Extreme events of 2011: climate change a major factor in some, but not all

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2012

Share this Blog
50
+

The science of quantifying how climate change changes the odds of extreme weather events like droughts and floods took a major step forward Tuesday with the publication of NOAA's annual summary of the past year's weather. The 2011 State of the Climate report contains a separate peer-reviewed article published in the July issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society titled, Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 From a Climate Perspective. In the paper, a group of scientists led by Peter Stott of the Met Office Centre in the United Kingdom looked at how climate change may have changed the odds of occurrence of some of 2011's notable weather extremes. These kinds of attribution studies require huge amounts of computer time and take many months to do, but the scientists plan to start making this a regular part of the annual NOAA State of the Climate report. Some of their findings for 2011:

- Determining the causes of extreme events remains difficult. While scientists cannot trace specific events to climate change with absolute certainty, new and continued research help scientists understand how the probability of extreme events change in response to global warming.

- La Niña-related heat waves, like that experienced in Texas in 2011, are now 20 times more likely to occur during La Niña years today than La Niña years fifty years ago.

- The UK experienced a very warm November 2011 and a very cold December 2010. In analyzing these two very different events, UK scientists uncovered interesting changes in the odds. Cold Decembers are now half as likely to occur now versus fifty years ago, whereas warm Novembers are now 62 times more likely.

- The devastating 2011 floods in Thailand caused an estimated $45 billion in damage, making it the world's most expensive river flooding disaster in history. The study found, however, that the amount of rain that fell in the catchment area was not very unusual, and that other factors such as human-caused changes to the flood plain and the movement of more people into flood-prone areas were more important in causing the disaster. "Climate change cannot be shown to have played any role in this event," the study concluded, but warned that climate models predict an increase in the probability of extreme precipitation events in the future in the region.

- The deadly drought in East Africa, which killed tens of thousands of people in 2011, was made more likely by warming waters in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific. While the scientists did not specifically tie the warming of these waters to human-caused global warming, they noted that climate models predict continued warming of these waters in the coming decades, and this will likely "contribute to more frequent East African droughts during the spring and summer."


Figure 1. An SH-60F Sea Hawk helicopter assigned to Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 14, flies around the Bangkok area with members of the humanitarian assessment survey team and the Royal Thai Armed Forces to assess the damage caused by the 2011 floods. Image credit: Petty Officer 1st Class Jennifer Villalovos.

Weather on steroids
One interesting aspect of the paper was the scientists' use of the baseball player-steroids analogy to help explain how climate change can increase the odds of extreme weather: "One analogy of the effects of climate change on extreme weather is with a baseball player (or to choose another sport, a cricketer) who starts taking steroids and afterwards hits on average 20% more home runs (or sixes) in a season than he did before (Meehl 2012). For any one of his home runs (sixes) during the years the player was taking steroids, you would not know for sure whether it was caused by steroids or not. But you might be able to attribute his increased number to the steroids. And given that steroids have resulted in a 20% increased chance that any particular swing of the player’s bat results in a home run (or a six), you would be able to make an attribution statement that, all other things being equal, steroid use had increased the probability of that particular occurrence by 20%. The job of the attribution assessment is to distinguish the effects of anthropogenic climate change or some other external factor (steroids in the sporting analogy) from natural variability (e.g., in the baseball analogy, the player’s natural ability to hit home runs or the configuration of a particular stadium)."



Video 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist Dr. Jerry Meehl explains how climate change's impact on extreme weather is like how steroids affect a baseball player.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1331 - 1281

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Morning everyone. With all the tropical weather it feels like it should be August, not July. More rain here in Louisiana and we're not complaining at all. Everyone have a great day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1330. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
1329. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
1328. LargoFl
Might be getting a bit bad in Texas, they are activating their spotters and emergency managers there..stay alert folks in texas....................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO CONROE TO COLUMBUS LINE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GROUND IS INCREASINGLY SATURATED AND HEAVY
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
ACTIVATION.
$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting Autistic2:
I got up and read back a few pages. Here is my only coment.

When the Atlantic is quite things get a little off subject in the wee hours.


What was talked about?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if you guys look at the wunderground ssts you notice a light orange line forming near the equator. thats shows a cooling and a slowdown of the development of el nino
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1325. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
1324. LargoFl
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Per the NCEP Caribbean desk, the rain should pick up later for PR and parts nearby over the next few days:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
715 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW NOW CENTERS NEAR 25N 61W...ANCHORING A BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PESTERING THE USVI/PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. PWAT IS ALSO RISING...INCREASING TO 35-40MM.

AS THE LOW/TUTT ROLLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL SUSTAIN AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...TO ESTABLISH ALONG 67W/68W LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PULL EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ON ITS WAKE...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PR/USVI THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SUSTAINING PWAT OF 35-40MM AND FAVORING K INDEX VALUES
OF 30-32.

THIS TRANSLATES TO GENERALLY WET WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH AGREEING ON BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO PEAK AT 15-20MM. CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW IS TO INITIALLY FAVOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH CELLS QUICKLY SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. MOST ACTIVE IS TO CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24 HRS AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK AT 25-50MM...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 75-100MM. THIS IS TO REPEAT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.

