Extreme events of 2011: climate change a major factor in some, but not all

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2012

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The science of quantifying how climate change changes the odds of extreme weather events like droughts and floods took a major step forward Tuesday with the publication of NOAA's annual summary of the past year's weather. The 2011 State of the Climate report contains a separate peer-reviewed article published in the July issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society titled, Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 From a Climate Perspective. In the paper, a group of scientists led by Peter Stott of the Met Office Centre in the United Kingdom looked at how climate change may have changed the odds of occurrence of some of 2011's notable weather extremes. These kinds of attribution studies require huge amounts of computer time and take many months to do, but the scientists plan to start making this a regular part of the annual NOAA State of the Climate report. Some of their findings for 2011:

- Determining the causes of extreme events remains difficult. While scientists cannot trace specific events to climate change with absolute certainty, new and continued research help scientists understand how the probability of extreme events change in response to global warming.

- La Niña-related heat waves, like that experienced in Texas in 2011, are now 20 times more likely to occur during La Niña years today than La Niña years fifty years ago.

- The UK experienced a very warm November 2011 and a very cold December 2010. In analyzing these two very different events, UK scientists uncovered interesting changes in the odds. Cold Decembers are now half as likely to occur now versus fifty years ago, whereas warm Novembers are now 62 times more likely.

- The devastating 2011 floods in Thailand caused an estimated $45 billion in damage, making it the world's most expensive river flooding disaster in history. The study found, however, that the amount of rain that fell in the catchment area was not very unusual, and that other factors such as human-caused changes to the flood plain and the movement of more people into flood-prone areas were more important in causing the disaster. "Climate change cannot be shown to have played any role in this event," the study concluded, but warned that climate models predict an increase in the probability of extreme precipitation events in the future in the region.

- The deadly drought in East Africa, which killed tens of thousands of people in 2011, was made more likely by warming waters in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific. While the scientists did not specifically tie the warming of these waters to human-caused global warming, they noted that climate models predict continued warming of these waters in the coming decades, and this will likely "contribute to more frequent East African droughts during the spring and summer."


Figure 1. An SH-60F Sea Hawk helicopter assigned to Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 14, flies around the Bangkok area with members of the humanitarian assessment survey team and the Royal Thai Armed Forces to assess the damage caused by the 2011 floods. Image credit: Petty Officer 1st Class Jennifer Villalovos.

Weather on steroids
One interesting aspect of the paper was the scientists' use of the baseball player-steroids analogy to help explain how climate change can increase the odds of extreme weather: "One analogy of the effects of climate change on extreme weather is with a baseball player (or to choose another sport, a cricketer) who starts taking steroids and afterwards hits on average 20% more home runs (or sixes) in a season than he did before (Meehl 2012). For any one of his home runs (sixes) during the years the player was taking steroids, you would not know for sure whether it was caused by steroids or not. But you might be able to attribute his increased number to the steroids. And given that steroids have resulted in a 20% increased chance that any particular swing of the player’s bat results in a home run (or a six), you would be able to make an attribution statement that, all other things being equal, steroid use had increased the probability of that particular occurrence by 20%. The job of the attribution assessment is to distinguish the effects of anthropogenic climate change or some other external factor (steroids in the sporting analogy) from natural variability (e.g., in the baseball analogy, the player’s natural ability to hit home runs or the configuration of a particular stadium)."



Video 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist Dr. Jerry Meehl explains how climate change's impact on extreme weather is like how steroids affect a baseball player.

Jeff Masters

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331. yoboi
they do make carbon filters, one small carbon filter 12 inches by 12 inches can catch more carbon than 5 trees.....
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Permian–Triassic extinction event aka the Great Dying

Suggested Causes: multiple bolide impact events, increased volcanism, coal/gas fires and explosions from the Siberian Traps, and sudden release of methane clathrate from the sea floor; gradual changes include sea-level change, anoxia, increasing aridity, and a shift in ocean circulation driven by climate change

Now this is cool! See what plate tectonics can do?




Wouldn't it be cool to live with the dinosaurs?

