Russian wildfire smoke reaches Canada, U.S.; Death Valley hits 128°F

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on July 12, 2012

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The U.S. isn't the only country suffering from a severe wildfire season. Russian firefighters have been battling huge blazes in Siberia for months. Central Russia experienced record warm temperatures 11 - 12°F (6 - 7°C) above average during June, feeding fires that have burned more area in 2012 than in 2010--the year of the unprecedented heat wave that killed over 55,000 people. Smoke from this summer's Russian fires rose high into the atmosphere last week, and got caught in the jet stream. As University of Washington professor Dr. Cliff Mass explained in this blog, the strong winds of the jet stream carried the smoke to western North America this week, where sinking air associated with a strong area of high pressure brought the smoke to the surface. On Wednesday, CBC reported that the smoke had settled over Vancouver, British Columbia, reducing visibility and increasing air pollution. Meteorologist Eric Taylor of the B.C. Ministry of Environment said he had never seen ozone pollution levels as high in B.C.'s central Interior as occurred over the past few days. The smoke has created colorful sunsets from Oregon to British Columbia, but a low pressure system is expected to flush most of the smoke out by Friday.


Figure 1. Thick smoke from forest fires burning in Siberia on July 5, 2012 (left) and July 9, 2012 (right.) Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. The view from West Vancouver, British Columbia on Wednesday was obscured by thick smoke from forest fires burning in Siberia. Image credit: ThemeGreen's Webcam.

Colorado's most destructive wildfire in its history finally contained
It's been another severe year for wildfires in the U.S., with the National Interagency Fire Center reporting 4800 square miles of burned acreage thus far in 2012, an area about 87% of the size of Connecticut. This is pretty close to the 10-year average for this point in the year, and ranks as the fourth highest of the past ten years. However, with summer not yet half over, and more than 2/3 of the Western U.S. experiencing moderate to extreme drought, the Western U.S. fire season still has plenty of time to add significant acreage to its burn total. The hardest-hit state at present is Idaho, where one-third of the country's large fires (twelve) are burning. The worst fires of 2012 so far have been in Colorado, which had its hottest and driest June since record keeping began in 1895. Colorado's most destructive wildfire in its history, the 29-square mile Waldo Canyon fire, was finally 100% contained on Wednesday, aided by a week of relatively cool and wet weather. The fire killed two people and destroyed nearly 350 houses when it burned into northwestern Colorado Springs. Colorado's second most destructive and second largest fire in recorded history was the High Park Fire, fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire was 100% contained on June 30. According to the Denver Post, the High Park Fire burned in an area where 70% of the trees that have been killed by mountain pine beetles; the insects have devastated forests in western North America in recent years. So did pine beetle damage contribute to this year's devastating Colorado fires? Using Landsat satellite data, a team of scientists led by University of Wisconsin forest ecologist Phil Townsend have discovered that pine beetle damage appears not to have a significant impact in the risk of large fires, and may reduce fire risk in some instances (Video 1.)


Video 1. Wildfire and Pine Beetles: NASA explains how recent devastation of forests in the Rocky Mountains by the mountain pine beetle may be affecting wildfire odds.

Links to follow
Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, has a post on mountain pine beetles and climate change.

I have a post on how climate change is expected to increase Western U.S. fires.

Welcome to the Rest of Our Lives, an 8-minute video put together by climate change videographer Peter SInclair, provides a dramatic look at the extreme weather that has hit the U.S. in June and July.

Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Boulder, Colorado this summer, and had this to say in his June 27 post on the wildfires in Colorado: "The past few days have been relentless. Denver has seen temperatures above 100°F for 5 straight days, and it was 105° today. At the weather station closest to where I live, the thunderstorm that started today’s fire stopped the temperature rise at 97.5 F. The dew point was in the high 30s. The ground temperature in the garden was about 110°. Tonight it all smells of smoke again. It is hard to sleep when the house is 88 degrees and the air smells of smoke. You constantly think of fire."

