good for people who have to buy food either....
Nobody is winning in this situation and with drought comes heat so everyone should be ready for more heat this summer/ fall.
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Quoting Patrap:
Nasty slice about 1 full inch, inside finger, thru the last digit,and a Black and blueness that would make a fine wine color.

Still numb above it, so if it dosent come back, I may have cut a nerve I think. Will get it checked out at VA if I think it needs attention.

I made a sound when it happened that most likely scared the wee-wee outta some walkers and joggers as well.



Get it checked to be safe Pat
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Quoting windshear1993:
the cooling is from the upwelling of emilia and daniel

Comment #864.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31578
Quoting KoritheMan:


Weren't those higher pressures showing up before all this talk of El Nino?


It depends on what you mean by "before." The atmosphere has been diving towards an El Nino state since February, and was operating in that kind of a pattern before the SSTs caught up. This was a very atmospheric-led start to the El Nino.

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Quoting windshear1993:
the cooling is from the upwelling of emilia and daniel

He's talking about the equatorial pacific

6/25/2012

7/12/2012
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Gulf



Caribbean



East Coast



Tropical Atlantic



Subtropical Atlantic

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31578
Their is very low pressures in the Gulf and caribbean as well...That wasn't suppose to happen.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16453
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Pottery...What's up?

Doing good here, Nigel.
You still needing some rain?
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Quoting KoritheMan:
.

I Agree.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31578
I can't believe how fast Emilia is dissapating, I know that there are cooler ssts and drier air but still.
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Quoting pottery:

Not good for people who have to buy food either....

Hey Pottery...What's up?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
current nino/nina regions jun 12/12 jul 12/12 monthly compare map cooling continues

get ready for a surprize


the cooling is from the upwelling of emilia and daniel
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Dr. Masters Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business

The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"


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Quoting Levi32:


Since June 1st it's been pretty noticeable.



Weren't those higher pressures showing up before all this talk of El Nino?
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

That would be a negative, El Nino occurs in the very most equatorial Pacific waters, which is too far south for tropical cyclones to affect due to their reliance on the coriolis effect, which is virtually non-existent in that region.


Don't steal my thunder, Ryan. :(
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Okay. Well it's not responding enough to where it's noticeable.


Since June 1st it's been pretty noticeable.

Also in the figure, notice the low pressures in the Atlantic are generally confined poleward of 20N, except for in the Caribbean due to the Columbian Low, textbook El Nino in June and July.

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Quoting redwagon:
>
Looks like dry air just RIPd the Yucatan ULL.


I'm pretty sure upper lows are actually maintained by subsidence in the same way the mid-oceanic trough (TUTT) is. The only difference being scale (the TUTT would be considered synoptic scale, while a cold low could be considered mesoscale.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Things are really starting to dry out everywhere now. This is not good for farming intrests.

Not good for people who have to buy food either....
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Considering that warming is equatorial, no.



Thanks man
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Quoting DontNeedNoHandle:
Question from a know-nothing:


Are the EPAC cyclones sucking heat out of the El Nino region?

That would be a negative, El Nino occurs in the very most equatorial Pacific waters, which is too far south for tropical cyclones to affect due to their reliance on the coriolis effect, which is virtually non-existent in that region.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting DontNeedNoHandle:
Question from a know-nothing:


Are the EPAC cyclones sucking heat out of the El Nino region?


Considering that warming is equatorial, no.
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.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Didn't realize so much of the Lower 48 is under a drought...
Things are really starting to dry out everywhere now. This is not good for farming intrests.
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From tonight's NWS of San Juan Discussion.

LONG TERM...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOW NEAR 46 WEST WITH AN
ELONGATED SURGE OF MOISTURE PRECEDING THE WAVE ALONG 50/51 WEST.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SO FAR HAD FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
OVERALL WEATHER SCENARIO...NOW SUGGESTS THAT BOTH FEATURES WILL
ENTER AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
A SLOT OF DRIER/SUBSIDING AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND TROPICAL
WAVE. HOWEVER EXPECT LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT TO STILL AID IN
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
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Good evening everyone!

Daily SOI: 18.22
30 Day SOI: -7.7
90 Day SOI: -3.48

Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values

SST Anomaly

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Thoughts from HGX:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 130207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
907 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF NW HARRIS COUNTY AND
MATAGORDA COUNTY..SEE APPROPRIATE FLSHGX FLOOD STATEMENTS...PART
OF NW HARRIS COUNTY RECEIVED 8.5 TO 10.3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. ONE OF THE CYPRESS CREEK STREAM GAUGES WAS
REPORTING STAGE HEIGHTS REMINISCENT OF VALUES FROM TS ALLISON.
LATEST HRRR (WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL THE PAST TWO NIGHTS) AND TX
TECH WRF REFLECTIVITY FIELD FORECASTS AGAIN SHOW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING IN THE 07-08Z RANGE OVERNIGHT IN SE TX PARTICULARLY
CLOSE OR JUST UPSTREAM OF WORST HIT FLOODING TODAY. COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL INTENSITY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS LARGE AND INTENSE AS
LAST NIGHT BUT IS OF LITTLE CONSOLATION IF ADDITIONAL RAINS DO
FALL. THE MEAN 1000-700MB TROUGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHEAST IN
THE PAST 24HRS AS DEPICTED BY RADAR/PROFILER LOOPS. AREA 00Z
SOUNDINGS ARE A TAD BIT DRIER...KLCH WAS 2.04 INCH LAST NIGHT AND
TONIGHT IS AROUND 1.85 INCH. BLENDED PWAT IMAGERY ON AWIPS2 ALSO A
TAD BIT DRIER...HENCE PREVIOUS SHIFTS OUTLOOK OF LESS INTENSIVE
AND LESS COVERAGE SEEMS GOOD. GIVEN THE PREDICTED RECURRENCE OF
LATE NIGHT RAINS JUST N AND NW OF METRO HOUSTON THESE MAY BEGIN TO
MOVE SW AS DEPICTED BY HRRR/TTECH WRF WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HVY
RAIN MAINLY EAST OF I45...SAY EASTERN 1/3 OF HARRIS..CHAMBERS AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES IN THE MORNING HOURS. BEARS WATCHING. NONETHELESS...CURRENT
OUTLINE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE A FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVERAGE AS
POCKETS OF SUN APPEARED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN SE TX AND SENT
TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
04
&&
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Question from a know-nothing:


Are the EPAC cyclones sucking heat out of the El Nino region?
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Quoting weblackey:


IIRC historically winter temps got low enough to kill off much of the pine beetle population, but thats no longer the case... Doesnt get that cold now, so they basically munch on trees year-round.

Seem to remember reading that the beetle-killed trees didn't have as big an effect on the fires as the amount of undergrowth.

I'm on my phone or I'd look this up now... Anyone willing to cooberate or correct this info, thanks in advance.


Yep.

"The pine beetle responsible for killing the pines in the Rockies is itself killed, controlled, by temperatures less the -40 degrees F. This is at the edge of the coldest temperatures normally seen in the U.S., and these cold extremes have largely disappeared since 1990."

The same blog post from Ricky Rood also mentions a study describing bivoltine (not ovaltine) reproduction due to a warmer climate.



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Tomorrows convective outlook.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maine and Rhode Island are the only two states that don't have drought anywhere in the state.
Barely are they, crops aren't liking the new map; they are disliking it.
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Quoting spathy:


Well now I am confused!
I thought the spin over Florida is in the Gulf now?
>
Looks like dry air just RIPd the Yucatan ULL.
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Looks like there may be another round of very heavy rainfall tonight and into tomorrow morning around here.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting spathy:


Well now I am confused!
I thought the spin over Florida is in the Gulf now?
It's not fully in the Gulf yet.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16453
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Didn't realize so much of the Lower 48 is under a drought...

Maine and Rhode Island are the only two states that don't have drought anywhere in the USA.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31578
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING...WITH THE EYE FILLING
IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY BEFORE 0000
UTC. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE EYEWALL REMAINS INTACT AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 75 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS AND
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 73 KT. THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24-25 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT. EMILIA
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE HEADING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS TO ITS NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE
WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE NEW TRACK IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GFS...ECWMF...AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 15.4N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 15.5N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.8N 127.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.2N 132.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 16.4N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 16.3N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z 16.3N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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FABIO A LITTLE STRONGER...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 12
Location: 13.9°N 109.0°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 13.9N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 14.4N 110.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.1N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 15.6N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 19.0N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

------------------------------------------------- -----
...EMILIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 12
Location: 15.4°N 123.5°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 15.4N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 15.5N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.8N 127.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.2N 132.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 16.4N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 16.3N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z 16.3N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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Quoting wxchaser97:
New drought map:


Didn't realize so much of the Lower 48 is under a drought...
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Quoting Patrap:
I always wait to see how a departing African wave adjusts to the Water.

How they look exiting rarely shows how they look 2 days out in the Open Atlantic.


That has always made me wonder....

The mechanics of these things would suggest that over water, they should become more organised as they are in an environment where they can pick up more moisture.

It doesn't happen that way.
I know that other things come into play, but still.........
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New drought map:
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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 130234
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FABIO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT WAS INHIBITING
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A
13/0015Z SSMIS OVERPASS REVEALED THE PRESENCE OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL
IN THE EAST QUADRANT. A BLEND OF THE SAB AND TAFB FINAL-T NUMBERS
SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FABIO
STRENGTHENING TO A LOW-END HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD....THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES
OVER MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND THE LGEM MODELS
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

VISIBLE IMAGES AND A COUPLE OF TIMELY MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOWED
THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT THAN BEFORE...280/9. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GROWING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WITH TIME DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ARE EXHIBITED IN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND THE
GFDL INDICATE AN EARLIER AND FASTER TURN INTO THE WEAKNESS...AROUND
DAY 3 OR 4...WHILE THE GFS/HWRF/UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW
LESS INFLUENCE AND A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR
DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION ADJUSTMENT...AND
REMAINS CLOSE TO...BUT TO THE LEFT OF...THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 13.9N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 14.4N 110.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.1N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 15.6N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 19.0N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Quoting Levi32:


Oh yes it has. You don't get a persistent negative SOI if the atmosphere isn't responding, including the Atlantic.


Okay. Well it's not responding enough to where it's noticeable.
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Quoting Patrap:
I always wait to see how a departing African wave adjusts to the Water.

How they look exiting rarely shows how they look 2 days out in the Open Atlantic.

Might not adjust that well with all the SAL to its west.
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Quoting java162:


same here in dominica.... we had lots of rain from February to may but as soon as the wet season started, its like we in drought...

Well it hasn't stopped here.
June and July are running about average so far.
No fires at all this year though.

Sorry to hear that Dominica is so dry.
Not good.
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Check out the Central GOM in the RGB loop

Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

click image for Loop

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QOh yes it has. You don't get a negatine SOIuoting KoritheMan:


I would attribute it more to frequent SAL outbreaks and now the downward MJO pulse. El Nino hasn't kicked in yet.


Oh yes it has. You don't get a persistent negative SOI if the atmosphere isn't responding, including the Atlantic.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Any thoughts on the wave coming off Africa?


...It's a wave coming off Africa.
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I always wait to see how a departing African wave adjusts to the Water.

How they look exiting rarely shows how they look 2 days out in the Open Atlantic.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.