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Quoting schistkicker:
[...]In order to sequester carbon near the surface you need anoxic, stagnant conditions, such as a swamp. Most of the deposits that we're tapping into for the fossilized carbon they contain (oil, coal, etc) are from ancient environments of this type, not upland or temperate forests.
The lifetime of most trees is on the scale of 100 years to 1000 years. Consider that sea level has changed from its present level as much as plus 10 meters to minus 120 meters in the last 20,000 years. So the status of "upland" forests easily can change to bottomland during the life of the forest. Also, anoxic conditions are found in local lowlands far inland from the sea: eutrophication and filling in of freshwater lakes provides one example of how carbon can be buried in highland temperate forests.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
113 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
NORTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT.


* AT 111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARMONY...OR NEAR
HOLOPAW...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH
..it looks like your in the path today stormtracker..stay safe out there
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Quoting dogsgomoo:


We had some tree damage in our area (Atlanta) from yesterday's thunderstorms. And so much rain at once that it hurt to go out in it. Felt like you were being pelted with a million spitballs at once. Supposed to go another round today and the clouds look like they are getting ready already. Can't wait since we still do need the rain.


good thing i wasnt there.
just missed a heavy tstorm driving in VA yesterday
hoping for rain today since im back
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE EMILIA CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 117.3W AT 1500 UTC MOVING
WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM ON FRI.

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 141.2W AT 1500 UTC
MOVING W AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAS MOVED W OF THE AREA.
SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
TCMCP1/WTPA21 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.

1005 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N103W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND T-STORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTIVE BEGINNING TO
WRAP AROUND THE LOW. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW HAS A HIGH...80 PERCENT...CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 09N92W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 12N103W...THEN FROM 12N117W TO 07N125W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 04N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 135 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND
101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150
NM OF THE LOW NEAR 12N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUING
ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS. THE PRIMARY GENESIS REGION WITHIN THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE S OF MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 108W. DANIEL
AND EMILIA FORMED IN THAT AREA...AND IT NOW APPEARS ANOTHER LOW
IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF STRONG
WINDS N OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OF HURRICANE EMILIA...WITH FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS LOCATED UP TO 450 NM S OF THE CENTER. WW3 WAVE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES EMILIA HAS A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8
FT OR GREATER...UP TO 600 NM FROM THE CENTER...WHICH IS A RESULT
OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD EXPANDING EVEN AS THE CENTRAL CORE
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
MIXING WITH A BROAD MIX OF SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE EMILIA

THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 12N103W IS FIGHTING
AGAINST NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR FROM EMILIA...BUT THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DESPITE SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS...AS NEARLY ALL U.S. FCST MODELS INCLUDING GFS -
NOGAPS - NAM AND ENSEMBLES FAVOR GROWTH.

AN AREA OF FRESH N-NE WINDS IS EXPECTED N OF 27N BETWEEN 126W
AND 135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
IN THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD SW THROUGH FRI AS EMILIA MOVES S OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

$$
MUNDELL

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting LargoFl:
..so you now see...doomsday is approaching
Well, doomsday is always approaching.

You're older than you've ever been.
And now you're even older / And now you're even older / And now you're even older.

You're older than you've ever been.
And now you're even older.
And now you're older still.

TIME! Is marching on.
And time.. is still marching on.
This day will soon be at an end and now it's even sooner.
And now it's even sooner.
And now it's even sooner.
This day will soon be at an end and now it's even sooner.
And now it's even sooner.
And now it's sooner still.


We had some tree damage in our area (Atlanta) from yesterday's thunderstorms. And so much rain at once that it hurt to go out in it. Felt like you were being pelted with a million spitballs at once. Supposed to go another round today and the clouds look like they are getting ready already. Can't wait since we still do need the rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
324. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:


i have one kid, have a telecommuting job, walk, ride a bike or the bus or the train pretty much everywhere and don't really 'vacation' more than once every 4 years or so. my car is 10 years old and will go another 10 years at least and is still a LEV. i compost my food scraps and work at a community garden teaching others how to grow their own food and reduce their wastes and water usage. my house stays warm in the summer and cold in the winter.

so, am i 'pure' enough to be allowed to believe that humans are influencing the climate, despite the fact that this fact has absolutely nothing at all to do with my own personal behaviours? the fact that the globe is warming has nothing to do with what 'crowd' you belong to. that's garbage tribalism.