Death Valley hits 128°: 10th hottest temperature in U.S. history
The high temperature in Death Valley, California hit 128°F (53.3°C) on Wednesday, the hottest temperature measured in the U.S. since July 18, 2009, when Death Valley recorded another 128° reading. Yesterday's 128° was the 10th hottest temperature in U.S. history. The only hotter temperatures were all measured at Death Valley, the most recent one being the 129° measured on July 6, 2007. The all-time high for Death Valley is the 134° reading of July 10, 1913. The forecast for Death Valley calls for a slow cool-down over the next few days, with highs reaching "only" 105° on Monday. That's the date of the start of the grueling Badwater Ultramarathon. Covering 135 miles (217km) non-stop from Death Valley to Mt. Whitney, CA, it is the most demanding and extreme running race offered anywhere on the planet. Lace up your running shoes (not!)

Jeff Masters

Going down, (Glaswegian)
on a hot and humid July evening
Going down,
Workday Sunrise (HarveyCreek)
Going out to the car to head to work, I saw this great sunrise and had to take the time to capture it. This is a panoramic rendition.
Workday Sunrise

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1084. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128216
The 06Z GFS shows a weak tropical depression/storm in the east Atlantic from 07/20-07/23.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31982
1082. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Yesterday was Yoda.Today is a dog.Look the shot.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:


Interesting! But according to many on here "Seasons a Bust". LOL!
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Here's a precip link of the Gulf low moving into New Orleans.

Link
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1077. Jax82
Interesting how the swirl crossing FL is now a Low on the surface map. Not that it stands a chance, but it was an interesting feature to watch yesterday on the visible.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
1076. ncstorm
The ULL/tropical wave that is heading to the east coast has a lot of moisture embedded in it..our NWS speaks on it in

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING IN THE EASTERLY FLOW
AND MODEL SPREAD IS CONSIDERABLE WITH NOT ONLY THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT ALSO WHETHER OR NOT IT HAS ANY SURFACE REFLECTION. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED WITH ITS PROGRESSION AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM...IF IT AFFECTS US AT ALL.



Northwest Atlantic Water Vapor Loop



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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
GFS for 7/21/12

It drops that system shortly after though... Doesn't look like conditions will support further development.
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Heres the 06Z DGEX model and look what it is doing to this Gulf low. Developes Ernesto and moves into New Orleans.


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GFS for 7/21/12
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TS Fabio:



EP, 06, 2012071312, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1102W, 55, 995, TS

TS Emilia:



EP, 05, 2012071312, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1254W, 55, 994, TS
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The top 4 connected kinked lines represent 4days of Emilia's path since it became a hurricane*.

The bottom 3 connected kinked lines represent 3days of Daniels's path as a hurricane.

Note how Emilia has pret much fallen into the trough carved by Daniel's passage.

* As of the 13July6amGMT ATCF, Emilia became a TropicalStorm again on the final dot of the 4th day.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:


Euro has something in this area as well then loses it.

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I just watched the lightening video. wow, My little girls said wow that was not censored!

I was on the USCG Sagebrush (WLB 399 since retired and sank ) when it was hit by a bolt. WOW
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Is now 6 days in a row that the daily SOI is in positive. What it means in terms of El Nino comming soon remains to be seen depending on how much time it remains in positive and that reflects in the 30 day index.

Link
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Quoting Autistic2:


wow, Little shop pf horros anyone?


It would be more appropriate if the GM'd fava beans with the liver genes... "I ate his liver with some fava beans and a nice chianti."
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Quoting Skyepony:


Really? Cause GMO isn't like line-breeding...

Did you work on the GMO rice being grown outdoors in KS? The one with human liver DNA worked into it? The first plant inbred with human DNA..It's not made for eating...not approved for it & certainly not recommended. Only grown for making Pharmaceuticals. Now it's breeding on the open wind with rice for eating..

Anheuser-Busch refusing to buy rice from any state where this is grown & all the protesting isn't stopping it either..