DURING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AND ONCE AGAIN FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SUNDAY-MONDAY.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)




..this is good they have been looking for rain
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Per the NCEP Caribbean desk, the rain should pick up later for PR and parts nearby over the next few days:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
715 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW NOW CENTERS NEAR 25N 61W...ANCHORING A BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PESTERING THE USVI/PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. PWAT IS ALSO RISING...INCREASING TO 35-40MM.

AS THE LOW/TUTT ROLLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL SUSTAIN AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...TO ESTABLISH ALONG 67W/68W LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PULL EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ON ITS WAKE...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PR/USVI THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SUSTAINING PWAT OF 35-40MM AND FAVORING K INDEX VALUES
OF 30-32.

THIS TRANSLATES TO GENERALLY WET WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH AGREEING ON BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO PEAK AT 15-20MM. CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW IS TO INITIALLY FAVOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH CELLS QUICKLY SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. MOST ACTIVE IS TO CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24 HRS AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK AT 25-50MM...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 75-100MM. THIS IS TO REPEAT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.

DURING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AND ONCE AGAIN FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SUNDAY-MONDAY.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1322. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
1321. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting CaribBoy:
Boring weather in the E Carib, I would love the ULL to the north to dive into us and bring rain!


At least in PR the ENE flow that the ULL has in the position it is now,is bringing scattered showers. Let's see if the trough and Tropical Wave that is now at 43W combine to really bring rainy weather this weekend.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1319. LargoFl
Quoting icmoore:
img src="Photobucket">

Good morning. A little cooler here in Madeira Beach this morning at 78 degrees after getting 1.70" of rain yesterday afternoon. Today's forecast calls for a 60% chance of thunderstorms likely after noon.
This a shot I took of the clouds across the Boca Ciega Bay heading over to us yesterday afternoon.
..nice pic there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
I got up and read back a few pages. Here is my only coment.

When the Atlantic is quite things get a little off subject in the wee hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning Folks. Looking at the SE US loops this morning, looking like another round of rain for the Gulf States from Texas to Florida and daytime heating-sea breeze convection will contribute to some heavy t-storms, The next round for LA heading in from Texas at the moment. While sheer is low around Florida, no significant pressure issues with the Naples bouy location near that little patch of convection:

Station NPSF1
NOS
Location: 26.130N 81.807W
Date: Thu, 12 Jul 2012 11:06:00 UTC

Winds: WSW (240°) at 9.9 kt gusting to 12.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in
Air Temperature: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 85.3 F




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Boring weather in the E Carib, I would love the ULL to the north to dive into us and bring rain!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is today, pretty high in tahiti for going onwards el niño


Date. Tahiti. Darwin. Daily. 30 day. 90 day
12 Jul 2012 1015.36 1011.45 18.22 -7.77 -3.48
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've got to go for a while:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

The daily SOI continues to be in positive for a 5th day in a row. If this continues for a while,then El Nino may have to wait a while longer.

Link

Wow!

Niño 1+2 cooled slightly at last update too so it could be another what 3 weeks tacked on with the cooling and positive SOI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning.

The daily SOI continues to be in positive for a 5th day in a row. If this continues for a while,then El Nino may have to wait a while longer.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Morning guys

Six-E looks massive!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Temperatures will moderate to around 90 degrees as we head toward the Weekend, with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Clouds and possible showers over the weekend will likely keep maxes stuck in the 80s, but 90 degrees is likely to return early next week.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
big.winterstorm.expected.tomoorow.s.africa
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1306. icmoore
img src="Photobucket">

Good morning. A little cooler here in Madeira Beach this morning at 78 degrees after getting 1.70" of rain yesterday afternoon. Today's forecast calls for a 60% chance of thunderstorms likely after noon.
This a shot I took of the clouds across the Boca Ciega Bay heading over to us yesterday afternoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0421 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 120921Z - 121145Z

SUMMARY...A SW/NE-ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD PERSIST NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 2 IN/HR.

DISCUSSION...A 10-15 MILE WIDE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BLOSSOMED DURING
THE PAST HOUR...CENTERED FROM COLORADO TO POLK COUNTIES AS OF 0910Z.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WAA /INFERRED BY HGX VWP DATA/ AND PERHAPS AIDED BY A
REMNANT MCV JUST E OF GALVESTON BAY. WITHIN THIS BAND...THE CONROE
ASOS /KCXO/ MEASURED 2.78 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 72 MINUTES ENDING AT
0913Z. WITH GPS PW VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL OWING TO MODEST MEAN SWLY
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE INITIATION CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN REPEATED
TRAINING OF CELLS. THIS REGIME SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS UNTIL LAPSE RATES BECOME SUFFICIENTLY NEUTRAL AND CONVECTION
WANES.