just remember before a big change there is always a big debate, talking and debating is a good thing...
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 111746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 10N TO 21N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NEARBY LOW CLOUDS THAT COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W FROM 10N TO 22N. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NEARBY LOW CLOUDS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 18N IN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL
TO 25N JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N73W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH
FEATURE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MORE
INVOLVED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W
AND 75W AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND
76W AND ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR
17N16W TO 12N25W AND 11N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N36W TO
6N45W AND 6N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W ACROSS TRINIDAD AND PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W AND FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 36W AND 42W AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND
58W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 11/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.48 OF AN INCH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 31N84W IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO 26N87W...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 23N88W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 19N97W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
EAST OF 85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG COVERS THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 74W
AND 80W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT GOES FROM 22N97W TO 19N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 27N99W TO 25N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVES LOUISIANA
AND TEXAS AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN
91W AND 99W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W...TO 24N94W IN THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR FORECAST FOR THE PRESENT TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE
EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA...AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 81W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 11/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.48 OF AN INCH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
25 TO 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 13 FEET
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 82W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
ELSEWHERE RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO A 28N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N66W...
26N71W...TO A 31N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS WITHIN 240 TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG NEAR THE BAHAMAS
FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN
78W AND 80W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO
27N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W AND ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
27N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N54W...TO 34N63W...TO
31N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THREE
AREAS OF 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.
ONE AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. A SECOND
AREA IS FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. A THIRD AREA
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972

You can see Daniel, Emilia, and 98E
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting guygee:
Only partly true. Trees promote the production of soil, and deeper soils can hold carbon for a long time...long enough, in fact, to form fossil fuels in some cases. Consider that much of our coal comes from ancient forests.


Making coal is something the Earth used to do. The Earth quit making coal about 300 million years ago.

"... the evolution of fungi capable of breaking down the polymer lignin, which helps keep plant cell walls rigid, may have played a key role in ending the development of coal deposits. With the arrival of the new fungi, dead plant matter could be completely broken down into its basic chemical components. Instead of accumulating as peat, which eventually was transformed into coal, the great bulk of plant biomass decayed and was released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide."

Link

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Except the carbon doesn't stay locked up in tree's. Tree's are just an ecologically friendly way of kicking the can down the road.


It still beats the heck out of doing nothing!

You're making your argument around permanent carbon sequestration; trees may have finite lives but they don't all surrender carbon at once. Having more trees WOULD help with the carbon issue as well as a host of other problems.

Bad enough that the very existence of GW is still argued, but to now be questioning the value of trees as carbon sinks....
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United States could be close to a turning point in terms of its carbon footprint

Link
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Quoting SouthTampa:


Have you been to a forest? Most tree materials go into the ground. Very little burn in forest fires. Where do you think all the oil comes from? Carbon that was buried a long time ago.

Trees are excellent at sequestering CO2 over a long period of time.


No, tree materials decompose and release methane in the process. The remaining material is used by other plants and life forms to grow and eventually die which continues the cycle.

Trees and forest do not produce dirt to bury themselves with. When a plant dies in the forest, almost all of it is reused by the surrounding life forms. A small fraction of that does get buried but by no means is it a significant fraction.

Coal seams and other such resources represents MILLIONS of years of life and death cycles in pre-historic forests. No amount of tree planting is even going to come close the replacing/sequesteruing the carbon we are extracting from the Earth in anything but geological time scales. It took millions of years to form fossil fuels through carbon sequestration, and equally, it would take millions of years to sequester it back.

This is also the reason why carbon has such a long average lifetime in our atmosphere. Lots of life forms absorb and use it, but those life forms die and decay and put most of it right back. The surface carbon cycle is almost a net-zero without external influences over any reasonable human time span (into the thousands of years). Going strictly by the numbers, to counteract our CO2 production on a temporary basis you would need to plant approximately 30 billion trees a year (30 GTon of carbon release/1 ton of carbon per tree).

I'm not saying that trees do not have good benefits. They most certainly do. However, as a carbon sequestration tool they are not a very good choice.
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I would now say Emilia is looking rather annular
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
north pole cam 1

watching ice melt



Keeper,than cam updates or stays at the same time?
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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
425 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Still strengthening...