This is not knee jerk. This has been going on for years. It was one of my original studies in school. GMO was suppose to be a wonderful thing that allowed crops to grow with near no water, resist disease & pollinate in higher temps. Even before I finished it was clear this was a horrid endeavor for our food source...the intentions were all for profit on seed & Chemicals, while setting in motion another unstoppable experiment with our environment & main food crops.. We need crop diversity, we don't need crops that make pesticide or can be sprayed with Round up before you eat it. This stuff is being released & is breeding on the wind with the rest of it out there. They say organic corn will be done in less than 10 years because we can't stop the crossbreeding. At the same time Purdue university has found a new type of fungus living around the gut & reproductive organs of animals eating certain types of GMO. It's been verified GMO & the chemicals invoked are helping stress the bees to death. & all this spraying of herbicide has created a bad super weed that destroys combines. This is on top of the climate change & energy use issues I brought up earlier.

In many ways this protest to the rider proposed for next year's Farm Bill is a joke because no GMO has been denied. It's only been slowed. Killing this rider would not even begin to stop GMO, that is not what this is about. Even once things like Bayer's Clothianidin killing the bees, Round Up in the rain, life shortening-reproductive limiting fungus was verified~ nothing has been done in this country. France & some other countries are trying to save their food but are under constant pressure about it.

The one thing that makes this a must take action on is it is preserving our choice to eat organic...to be free to choose what we eat and to not outlaw ongoing research on GMO that has already been approved. Very quick way to take action now linked here..


wow, Little shop pf horros anyone?
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Looks like a hot few days for south Florida next week...

THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE RIDGING BUILDING
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND THIS RIDGE WILL BE
STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPS ALONG
WITH HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
IMPRESSIVE 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE OVER AFRICA AND INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS OF NEAR 600
DECAMETERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
WESTWARD WITH TIME NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASINGLY HOT AIRMASS
LOCALLY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW 850 MB TEMPS UP TO 20C BY MID WEEK...SOME
+2.5C ABOVE AVG. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE MEX/MCX GUIDANCE BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM AS OPPOSED TO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AS THE HOTTER
GFS NUMBERS LOOK MORE APPROPRIATE...AND IT COULD END UP HOTTER.
HEAT INDICES LIKELY WILL BE IN THE 100-105 RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FL.
ALSO...A FORMIDABLE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) COULD MOVE IN SOMETIME
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING
HAZY SKIES TO THE AREA AND A LESSER COVERAGE OF TSTORMS, THOUGH
THEY COULD BE STRONGER GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY. WE HAVE DAYS
TO SEE HOW STRONG THIS RIDGE WILL BE AND IF A SAL MOVES IN...BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS SUCH.
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High pressure will lead to mostly sunny skies today. A slow moving low pressure system will traverse the state this weekend, proving a chance of some thunderstorms. Another round of hot weather can be expected Monday and Tuesday before a cold front drops down from the north, providing a chance of rain Wednesday and bringing cooler temperatures to the area by late next week.
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1061. bappit
Quoting wanzewurld:


I've been watching this counter-clockwise rotation on water vapor loops from NWS for the past couple of days and wonder if it's significant? There are a lot of things that look BAD on water vapor loops but aren't terribly relevant so I'm looking for some explanation, if you please.

Water vapor loops are infrared images specifically at the wave lengths of infrared light emitted by water vapor. If water vapor is present at the higher levels of the troposphere the brighter the image. If high/cold clouds are present there will be lots of cold water vapor associated with the clouds, so high clouds show up well, too. If air is sinking in the upper atmosphere, it will warm adiabatically including the water vapor in it, so areas of subsidence will appear darker. When swirls show up well on water vapor images, they are at high levels of the atmosphere. The brighter pixels stand out in contrast with nearby sinking air.

Sometimes tropical upper level lows can develop into surface lows but not often. Tropical systems require vorticity at lower levels and rising air. An upper level low will often have an area of diffluence to its east which can promote convection and increase the strength of a passing easterly wave or other feature in the lower atmosphere.

Upper level lows can contain relatively strong winds which can cause shear for nearby low level tropical systems. They also can transport dry air in the mid to upper levels into a tropical system.