..GRAMS.. 07/12/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON 29779684 30619534 31299459 31409415 31249375 31069381
30219478 29819568 29549649 29609681 29779684

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2012 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 15:05:00 N Lon : 120:25:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.6mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +5.6C Cloud Region Temp : -61.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Good morning eveyone
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1299. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
IS IS LIKELY THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZES
TO BRING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SEVERAL STORMS LIKELY REACHING
SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH
WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
1298. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
610 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

FLZ069-070-121045-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
610 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 645 AM EDT

* AT 605 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG WINDS IS ENTERING COASTAL COLLIER
COUNTY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF BONITA SPRINGS
TO 4 MILES WEST OF MARCO ISLAND TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
ROMANO...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
NAPLES...
SOUTH NAPLES...
EAST NAPLES...
BELLE MEADE...
CAPE ROMANO...
GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 45 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

LAT...LON 2632 8181 2632 8167 2636 8166 2638 8153
2595 8154 2589 8156 2590 8162 2589 8164
2590 8165 2589 8168 2586 8166 2584 8168
2591 8174 2599 8176 2609 8181 2630 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1007Z 267DEG 17KT 2628 8177 2595 8178
2576 8182

$$

60
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
1297. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
1296. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
1295. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
1294. LargoFl
..............................good morning folks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
I see the FL low now.. it just exited FL to the W. Guess I was rain-blinded earlier. Not a big one, but it'll do.
And generally if the GOM, if you can see it, it WILL develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, everyone.

Just got in from a night of fishing. Sitting down having a bowl of soup before we go back to clean and sell them. Anyone interested in Yellowtail Snapper? I have a couple of hundred pounds to sell!

Anyway, need to check the weather and get going.

Have a great day!

Lindy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Astrometeor:


My family (cousins, aunts, uncles, grandparents) have a Christmas in July every year. We do a coin grab and a Secret Santa. Say hi, share stories and meet up with each other basically. It's often the only time I get to see my cousins.

Family reunion 2nd weekend of June every year, calm time between planting and main harvest, usually know which fields have corn and such ripe enough for dinner. Pulling 80-100 family during the past decade. The 84th (we think) annual reunion was last month. Always interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1290. vanwx
That is less than 1/2 of what hit north of Corpus Christi, but"ouch'. I think we need a new name for such storms. No storm surge, high winds, eye walls but that has got to hurt,,it's the new post hurricane disaster. It may npt have the drama of a hurricane but people are still out of work and their houses are ruined. My best wishes for a good recovery.
re, post 1209
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:
Just a friendly reminder, please keep politics off this weather blog.

And religion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here we go, things are starting to fire now, just where I expected them.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Joe, I saw your post earlier about the tropical moisture coming up, just wanted to say I hope you get some rain up there in the mountains!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:
May as well clear this up, it's as good as of a time as any... It's not the same girl from last weekend, but a different one. You could say now she's my ex-ex-girlfriend :P Pretty much long story short, after the last breakup my friend who was my ex had some deep conversations which led to some truths which led to us getting back together. :-)

TL;dr got back with my ex after stuff happened :)

And I'm really happy about it too :-D
Daaaaamn player
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WHXX01 KMIA 120720
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0720 UTC THU JUL 12 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (EP062012) 20120712 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120712 0600 120712 1800 120713 0600 120713 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 106.1W 14.1N 107.4W 14.7N 108.7W 15.5N 110.0W
BAMD 13.5N 106.1W 14.1N 107.5W 14.7N 108.7W 15.3N 110.0W
BAMM 13.5N 106.1W 14.2N 107.6W 14.9N 108.9W 15.6N 110.2W
LBAR 13.5N 106.1W 14.2N 107.9W 15.3N 110.1W 16.2N 112.3W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 47KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 47KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120714 0600 120715 0600 120716 0600 120717 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 111.3W 17.9N 114.3W 19.5N 117.9W 20.9N 121.1W
BAMD 15.8N 111.3W 17.1N 114.2W 18.9N 117.2W 21.2N 119.7W
BAMM 16.2N 111.5W 17.6N 114.3W 19.4N 117.6W 21.2N 120.4W
LBAR 17.2N 114.4W 18.1N 118.2W 19.4N 121.1W 21.3N 123.0W
SHIP 60KTS 62KTS 52KTS 38KTS
DSHP 60KTS 62KTS 52KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 106.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 104.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 102.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

And here it is. TD 6-E.
Also, Emilia has re-weakened to upper Category 2 strength, as of the 06Z ATCF.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
12/0600 UTC 13.2N 106.5W T2.5/2.5 98E

That's quite a jump, T# supports a TD.

Not only does it support a TD, but also supports a low-end tropical storm. If I'm not mistaken, T2.5 corresponds to 35 kts.
Also, since NHC has given 98E a 100% chance of becoming a TD, advisories on TD 6-E will probably be issued at 5am or 11am today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1282. JLPR2
12/0600 UTC 13.2N 106.5W T2.5/2.5 98E

That's quite a jump, T# supports a TD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nofailsafe:


Ruh roh.

Indeed. If that verifies, rain of that magnitude during a morning commute will cause problems, I guarantee that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1331 - 1281

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.