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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
425 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
Derived from the 11July12pmGMT (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDaniel:
15.3n135.8w - 15.4n137.6w - 15.4n139.0w has been re-evaluated&altered
15.3n135.9w - 5.4n137.5w - 15.4n139.0w - 15.4n140.4w are now the most recent positions

Its vector had changed from 16.7mph(26.8km/h) West to 15.5mph(25km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had held steady at 35knots(40mph)65km/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 1005millibars to 1006millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Daniel's path...
HPV is Hanalei,Kauai :: OGG is Kahului,Maui :: HI25 is Naalehu,Hawaii

Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is where H.Daniel became a TS.Daniel again.
Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Daniel's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Daniel's 2 most recent positions
to its closest approach to Hawaii.
10July6pmGMT: TS.Daniel had been headed toward passing 313miles(504kilometres) South of Hawaii
(dot south of the straightline)
11July12amGMT: TS.Daniel had been headed toward passing 229miles(354kilometres) South
(dot north of the straightline)
11July6amGMT: TS.Daniel had been headed toward passing 288miles(464kilometres) South
(bottom half of the blob connected to the staightline)
11July12pmGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 280miles(451kilometres) South of Hawaii
(top half of blob connected to the straightline) in ~2days11hours from now

Copy&paste hpv, 14.38n155.243w, 15.709n155.597w, 14.735n155.335w, ogg, 18.911n155.681w, hi25, 15.4n133.0w-15.3n134.3w, 15.3n134.3w-15.3n135.9w, 15.3n135.9w-15.4n137.5w, 15.4n137.5w-15.4n139.0w, 15.4n139.0w-15.4n140.4w, 15.4n139.0w-14.845n155.373w, 18.911n155.681w-14.845n155.373w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
113 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
NORTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT.


* AT 111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARMONY...OR NEAR
HOLOPAW...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH
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Quoting stormygace:
Just curious - for the anthropogenic global warming crowd - how many of you have limited your breeding (especially to less than 2 offspring)? How many of you telecommute or videoconference attendence to work or academic/ continuing education conferences (instead pulling Al Gore's jet routine) instead of burning hydrocarbons for that"face time" at conferences (on AGW of all ironies)? How many of you forgo toting the whole overblown family to vacations far from home (especially to places that expend vast amounts of energy to heat/cool or entertain in artificial environments), expending lotsa hydrocarbons, rather than having stay-cations or bicyleable trips with your clutches?
How many of you really call for Hazmat cleanup when you break a twisty pc lightbulb and release that powdered mercury for those kids to inhale? What's your thermostat set at? Do you really have a garden, compost or vermiculture your non-meat kitchen waste? What are you going to do with that Prius when the battery doesn't hold its charge anymore? Just wondering. Big Al et al.certainly have demonstrated some sort of leadership by example, no?


i have one kid, have a telecommuting job, walk, ride a bike or the bus or the train pretty much everywhere and don't really 'vacation' more than once every 4 years or so. my car is 10 years old and will go another 10 years at least and is still a LEV. i compost my food scraps and work at a community garden teaching others how to grow their own food and reduce their wastes and water usage. my house stays warm in the summer and cold in the winter.

so, am i 'pure' enough to be allowed to believe that humans are influencing the climate, despite the fact that this fact has absolutely nothing at all to do with my own personal behaviours? the fact that the globe is warming has nothing to do with what 'crowd' you belong to. that's garbage tribalism.
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Quoting VINNY04:
i have a question for you, how do you get these pics? They are quite neat.
the World Wide Web

o by the way here is monthly graph of outside temps for the greenland summit region

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Quoting SouthTampa:


Have you been to a forest? Most tree materials go into the ground. Very little burn in forest fires. Where do you think all the oil comes from? Carbon that was buried a long time ago.

Trees are excellent at sequestering CO2 over a long period of time.


Not really-- when Xyrus and others refer to trapping carbon in the ground, they don't mean in the top layers of the soil; what has to happen is that carbon gets incorporated into the rock cycle. If you've been to a forest, you'll note that the dead trees, over time, lose nearly all of their volume during decomposition, as scavengers, fungi, bacteria, and the lot have their waa with the fallen timber. You'd also note, however, that the thickness of the soil profile does NOT increase in anything close to a 1:1 ratio, because it's not at all a closed system. That carbon is still able to be picked up by the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, or the biosphere. Anything in the soil can easily be disturbed or remain as part of an open-system.