When a wave approaches an upper level low, it can become a sort of race. Will the upper level low provide ventilation and move westward fast enough to not shear the tropical system and inject dry air? Stay tuned for the 2012 hurricane season to find out.
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Good Morning. Here is a portion of the Tallahassee NWS discussion from this am. A good discussion of the large scale synoptic pattern for the Gulf. I am not bullish on a storm in the Gulf but I suppose anything could happen.......I'll leave it at that...... :)


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
520 AM EDT Fri Jul 13 2012

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Friday]...
There are some generally minor to moderate discrepancies between the the 00 UTC GFS and ECMWF runs through much of the extended period, with the GFS favoring Upper Level Ridging over the SE U.S.
and a Sfc Ridge over the Northern Gulf, while the Euro has weaker Upper Ridging displaced off to our NW, with a weakness in the Pattern Aloft which gradually slides down to our CWA from the NE
over time. The ECMWF also favors somewhat weaker Sfc Ridging over the Gulf, with a slightly stronger Bermuda High (which will have to first displace an active TUTT Low to verify). While both solutions favor onshore low level flow(which is generally favorable for fairly high Sea Breeze induced PoPs this time of year), we leaned more towards the GFS solution in which the Upper Ridging would suppress PoPs a bit below Climo and Sea Breeze Climo levels, and also allow for above normal Temps with Highs in the Mid 90s away from the Coast.
&&

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 131055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N32W TO
8N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS PRECEDING THE AREA DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N48W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
ITCZ. LOW AND WAVE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND
SURFACE TROUGHS...THUS DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 15N17W TO 14N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 7N32W ALONG 6N43W CONTINUING S OF THE LOW/TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 7N49W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 11N16W
ALONG 11N23W 7N33W TO 8N44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH DIPS S ACROSS E TEXAS AND THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN STILL GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND IN THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM TERREBONNE
BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 27N92W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA COVERING THE FAR NE GULF. A WEAK
MESOSCALE LOW HAS MOVED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND IS NOW 1014 MB
CENTERED AT 13/0900 UTC NEAR 29N85W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA THROUGH THE LOW TO
26N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N88W AND SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 13/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 26N87W INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W CONTINUING TO THE NW
CORNER OF GUATEMALA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120/150 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 20N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N TO
THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-84W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N-25N W OF 95W...AND
WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF TUXPAN AND W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE NW
THROUGH SUN AS A SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SLIDES S TO THE FAR
NE GULF BY MON. THE MESOSCALE LOW AND TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO CUBA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND WITHIN 90/120 NM
ALONG THE S COAST FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO W CUBA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HAITI BETWEEN
71W-74W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA
BORDER THEN IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA S OF 13N W OF 80W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA E OF 80W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 71W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
BREEZE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO E CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA COVERS THE FAR NW
ATLC N OF 28N W OF 75W. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N65W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N57W TO 20N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 25N52W ALONG 26N60W
TO 30N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N
BETWEEN 70W-78W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W
ALONG 35N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURGE OF DENSE
SAHARAN DUST OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 16N-32N E OF 33W
AND FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 32W-50W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SUN THEN SLIDE S TO NEAR 31N MON AS A HIGH CENTER WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 28N63W. THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO
WILL MOVE W AND REACH FROM 30N65W TO 23N69W TONIGHT FROM 30N70W
TO 23N72W SAT NIGHT FROM 30N71W TO 23N74W BY SUN NIGHT THEN
BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR NW ATLC MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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1058. SuzK
Quoting Patrap:
The X1 Flare/CME fits right in with the Timewave Zero Graph Novelty Spike Downward.





I would really love to understand what time wave zero is about.
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TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N48W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
ITCZ. LOW AND WAVE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 48W-53W.
something.to.watch
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 990.9mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.0 2.8

Center Temp : +3.6C Cloud Region Temp : -27.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in DK GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 998.7mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -55.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

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Quoting bappit:

DSIPT


Yes,it looks like it doesn't last long.
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1052. bappit
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. A low has been added to the 06Z TAFB Surface Analysis.


DSIPT
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...FABIO INTENSIFYING...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 13
Location: 14.2°N 109.6°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 14.2N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 14.8N 110.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.4N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 15.8N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.0N 115.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 17.1N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 19.3N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 22.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


...EMILIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 13
Location: 15.4°N 124.8°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 15.4N 124.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 15.6N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.8N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.0N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.2N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 16.3N 140.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z 16.3N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z 16.3N 150.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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Good morning. A low has been added to the 06Z TAFB Surface Analysis.