In order to sequester carbon near the surface you need anoxic, stagnant conditions, such as a swamp. Most of the deposits that we're tapping into for the fossilized carbon they contain (oil, coal, etc) are from ancient environments of this type, not upland or temperate forests.
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The final CI# from UW-CIMSS for Emilia is up to 6.2/119.8 knots.

Eye just about fully cleared out.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Ok Yall im signing out. have a good one!
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304. yoboi
Quoting Grothar:
Yes, plants and trees absorb carbon. They also release carbon. While planting a trees is not bad, it will not solve all the problems. Many of the worlds forests have been severely disrupted.

However, there are some points not being considered in some arguments. How much carbon can a tree absorb and how much to too much.

If a tree begins to absorb a lot of carbon, it will likely grow faster and larger; the same with plants. This sounds good, but here are some of the problems with that logic.

1. If a tree grows faster than its genetic enginering, will it also be prone to diseases to which is has no resistance? Will certain insect popluation begin being attracted to these trees?

2. Will too much rain cause certain diseases>

3. Will plants that are growing faster begin to die faster? Will they also be prone to diseases/

While carbon is essential to plant growth, too much many not necessarily be better. Humans need vitamins to survive. If we take millions of units of a vitamin, it could kill us. The same with plants. Many of us have had plants that we watered too much and they died.

What has to always be considered are the consequences of one action over another. Our biossphere and ecology is still much of a mystery. We do not always know what the consequences are of removing just one element, or rather altering the elements. The effects may not be immediate, so we therefore tend not to pay too much attention.

Anyone who has been to school knows that the Earth changes all the time. We know there have been countless cycles by known causes and unknown causes. To state that humans have had no effect on the ecology or climate is just as incorrect as stating all changes are attibuted to humans. I do not know of any serious scientist who believes all the changes we are seeing are "solely" due to human intervention. Quite the contrary. However, if one person tells me the sky is falling, I smile. If two people tell me, I raise my eyebrows. If a third person tells me, I look up. If a fourth person tells me, I ask where I can find the information as to what might cause it.


so if i want my wood to grow faster and larger just increase the carbon intake???
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Quoting Xyrus2000:
Except the carbon doesn't stay locked up in tree's. Tree's are just an ecologically friendly way of kicking the can down the road.
Only partly true. Trees promote the production of soil, and deeper soils can hold carbon for a long time...long enough, in fact, to form fossil fuels in some cases. Consider that much of our coal comes from ancient forests.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that area is the port of nuuk
i have a question for you, how do you get these pics? They are quite neat.
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that area is the port of nuuk
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Quoting RipplinH2O:


Terrible flight getting there. Talk about looooooong...and I had a center seat
wow you had it bad then, then a flight back?????? ugh!
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Quoting BobWallace:


That's true, but carbon in a tree is carbon not in the atmosphere.

The more carbon we lock up in trees, the better it is for our heating up problem. Even if it is only temporary.

If we had the space and water to plant enough long-lived trees we could stop our warming problem even though there would still be the same amount of carbon above ground.

--

Leave the carbon underground. Do not awake the sleeping carbon monster.


Except the carbon doesn't stay locked up in tree's. Tree's are just an ecologically friendly way of kicking the can down the road.
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edit
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297. yoboi
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not sure the ice cap is 110,000 years old we only been there maybe 20 years


oh ok the past 20 yrs have temps there been rising are falling???
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


o_O

I can't tell if your simply not thinking things through or if you're a troll.
Im just stating my honest opinion like everyone else.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
Quoting VINNY04:
Funny. I still dont see how anyone could vist there even if they could fly there seeing that its mostly a big ball of gas. or am i wrong?


Terrible flight getting there. Talk about looooooong...and I had a center seat
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC095-097-111815-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0068.120711T1713Z-120711T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
113 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
NORTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT.

* AT 111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARMONY...OR NEAR
HOLOPAW...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
NARCOOSSEE...SAINT CLOUD...LAKE MARY JANE...WEST LAKE TOHO...
KISSIMMEE...EAST LAKE TOHO...CAMPBELL AND BUENA VENTURA LAKES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2820 8152 2851 8124 2818 8098 2802 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 128DEG 11KT 2817 8113

$$

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


o_O

I can't tell if your simply not thinking things through or if you're a troll.
Im not a troll i can tell you that.
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Quoting wxmod:
All the tree growing ground already has trees on it and is presently growing and dying and regrowing. Are you suggesting that somehow people can extend the natural range of forests? ...
Uh, Yes! Yes we can extend the natural range of forests, just as we can reduce the natural range of forests. That is part of the "land use" factor in climate modeling.

Just take a walk through the deep woods in New Hampshire for an example. You are likely to see large rows of rocks that were moved and piled up by farmers 1-2 or more centuries ago that were annually pushed up through the soil by frost heave. Those areas were once natural forests, then were deforested for agriculture, and have now turned back into forest as farming is no longer considered "economical" there.
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Quoting yoboi:


what is the normal temp there this time of yr????
not sure the ice cap is 110,000 years old we only been there maybe 20 years
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Quoting VINNY04:
just use the current trees for lumber. that will make room for more.


o_O

I can't tell if your simply not thinking things through or if you're a troll.
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Quoting yoboi:


what is the normal temp there this time of yr????
probably that temp. thats summer for them? wow, i like Florida more and more!
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, it doesn't.

A tree (depending on the species) can take about 2200 pouinds of CO2 out of the atmosphere temporarily. But it eventually goes back into the atmosphere, through loss of leaves, death, and decomposition.

Take a look at a graph of CO2 in the atmosphere. You'll notice that there are yearly minimums and maximums the coincide with the seasons. This is due to plant growth and death. The carbon cycle. Planting more trees doesn't remove the carbon. It just shifts it. Since it is still on the surface it will eventually be released back to the atmosphere. A long term net-zero.

The only way for a tree to remove CO2 permanently from the atmosphere is if you bury it after it grows. Otherwise, the CO2 will eventually make it's way back into the atmosphere.


Have you been to a forest? Most tree materials go into the ground. Very little burn in forest fires. Where do you think all the oil comes from? Carbon that was buried a long time ago.

Trees are excellent at sequestering CO2 over a long period of time.
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286. yoboi
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
summit camp greenland

Conditions
1 C 34 F
7.0 knots
358 degrees N


As of 07/11 15:15



what is the normal temp there this time of yr????
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summit camp greenland

Conditions
1 C 34 F
7.0 knots
358 degrees N


As of 07/11 15:15

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Quoting RipplinH2O:


It's been a few years but there is life. They're a bit odd though...drink their beer warm
Funny. I still dont see how anyone could vist there even if they could fly there seeing that its mostly a big ball of gas. or am i wrong?
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, it doesn't.

A tree (depending on the species) can take about 2200 pouinds of CO2 out of the atmosphere temporarily. But it eventually goes back into the atmosphere, through loss of leaves, death, and decomposition.

Take a look at a graph of CO2 in the atmosphere. You'll notice that there are yearly minimums and maximums the coincide with the seasons. This is due to plant growth and death. The carbon cycle. Planting more trees doesn't remove the carbon. It just shifts it. Since it is still on the surface it will eventually be released back to the atmosphere. A long term net-zero.

The only way for a tree to remove CO2 permanently from the atmosphere is if you bury it after it grows. Otherwise, the CO2 will eventually make it's way back into the atmosphere.


Carbon Man explains how trees absorb and retain CO2
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Quoting VINNY04:
exactly, this is all part of natures cycle to get rid of this stuff. people shouldnt worry about global warming but instead they shoud spend that money and time on more important things like fixing our goverment.


Yeah, we should totally focus on short-sighted subjective goals since that always turns out well. /sarcasm
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I've found through the years that the number of mentions of Al Gore's name in an internet article or blog post is almost always inversely proportional to the amount of intellectual honesty and/or scientific fact contained therein. This comment verifies that hypothesis.

But I'll bite off a piece of this stale and moldy bread anyway and remind everyone that any one person's failure to precisely toe the line where climate change mitigation is concerned in no way invalidates the fact that the climate is indeed changing, and very quickly. And for the record, the world isn't heating up because consumers are demanding the continued burning of fossil fuels; it's heating up because there are hundreds of billions--if not trillions--of dollars to be made in not switching to available (and could soon be available) alternatives, so those seeking to reap those billions have done, and continue to do, everything within their power to be sure no such switch is made.


Lots to do today and nothing looks too imminent in the tropics, so figured I would "quote" (repost) Neapolitan's post from earlier, because he hit the nail on the head
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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