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1049. LargoFl
....................good morning folks,clear here this morning so far which is ok,but rain this afternoon is a good bet..have a great day everyone and TGIF
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1048. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WITH OTHER
STORMS FORMING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL. THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION FORMING
ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EACH DAY. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
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1047. LargoFl
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1046. LargoFl
Quoting emguy:


Interesting news on the updated MJO diagrams...In the mean time, been keeping my mouth quiet about it for the last day of so, but there is not, never has been, and will not be anything worthy of condsidering for tropical development over the Bahamas, Florida, or Eastern Gulf based on what is there now. It's not 0%, it's more like minus 15%. I understand it's a slow point in the season, but I also hope people refocus their energy from mongering thunderstorms, towards understanding normal summer weather conditions in Florida, Bahamas, and Eastern Gulf in the summer (including interactions with tropical waves and Upper Level Lows). There is nothing there to consider for development folks, it's just summertime weather in the region.
..yes i kinda agree with that..although the storms have been a bit stronger lately around the gulf, this is just the normal summer rainy season with a few surprises yes, but it IS..just the rainy season
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1045. duranta
Quoting greentortuloni:


I read that most of hte 'protection' of GM crops has already been evolved around by both insects and disease.

I was of a mixed opinion when the concept was first developed. I really hoped it would do what it was supposed to do and sometimes inventions work out well... on the other hand, it was releasing something into nature that didn't go through all of nature's normal quality control processes.

Seems like playing god should be left to God, at least for the moment. I'm surpised that som many bible belt regions were for it, I guess like everywhere money is stronger than morals.


No, Monsanto lied, and the Feds let them get away with it.
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1041. emguy
Quoting Stormchaser121:
\
MJO going back to phase one....here we go!


Interesting news on the updated MJO diagrams...In the mean time, been keeping my mouth quiet about it for the last day of so, but there is not, never has been, and will not be anything worthy of condsidering for tropical development over the Bahamas, Florida, or Eastern Gulf based on what is there now. It's not 0%, it's more like minus 15%. I understand it's a slow point in the season, but I also hope people refocus their energy from mongering thunderstorms, towards understanding normal summer weather conditions in Florida, Bahamas, and Eastern Gulf in the summer (including interactions with tropical waves and Upper Level Lows). There is nothing there to consider for development folks, it's just summertime weather in the region.
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Quoting weatherh98:
TUTT


I've been watching this counter-clockwise rotation on water vapor loops from NWS for the past couple of days and wonder if it's significant? There are a lot of things that look BAD on water vapor loops but aren't terribly relevant so I'm looking for some explanation, if you please.
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\
MJO going back to phase one....here we go!
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\
MJO going back to phase one....here we go!
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Quoting Tribucanes:
My last 36 hours have been unspeakably bad. Hollywood couldn't have written this script. So sorry for not getting my blog done today. Been a devastating day and a half and I don't know when I'll have the time to dedicate to it. Hopefully soon, but I just don't know at the moment. TMI to elaborate and this ain't Dr. Phil, so I'll keep it at that. Life just took a Category 5 on me. I'm out for possibly quite some time, really enjoy the blog and bloggers here; hope I get to dedicate some time again to it soon. Peace W


Sounds like you're going through a trying time. You've been a good friend to me, and I will be here if you ever need anything.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
Woow........guys watch this video :)

Link
that was awesome, thanks for the vid
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My last 36 hours have been unspeakably bad. Hollywood couldn't have written this script. So sorry for not getting my blog done today. Been a devastating day and a half and I don't know when I'll have the time to dedicate to it. Hopefully soon, but I just don't know at the moment. TMI to elaborate and this ain't Dr. Phil, so I'll keep it at that. Life just took a Category 5 on me. I'm out for possibly quite some time, really enjoy the blog and bloggers here; hope I get to dedicate some time again to it soon. Peace W
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Quoting Patrap:


All those African Continent Waves may look intriguing over Africa, its how that fare 2-3 into the Atlantic that usually tells the tale on them though.

I never give them credence till I see some Vorticity in the Atlantic post transition.

Wise choice, Pat
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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